Dman
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Everything posted by Dman
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It looks like with arms they got they might be setting themselves up to get rid of Pablo or Ryan or both next year if they don't make it to the playoffs. Maybe the offseason. Who knows.
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My guess is one of Larnach or Wallner are going to Houston which is likely why they targeted Outman. Unless Houston wants Outman?
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It looks like new ownership will get to build this team from the bottom up. There isn't much left for star power. Those young bats in the Minor's need to come through.
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Correa just traded. Burning things down?
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Man I hope I am going to be very wrong about these deals or they have just thrown away a lot talent for nothing.
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I hope he is back to his 2023 self or this FO is gonna get crucified on this one. He is 28 with a very high K rate. He isn't getting better at this point. You gave away 3 years of a setup closer type arm for that? Man teams have to be lining up to do deals with the Twins. If they can rob them like this..
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Friedman is one of the best. He runs circles around our clown show. They should have kept Stewart.
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That .150 batting average aught to fit right in with this team. He has good speed, but with a pretty solid 35% k rate this doesn't seem that great to me. I think I would rather have Stewart back.
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They'll love him once they watch him play.
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I thought the Bader signing was going to be a mistake especially when he came up to bat. I thought it was a nothing move. Couldn't have been more wrong. Absolutely loved watching the hustle, the great plays in the field, Hitting for power and just finding ways to get on base. Guy always looked like his head was in the game and he was a great teammate. I will miss him. Thank you Mr. Bader for a great season and the amazing plays you make in the filed. I know the Twins like Mendez and likely believe in the power, but since they are getting rid of arms it would be nice to get some arms back. I don't hate the return it is about what you would expect for Bader. I do like the 16 year old arm better though. With Castellanos already pitching well in the DSL the Twins are building up some interesting young arms for the future. I think it is a sneaky good move. Hoping they both work out.
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I think he is the prize of what's left. With so many teams interested I guessing the bidding keeps going up. Might be a while as they might as well try and milk it for what they can get.
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Dodgers pen is so bad would Stewart be their closer? I think this a good get for LA regardless of price.
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Agreed it's a good get and Twins must be bullish Mendez's power potential. With Villario the Twins are sneakily adding some really good young arms at those lower levels. It will take time but should pay big dividends if they make it.
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Yeah I have been eating crow for while now on Bader. I expected very little and he ended up being one of my favorite guys to watch.
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I like Villario pick best. He has a long way to go, but upside is high. Hitter has a high floor but lower ceiling IMO. If he can hit the ball in the air more and gain some power that could change things. Still anything for a rental is better than nothing. He's number 12 so that's pretty good for Bader. I would have preferred an arm to a bat though at 12.
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I don't know how fixable Abel is. If there is one thing the Twins staff isn't that good at it is fixing control. I'm looking mainly at relievers but they had issues with Cano, Megil, Hamilton, and others. Cano went on to pitch very effectively once moved to the Orioles. Megil was an All Star this year with the Brewers. Hamilton pitched well for the Yankee's. They all had control problems with the Twins. The Twins couldn't get any of those guys going and other teams did. Maybe Abel is close enough and it is just lefties to worry about. I hope that is the case. Still I don't have much trust in this staff to fix pitchers with control issues. Maybe they could steal a pitching coach from the Brewers or something? I am hoping for the best but I don't see see a great track record of success here.
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It's almost lunch time let's get these trades going. I thought once Suarez was off the board things might get going with position players, but pretty quiet. Looks like more pressure needs to build before players come off the board.
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Yeah if they will do Larnach in that deal I could see it happening that way. Houston could send some relief arms back the Twins way from their prospect pool to even things out a bit. That nets them Correa and the Twins get like 24M or so back per year to spend on other needs. I could see something like that working. I can't see the Twins adding anymore money than that though and Houston doesn't seem to value Correa as 25M per year player. So not sure they go for that.
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Not sure, but I know they are looking a lefty bat and Larnach has good splits against righties. It could be him, but it could be anyone hard to say. I just think they are looking for immediate help so Larnach or Wallner most likely, but that is guess work on my part.
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MLB Trade rumors on supposed deal for Correa: "July 31: Nightengale reports that the talks between the two clubs are “all but dead,” adding that Houston asked Minnesota to pay “about $50MM” of the $102.5MM remaining in Correa’s contract and also asked for an outfielder to be included in the deal. Nightengale adds that the Twins rejected that offer and “aren’t budging” from that position. Rome reports (alongside The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal) that talks between the sides have continued despite both sides downplaying the likelihood of a trade." If that was the "true" offer that has to be incredibly embarrassing for Correa. They see him as so bad that they want the Twins to pay half his salary and include an outfielder in the deal. Even his old team doesn't want him back. Ouch. I can't believe that could be a real proposal as the Twins would be paying Houston as much for him to play in Houston as the Twins would pay for him to not play for them. That would make this a very unserious proposal IMO. Correa is going to heat up with the bat. He might not be worth 30M but he is way, way better than that deal. If that's the best they've got they should just stop already. I could see that Twins doing like maybe 7M per year if the Houston adds a prospect to the deal not the other way around. That would be the best I could see Twins ever doing. but we'll see.
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Good point on age. He is only 23 which is pretty young yet. There is time. I hope they give him lot's of chances this year to work on his stuff at the MLB level since he appears to have mastered AAA. Experience is the best teacher. Hopefully he finds what he needs to propel him forward. I am rooting for him. Would love to have another mid rotation starter for next year
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Yeah he looks great at AAA but a lot of guys do. He did have some success at the MLB level but a lot of guys do. Consistency is the difference maker. He has great stuff so does Raya and he gets shelled too even at AAA. There is a lot to like about Abel especially the plus pitches but you have to place it where they can't barrel it easily and that takes control. We'll see if he has it. Hey I am hoping he does and obviously the Twins think he will and they have watched him. I haven't even seen him pitch just box scores and prospect list stats. You don't have to convince me that he could be good, the stuff is there. I just think there is risk in the profile and am worried he won't get to mid rotation starter level. So many pitchers have good stuff but can't control it well enough. It's just hard to "bank" on it happening when you see so many fail to master it.
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Risk runs both ways for sure and every arm is a pitch away from injury. Still Duran's velo being down seems like a misnomer to me. Yeah he throws those 102 103 mile an hour heaters, but they miss more often than they hit and his results this year say he is elite pretty much every where. Gets tons of ground balls, Keeps the ball in the park and has a good K rate. So the results look great with his "declining velo". Still I'd say the risk with Duran is far less than a pitcher with 5 something ERA at the MLB level and an 18 year old catcher with chase issues and a long way to go. To your point yes there is risk either way, but the degree has to taken into account as well. IMO there is far more risk for the Twins than the Phillies in this deal.
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That is one way to look at it, but you aren't mentioning any of the risks they are taking. The pitcher they took has known control problems and if he walks too many guys he won't be a starter he will be a pen arm. He also got shelled in his last few MLB starts because of control problems. The catcher is a fairly long ways away and a free swinger. That might work at the lower levels, but once he hits AA where they throw more breaking stuff he'll K all the time. So to counter your statement they could get very little or nothing out of this deal as well. We won't know the outcomes for a while. Obviously I do hope for the best outcomes, but very few players hit their actual ceilings so the odds are low that we got a #1 starter or elite catcher. The Twins think they will hit on both players and that's why they did the deal. They think the risk is acceptable. Even though they know a lot more than I do they still are often wrong about players. So we'll see. Obviously hoping for the best now that the deal is done, but there is plenty of risk in this deal.
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Not many if any 18 year old's at high A except Tait. I wasn't thrilled with getting him initially but after sleeping on it and reading more he could be a really good get. I just have a horrible bias when it comes to 18 year old/high school level catchers and how they get bumped up prospect lists only to fall out. Even draft guru's note that high school catcher's from the draft don't work out that often. At any rate the current contact and exit velocities bode well for his offensive upside but the chase rates will make it very hard for him to succeed as he moves up. So hopefully the Twins can help him some there. Defensively the 30% caught steeling rate is impressive for an 18 year old at the pro level. I am less concerned with framing as I believe the auto K zone is coming so not a large issue IMO. There is a lot to like in his profile right now and catcher is a key position. So he should help the team in the future. Key point being future. I was hoping for someone close to helping next years team, but this is still a good get. I like both catchers the Twins got in trade. They should be set there for a while now with suddenly great depth with Cardenas at AAA, Diaw at high A but ready for AA. Tait at high A and Jimenez ready for A ball. Having a top 100 catcher in Tait is a nice feather in the cap for the system. I am glad the Twins have strengthened a system weakness and hopefully Tait is the best of the bunch.
