Dman

I do like Gipson-Long he can get K's when he wants it just the WHIP that needs work. He generally gives up way too much contact and even though he had fewer hits than innings pitched today he also walked three. There is potential there but he needs to be sharper more often. Nice to see Steer with a three hit, 2 walk day. Granted he didn't hit a HR but I like it when he gets on base and he scored three times as well. Gray looks like he might be out of his slump so that is good. He has hit well the last couple of games after being in a fairly long funk. The top of the order for Wichita seem to always be trying to outdo each other. Miranda won today with 3 hits 2 of them HR's but Ernie wasn't far behind with a HR and two hits. Palacios as well a HR and two hits. Some real magic at the top of the order this year. All three of those guys look ready to move up at the All Star break. Rooker continues to mash at AAA finally reaching his 900 OPS mark he likes to hang around in the minors. If he can just translate that to MLB we would have another great right handed HR bat. There are bats to like this year. Hopefully these guys stay healthy.

Man Julien is on fire. I can't remember a Twins prospect that had a 500 OBP through half the season. I think Ben Revere was close to batting 400 one half of a year but he rarely walked so his OBP never approached 500. The difficulty to get on Base every other at bat is so hard there is very little margin for error. If he keeps this up TD needs to do a serious piece on him. Happy to see Barnes have a really good outing after blowing up last time out. I still have my doubts but he sure pitched well allowing no hits through 5 innings. All the Lefties we have look like 5th starter types Thorpe, Smeltzer and Barnes. Barnes might have the best chance to make it, but when his stuff is off he is awful. Anyway if he keeps this up through the Trade deadline I bet they add him to the 40 man. Rooker continues to chug toward his typical 900 OPS in AAA. He just needs to find a way to carry that over to MLB play. He is the only big bat at AAA right now as well. Little known Ernie De La Trinidad has taken the BA and OPS lead at AA. He is now hitting better than Miranda. I know he and Contreras were neck and neck until Contreras got moved to AAA but the Twins are going to have some tough 40 man decisions or they might lose some guys to rule V again. Contreras is a plus defender whose bat is coming around and Ernie has good speed, a good bat and has been showing more power this year as well. Couple that with the outfield jam we already have and it will be hard to keep everyone around.

I am on the precipice but leaning your direction. If they could get two very solid prospects back one being an elite pitcher in return for Berrios that works out they save that 18 to 20 mil per year and they give their young pitching staff time to develop in 2022. We are making some dangerous assumptions that our young pitchers ARE going to work out. I agree with you that there are so many holes in the pitching staff it seems hard to believe they could cover them all even if they hang onto Jose. It is a gamble but rebuilds always are. The main thing is they have to get the right players back in return to make it all work. They have to find a team willing to give up a lot of prospect capital to make it worth it and I don't think it is going to be as easy as we think but who knows? I do agree that the young pitching is behind the young hitting making this second wave rebuild out of sync. resetting it by trading for younger hitters and pitchers to come up together could help even that out. If they can and or do trade away a good portion of the team at the deadline it should give the pitchers the development time they need to learn what they need to do to be successful and then we can see where things are at and try to fill in some hole via FA. The whole plan though hinges on the young pitching working out. If it doesn't a short rebuild becomes a long one.

If they cannot extend Berrios I think it will be hard for them to compete in 2022. With Berrios and Maeda at the top and Ober hopefully a 5th starter option they just have to add one Good free agent pitcher and possibly a vet on a one year deal or some combination of Duran, Balazovich, Winder or Sands for the 4th spot. If the pitching gets better next year and the pen resolves itself this team can compete next year. Without Berrios you have to essentially fill two top spots with longer FA contracts on older pitchers which I don't see the Twins doing or you have to rely more on the young pitching coming up. Given we haven't developed a starter since Berrios and it took him a year or two to adjust to MLB I think losing him makes competing in 2022 tougher. To me this whole team and or build process they are in is dependent on 2 of 6 arms (Duran, Balazovich, Winder, Sands, Canterino and Enlow) working out. By working out I mean mid rotation starters not 5th. They also need to find better pen arms although they cannot do worse than Colome so likely no place to go but up there. If the young pitching establishes it self I think this team is good to go. Unless a team just offers something to good to pass up then I think they should extend Berrios to give them a solid pitcher to build around. A guy who can take his turn every week and keep the team in games. I think the FO won't want to go into 2022 without Berrios because they cannot afford another year like this one. We will see what happens around the deadline.

Man Julien's OBP is at 485 almost two months into the season. I guess they are leaving him at A ball to get All-Star honors which he deserves. Another HR for him last night as well. He keeps taking good at bats even though it seems pitchers prefer to work around him. Javier keeps hitting and was 2 for 3 last night. If he gets his OPS up to 800 after his horrible start that will be saying something. Hitter of the night though was Smith who went 5 for 5. Man that is so hard to do. Smith is old for the level and doesn't walk much so has his work cut out for him but if he keeps that up he will be moving up. Miranda leading the charge for the Surge and staying in the 900 OPS club, De La Trinidad dropped out of the 900 OPS club. Pretty good night for most of the bats they just didn't quite score enough runs. I like Schulfer but I still feel he is a much better reliever than starter. Granted with so many guys hurt right now he isn't in anyone's way but I think his stuff plays better as a reliever.

If he will do do it for 5/80 I am on board especially given what they got out of Happ and Shoemaker for 10m this year. He is young durable and with slight improvement a potential All-Star type player or just under for the next four years. He takes good care of his body and takes the ball every 5th day. Why not do what you can to keep him especially with good pitching in short supply. With Maeda messed up he might be the one decent pitcher we can rely on next year and hopefully once the other guys come up we can fill out that rotation with more home grown guys. Unless the ask is absolutely unreasonable they should extend him IMO.

I tend to agree with you. For me as a person I would value that the team cares more about my long term health than a win. He knew he did his job and contributed to the win. An official "W" stat doesn't change that. He pitched well and I am fairly certain that is all he cares about. He pulled his weight, he did his job, He controlled what he could control. Would he have been fine going out for the 5th? I imagine he would have been, but as you said earlier in the thread I have to believe there is a plan in place for how much he gets used this year and he is aware of it. He has broken down every year of his career so no reason to be a hero in a spot where it isn't required. Once he and the team feel comfortable with him going longer I am sure there will be plenty of W's in his future. For now though I imagine he is happy to be doing well at the MLB level.

On the surface you look at his numbers in 18 and 19 and there are some troubling signs. Low average, not a great walk rate and a really poor slugging %. So what makes teams interested in a player like that? Just hoping for a rebound? They look at the decent K rate at 20% and low BABIP and say this is a player with a chance to bounce back? Just curious because he had a couple of rough back to back years and this year his slugging improved from 300 to 500 which is quite a jump. His BABIP is high right now but with the extra pop in the bat and ability to make contact not a huge concern. Do teams really see bounce backs like this coming or a solid filler guy for the minors to round out their system?

Thanks for reminding me about that. Ober has been a really good pitcher throughout his minors career but I don't believe he has had an injury free season to date. So probably best to take it slow and make sure to manage the arm and soreness he experiences. To date he has been made of glass. I agree they will only let him go so many innings this year since he has never topped 80 innings in a year yet. So pitch count will likely rule the day this year for him. I know he has complained in the past how his body feels after pitching so I would guess this all part of a strategy to see how far they dare push him without breaking him. FWIW I was mad they didn't pitch him this spring but I guess the reason they didn't was to save the arm for the season. I hope he continues to pitch well while out there. his run free innings have been valuable.

I was rooting for perfect night from Palacios but it was not meant to be. Still two more HR's and bumping that OPS to 900 makes you think he has a chance to make it. Would be nice if they moved him up soon as I am questioning the competition the Wind Surge have faced this year. The top four guys in the line up all have 900 OPS's. MIranda, De La Trinidad, Palacios and Hamilton. The rest of the lineup has a 700 OPS or better so makes me wonder if they are that good or other teams are not quite as good as normal. No one at High A has a 900 OPS and Steer who seems to have moved to HR or bust mode has had his share 0 fer's recently dropping his batting average to .248 and while Javier started out hitting below 200 with a 400 OPS he now has an OPS of 748. He homered again last night bringing his total to 6 he seems to be just getting better and better. Hope he keeps this up. For as much as I dog Rooker he appears to the best hitter they have in AAA right now with a 861 OPS. Guessing we will see more of him at MLB level this year and I hope his plate discipline is better this time around.

I have been watching Hamilton coming on strong and kind of waiting for his hot streak to end. He seems to only be getting more locked in. Starting to wonder if he won't be a rule V pick since hitting catchers are hard to come by. HIs defense is MLB ready from what I understand just the bat holding him back to this point. Lots of season left and catchers get injured and it affects performance so will have to wait and see but he is looking really good right now.

Yeah I tend to agree with you. If you squint hard you can see Steer and Julien as very good to star players but they are not top 100 players like Lewis, Kirilloff and Larnach were. Am hoping Urbina turns things around and Cavaco has the potential to be a star player if the bat comes around but it is pretty slim pickings right now IMO. You can see how depleted the system is just by the guys they are bringing in off the street to start. There are more guys I have never heard of than ever before and they all were like 30th round picks from other teams and non of them seem to be performing well either. They are just there to fill in as best I can tell. Like you said several promising pitchers but we have seen plenty of our guys perform well all the way up to AAA and never make a real difference at the MLB level. Pitching is just brutaly hard to project. Right now that 2020 draft is killing them. Sabato looks like a really bad pick so far and Soularie hasn't even played. The two teenagers a looong ways a way. So they have nothing to show for 2020 so far. The COVID year really did a number on our player development and FO decision making. I believe you are correct they need to have a really good draft in 2021 and they have a supplemental 1st to help make a difference.

Lol have to say I agree whole heartedly with your analysis. ?

Have to say I was bummed by Duran's outing. If the gameday box is correct the ump was doing him no favors with close pitches down in the zone and the other team was not swinging. I know he hasn't pitched much and has plenty of time to turn things around but with outings like this I do worry he looks more like a reliever than starter. Like Darwin22 I am a little concerned the reason some of the hitters in Wichita are doing so well is that Springfield doesn't have the best pitching staff and this will be their second time facing them. Still hitters have to hit so don't want to take too much away from them but it does concern me a little. Right now the pitching and lineup appears to be the best in the system at AA. If Miranda hits just as well at AAA where are Twins going to find room for him at the MLB level? Varland with another nice game and was saved by the pen as well. He looks like he has the velocity and pitches to be pretty good. Will know more once he gets to High A and the competition there will be better. Some interesting arms in A again with Varland, Mooney and Gipson-Long. Hopefully they do well once they move up.

The Twins have more in common with Tampa than NY or LA so I don't see them extending either player unless said player is willing to do a team friendly deal. They both are in their prime years and could be All Star players for the next four years or so. I don't begrudge them trying to make as much as they can in the open market. They have worked their whole lives for their one big payday opportunity and should work to get as much as they can. That being said if the Twins cannot extend them then they need to get the most value they can from each player. If they get the right kind of players back this doesn't have to be a complete tear down rebuild. They are going to need a couple of pitchers like Balazovich, Winder, Sands, Canterino to work out and hopefully they get a good pitcher in return for Berrios or Buxton. They also should be able to get a starter in FA and have plenty of 5th starter guys in the system right now. They have Larnach and Kirilloff establishing themselves along with Rortvedt, Jeffers and maybe Gordon getting there. They have Arraez and Polanco for four more years and Lewis, Palacios and Javier are in the wings for SS. I don't think the cupboard is bare after they trade Buxton and Berrios. Pitching is obviously the linch pin to them not being bad for a long period of time again and it is hard to predict if the guys they have will work out or not. It also seems to take time for young pitchers to adjust to MLB so there is plenty of risk but again if they can just find two guys that can be mid to top of the rotation guys I think they will be in good shape. While I know Buxton and Berrios are likely our two best players if the FO strikes the right deal they can still come out OK.

I started to think more about moving Kepler like you mentioned and depending on what they could get in return that might make some sense. I like Kepler because he plays very good defense in right field and he can fill in at centerfield. His slugging % is really good as well but then there is Larnach. Larnach needs a place to play and he can play in right. He is not the at the same level defensively as Kepler but he likely will end up being better offensively. Kirilloff can handle left and when they want a right handed bat out there they can use Garlick or Rooker if he ever gets a grip on the strike zone. If they Keep Gordon as a Utility guy instead of Astudillo then they would still have an emergency centerfielder as well. I would think Keplers versatility, power and fairly low cost salary would appeal to some clubs but I haven't researched which ones. It would help get rid of redundancy in the outfield, save on salary and hopefully net a star prospect in return. Also would help clear a 40 man spot. Twins might not want to do that but it seems at least viable to me. At any rate I think they should look at all their players closely and decide if a deal makes sense or not. Especially with how many player they might need to protect this coming year unless they want to live through another Baddoo scenario.

OK here is my biased not overly objective new top 20. Some newer guys haven't played so I had a tough time judging them and didn't put them in. I didn't put Rooker in the top 20 because he is pretty old to be a prospect IMO. A lot of my picks were based on a what have you done for me lately view and not strictly potential so there are likely flaws but my list is below. 1) Royce Lewis 2) Jordan Balazovic 3) Jhoan Duran 4) Josh Winder 5) Jose Miranda 6) Cole Sands 7) Matt Canterino ? Keoni Cavaco 9) Blayne Enlow 10) Edouard Julien 11) Gileberto Celestino 12) Matt Wallner 13) Spencer Steer 14) Wander Javier 15) Misael Urbina 16) Chris Vallimont 17) Jermaine Palacios 18) Aaron Sabato 19) Jovani Moran 20) Louie Varland

I have been intrigued by the two late round catcher's Isola and Schmidt. They both have OPS's 860 or higher and as many walks as K's so they look like pretty solid hitters moving forward. Schmidt's BABIP is high at 400 right now so there will be some regression in his 900 OPS in fact he has already been regressing this past week at least but keeping the walks and K's in line he should be just fine. Isola looks like the real deal right now. Hard to say if those numbers continue to translate up the levels but he looks rock solid as a hitter moving forward. He K's more than Miranda but his BABIP is normalized and with HR power his OPS sits at 865 so I think the Twins might have something here. Mooney and Varland look like they have front to mid rotation starter potential. There is a long way to go but they look elite right now. Varland had some control issues early but seems to have worked through that. He is a K machine and looks like he may have been a hidden gem picked in the 15th round. Mooney seems to be on a lower pitch count but he has been very effective all year. Don't know much about him other than he get lots of K's and doesn't let runs score. Winder and Sands continue to look like Guys that should be under consideration to be added early to the 40 man and checked out at the MLB level this year. They have to add them at the end of the season anyway so why not see how they perform in a lost year so they can be better in 2022? I would say the same for Jovani Moran as well. I think I am back on the Wander Javier bandwagon. He has been in my doghouse for so long though that I need to give it just a little more time. Very happy to see him doing so well. Well enough that the Twins will likely have to add him to the 40 man this year. I have a few underdog guys that I like to follow and Ernie De La Trinidad is one of them. I had a hard time following him in 2019 as his hit tool was so bad but he is back to his plucky self this year hitting with a bit more power, keeping the K's down and the contact up. He has a 300 average at AA which is not easy to maintain at that level and an 850 OPS. I think he could still be a good 4th outfielder in MLB but doubt he can get in with the Twins with all the talent they have in the outfield. Hopefully he just keeps doing great things so they can't ignore him. Anyway I am happy to see him doing well this year.

That is the sticky wicket it doesn't look like Cruz or Pineda will bring back much more than a top 10 to 20 player in another system so unlikely a player with "star" potential. It would have to be one of the players you mention which is always scary because the team getting major league talent has a much better idea of what they are getting than the team getting the prospect because you just never know if their talent\potential will translate to MLB. It is always sad to be the team trading away good talent to receive potential talent but there is a point where you just have to take that leap of faith IMO. I think now is the time because this team is starting to remind me of the mediocre White Sox we used to beat up on before they started a massive rebuild. They went for high quality star type players and they seem to be doing OK. We don't have the talent they had to trade but I think now is the time to jump start the next wave because if they wait for draft comp on Berrios and Buxton it won't line up as well with the young players they have coming up right now. Adding players closer to ready if they turn out could boost the team up but if the players they choose don't turn out then we really are stuck. The deals to get our better players will have to be overpays and at positions we need moving forward. Maybe that means a three team trade but whatever it takes it would need to make sense for our team moving forward. There are a fair number of rentals out there and teams generally gravitate toward players that meet their needs for the lowest price. Most of the high revenue teams seem near the cap so money could be a factor this year as well. Someone is going to have to really like someone on our team to get a deal done and I am not sure we have anything other than maybe Berrios who would be overly appealing as an overpay. Here's hoping this FO can work a little magic at the deadline but I wouldn't bank on it.

I have been wondering about this in the back of my mind as it seems several pitches just don't have the same level of control they have had in the past. I just don't have enough info though to make an informed decision. If MLB is contemplating penalties it will be interesting to see who gets hit by them.

I think there is some truth to what you are saying. We know hard hit rate is something they believe in and try to instill throughout the system. The math (analytics) makes sense as it does appear to correlate with a higher OPS but if you get away from plate discipline and going oppo you can make a player one dimensional as well and I don't know if they consider that or not. It could mean that guys not doing well for us do better elsewhere because the philosophy changes and they go oppo more or shorten the stroke after two strikes. Hard to say but when you can shift heavily to the pull side you just are not going to get an expected BABIP and that will drive down a players OPS. At any rate I agree with you that they play favorites with certain analytics and I don't think it has proven successful just yet. On the pitching side they are looking for velocity as all teams are and they are interested in movement. Littell definitely had the movement and velo had been ticking up until injury. He was giving up significant contact and I believe he had through most of his time in the high minors but he had enough K's to get by. I think in the end they looked at FIP and xFIP and decided he was a borderline pen arm for them. They did not see high upside and to that point it appears they were right but they went against that whole philosophy when they signed Colome who doesn't throw hard either. Granted he had a track record of success but changing their philosophy bit them hard. It makes me wonder what they see or don't see with certain players. I know they can only control so much as players have to perform but I am starting to question the path forward and the analytics leading them there. They are smart guys and have way more info than I do but somehow they have taken the talent they have and made it mediocre or worse. The farm while deep with solid talent doesn't look like it has many bonafide star players with Larnach and Kirilloff likely no longer prospects it leaves Lewis who is more wild card than sure thing. Maybe Miranda and Duran or Balazovic but with their slow starts hard to tell where they are at and Duran is no sure thing as a starter. I hope they can make some deals and get some higher level talent in the system as I think they are going to need the depth. If they don't start developing pitching soon IMO they are sunk and their jobs likely lost because they will be going through a lengthily rebuild once again and I don't think the fans or the owner will have the stomach for that. I am sure they will stick with the plan whatever that is but I hope they can make some deals to turn this team around.

Enlow is out injured and it looks like Rijo might be as well. Vallimont is giving up a lot of contact yet so not sure I could see promoting him right away to MLB. It might be nice to give Sands and Winder a chance at MLB later this year if they hold their own until the trade deadline. Winder seems to have settled into throwing strikes, he is older and there is nothing in his numbers to indicate he shouldn't get a chance. I think Sands but I need to see more. It would be nice if he could get the walks down just a bit, but he looks pretty good right now so far. He could be a candidate as well. I think those are the only two though that I would add early. The larger issue is going to be trying to find room for three Shortstops in Lewis, Palacios and Javier. We already have Polanco, Arraez and Gordon at 2nd and Miranda will need to be added or lost. I know they can lose Simmons but they will likely need to sign an experienced SS over the winter because all three of the SS added lack experience. If they do add all of them maybe they just rotate through them hard to say but they can't really carry all three if they decide to sign someone as well. They have to get rid of one of either Gordon, Polanco, Arraez or Miranda they can't keep all four. If they are willing to get rid of Astudillo hopefully at the deadline then they can possibly carry three using one as a utility player. Again if Palacios is still OPSing 800 like right now or even 700 they should add him early and have him play at the MLB level. He is 24 and they need to know what they have before the end of the season. If they are not true believers in Palacios then I would recommend trying to include him in a trade to another team for a comparable SS that doesn't need to be added right away and give them Palacios and let them figure out if they want to add him or not. If they hang onto him and decide to add him early and he does reasonably well then maybe they have the shortstop position covered for next year as they wait for Lewis and Javier to develop but they should figure that out sooner rather than later IMO. Normally I don't worry about adding relievers but Zach Neff and Jovani Moran have had some pretty decent numbers and given how other teams love grabbing our relievers would be nice if they made room for him as well. There is a lot of season left and the trade deadline could shake things up even more so hard to say what they will do but given where things are right now those are my thoughts.

Yeah I agree with you. I thought it was strange they gave up on him so soon especially with the injury. I know they wanted to clear 40 man space and I guess they assumed he would sign with them and not elect free agency but they were wrong so it went sideways on them. They didn't trust him on the 40 man and he obviously didn't see a clear path making it back on the 40 man with the Twins so he went somewhere he thought might give him a better chance. Makes sense to me but the Twins lost out big time. It seems like their 40 man construction has been lacking. Especially when it comes to pen arms. They took big risks this past year in not adding Baddoo and Miranda and Baddoo got taken and to what end so they could claim Waddell, Gibaut, and Hamilton? What if a team had selected Miranda as well? Two likely top 10 prospects would have been poached. Sometimes I think they outsmart themselves. They kept Chalmers on the 40 man even though they never used him in spring training and the guy can't throw a strike when he wants to let alone needs to. They didn't have Ober pitch this spring either. Why not give him some time facing some actual major league hitters before the season started? He was on the 40 man. Too often they do things even a amateur armchair GM wouldn't do. I hate to second guess because I don't have all the info and other teams mess up as well but I am starting to lose my trust in their decision making. They are going to have some serious 40 man decisions coming up with Royce Lewis, Jermaine Palacios, Wander Javier and Jose Miranda likely needing to be added as well as Winder, Sands, Enlow, Vallimont, Rijo, and maybe Neff needing to be added. Right now I don't have a lot of confidence they will pick the right players but there is not going to be room for all of them so they best choose wisely. There might be more candidates but those are ones I can think of.

Yeah I think you are right. It has been hard to pry top prospects loose from any teams at the deadline recently and I think that is what the Twins would be looking for if they are going to trade Berrios or Buxton. Maybe they can get a team to overpay but the odds seem pretty low. If Berrios keeps pitching this well though one of the top revenue generating teams could make a move feeling that they can sign him long term. He is only 27 right now heading into his prime, has had no durability issues and is a sub 4 ERA pitcher most of his career. The bigger question would be if we match up prospect wise to get a deal done with NY, BOS, LA, PHI, SF etc? Might take a three team deal to get it done but I could see it happening. He has to continue to pitch well down the stretch to be wanted and willing to move valuable prospects for, but his age and health make him a pretty valuable target IMO. Buxton seems too risky to get what the Twins would need to move him. Injury prone players don't generally bring back much. If he is a missing piece for a team heading to the post season maybe they pony up? It just seems very remote to me that the Twins will trade him.

I don't know this team has been up and down since 2016. In 2016 they were dead last in the division and headed no where. Then in 2017 they somehow magically won the Wild card. 2018 they were bad enough to trade away at the deadline. 2019 they managed to win the division and 100 games, 2020 was smoke and mirrors but they won the division. 2021 looks like a bad luck year with several guys needing to either be resigned or traded for best value. With some luck they could be good enough for a wild card next year hard to say. Sometimes things go your way sometimes they don't. Haven't seen total system failure like this from a team expected to compete for the top spot in the division but if they make the right moves Trading or extending this can still be a very good in the near future. I guess what I am ultimately saying is firing people and calling them incompetent doesn't make a lot of sense given the way this team has performed the last 6 years. They have been up and down and I believe the main reason has been pitching. When it is there they have been good when not they have not. The FO really needs those young pitchers to develop and make a difference at the MLB level and then we will all be saying what a great team we have and how the FO is so good at identifying talent. For me it is too early to call this year anything but unlucky. Let's make some moves get some guys ready and see what happens next year.