Dman

IMO Chacin is the most likely to make it. There will be room on the 40 man for a starting pitcher and we are short on arms to start the year. Unless he looks horrible or the Twins find someone better I think he takes that last spot. Outside chance to make it for me would be Thielbar and Hardy. They are both Lefty arms with bounce back potential. Personally I think they only make it to the 40 man if there are injuries but they have a shot if they pitch well this spring. Everyone else seems like a long shot to me.

To be honest it was something that had crossed my mind as well but after looking into it, it didn't seem to be much of an issue. I thought you made a good point and one I hadn't considered about the playoff pitchers we will face. That does make it more of an issue when and if we get to that level but it does seem minimal compared to our potential pitching issues. In the end I think there is a healthy balance in this lineup and we might have lefties on the way by the end of this year if things go well on the farm for the top prospects.

I have to say it is interesting to me how this board felt about Harper and that the team that won the World Series last year was the high bidder to add his services to their team, lol. For not belonging in a pen with World series aspirations the Nats seem to think otherwise. Not that a 9th round pick is a high price to pay but still interesting how different perceptions can be about players and how they can help a team.

Yeah not a lot of 9th rounders make it and his college numbers don't look very impressive but still there was enough there for him to get picked in the top 300 last year. He seems to fit the mold the Twins have been using for later round pitcher picks. They appear to be ignoring stats and looking for certain physical traits as well as how well guys throw certain pitches. Won't know how that turns out for a bit yet but I'm thinking Ober, Sammons and Windor as examples. There are others that have already failed or look like they won't make it but with numbers odds of finding diamonds in the rough are better. Windor was a small school guy with not great numbers who dominated A ball last year. So maybe this is another gamble in that direction. No guarantee it works out but at least we have a lottery ticket instead of nothing at all. Here's hoping the Scouts and FO identified something in McMahon that makes them think he can make it.

I was hoping they could manage a trade and they did it! For a guy on an MILB invite last year who helped the MLB pen early in the season we get a guy we can look at for four more years and hopefully he makes it all the way. Definitely better than letting Harper go for nothing. Good job FO.

So finally MLB trade rumors got it right and realized the Comp pick is protected so you are indeed correct we lose our 3rd round pick which is nice because that means we pick at 67 instead of 101 allowing us to pick 34 spots earlier and likely gaining extra cash to spend as well. Sorry I argued your point and have to admit I was confused about a lot of information out there. https://www.mlb.com/draft/2020/order

Yeah you look at what he was able to do last year and it was better than a lot of MLB relievers. His stuff is far from elite but you would think he would be worth a GCL or short season guy with upside. Not a top 30 guy or anything just a little something to make sure whatever team wants him can get him. I mean on Fangraphs he was number 57 in WAR for relievers right next to Trevor May. I know he doesn't have the same stuff as May but he should have some value even for a good team.

Trade rumors says it is indeed Harper so we have our answer. I wonder if they can work a trade and get a lottery ticket.

Gordon always had a slight build and it was always a bit of concern if he would grow into a larger frame. The Twins obviously thought he would and his hit tool, athleticism and makeup were all good as well as bloodlines. So far the projection just hasn't worked out that well IMO. I am still hoping he can fill out a bit more and find some power. I still believe in his hit tool although Fangraphs seems skeptical and they would know more than I do. I still think he can fill out more and regain that prospect status if not he looks like a solid utility guy but that is a tough outcome considering he was taken so high. I agree with you that he still could be a valuable piece for this team as a bench player or hopefully starter at some point. I just think it is going to take a bit longer for him to get there.

I would like to know that answer to that question as well. I know that even though Pineda is on the 40 he is also on the restricted list so doesn't count against the 40 man but with the Donaldson signing I thought they had to take someone off. Does Hill not count against the 40 man?

Yeah what Bleday did in High A compared to Larnach makes his list a joke. He gives Bleday a 60 power rating and Larnach 50 and Larnach completely outslugged him this year. Yeah I get it is all about potential but they are the same age and Larnach is just better. Hey he can decide potential any way he wants but the list looks biased to me. Given what I have seen the top 10 doesn't really mean much just something to put together and talk about. Winning these lists is nice but doesn't mean much as Garver and Arraez say Hello. They were never on these lists and Garver was one of the best catchers in MLB last year and Arreaz was in rookie of the year conversations. They couldn't have bought there way onto one of these top 10 lists in MILB? The talent experts only can predict so much. I think he is dead wrong not to have Larnach on there though. Kirrilloff had a down year. with only a 750 OPS he is about as high as he could put him in fact statistically I bet there were better options but his stats from last year probably helped him hang on this year. Same for Lewis he had a down year and is living off of last years stats and potential.

I honestly didn't realize he did not play first base at all last year. That might impact why he wasn't on this years top 10 list. He was a 1st basemen in college though so he certainly can play that position if needed. I know there was some talk that his defense wasn't that great at first base so maybe the Twins feel outfield is best? Not sure. Thing is breaking into this outfield is no easy task either. I really wonder how all this is going shake out.

While Pineda is suspended he is on the restricted list so won't count against the 40 man until he comes off the restricted list. Counting Pineda the Twins had 39 players on the 40 man and when Baily and Hill signed that went to 41 when including Pineda. Pineda will count eventually but for now he does not. When Donaldson signed it went to 42 so now someone has to come off. By the time Pineda does come off someone els e might be hurt so they might not have to worry about creating a spot. Also when the regular season starts Hill won't count against the. 40 man because he is hurt so they will have that spot back until Hill comes back.

While Pineda is on the 40 man he doesn't count as taking a spot because he is currently suspended. so after the Donaldson signing they just need to remove one guy from the 40 man. They will show 41 but the suspended player doesn't count.

Yes that is very true. No one has proven they need to be added yet and we have all year this year to assess value before the outfield could be over crowded and tougher decisions need to be made, Just jumping the gun a little there because I feel over confident that Rooker and Kirrilloff will need to be added and we can't keep all those left fielder\1st basemen on the 40 man. I am still bullish on Rosario too and think that if he performs just a little better this year the Twins will keep him next year as well. We'll have to wait and see what happens. Personally I think Wade and Raley are the ones that need to really perform to keep their 40 man spots. It is gonna be a big year for the boys on the farm. Perform well or get sent packing.

I think if Rooker played out the year last year he would have made the top 10 1st baseman. He was just getting hot when he got hurt. He also made teh top 10 last year. Diaz was and is very good but they needed relief help last year and Miami threw in a decent pitching prospect as well. Not sure how many 1st baseman types we need with Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach potentially there along with Sano who is already in that spot. So trading for pitching there seemed to make sense and that is apparently who Miami wanted.

They are both signed and on the 40 man roster. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-sign-homer-bailey-rich-hill

It's not easy to make the top 100 as a prospect as there is stiff competition so congrats to all the Twins players who made the list. Happy to see some pitcher on the list and they are all hard throwers so greater upside as well. They are also pretty young 22 or under and at AA or higher so plenty of time to refine pitches and still make it. Duran's K9, WHIP and FIP all look really, really good. I am guessing that is why he made it in. ERA was high for a pitcher in the top 100 but in the age of analytics he probably deserves to be at least number 96. Hopefully he improves some more this year and becomes a top of the rotation starter. Balazovic has been solid level to level and I am hoping he handles AA and moves right onto AAA. Nice to have 6 guys on the list. Hopefully some of the lower guys have good seasons and work their way up here as well.

Things are definitely crowded in the outfield no question about it. The 40 man is full of talent as well. If you drop some of the younger guys off of it with the exception of Raley and Chalmers you are essentially dropping a top 20 prospect and gifting that player to another organization. Wisler and Harper are about the only true flexibility left IMO. That being said if injury in the outfield or 1st base I have to beliave Raley gets the first shot. He is on the 40 man and they need to see what he can do to either make it or clear a spot. Next in line is probably Rooker he is older and needs to be on the 40 next year anyway to be protected from the Rule V draft. If Rooker is injured or having a down year then Kirilloff would be up as he needs to be added next year as well. Larnach is likely the odd man out unless he is just killing it and doing much better then the players mentioned above. If no injuries it is going to be very tough for anyone from the minors to find a spot on the 40 man. Even with injuries they might get passed over so that we don't lose someone else. Personally I think the FO lets them play this year and try's to decide who to keep and who to trade to strengthen the team around the deadline. They will have more information on the state of the farm to make better decisions by then.

Eddie started the year almost making it to the all star game but he wasn't the same player after he injured his ankle. That injury likely did impact his offense and defense some but hard to know how much. The question is, is Rosario an All Star or a good but flawed player. I don't think he has answered that question just yet. The thing is we only have the data we have and right now Jake Cave (in a SSS) had a better OPS than Rosario last year. So overall he appears to be just as good as Rosario with the bat and probably better in the field. Granted Cave's slugging isn't as good as Rosario and you might have to give up close to ten HR's per year given Caves production thus far but you would also be getting a player that doesn't swing at pitches a mile outside and walks at more then double the rate Rosario does. Caves value lies in walks and Rosario's weakness is a lack of walks. Believe it or not outs matter in baseball they kill rally's in a hurry. Rosario's OBP is always low and that affects how productive he is. If he had eye even somewhat close to Arraez he would be a perenial All Star but alas his swing at everything approach has him falling short. If Jake Cave can be as productive Rosario for a fraction of the cost why hang onto Rosario that is the question people are asking. Not to mention our two best hitters in the minors can play his position and might be ready for MLB as early as this year. Eddie has always been a good player and a fan favorite I think primarily because he is not afraid of big moments and likes to try and rise to the occassion and sometimes does. If Rosario has an All Star season no question the Twins do their best to hang onto him, but like the OP said he needs to be better by a decent margin to hold onto his spot as there are players nipping at his heals who can be close to as productive for a lot less money. Money that can go to spots we don't have good substitutes for.

It seems to me they tried to be careful with him last year in AA and he still ended up hurt. IMO they don't believe his arm can hold up to a starters load without injury. Maybe it won't hold up to pen work either but probably best to get his arm through a full season first and then go from there. If he can help the MLB club out of the pen while doing that then all the better.

I don't understand the purists at all. It's as if all change is bad. Baseball already got rid of collisions at the plate and the stupid slid into the player throwing the ball from second and they are on there way to the pitch clock. The game changed with steroid use. Analytics have changed the game. The game has been changing before the purists eyes for years and yet they still bemoan the use of the DH. This game doesn't stay the same, strategies change like defensive shifts and lefty specialist relievers. The game isn't and hasn't been "pure" for decades. Enjoy the changes they make the game better.

I think once the NL has teh DH they'll wonder why they didn't switch to it 30 years ago. The game is much more exciting when mighty Casey is at bat even if he does strikeout.

Seth thanks for putting this together. It was something I was going to do myself because I wanted to keep an eye on the guys that might need to get protected this year, but you do better work\have more knowledge than I do. I really appreciate the list and will bookmark\steal this page from you. It is early but the possibles still have a chance to make themselves Givens. I think 3 or 4 of them will. I am still pretty high on Jax. I know he didn't get protected and no one took him but I think he is one plus pitch away from making it. He has the control and isn't afraid to throw strikes just needs another out pitch to bring that K9 up and he is a viable MLB starter. I know that easier said than done but I think he makes some adjustments and gets there. I think you have Rortvedt on the wrong list. The guy threw out around 50% of the runners trying steal this past year and yeah his bat slumped as the year went on but he hasn't been horrible with the bat either. He will totally get taken if not protected. Miranda, Baddoo and Javier all have to shine with the bat this year to need to be protected but at least one of those guys will break out. Unless Rijo and Ober stumble they will most certainly need to protected as they will be at the higher levels and have enough stuff to get taken. Might even see a bubble or two or three make it to the givens as well. I am a pretty big Sammons believer. He struggled a bit at AA but he is a big lefty and I like his odds. Severino was injured last year so might have some rust to start the year but I bet he gained strength and if that power shows up he might need protection. I have no idea what to expect from Lachlan Wells but wouldn't bet against him. He might end up a reliever and not protected but I think he has the stuff to be really good. Have to wait and see yet though. I mean it all depends on how these guys perform. I was kind of disappointed last year at how several prospects performed so you never know when a prospect will tough stretch or completely plateau and no longer be able to compete at a higher level. Will have to wait to know but I think there will some even tougher decisions next year when it comes to protecting players. Again thanks for the list as I like looking and thinking about this stuff even if it is too early.

There is no question the Twins likely have more outfielders than they can protect. With Celestino on the 40 man the 40 man has 1 too many outfielders on it already and at the end of this year we will need to protect Kirilloff, Rooker and possibly Baddoo. Not to mention we still have Larnach in the wings who will likely be ready in the next year or two tops with Wallner likely not far behind. There is no urgency to do anything about that situation just yet but if the above mentioned all perform well we won't be able to keep them all. We also will likely have to protect Balazovic, Sammons, and Ober next year. If Barnes, Jax and Wells perform well this year then would likely have to find room for them too. Infield is just Miranda and possibly Javier if he ever finds his swing but add that up and there is a possible 11 adds if everyone performs. Granted they won't all do well next year. Someone is going to get hurt or slump or be deemed not worthy of being added. The thing is there are 7 guys that are likely going to need to be added two of them are outfielders and one is outfielder\1st baseman not mention one guy who might force his way on early in Larnach. So I agree the system is getting to a point where trades need to be considered. Who should be traded there is less clarity on. Until we see how those 11 perform we don't know if we really have excess prospect capital or not. Also just because a prospect is good through AA an=d AAA doesn't mean the skillset will translate to MLB so it is a bit of a guessing game in the end. I love how this FO has stacked waves of prospects but in doing a good job there they need to protect that investment by trading some of the excess for things they need right now. Hopefully they make the right decisions when they do it.