Dman

If its a one year deal what do you think he would sign for 10M. 12M. 15M? Will the Twins have the stomach to grab him on a one year deal at those numbers? I have to believe he makes those number on a one year deal with several clubs as he is coming off of an 18M salary. I just don't see the Twins moving the payroll number that far out unless Mr. Pohlad goes insane and forgets about making money after a season in which it sounds like most all the clubs lost money. I think the only reason he isn't signed is his difficulty to get through 5 innings and third time through the order plus he isn't really a ground ball pitcher. Being injured last year also could make teams worried about him making it through a whole season now that he is in to his 30's. But if he is willing to go one year I would think he could do all right on a one year contract. The risk is better for both sides then.

And 2018 might be as good or better than 2016 with Larnach Jeffers Sands Winder Willie Joe Gary Schulfer Smith,LaRon Neff And they did that one without their supplemental 2nd and third round picks. A ways to go to see how 2018 pans out but there is a chance it could be as good. Right now though I would have to say 2016 is my all time favorite draft for the Twins. Having three 2nd rounders certainly helped that draft along with getting a little lucky with Balazovich in the 5th round They surprisingly went mainly high upside high school players early which is unusual but payed off that year. .

Color me surprised especially about Arraez. I just couldn't see a way for them to get him his at bats that they seemed to indicate he deserved without playing there. I wonder if they don't see a ton of difference between Polonco and Arraez so he plays more 2nd than I initially thought and I think the entire infield has had leg problems at one time or another so giving guys more time off is probably going to be a good thing. I can see putting all three guys in left field to start the season so I just assumed they would keep Alex down but maybe if he has a really good spring they have him start the season there. I still think he is going to need to show out in spring training to get there otherwise it would be easy to justify putting other players there to start the season. I forgot who said it up above but the Twins currently and likely into the future shouldn't be short on 1st baseman, right or left fielders into the distant future as they have plenty of opportunity to draft those types of players (i.e. they have taken that type of player 5 straight times in the 1st round) and develop them Also they are generally the easiest to find in free agency. So if they did decide they didn't care about the extra year it shouldn't matter too much. In conclusion they might not be that worried about losing the extra year or maybe it is just a smokescreen to say, hey we were considering it, but we feel better with the other guys and will have Alex start in AAA. I honestly don't know what to think but thanks for the great writeup and letting me know how little I really do know about how this FO will operate.

OMG we are cursed at the SS position.

You have a good case there and i don't totally disagree, but we don't know how Kirilloff will perform right away in MLB. Jake Cave had essentially an 800 OPS in 2018 and 2019 what if this is his breakout year and he is ready to be even better? Rooker had a 900 OPS in a SSS last year it would be tough for Kirilloff to improve on that number. Like you said Kirilloff might be better than both of those players but he might be no better or worse too. We don't know yet. That is why each player is a possibility IMO. Do I believe Kirilloff will be better eventually, yes I do. Can I see the Twins starting with guys with MLB experience yes I can see that too. Like you I think they move on from Cave for a few reasons. One there is no room for him especially after this year. Two his service time will be arb'd soon and they have a ready replacement who can be just as good and likely better for less money the next three years. Three I think he is tradable. However, that doesn't preclude them from using him to start the season and fill in if injurie's happen for this year. I agree with you on Arraez but most things I am reading seem to point to the Twins feeling that is a place they can and will play him on occasion. They promised him at bats and he can only spell Polanco so often. If they want him to play and it seems they do he needs to be in Left field some days. I never said the Agent was the bad guy I mentioned his strategy leads to teams doing what they do. The players generally get the short end especially when it comes to service time I am just pointing out what I believe to be a flaw in his strategy for the players he reps.

I'll need to see his spring to really say for sure how i would proceed, but right now they have Cave, Arraez and Rooker to pencil in at Left field. The Twins might want to straighten that out before putting Kirilloff there because then you have one less place to play Arraez to start the season and probably need to trade Cave and then there isn't much room for Rooker who looked like he might be good as well. This isn't your typical case of Kirilloff is the best and only option to start the year in MLB. The Twins have a lot of options they will have to choose which way they want to go but it looks like it lines up with Kirilloff at AAA to me. If Kirilloff performs really, really well this spring that could change how the Twins feel about Cave and maybe they can rotate Arraez into the infield and left field to make room for his bat but that would pretty much leave Rooker out of the picture unless there is an injury or they decide to platoon him with Kepler. Lot's of ifs. I think they punt and leave Kirilloff at AAA until they see how guys are playing or they have a greater need due to injury. I get that Boras helps his clients get maybe more than they deserve sometimes but his unwillingness to extend clients hurts his clients in the end because then teams are pretty much forced to use what ever measures they can to retain control longer. If he extended when it made sense he wouldn't have that kind of problem but since he never does his players are most always going to have to play seven years until becoming FA's. At least until they change the service time rules.

I agree with you about the service time issue. His statements totally violated it. That statement was pretty indefensible. I have to disagree with you on Bryant though. If his defense was sooo bad what exactly were they able to fix in the month or two they sent him down that they hadn't fixed the two years prior? It was a very wink, wink, he needs to work on defense that was so weak his agent filed a grievance. Granted they couldn't prove what the Cubs intent was but it seemed pretty clear to everyone why that happened. So clear in fact that clubs stayed away from trading for him because they weren't sure how it would be ruled. Buxton was pretty much the same. They could have brought him back at the end of that season but they didn't because the service time was so close. Again hard to prove intent but with all the various cases out there it seems pretty well known to everyone what is going on and why even if a FO says player X needs more work.

I agree with you. I think a Berrios extension seems unlikely but they have him for two years and if he turns down the QO they should get a good draft pick for him at least. We have never had 5 to 6 pitchers with the quality of stuff that the current group of prospects have since I started following MiLB and I doubt if they have ever had that kind of talent bubbled up to the top ever before. I have to believe at least two of those 6 make it at some point and the rest if they don't make it should be excellent pen arms. Losing the 2020 MiLB season makes it harder to determine just where these guys are at as some of it is likely just hype until proven. Also injuries can change things in a hurry but you have to consider we haven't even gotten to see the pitchers from 2019 and there could be another stud or two in that group as well that could be ready at the end of 2022 or 2023. the cupboard is far from bare though. If the Twins finally start developing the pitching they need and are able to trade older players for younger ones I think they have a ten year stretch in them.

Contention depends on the competition to some degree. The White Sox are a younger possibly more talented version of the Twins right now with a solid 5 to 6 year core. The Indians are going to have an elite rotation for the next 5 to six years. If they ever get a formidable lineup in place they will be very tough to beat. KC is well on their way back with some solid young pitching coming up and decent bats right now. They don't have a solid core that I can see but a few trades and up and coming prospects could change that. Detroit has a ways to go but their pitching looks close as well. In a couple of years there core should be in place. The Twins have a lot of talent right now and coming up but they will have to find a way to remain better than the rest of the division. No easy task as now that most of the teams in the division are ready to compete with lots of talented young cores on the way, I like where the Twins are with the talent they have and the talent coming up. I would say I am most excited about the pitching prospects we have and the FO's ability to get the most out of the arms they have in the system. I think if they can pull off developing the pitching they need to compete, then I think they are truly set for a good long run.

It's a good question but trades are complicated. The decision to trade is based on so many different factors like Present value vs. future value. The odds of prospects even having future value. How many years of control are you giving up how many are you getting back, the money involved, etc. etc. In this case given what Pittsburgh got in the trade it would have taken more than Larnach to get that deal done. Larnach would have probably been the headliner but they probably would have needed to include someone like Sands and Rijo or Vallimont plus a throw in to get the deal done. To me that is a lot to give up for two years of Joe Musgrove for a SSS breakthrough in 2020. The years before that he looks replacement level to me. If he truly has turned the corner maybe but that is a ton of future value to give up for 2 years. The Pads can probably afford it as they had the number one farm in baseball and needed more pitching depth. Personally I think the Twins did just fine with Shoemaker and Happ. Both guys look like they should be as good or better than Musgrove and they gave up Zero prospects to get them. In the end Musgrove has only one more year of control compared to those guys as well. Maybe I am wrong but I don't feel like they missed out. Remember they have 5 young starters of which a couple should be looking for spots soon. Just because you have a surplus of talent somewhere doesn't mean you should just trade it for anything. I believe the Ramos\Matt Capps trade taught us that. Be patient be smart IMO. The Twins could have done that trade and justified it just like the Padres but I think they did the right thing by waiting.

Call me old school but I still like guys with good to great plate discipline to have a greater chance to make the jump to MLB because even if they are struggling to get hits they are not an automatic out when taking walks. Also making the pitcher work is an underrated skill in the home run or bust age of baseball. While I understand Law's concern, Larnach is a guy always looking to improve. Inside might be his weakness, and it is a weakness of lot's of MLB players, but Law doesn't seem to account for the great success he has had in the league to this point either. With the good eye at the plate I think Larnach will be just fine. I have been excited about Larnach for a long time. Will have to see how he does this year but I think 2022 is his year for the big team. I think he starts in AA this year as we have Kirilloff, Broxton and Garlick likely for AAA. There seems to be a shortage of outfielders for AA as I only see Contrares and Whitefield there with Larnach making number 3. That could easily change but I think they start him in AA as I think he only had half a year there and once Kirilloff moves then I think Larnach moves to AAA.

Maybe I am tone deal but reading the transcript I am not as outraged as I thought I would be. He simply talked bluntly about the service time issues. Are the Twins and pretty much all 30 clubs really any different in trying to gain the extra year. Does he sound crude and heartless saying it sure but its not like the rest of the league are angels. Every team does pretty much the same thing. His personal opinion is that Kyle Seager is not worth the money they are paying him and he sees this as his last year. Could he have left that out, sure. Should he have left that out, yes, but the context here is is that he also stated that Seager should be in the Mariners Hall Fame so how is that a complete dis on Seager? He also stated Seager played great last year but yeah he personally feels it won't be worth it for the Mariners to pick up the option with all the young guys they have coming and the value per dollar they give the team. Certainly not something he needed to say or that I would have said but he was being honest about how the team felt. While I didn't understand the "Loud" comment at all and he didn't have to mention the "poor English" but it seemed to me he wanted to make the point that the money they are putting into their academies are allowing for teaching the players English and I assume how to handle money when they get to the states. I don't particularly think he stated it as well as he could have but again given the context I didn't get the feeling he was trying to degrade those players as much as make the point that they were trying to help with language issues earlier. I can see how this one can be perceived poorly and he should have stayed away from it because it was pretty much a lose, lose scenario for him but I did not detect malice in what he was saying. While he made a fairly big deal of Kelenic not signing the contract they offered he admitted he might outperform it and he also said he hoped that the Mariners would be able to sign him after the years of control were up. Given what he said earlier hurt him because he admitted how teams are handling service time to try and get the extra year so I can again see that it could come off cold but every team is doing this not just the Mariners. Should the Cubs FO have been fired for how they treated Bryant? How about the Twins and how they treated Buxton? They didn't say it out loud but they did it so what's the difference? I think the main issue here is that he was just too truthful. He said it like it is and we all got to see that stealing that extra year is basically evil and talking about someone's second language skills is only going to offend. Maybe the truth is things just aren't setup quite right for the players yet and has less to with what was said and more to do with the current business of baseball. Again maybe I am misreading things or not completely understanding the gravity of what was said but while he was somewhat tone deaf to what he was saying I didn't get the feeling like he meant to harm anyone by telling the truth.

I was one who fell in with the draft experts and thought the Twins were crazy to pick him in that spot. It looked like there was a chance to get him in the 4th round but hard to say if he would have lasted that long or not. Not having that 3rd round pick that year seemed to force them to take him higher than they might have wanted. So far it looks like that was a good decision. Strange but that 2018 draft without their supplemental and third round pick is shaping up to be a good one with Larnach, Jeffers, Sands and Winder at the top end and Willie Joe Garry, Auston Schulfer, Zach Neff, LaRon Smith Regi Grace and Charles Mack still in the running to make a difference. I don't really know what to say about Jeffers that hasn't been said and after he burned me last time I am not that interested in doubting him again.

I agree 6 or 7 seven years is currently not good for the players especially since teams are no longer doing as many long term contracts after age 30 knowing they will generally eat the last two years of salary if said player declines as predicted. The thing is the bottom 10 teams in revenue will have a very hard time surviving if they cut service time to 4 or 5 years. It generally takes a season or two just to get players acclimated to the highest level so that would give teams like Oakland or Tampa incredibly small windows to create a playoff level teams and keep it going. You look at how Tampa and Oakland operate right now and they often times use the last 2 years of the 6 years to trade players because either they won't be able to pay the arb salaries and or they want to keep the farm full of good prospects to get more lower priced younger players on their team. Essentially waiting for the right mix to compete with the best teams because they lack the salary to compete. I honestly don't think those two teams in particular could survive that type of change without some sort of revenue sharing which I just don't see happening. The teams with the most revenue don't want to share it because they make that money and want to keep it. If it gives them an advantage all the better. The players association doesn't want it because it could keep salaries down for the top players. I think having the soft cap as it is, is tough enough to maintain. I don't see either side being able to bridge the gap there. To make revenue sharing work better you could take out the the last 5 to 10 teams in revenue generation and then you might not have to share so much money, but that will disenfranchise millions of fans and again create less revenue opportunity for players as the player pool would be diminished. There aren't a lot of good answers for how to fix this that I can think of. A work stoppage would be bad for both sides. The last time there was one I didn't watch MLB for at least 5 years after I was so disgusted with both sides. They have a good thing going and if they strike I think it kills the momentum they have. There are lots of other things we do with our time these days losing viewers and fans will be bad for both sides. Once people find they can live without baseball they won't easily come back, and my kids aren't even interested in the game as it is right now. Still the issue remains that young players with good or great production are not getting paid what they deserve. Arbitration helps and earlier arbitration might help most teams but not the lower end teams. I don't know what the answer is but I hope they figure something out that both sides can live with.

Given that analysis it seems like injuries are the main thing that have held him back. If he can stay healthy this could be a very good signing. Hopefully the Twins do what they can to keep him healthy.

In 2018 the Royals took 3 pitchers in the 1st round, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch. They also Drafted Asa Lacy in the first round in 2020. Singer is no longer a prospect as he pitched enough at the MLB level to no longer be considered a prospect. So KC got a pitcher to MLB in two years from drafting him. That is pretty good but here is the rub the Twins took a guy who wasn't even drafted in 2017 and he pitched in MLB in 2019 so it only took Randy Dobnak two years to make it as well. So who did the better job of development? Singers ERA in 2020 4.06. Dobnaks ERA in 2020 4.05. Granted Singers K9 is much better than Dobnaks and his WHIP slightly better as well and he is likely to be the better pitcher of the two but what it does show is that good pitchers can be found almost anywhere from the first round to not even being picked. I personally think it shows that development is the true key to unlocking pitching success. Am I saying don't take pitchers in the 1st round and rely on undrafted pitchers, heck no. In Lynch, Kowar, and Lacy I think the Royals are on the cusp of having a young, tough, legitimate rotation. I think those first round picks are going to develop quickly and have good stuff to boot. But here's the rub Cleveland got Bieber in the 4th round in 2017 and he was the best pitcher in the American league last year. You don't HAVE to grab pitchers in the first round to find success. If the Twins get Sands and Winder to MLB this coming year that 2018 draft with Larnach and Jeffers at the top starts to look pretty special. It is too early to bank on that happening but you can see what the FO is thinking. Go with the fairly sure thing in predicting offense early in the draft then take your cracks at pitching which is much more volatile and can be found in the later rounds and developed. To me that seems to be their plan. I still think that they should take pitching early and late some years because you can trade good pitching for anything you want in baseball. If you can identify good pitchers you should take them because every team is looking for pitching and lot's of teams have an excess of other players. In conclusion I don't think there is a one size fits all strategy, but right now I trust this FO. I think the decisions they make are based on good data and good strategies. Certainly I like to quibble but I don't have all the data that they have. Personally I don't think we have too much to complain about. They are not perfect but I think they as good as and or better than most.

Max really has only had the one good season when the ball was supposedly juiced so I think this article is spot on. Either they need to platoon him to get the most out of the bat or maybe Larnach is the ultimate answer. I really do love Max's defense in right and the HR power is definitely there but there are good bats on the way. He really does need a good year to prove he deserves his spot IMO. With his contract and ability to play to center I think it would be tough to trade him as he would still have value even as a platoon bat or fourth outfielder but if the right deal came along I could see it.

There are a lot of ifs for every team in the central. The only team I am counting out is Detroit. They don't seem to have the pitching or the hitting to contend just yet but I think they can beat their projections if some of their players improve this year. The Indians have the pitching to get it done the only question is will their hitters step up? If they do they can take the division their pitching is just that good. I tend to agree with Darius on the White Sox. Maybe I am a bit too star struck but if that lineup preforms then I am sorry but I think they take it this year. They have solid pitching and they have a young team. While young teams can be volatile they generally seem to have fewer injuries and that can make a difference especially later in the season. If KC's rookie pitchers perform they are going to be a tough team to beat. They have a solid group of hitters and while their pen seems old and less effective than some I think they will give teams trouble this year. The Twins have a good rotation and a great lineup but they have problems staying healthy. They do have a fair amount of depth so maybe they can overcome some of those injuries and keep things going but injuries are my greatest concern for the club this year. If they stay healthy I think they are the best team in the division if not then they could fall off. Should be a really competitive and fun season this year.

Thanks for this article and I agree with your analysis. I was curious as to why the Twins kept Garlick on the 40 man. I thought for sure they would keep an extra reliever on there. They had just traded Wade and gotten the 40 man down to 6 outfielders which seemed like a good idea to me. Also I didn't hear any rumors that the Twins were looking for a right handed bat for left field or right field for that matter. Sooo what gives? I guess if a guy like that falls into your lap you take a good hard look and see if he fits at worst you have right handed depth. I have been waiting all winter to hear something good about Chalmers but it has been crickets in regards to him at this point. I sure hope he had made some improvement on his control otherwise it is getting hard to see how he fits. Canterino and Winder have had major hype since last fall and all winter so I sure hope they prove it is for real. Would be nice to have two more big arms to go with Balazovic and Duran. I really liked the Hamilton pickup and am hoping the Twins can take him to another level. He seems to have the control he needs just might need to miss more bats. Can't hurt to see if they can make him something sprecial. I can't believe Tellis stayed with the Twins but man that is some nice insurance to have going into the season. Austudillo will have to prove his worth this year as there are all kinds of players that could slot into that spot. Thanks again for the article I do plan to watch these guys closely.

Since there will be many more good senior signs and essentially a surplus of players to choose from I wonder if that will change draft strategies for 2021. This is a good year to have an many picks as possible IMO.

There was less pitching available this offseason so he should have had an easier time IMO. He also wasn't saddled with a QO. If he would have actually pitched in 2020 he probably would be signed by now. I believe the issue last year and this year is everyone knows he has a hard time the third time through the order. It is tough to get five innings from him most nights. Being injured in 2020 really has to have put the breaks on for teams because now you have a guy that is hard to get through five and might have injury issues to boot. He just hasn't shown enough to make teams confident about what production he will give them for the money he wants. It probably is a smart move to wait through spring training as an injury(s) could make teams desperate enough to make a move. If not even though he doesn't like it he will need to pull a Lance Lynn and settle for a one year prove it deal.

lol Thanks I totally messed that up.

I think we will have to wait and see how Caves bat looks this spring to see how this plays out because I think Arraez has the lead on left field as his bat is so valuable to the team. Not sure what the lefty righty splits are for Cave and Arraez but can see Rooker in left or right with a lefty on the mound. Keplers splits are concerning against lefty's so the Twins might want to platoon there from time to time. If there is an odd man out I think it will be Rooker. If Cave struggles look for a switch. Once they bring up Kirilloff all bets are off. Injuries will likely determine how much Rooker plays this year IMO. Personally I think this is Cave's last year on the team as once they decide to add Larnach they won't want to carry that many outfielder's on the 40 man. Would be nice if Cave played well to build some trade value but we'll have to wait and see how things play out.

Do you think Garlic stays on the 40 man or will the Twins make another move? I guess they are a little short on quality outfielders at AAA so maybe making sure they hung onto him was the greater priority. Maybe I am over thinking this stuff too much but I believe Tampa just traded with the Rangers for some pitching depth so maybe the Twins thought now was a good time try and get Gibaut through waivers but were more concerned Tampa might grab Garlic? Or do you think they honestly want to keep Garlic on the 40 man because they plan to use him during the season? While I know the Twins don't have a ton of power righties ready to step in it seems a bit odd to think they want to carry another outfielder when there is a log jam in left field with Cave, Rooker, Arraez, eventually Kirilloff and Larnach. Is Garlic just Rooker injury insurance or do you think the Twins would platoon both of them against Lefties? Just not sure what the thinking is and like I said might be over thinking it but I am curious as to why they wanted to keep Garlic on the 40 man.

How long are you gonna die on the hill that the Pressly trade was bad? The year he was traded we were out of it and didn't need him. The next year while the bullpen initially struggled they were good until the playoffs. But Pressly was hurt that year anyway and wouldn't have been able to help us. And even if I indulge you and say he wouldn't have been hurt and could have helped us that year the offense never scored any runs in the playoffs so it wouldn't have mattered anyway. Could they have gotten him to re-sign, maybe, but odds are someone would have offered more money and he would have been lost for NOTHING. Instead the Twins got 6 controllable years of two players. One of which made his MLB debut and put up pretty much the same or slightly better numbers than Pressly did last year in his first year. We have 5 more years of control left at cheaper rates what's not to like. Oh and lets not forget we also might have 6 years of control for an elite defensive center fielder. Granted it is early and if he can't hit could be a fourth outfielder so we'll have to wait and see., but that is a trade a good FO makes every day of the week and twice on Sundays.