clone52

Did you really enjoy the first 4 years of the last Twins rebuild, 1993 through 1997? Those rosters were filled with aging veterens and you guys who never ended up amounting to much. The only guys on those rosters who were actually part of the turnaround were Brad Radke, Matt Lawton and Eddie Guardado. If you really want it to mimic the 90's rebuild, we've got 4 more years to make it feel as fun as the last time.

It was hard to see them tacking on a $20M+ ace in any scenario. This move just moves the chances of that happening from almost 0 to even closer to 0.

Those are crazy prices to get someone who had an OPS on par with Eduardo Nunez and Chris Colabello last year.

It might be. If Nolasco bounces back like I think he will. If May progresses in year 2 like Gibson did. If Meyer has a good rookie season, the Twins could be pretty darn good. Longer shots are if Buxton/Sano/Rosaria come up ready to go, they could be even better. Look at this opening day lineup: Santana Dozier Mauer Vargas Arcia Hunter Plouffe Suzuki Schafer/Hicks Offensively, that would be a heck of a lineup. If guys like Buxton/Sano/Rosario are ready, they have a lot of of trade chips. Arcia, Vargas, Dozier and Plouffe could all be used to bring back something valuable without hurting the offense too much. If the stars align and Buxton could come up and man CF somewhat early, trading Arcia or Vargas could get a very nice addition to the roster and improve the defense without overly hurting the offense.

My original proposals were on the high end, but why would you be unwilling to make Berrios or Meyer the centerpiece of a trade for a Ace pitcher. The Twins are hoping one of them becomes an Ace, so why not use one of them to go out and get an Ace?

Its an interesting debate. I can't blame anyone for wanting to keep prospects. However, Hamels is only guarenteed $90 million over 4 years. If he pitches 400 innings in the last 2 years, he gets $24 million in a 5 year. If he's pitching that much in years 3 and 4, he probably is doing pretty darn good. Shields is 2 years older than Hamels. If you sign him, you will be paying him until he is 36 years old. If you have Hamels, you are only paying him until he is 33 or 34 years old. Hamels is the better pitcher and less risky because of age. Hamels does cost the Twins prospects, but the Twins just can't hoard all these prospects. Eventually they have to use them. They can't use them all in the majors either. At some point they will probably trade some prospects for major league upgrades. This is one of those times I think it would be worth looking into.

You're probably right. The reason the Twins might make that move is that it would give them a bonafide Ace for 4 or 5 years. Maybe Meyer or Berrios becomes that Ace, but if not, the Twins aren't going to have one.

Cole Hamels, not Cliff Lee.

What I'm kind of saying is that the Twins can probably afford to overpay, prospect wise, without mortgaging their farm system. Vargas probably isn't a good fit for them, though. Also, I think Hamels has a big no trade clause and doesn't want to pitch in the American League, so it probably can't happen. For sake of argument, lets say the Phillies are able to unload Ryan Howard and move Chase Utley to first base. Could they turn down a deal of Dozier, May, Berrios and Kepler? Would that be devastating to the Twins?

I know there have been rumblings with the Phillies trading Cole Hamels. I was curious what people thought of the Twins going after him. Its a given that the Twins aren't going to go after Lester or Scherzer. The front office won't want to commit to 6 or 7 years of them, and the price tag is probably going to be around $25 million. However, Hamels is the same age as Scherzer and Lester. He's a left hander. His stats are nearly as good as Lester and Scherzer. From the Twins perspective, he would only be a 4 year commitment at $22.5 million/year. He has a 5th year option that vests for $24 million if he pitches 400 innings in year 3 and 4. The cost is high, but not as high as Lester and Scherzer. The time commitment is 2 years less (maybe 3). That right there is a difference of $50 million committed to one player. So lets say the Twins decide the deal is right. What would people be willing to give up for a deal? The Phillies want 2 premier young players, plus another piece or 2. Would the Twins be willing to deal Buxton or Sano? Probably not, but there really isn't much else that I wouldn't throw into a trade? For the 2 premier young players, I consider 2 of the following: Dozier, Arcia, Vargas, May, Meyer, Santana, Gibson. They have enough depth in the minors that they could throw in enough pieces to make it work. Who would make this deal: Dozier, Vargas, May, Thorpe? I think I would. To get the deal done, i'd probably swap Stewart for Thorpe if they wanted it. That trade doesn't even hurt the Twins much. Short term, you put Escobar at 2B until Polanco is ready or maybe Rosario can go back there. Vargas looks like he's going to be a great player, but getting rid of him free's up the DH spot for Arcia or Josmil Pinto. That would create more holes in the OF, but they could work with that.

Pitching is where they needed the change. Hitting has been pretty darn good, so retaining Brunansky and maybe even Vavra makes a lot of sense. They got a new pitching coach. They got a bullpen coach (who was a Twins player, but never a Twins coach). Gene Glynn is a fresh face too. He has never been with the Twins major league staff and has only been with the minor league staff a short time. Honestly, it might have been a dumb move to not retain Brunansky as hitting coach.

I've always said, the best part about Buehrle is that he would just be a temporary guy. If he pans out, great. If he gets old and terrible, they aren't stuck with him.

If they could get him on a 1 year deal, it wouldn't be so bad. The OF of the future hopefully isn't far away (Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Arcia, Brett-Walker, Harrison). Do you really want to clog up the outfield with a guy on a 3 year contract? Maybe there is a better option for a guy on a 1 or maybe 2 year contract.

Buehrle and Lester are the same amount of money. Buehrle is 19 million. Lester is going to be 10 times that amount.

No need to make any changes then. Keep Santana in CF and make Schafer the everyday left fielder. Honestly, though, an outfield of Hunter in LF, Schafer in CF and Arcia in RF is BETTER than last year. It might not be a ton better, but it would be better. Who on last year's coaching staff was a guy who could help out the outfielders based on past experience? Was there anyone? Having Hunter around could improve a guy like Arcia's defense beyond what any of us can even see. If guys were having trouble learning what angles to take, how to read balls on bats and that type of stuff, maybe Molitor realized the coaching staff didn't have anyone who could get through to the young guys. If Molitor believes adding Hunter helps in this area, then maybe we should let the new manager have his shot. Shoot, maybe Hunter doesn't play every game and becomes the best bench player the Twins have had in awhile. Anyone who could compare this to signing Kubel or Bartlett is crazy. At the very least, Hunter is not washed up offensively. Perhaps this opens up the possibility of using Vargas as a trade chip (maybe as the centerpiece of for my dream trade to get Cole Hamels).

Well, first off, maybe they platoon Hunter with Arcia in right field. Hunter against the lefties and Arcia against teh righties. That improves the RF defense for 1/3 of the games. Next, Hunter is probably going to get 1 day off a week. That means roughly 50% of the year, he is improving the outfield defense (or not playing). That means 50% of the time he would be playing LF. Would he be that much worse than what we put out their last year? Its not like Willingham was a gold glover. I don't know about all the sabremetric defensive ratings, but how close would he be to that?

Who was mentoring our outfielders last year? No one was really there to teach guys like Arcia, Hicks, Santana the ropes in the outfield. I don't know that their was anyone on the coaching staff who was a great mentor for outfielders either. Sure, Torii's defense is sub par nowadays, but thats physical limitations, not mental. Hopefully some of his mental stuff can rub off on our young guys (which hopefully include Buxton and Rosario sometime next year)

I think May is going to be the 4th starter you want.

Look, if May goes through Spring Training as a train wreck unable to throw strikes, then sure, don't put him in the rotation. But if he pitches like he did in September, then in my opinion, it should take a monstrous effort by another guy to oust him. If he strikes out 1 per inning and only walks 3 or 4 per nine innings, then in no way do I want Pelfrey starting over him. I also don't want Milone starting over him, even if Milone has a huge spring training. I'd rather give May a couple months to see if he can continue his improvement from September. If Alex Meyer dominates spring training and figures out his control, then i could jump him ahead of May if May really struggles. I wouldn't call May's September sub par, either. If he kept those numbers up for an entire season, his K rate would be top 10 in all of baseball, his K/BB would be top 25.

Buehrle would be a different situation than Pavano or Pelfrey. When the Twins resigned Pavano, he was coming off of 2 very good seasons, he was signed for a reasonable price and there weren't high end minor league pitchers in the Twins system he was blocking. When the Twins resigned Pelfrey last year, he was cheap and the minor league pitchers he could have blocked were Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell and Yohan Pino. Not the cream of the crop. This year, if they sign a free agent pitcher, it will block either May or Meyer. I think May will be a starter and they'll put Meyer in the bullpen to start, but maybe the Twins will give up on May as a starter after 10 starts like some fans seem to want to. I like the idea of 1 year of Buehle. If he gets old, they are only stuck with him for one year. If he is great and the young guys aren't good, maybe they can resign him. If he is great, but Meyer and May also show they are ready for the rotation, the Twins won't feel the need to resign him. If you decide to sign a younger guy, I see bigger risks and bigger problems. If you take Masterson, he's 6 years younger than Buehrle. You probably sign him for 3 or 4 years at $10/year. But, do you get the good Masterson from 2011 and 2013, or the bad Masterson from 2012 and 2014. If you get the good guy for 3 or 4 years, great. If you get the bad guy for 3 or 4 years, well crap. You have him locking up a rotation spot for 3 or 4 years, blocking May, Meyer, Rogers, Berrios, Stewart. Plus you are eating up $10M in salary each year. Sure, Buehrle would eat up more salary in year 1, but no salary after that. Honestly, I think their long-term starting pitcher try this year is just year 2 of Nolasco. Don't double down on that mistake. If they sign a free agent, who would you be hoping for? Maybe I missed someone. I've given up hope on Lester/Scherzer because I don't think the Twins will ever commit to the years/dollars they will get. I would love to see them trade for Cole Hamels, though. He's a little cheaper than those guys ($22M) would be an only has 4 more years guarenteed on his contract.

I did get my names mixed up in one spot, but I did post May's numbers from August and September. Both months had five starts. His numbers clearly improved. His residual numbers were fantastic. Unless he bombs in spring training, he should definitely get a rotation spot, unless the Twins shock everyone and sign Lester and Masterson, or 2 guys to take rotation spots. May should definitely get a rotation spot over Meyer (unless something crazy happens in spring training). Meyer only pitched 130 innings last year, so if he pitches decent in spring training, I believe he should be up with Minnesota, but should start the season in the bullpen. Give him a little time there, then move him to the rotation.

If this were last year and the choice was 1 year of Buehrle for $19M or Nolasco for 4/52, what would the right choice be? If you decide you must add a "veteran pitcher" to the staff, there are really 4 options. 1) Sign an ace to a 6 or 7 year deal for 20-25 million a year. The Twins won't do this. 2) Sign a mid rotation starter to a t-5 year deal at 10-15 per year. This is what the Twins did last year with Nolasco and it burned them. 3) Take a flyer on a rebound guy like Hughes. Twins got lucky last year, could again. 4) Trade for an aging veteran like Buehle. I like option 4. Sure, they might overpay woefully for one year if he flames out, but he's not tying up a rotation spot down the line.

I think May is a lock for sure, to at least get 2-3 months worth of starts to show if he is ready. If he's a disaster for 2 or 3 months, then he may get sent down. He absolutely showed something in his September performance. You'd have to be blind not to see it. Meyer August: 0 quality starts, 10.42 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 6.6 BB/9, 13.2 H/9 Meyer Sept: 2 quality starts, 6.08 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 9.8 H/9 Significant improvement in every area and he deserves every opportunity to see if he can continue that movement. If you remove his 1 bad start in September, his ERA in his other 4 starts was 4.50. I am really excited for Alex Meyer and can't wait to see him pitch, but giving Meyer the starting spot at the expense of May is a terrible idea. Meyer pitched a limited number of innings last year. He can't pitch 200 next year. If he starts the season in the rotation next year and dominates, he won't be able to pitch the entire year. Its a far better idea to have him start in the bullpen, maybe for half a season or a full season, then if/when a rotation spot opens, he can fill it. Plus, it allows you to see if he can get big league hitters out, and builds his confidence in short bursts. Its not a bad path for a pitcher. Pitchers who started in the bullpen and moved to the rotation. Johan Santana Adam Wainwright Chris Sale Garrett Richards Zach Greinke (started games in 2004, struggled starting in 2005, spent 2006 in the minors), relieved in 2007 and turned into an Ace in 2008) Max Scherzer David Price (more of a need for a playoff chase, but still) Mark Buehrle

Buhrle would be a 1 year expensive mess who is wiped off the books in 2016. I actually like the idea. You're never going through a season without starting pitchers getting injured. Right now the Twins have this. Hughes Nolasco Gibson May Meyer Milone Pelfrey Thats 7 starters. No one wants Pelfrey to be in the mix, so that really means 6. Milone is iffy. If the Twins refuse to commit to 6 or 7 years to an ace, the might be better off spending $19 million for 1 year of Buerhle than committing $10 million for 4 years to a riskier pitcher like Nolasco. You start the year with this rotation. Hughes Buehrle Gibson Nolasco May Meyer starts the year in the bull pen, hopefully to keep his innings down and gain confidence against big league hitters. Santana started in the pen. Wainwright started in the bull pen. Milone either starts in AAA or in the bull pen. By the end of the year, Mayer and Milone will probably have their chances to be a starter. You might also get down to Berrios or Rogers. If Nolasco doesn't bounce back, they will find he has another injury and that will get Meyer into the rotation. If May really struggles, you could see him swapped out. If the Twins get Buerhle and he does block a prospect like Meyer, it would mean the Twins had a very good year, in my opinion. It would mean May was a solid starter, Nolasco bounced back to become a solid starter and the rotation stayed healthy all season.

I don't think the Twins should do much in free agency this offseason. I don't think Jon Lester is a good idea. He's probably going to demand a 7 or 8 year deal. Committing that much money on a pitcher into his late 30's is a bad idea. People complain about Mauer's contract. Lester's likely would look much worse a few years down the line. Greinke is got a 6/159 contract (26.5). Hamels has a 7/153 contract (21.8). Cliff Lee has basically a 6/144 (24). Sabathia has an 8/182 (22.8). Felix is 7/175 (25). All of them except Cliff Lee were younger than Lester when they signed those contracts. If they could get Lester for $25/per and only 4years, go for it, but I think its going to take $25/per and 7 or 8 years to do it. Maybe there are other free agent pitchers, but you are likely looking at a risk like Nolasco. Don't worry about CF this year. Perhaps buxton will be ready, or Schafer could fill the void until he is. If you can sign a good defense, decent hitter to play OF, that might be worth it, but nothing more than a 2 year contract. LF looks like a gaping hole right now, so maybe sign a short term fill in. However, they need to decide what is going on with Plouffe/Sano before they really go down that road. They might also consider what they want to do with Mauer/Vargas/Arcia. Could they move Mauer to LF, Vargas to 1B and Arcia to DH? In my opinion, they missed a golden opportunity to trade for David Price. They could have had him for 2014 and 2015, which would have been enough of a bridge to see if their minor league was going to produce quality starting pitchers. I also think they should make some trades for the missing pieces. They have a glut of guys who probably should end up at DH (Arcia, Vargas, Pinto). Could they package one of them with some minor league talent and get a youngish corner outfielder. As for starting pitching, I think they maybe should also look to trades. I know its never going to happen, but if they could get a guy like Garrett Richards, that would be awesome. He would be worth giving up a couple of top prospects.