Richie the Rally Goat

Expanding on this point and addressing the OP: In 2021 Griffin Jax pitched the most innings of any pitcher currently on the roster. This team needs to rely on quad-A types worse than Jax to get through the season, no way do they limit him to the one-inning opener role. He’s the workhorse of the rotation

Great post @mikelink45 I really appreciate your writing and passion. The north pole segment was very engaging and I think does a great job of converging trains of thought in the discussion. Accessibility means something different today than it did 60 years ago. I tend to align with @DJL44 and @Monkeypaws to a large extent. Organized sports are not as accessible for most kids, expensive time consuming, and there's many priorities to weigh. Leisure time, spending it independent of your family is dangerous, I can't just let my kids run wild in the neighborhood... organized activities is how my kids get their sports time. It's important to me and so I go to the practices and swim meets and such, but my capacity to attend this stuff is limited (as is my budget). The boomers all scoff and call me a helicopter dad and hearken back to the days when they (and I did as a gen Xer) ran wild in the neighborhood and played a game of pickup baseball and caught fireflies at dusk and came home when mom called out the back door, but things have changed. It doesn't work that way anymore, it can't. It's not a good or bad thing, it just is. So back then, it was bringing a way to play, to relax, to have fun to every corner of the globe. Today we bring different ways to play, relax, have fun into our homes. Parents generally acknowledge sedentary past times are less desirable, I want my kids to be outside more, to play a pickup game baseball in the local park, but I can't supervise the never ending all summer long game. I have a 60 hour work week, responsibilities, a home to maintain that feels like is falling in around me as I type, my own exercise to not be an entirely sedentary human, and do my best to at least once a week go do an outdoor activity with my kids, hike/snowshoe, sledding, bicycling, etc. And the weekend is when I catch up on all the stuff I didn't do during the week. So what is accessible? It's something that can be done, easily, unconstrained. Sounds like the old days right? I'm the constraint, as is the MLB's antiquated delivery mechanisms. I acknowledge that, even if the MLB does not. But my kids need some fun, ways to hang out with their friends that is unconstrained, independent of me. Videogames are fun, they make you think and require some creativity and can be played with your friends, they don't involve me driving them somewhere and I can supervise from my office. I'm no longer the constraint, and I like to play video games with them. Video games are accessible and cheap. You don't necessarily need expensive hardware, and Fortnite (as well as many others) is free. Baseball, especially MLB, is expensive and exclusive to the detriment of the game. Baseball has changed, some for the better, some for the worse, but not for accessibility. We took it to the North Pole, but not into our homes.

To that point, I don’t believe they will use openers because they can’t afford the roster spots devoted to one inning pitchers. piggy backing, absolutely likely in my mind. I picture a 7 man rotation in 5 games

Many of the hitters are more “certain”… less intriguing as it seems like we know what we have. None of ‘em are the next Ken Griffey Jr, but there’s some quality to continue to build around. While there’s a couple “relatively certain” ones, the Pitchers generally have a lower floor and a higher ceiling than the hitters. I’m intrigued by the variability

Mod note: keep to subject. Ranking of Royce Lewis

Agreed, I don’t think he is a sink or swim prospect yet. The FO might even give him a quick week or two in high A if ST wasn’t enough to knock the rust off (or if there is no ST in ‘22)

I don't think the pundits really matter, but it makes sense that his status would drop to the pundits. Recent draftees are usually ranked higher, Lewis is no longer a spring chicken. I think what matters is value to the Twins relatively to other Front Offices. Clearly he's still valuable to the Twins, it's unclear his value in trade to other FOs. As has been floated in the thread that Lewis may start the year in AAA, does that signal relative value of Lewis? In other words, would the Twins risk overwhelming him, if they really valued him that much? He's hardly played in 2 years, only played 39 games in AA, the jump immediately to AAA would signify to me he's a sink or swim prospect (at risk of no longer being a prospect)

If you want to limit the market to US, population growth is regressing, 1% growth or less. That’s a hell of a business to hang your hat on

it's not just the traditional NHL, NBA NFL, All of the professional football/soccer leagues that the MLB has to compete with. eSports are also growing rapidly. Approx 340m people went to or watched an MLB game in 2021, down 13% from 2019. 728 million people streamed eSports in 2021 a 10% CAGR from 2020 and is expected to see 10-18% CAGR over the horizon. The revenue for eSports hasn't caught up to MLB yet, but Microsoft just announced acquisition of Activision for $68 billion. eSports is a big part of the appeal for that acquisition. The revenue is coming. Competition is fierce and MLB/MLBPA can't afford to let their competitors eat their lunch for them.

Kent Hrbek. I acknowledge that in other threads of this nature, I held my Puckett stance. Puckett did fan my flames of Twins-fandom, but Hrbek lit them. After our last meltdown event, getting to hear him in person, and his legacy only being strengthened with time, Hrbek was, and is, awesome!

Welcome to TD!

To get around to answering the OP, as a front office, maybe 60%, which is quite significant considering it takes years to develop a single player, let alone the hundreds of players, coaches, scouts etc to build an org

They are two people with different skills and responsibilities. I have a harder time separating the two, but generally align with you that Falvey has done a better job with building and the culture and strategy than Levine has done executing. Levine has pulled off some great trades, but is almost gun shy on free agency edit to add: not sure if I can parse out credit, but generally talent development coaching feels light years ahead of the Ryan/Smith era. Even established players like Polanco and Buxton took significant steps forward. That part seems like both Falvey and Levine

If Levine extended him and traded him in the same offseason, Levine would lose all credibility and struggle to sign or extend players the rest of his front office career. No way that happens. If a trade is not in the works, I too, would extend Arraez for all the reasons listed in the OP.

Do you have to hit home runs to DH? Why? Was Paul Molitor a bad DH because of that? I understand liking Rod Carew alot, he's a high bar to clear, one of the best to ever don a Twins Uni. Isn't that a complement? What's so wrong with that?

I like Arraez, don’t trade him because you have depth, but… 1) The Twins are woefully short at pitcher, especially starting 2) very few options in free agent starting pitching 3) need to give value in trade to get value in trade If Arraez really is “under valued” as the OP states, hang on to him, he’s more valuable to the Twins than in trade. if another team values him enough as the centerpiece of a deal that brings back good controllable starting pitching that doesn’t part with too many prospects, pull the trigger. as others have mentioned depth is critical, that goes for pitching too. There’s even less depth pitching than hitting.

Hi Bill Great question! We don’t have a Saints specific section, but the Minor League Forum is quite good. The articles written about the minor league affiliates get posted to the main news page, but the forums is where the discussion happens. Hope this helps and welcome to TD. Sconnie

“Va” means “go” en espanol so “No go” as an outfielder is less exciting but I do like “Johnny Shoe” Juan Zapata has a very big league feel

Why?

I’d move Tampa to Charlotte (instead of adding a team to the Carolinas) and add a team to San Antonio instead to draw additional Mexico fans and take advantage that San Antonio only has the Spurs agreed on 1 & Montreal, & 3

I added per person income to your table. How much income does the city have to buy tickets, shirseys, etc? Cost of living isn't here, but Orlando as a US city is more expensive than Mexico City and lower average income. San Antonio or Austin and Montreal would be candidates to me. Metropolitan area Country Population Has Team Closet Team Distance Per Person annual income USD Mexico City Mexico 20892724 N Houston 750 26,636 Guadalajara Mexico 4887383 N Houston 800 26,520 Monterrey Mexico 4689601 N Houston 420 26,232 Montreal Canada Canada 4045877 N Boston 250 67,461 Puebla Mexico 2941988 N Houston 750 26,500 Vancouver Canada Canada 2509942 N Seattle 120 56,000 Charlotte United States 2426363 N Atlanta 230 56,682 Portland United States 2389228 N Seattle 140 40,526 Orlando United States 2387138 N Tampa Bay 80 25,664 San Antonio United States 2384075 N Houston 190 115,000 Sacramento United States 2274194 N San Francisco 80 94,000 Toluca Mexico 2202886 N Houston 770 15,936 San Juan Puerto Rico Puerto Rico 2196538 N Miami 1000 20,100 Las Vegas United States 2114801 N Las Angeles 220 96,000 Columbus United States 2021632 N Cleveland/Cincinnati 100 24,721 Austin United States 2000860 N Houston 100 103,000 Indianapolis United States 1988817 N Cincinnati 150 65,678 San Jose United States 1976836 N San Francisco 45 107,000 Tijuana Mexico 1840710 N San Diego 15 26,342

Stratifying revenue by payroll already happens. Every team that tanks knows ticket sales are tanking with the salaries and yet the tanking continues…

Advertising is on the revenue side of the ledger, but yes that is the leverage players are trying to wield, and why the owners locked out the players. All that non-player cost listed… it’s only on average about 10% of the cost of goods sold. On average 90% of the cost of goods sold is player salary. The CBA is critical for both sides.

It won’t improve a 60 win team, it does eliminate the incentive to tank. shedding salary down to nothing improves COGS. If you are limited in reduction of COGS the value in tanking is almost nil as the number 1 or 2 draft pick is just barely more likely than 10 to be a viable star ball player. tanking sucks, it’s awful to watch, and I’m terrified Falvey and Levine are going to do it, and we’ll get stuck watching crappy ball