clone52
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Everything posted by clone52
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Probably, but the Tigers didn't give up any prospect better than what was on that list.
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So, apparently the Tigers are listening to offers on their possible free agents, including David Price and Soria. Obviously, both of these guys would be Rentals for the Twins, but I think they would be enough to boost the Twins to the playoffs this year while not blocking prospects later on. The Tigers won't resign them. Their owner is old as dirt and wouldn't want to wait for compensation picks to develop. An inter-division trade isn't a big deal knowing that Price would not resign with the Twins. What would you give up? The Tigers gave up a good but not great CF, a good but not great LHP and a single A SS for 1.5 years of Price. They would probably accept a slightly smaller return for him now. Would you do Rosario, Stewart, Niko Goodrum for Price and Soria. Would you thrown in Alex Meyer? I'd be awfully tempted to.
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They Couldn’t. Could They…?
clone52 replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Why do you think Hawkins would be available cheap from the Jays? Why would they take him in the Tulo trade unless they wanted to use him to bolster their own bull pen.- 47 replies
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- james shields
- joaquin benoit
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They Couldn’t. Could They…?
clone52 replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Obviously Benoit would be a rental type player, but could be useful this year. Shields should be decent for 3 years and honestly, spending money on Shields would feel a whole lot better than spending money on Nolasco (although you know he'd probably be lights out in San Diego and finish 5th in the 2016 NL Cy Young voting). How about Benoit/Shields/Norris for Nolasco/whatever other prospects are needed.to get the deal done. If they could get Norris in return, I think we'd all feel better about the trade. How about Benoit/Shields/Norris for Nolasco/Fryer/Meyer/Stewart/Kepler? I guess if it were me, I'd go for it, but I'd understand if people didn't want to give up prospects like that. Would the Padres go for that? I don't know what positions they are looking for. I don't think losing Meyer, Stewart and Kepler would be a crippling blow to the future of the organization.- 47 replies
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- james shields
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Diamond In The Dugout: Molitor Gets It
clone52 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Molitor wasn't looking for the play to be overturned. He was saying that the ump should have asked the 3rd base up before calling it a strike. Later in the game, the ump nearly rung up Sano, but before he did, asked for help from the 1st base ump who correctly said it was a check swing and Sano got a walk. They still lost, but had Molitor not argued the first call, Sano would have been called out later in the game. -
I always forget that. Probably may, but if Pelfrey sticks around and is decent it could be him, especially if May becomes a lockdown bullpen guy. If May shows that he could be a stud 7th or 8th inning guy and Pelfrey doesn't completely flop, I'd throw Pelfrey in the rotation. How great would it be to have the 7th through 9th inning locked up if May and Fien could do that?
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First-Half Most Improved Twins
clone52 replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I actually think May's improvement started last year. In his final 7 starts for the Twins, his walk rate was just 2.2/9 innings. -
I think #1 is all they need to and should go for this year. They can get some bullpen help without gauging the farm system. If they have a catcher upgrade fall into their laps, then go for it, but I wouldn't trade much for it. Suzuki is hitting .276 in July, so maybe he can be a .250 hitter the rest of the way, which isn't bad. I just don't see any SS options out there that I'd want. Tulowitzki is pricey and an injury risk. I wouldn't want to give up the prospects needed to get him with that risk. I doubt Boston would trade Bogaerts and if the did, the prospect price would be high. The guys out there who would be nice are very unlikely to be traded, or not that much of an upgrade. Santana had a good week, where he looked like Santana from last year. Maybe you ride him the rest of July and see if he's turned a corner. If not, you send Santana down to AAA, make Escobar your everyday SS, Nunez your backup infielder and call up Arcia to give you pop of the bench. I agree that you fix your bench from withing. When Buxton is healthy, you send him to Rehab in AAA. If Rosario and Hicks are still playing well, you leave Buxton in AAA until the end of August, then you setup your playoff roster with Rosario, Hunter, Hicks and Buxton as your OF, unless Buxton really struggles in AAA. Robinson either doesn't make the post-season roster or you keep him and go to 11 pitchers. IMO, you go with 11 pitchers and have Robinson or Santana fill out your roster. The following is not a bad playoff lineup: Dozier Hunter Mauer Sano Plouffe Rosario Hicks Suzuki Escobar With the following on the bench Fryar Arcia Nunez Buxton Santana/Robinson Rotation Gibson Milone Hughes Santana Bullpen Perkins Fien Boyer (get him rested up, or replace him if he struggles in July/Auguest) O'Rourke (or a better option, maybe Berrios) May Pelfrey (unless they have real relievers doing well) Graham (or a better option, but I say give him some high leverage opportunities)
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I'm content with a guy who is making contact far more often than he has the last 2 years and is hitting for a reasonable .250 average despite a low BABIP. He's made significant progress this year and it might just be a blip on the radar, but he could be starting to live up to the potential of his talent, and if he is, an outfield of Hicks, Buxton and Rosario would make pitchers drool for the next 4-5 years.
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Before today's game, he is 73rd in K rate out of 323 MLB players with 100 or more plate appearances. That is way above average.
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When you go from being one of the worst players in the league for just making contact to an above average contact hitter, thats a big change and should be a sign that you shouldn't give up on a guy just yet. Especially considering that as a floor, Hicks would make a fantastic 4th outfielder (pinch running, defensive replacement).
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Except there is evidence. His K% is way, way down this year.
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I really like the idea of Rosario, Hicks and and Buxton in the same outfield. I think it would help the team tremendously. Assuming Buxton ends up being a .275+ hitter, our offense should be okay. Right now, Hicks, SS and C are kind of black holes offensively, but I really only think you need to fix 1 of those 3. You can live with 2 like that. Plus, Hicks is improving. The numbers say so. First of, I'm very encouraged by him showing the willingness to overhaul his approach at the plate. The changes he made as a left handed hitter show me a willingness to work. As for the numbers, in 2013, he struck out once every 3.7 plate appearances. In 2014, he struck out once every 4.0 plate appearances. This year, he struck out once every 6.7 appearances. That is a huge improvement. For comparison, Joe Mauer has struck out once every 8.3 PAs for his career (6.0 PAs this year), Brian Dozier has struck out once every 5.0 PAs this year. Plouffe is once every 5.6 PAs. Hunter is 6.24 PAs. Hicks has gone from poor to above league average. Currently he is 73rd out of 337 players with 100 or more PAs. His batting average is as high as its ever been, even though his BABIP is way below league average and near his career low. If his BABIP was around .275, his Batting Average would be .254 and if his BABIP was around .300 (like last year), he'd Batting Average would be .274. The only thing down for him this year is walks.
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How about Ricky Nolasco for Ryan Howard and cash to make the money even? Both players have negative trade value. Ricky could rebound and have some upside for Philly in the NL and it gets Howard off the Phillies. Twins rid themselves of the Ricky headache, free up a rotation spot for Milone/Santana now and Meyer/Berrios or any of the other "close" minor leaguers. Twins take on Howard who either DH's or the get rid of him. Or, if the Twins want to take on all of Howards salary, maybe they get a low prospect or 2 from the Phillies to sweeten the deal. This really only makes sense if the Twins consider Ricky dead weight and no value. Personally, I think he is rebounding and will be a useful contributor.
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Seriously, what do we do with Plouffe once Sano gets called up?
clone52 replied to kydoty's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Houston isn't trading Correa. That'd be like offering the Twins prospects for Buxton. -
Questioning Hicks' character is pretty low. You can question his maturity, but to question his character is pathetic. It does seem like he is maturing, though. The fact that he is putting in the work and made a massive adjustment to his left handed batting approach tells me that he's trying to get better and not just go through the motions. If he has turned a corner, can you imagine the pitchers salivating at the thought of a Rosario, Buxton, Hicks outfield next year?
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Philly might balk at that and maybe the Twins shouldn't look at it, but honestly, thats a pretty good deal from the Philies side of things. If you are convinced Hamels will be an ace for the next 3-4 years, I think you'd seriously have to consider Hamels for Nolasco, Sano and any pitching prospect other than Berrios. The Phillies would like to dump Ryan Howard as well, so maybe throw him in. Hamels, Howard and $30 million Nolasco, Sano, Kepler, Stewart
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Lets say the Twins are in 1st place in July and looking the part of a playoff team. What is the one piece the team is definitely missing for the playoffs? A bonafide Ace SP. What if the Tigers made David Price available for a 1 year rental? What if the Red Sox were crumbling and made Buchholz available (a very team friendly contract)? How about Cueto for a 2015? What if the Pirates didn't think they could resign Gerrit Cole and made him available? What if the Rays made Chris Archer available? (Berrios and Rosario?)
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Didn't work out for the A's, but still pending on how big of a loss Addison Russell is/was. The A's are a great example example of both sides of it. Last year they tried to make a big trade to win now and it didn't work out. For the last 15 years, they've been the "moneyball" team. Get rid of higher priced veterans, stockpile prospects with low cost and years of control. What has that gotten them? Not a single championship.
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I would say SS is a position of strength and depth. You've got Santana there now. Escobar could easily be the everyday SS. If both of those guys got hurt/weren't there, Polanco could probably take over and be adequate as he built on the job. Personally, I would say Santana and Polanco should be available for the right trade (one of the other, not both of them). As amazing as it sounds, SP depth is a real strength right now. Gibson is locked into the rotation. Hughes is locked into the rotation. Neither of those guys is getting traded (Unless its Gibson as part of a deal for a real SP upgrade). Santana will get his shot at the rotation. Nolasco has been good enough to stay in the rotation (3.77 ERA, 7.8 K/9 since his injury). Pelfrey has been great. May has been okay (really only 2 bad starts skewing his numbers). Milone deserves a spot in a rotation. I think anyone would trade Nolasco for almost anything. If they could trade him and get someone to eat his salary, that would be wonderful. If I were the Twins, I'd rather keep him than may more than 50% of his salary in a trade. I would trade Pelfrey if you could get a piece that would help, even if it was just bullpen help. I don't think the Twins would resign him next year. I even think the Twins could use May/Milone/Meyer/Berrios as trade bait, for an impact trade.
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You bring up 1 example of a team trading a prospect to try and contend and getting burned. What about all the times a team has made that trade and won the World Series, or the times the team traded that prospect and the prospect turned out to be a bust. In 2013, the Red Sox traded for Jake Peavy and won the World Series. They traded away Jose Iglesias (.811 OPS as a SS this year). Almost every World Series champion has made a trade or 2 to pick up the pieces they needed to win the World Series. You had to go back to 1987 to find an example where a team got burned. I think its too early to say Berrios is untouchable becuase he might turn out to be Hall of Famer John Smotlz.
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Maybe this is just me, but I think the Twins minor league system has a plethora of mid-tier prospects and there is absolutely no way they should be looking to trade for more mid-tier depth. If anything, they should trade away some of that depth if they can contend this year. I wouldn't trade Plouffe unless he was part of a package that go you a guy that is going to help right now. For instance, if the Phillies wanted Plouffe and he could be the centerpiece of a trade for Hamels (keeping Sano and Buxton off the table), I'd jump at it. I wouldn't trade Escobar for anything, unless it was part of an All Star type trade. Escobar gives you so much flexibility. It allows them to trade Plouffe for the right deal and Escobar can fill in until Sano is ready. It allows them to trade Santana if he can be a piece of a key trade and Escobar can be the everyday SS until Polanco is ready. Fien is tradeable, but I'd only trade him if the Twins fall out of contention. Given the Twins minor league depth, I'd actually be more inclined to trade a mid-tier prospect for bullpen help if the Twins stay in contention. I wouldn't trade Gibson at all (unless it brought in a top-tier starting pitcher).
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I think Hamels has a no trade clause, but maybe he'd waive it to play for a contender. This is just me, but I would trade Sano (not Buxton), for Hamels. I'd offer Sano, Kepler (a 1B replacement for Howard) and their choice of Milone/May/Meyer/Pelfrey for Hamels.
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Hey, at least he lowered his season ERA. He's got that going for him, which is nice.
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I wouldn't count on Rosario getting sent down when Arcia gets healthy. If Rosario does okay and Vargas continues to struggle, the might send Vargas down for awhile. Until Vargas turns things around, Rosario in Left and Arcia at DH may be better than Arcia in Left and Vargas at DH. You could also see Schafer sent packing if Rosario does well.

