Dman

Prospect ranking are subjective so not too surprised there would be variance. I would guess we would only have 3 to 4 players tops in the top 100. They would be Lewis, Kiriloff and Graterol, Possibly Larnach but with such limited at bats it is hard to say how he is viewed. I think about a dozen of our guys that could be in the top 200 need to have seasons where they prove their skills are translating. Some of those dozen players will fail to drastically improve, some will be injured and some will move up. Just have to wait and see what happens but I predict more Twins players in the top 200 next year.

If Kepler improves his batting average to say even 260 I think the Twins will be hard pressed to move him. His defense is close to elite for a right fielder. He has enough power to stay there and K and walk percentage are decent and could get better. He just needs to bring that average up and suddenly he is a great player. Cave's K rate is not great and while his defense would play in right I'm not sure his arm does. Cave's BABIP was also high last year while Keplers was low. Cave is probably the closest replacement for Kepler but personally I think right now Kepler is better and if Kepler improves a little I think he is definitely the better all around player in right field. Wade could probably play good defense in right and he has always had a good OBP but he lacks the power that you typically want your right fielder to have. You could take the trade off but again if Kepler improves his BA a little he looks like the better player. Kiriloff can play right and his bat would would play there but he would be at his very best an average fielder in Right. Personally I think Kiriloff is better fit in left field or first base as he doesn't have great speed for the outfield. He can certainly play outfield but his defense there will likely never be near elite. If Kepler improves his BA, keeps his K rate down and Walk rate up, keeps slugging 20 to 25 home runs per year then he is going to be tough to replace. If he improves I predict he will be a Twin through the life of his contract. I don't see anyone in the system with the number of tools he has and the ceiling he has for that position. If he stays who he is then, Yes I agree with you the Twins have lots of options. Those options all have there flaws but if he can't hit that will be a problem.

So Max truly is Max a Million now. Set for life way to beat the odds Max!

I agree that if Kiroloff, Larnach, and Wade or Badoo step up then something is going to have give. However, If Max starts hitting as some scouts predict then he would be very tough to replace in right field. He is one of the best right fielders in Baseball right now and if hits like 270-280\330-350 and 20 or more homers per year it wouldn't make sense to move\trade him as he would be one of the best right fielders in baseball. That hit tool is still a question mark but we will get another season to see if he can break out. If he can't become a better hitter then he doesn't look too bad as a center fielder option so maybe then they trade him. Hard to say what the future holds but given what I have been reading my money is on Max improving this year.

I guess I don't understand the logic there. If you have money to spend now wouldn't evenly spreading out the the contract give you greater cost certainty\stability for five years (i.e. Every Year I pay Max 7 Million). If I pay him 3 this year, 5 next year, and 8 the year after. etc. then in future years he keeps bumping my payroll number each future year. Leaving me fewer future dollars to improve the team. If I am a cheap owner then I get why you structure the higher numbers to the later years of the contract as you might trade the player before the entire contract is up thus avoiding paying the higher salaries at the end of the contract. As the player improves so does their trade value. So it gives you an opportunity to not have to pay those future dollars in the end. Granted there is no guarantee that it works out that way for the team but at least the opportunity is there to not have to pay those future years. That is the only reason I can see for structuring salaries with increasing values for future years. If someone else can enlighten me please do.

Seems like a fair deal. Nice to have some cost control, and cost stability with the way they structured the contract. I am a little nervous about him being able to hit but right now there is less pressure on his hit tool because his defense is so good. If he can become a 270 hitter with 20 or more home runs per year this will be a good deal for the Twins. Nice thing about both extensions is if Kepler and Polanco improve we have them locked up through their prime years.

Sometimes I hate how Law stunts my optimism on certain prospects but I have learned he is right more often than wrong. Duran is young and has a good fastball but like most young pitchers his secondaries are suspect. So I can see where Law is coming from. Also it isn't often that we are treated to a minor league no hitter for seven innings by one of our pitchers so I think seeing what we saw makes us more optimistic than most. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Law did not see Berrios being a top of the rotation starter this early either. It took a lot of development before Law came around on him. Duran has the fastball so a little development and he can be a top of the rotation piece as well. Just have to hope he can figure things out.

IN=n the Fangraphs polling it looks like the three batter minimum is the only "New Rule" That fans don't seem to want. It was close to a 50/50 split. DH, 26 man roster and 20 second clock were close to 70% IIRC.

I am totally with you. Everyone wants to see mighty Casey bat whether he hits a home run or strikes out. The raw emotion of that moment, the suspense, the glimmer of hope, beats a pitcher coming to bat. Yeah, yeah strategy and all that is fine for the mind-numbing numbers people but for shear excitement take the DH. Mighty Casey

Three batter minimum seems unlikely to succeed. I am not totally against it as it creates a whole new strategy in the game but it takes certain strategies away as well. DH should have been done a long time ago. I hate the painful pitcher outs in the NL. The purists will get over it and the game will be better for it. 20 second clock, Yes please. I don't need to see guys walk around the mound shake their glove, twist the ball around, stare out in to space for a while and then finally pitch. Mound visits, don't really care one way or the other on this one, but if I had to choose less is more. 26 man how about a 27 man? With all the pitchers on the 25 man would be nice to have some space for platoon players etc. Anti tanking? I agree with the poster above. If the issue they are trying to resolve is FA salaries and not enough competition for players then they should really create a minimum spend for teams. Maybe they need spend to within 10 to 15 % of their net income or something like that. That way no team should be able to tank and make bank. Hope they make some changes soon.

Very nice article. Sometimes you almost forget the human\emotional side of this game that player go through. All these minor league players are very talented just to get this far but it is so hard to be able to play with the best of the best (i.e MLB Baseball). Out of the thousands of guys drafted so few make it. Loved the honesty in Andro's answers. I think I would feel pretty much the same way if I were in his situation. I also love his attitude about being ready to compete and not give up on the dream. Real nice Story Seth. Thanks.

That is an impressive season for a 19 year old in A ball. So far looks to be as good as advertised from the draft. A good season at high A and he'll be moving up a head of schedule. Speaking of A+ it looks like that will be the team to watch this year. With Graterol, Enlow, Duran, and possibly Balazovic you have four young pitchers that appear to have mid to front-line starter stuff. Nice to see some strong pitching candidates coming up through the system. Here's hoping that Enlow is a big part of wave two for the Twins.

Kepler has been picked by many stat guys as a breakout candidate this year. His Defense in Right field was very good last year so the Twins need to know if he is a player on the rise or he is who he is. I predict a long leash for him this year as he doesn't hurt the team defensively and the only way to improve offensively is to get more at bats at the MLB level. Buxton is possibly the best defensive center fielder in baseball so he doesn't hurt the team there. Like Kepler he simply needs to improve his offensive production and I predict the Twins will stick with him all year unless he is absolutely lost at the plate. They have no one on the team that can replace what he brings defensively and if gets going offensively he is a perenial All Star so again I predict a long leash for Buc as the Twins need him to reach his potential for this team to make it to the next level. Rosario almost made the All Star team with his first half last year so I would say he is entrenched in left. So IMO the 4th outfielders identified in this article will be fourth outfielders barring injury to one of the players listed above.

OK I think I am starting to better understand why the FO is keeping all the 4th outfielders. I always thought Reed and Granite were redundant but since Reed is a righty he might fit better as a mix and match for Rosario or Kepler who are left handed. The Twins don't want to give up on Granite after an injured\bad season because even if they don't like him long term in the fourth outfielder spot since he has an option, there is worse case, an opportunity for him to build better trade value for next year or best case prove he deserves the 4th outfielder spot. I really like what Cave was able to do last year and I think he proved he belongs in the Majors. That being said I don't know what his lefty, righty splits are but if they are worse than Reed when it comes to lefties and he has option years left I think the Twins might prefer Reed. IMO spring training is going to be important for all three guys. I think whoever looks best defensively and offensively will likely get the job. That being said I think Reed actually has the inside track as he has no options left. If he has a decent spring and proves himself worthy I think he remains on the 25 man to start the season. Should be a fun and interesting competition to watch this spring.

I hated the Jeffers pick when the Twins made it because it seemed like a reach but what he did this past year in Short Season ball really changed my mind. I am a big fan of Jeffers bat. I can't remember any prospect that had OPS of 1.095 in the Appy league since I have been watching. I was very impressed by what he was able to do. Granted he came down some in Cedar Rapids but his numbers were still good. I think the Twins did well picking him when and where they did. I will be watching him this year expecting great things.

Good point. Technically if they were willing to spend a little money they could have replaced his production via Free Agency. Unfortunately I don't think the arms they added are as good as what they lost in Pressley. So they didn't have to lose present opportunity if they didn't want to.

I liked the trade as well. To me we gave up one year of control for potentially 6 years of a pitcher that could be as good in relief as Pressley was or might even be a starter if the third pitch comes around. As a bonus we also got a 4 to 5 tool center fielder who has been young for the level everywhere he has been so far and been successful so far. Granted you can never bank on prospects working out but the odds of the Twins replacing what they lost looks pretty good to me. Even if those prospects never work out they only lost one year of a reliever, but like I said I like our odds on this deal.

I always was a big believer in Littels stuff. I am surprised that with the success he has had that all he has is average stuff? The few times I watched him it looked like all his pitches had good movement. Granted he got hit hard when he was up with the Twins but I am surprised that with a good K9 his stuff is just average. I have always liked Wade and though I know he doesn't have great power I still think he is under-rated as his OBP is really good and a good eye at the plate translates well to MLB success. I get he might be seen as just a fourth outfielder but I think he will better than that in the end. Don't know much about Alcala or Cellestino but love their upside. I am concerned about Alcala's arm holding up and wondering if he can really harness his control. Always liked Miranda and I think he will have enough power to play third.

Not sure if Vasquez is going to be in the top 20 as he never has gotten any prospect love but he was the relief pitcher of the year and his K9 is insane so I would think worthy of honorable mention. How about the newly acquired Brian Schales? He is young for the level and had a nice OPS last year in AA. Poppen pitched pretty well last year as well. He doesn't appear to have tons of velocity but his K 9 has been solid and his WHIP is good. He could be a four or a five if things go his way. I know it was short season but I think Helman deserves some love as well. I know he is older for his level but the guy looks like he can hit. I could find more and I like our super underdogs De La Trinidad and Costello as well. Should be a fun year watching the MiLB guys this year.

I am really in a back and forth battle with myself over the teams strategy. Do they believe so strongly in the young guys coming up that they only want 1 year deals? Why can't they pay a little more and grab some guys with potential greater upside, does everything have to be from the bargain bin? Why can't they just invest in slightly more expensive talent bringing them up to league average payroll is that, should that, really be an issue at this point? Why can't we at least try to go long term with at least one player this year? If they spent to their max even if some of that talent doesn't pan out at least they tried and if it does pan out then maybe we have a team that can compete this year. Just when I think their strategy is to find out about the young players we have on the farm they go and grab marginal players that will likely block them from pitching in until the second half of the season. Honestly I don't know what they are trying to do in 2019 anymore. If we are punting on 2019 then at least lets find out what we have on the farm as best we can so we know what holes need filling next year. If we aren't punting this is a bit of a strange strategy (grabing all marginal bounce back players) to me. I mean I guess they've got me no matter what. I am going to watch and or follow them whether they are a train wreck or average or successful. I just have too much invested in this team not to watch, but right now I am feeling a bit disappointed in where things are at. There is always 2020 and I am excited about the young guys we have in MILB and they way the draft is shaping up but I was hoping they were going to do a little more in 2019 for MLB club.

I wasn't a fan of the Anibel Sanchez signing last year and he did well with the Braves. I ranted and raved about how horrible that move was. Hopefully they identified something here as well. Can't say I excited but hope this works out for my favorite team.

I agree with you they can spend to the limit now. Never hurts to add talent and if you get them on short term deals it won't hurt the long term plan. All I was trying to point out is they have a strategy that is in line with what made other teams successful and those teams didn't really spend to the upper limit until they had a solid core. I don't see that the Twins have that just yet so I can see why they might not want to spend to the upper limit just yet.

Yep I get that and it makes me sad thinking about it. The thing is if we don't have a group of consistent performers we essentially haven't completed the rebuild. If we never complete this rebuild then we might have to do it over again. It doesn't mean the Twins can't spend 130M per year I can just see why they might not want to just yet.

Agreed and I am not saying the Twins shouldn't spend up to 130M this year just that I am OK if they don't. A Machado or Harper Deal Should be good for the team long term as they are young proven star players. At some point the Twins are going to need to go long term with their best players. The Question I have for this team is exactly who is that right now? I agree the builds went much better for Houston and the Cubs the Indians seemed to have some stops and starts with theirs as well. The Twins have room for a big contract but I can see why they might want to wait as well. If their core doesn't perform I don't think they can buy their way out of that mess. They will have to wait for the next wave and that is three to four years away IMO.

I don't know I go back and forth on this issue all the time. If they spend the right way I would like them to be in the 130M range. But if you look at the way teams are going about rebuilds no one seems to start running up against the upper end of their budgets until the team has a core in place and is winning or in the playoff hunt. Houston didn't spend to the max during their rebuild, Cleveland didn't, the Cubs didn't, the White Sox haven't been. They all waited till they had a core in place and then spent money to extend players that were really good and fill in weak areas with free agents or through trades. Who is a part of the Twins core right now? Buxton? Sano? Kepler? Meija? Rosario? The Twins core is totally in flux we really have no consistent performers from last year other than maybe Gibson and Berrios and if you want to squint Rosario and Polanco. Is that a core you invest in early? If it were me I wouldn't but then I am not a huge gambler. That being said would I like to see the team spend as much money as possible or at least to MLB average? Sure I would. As we all say you can never have too much talent and if you do find a trading partner. I would love it if the team I love had a 200M budget to work with year in and year out, but they don't so I can see why they have to be a bit more careful than most clubs. Ultimately I am currently fine with the FO's approach to payroll. Once we have the talent in place though my expectations will change as Houston, Cleveland and the Cubs are all spending more than the league average since their teams have been competing for and in the playoffs. I would expect our ownership to do the same once we get there.