Steve Lein

As your Twins Daily AFL report writer, this is a very legitimate point. There seem to be several comments aimed at diminishing what Martin accomplished there when it should be quite the opposite, in my opinion. Just look at Royce Lewis. During the 2019 season with Fort Myers (then high-A) and Pensacola (double-A), Lewis hit a combined .236/.290/.371 with a well-below .700 OPS at both stops (.661 overall). Quite frankly, his bat never justified the bump to double-A, but I'm certain it happened because they wanted to get him out of the Florida State League environment and see what he'd do. Then he went and hit .353/.411/.565 (.976 OPS) in the AFL and took home the MVP award. There was some downtime in there (injury, Covid) afterward, but he didn't miss a beat from that when he got back on the field and made an immediate impact upon his major league debut. The parallel to Austin Martin is undeniable, here. Martin hit .241/.368/.317 (.685 OPS) in 2022 with Wichita (double-A), then went to the AFL and was undeniably one of the best players, hitting .374/.454/.482 (.936 OPS). The difference between them is Lewis displayed more power (9 2B's, 3 HR) and drove in runs (20 RBI) from the middle of the lineup, while Martin got on base, created more havoc while there, and scored runs from the top of the lineup. Different types of hitters for sure, but they accomplished basically the same things in their own ways. You were likely already wrong once about the AFL with Lewis, don't be that guy again with Martin. 😂

Remember, Duran will not be able to "unleash the nastiest repertoire [you] have ever seen" as a starting pitcher. Those 99-103's will have to be scaled back to 94-98's, etc... Don't bite the hand that's feeding you.

Hate it. I've been all over the boards stating that Pablo Lopez was the one supposedly available Miami starting pitcher I would NOT trade Luis Arraez for. I care very little that they also got an A-ball "top prospect" back at this point.

I don't really share this concern. The Twins already demonstrated they have rotation depth they can tap this past season to cover any inevitable injuries. Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson; Maeda you mention will also be back. I'm not acquiring Lopez because insurance for this is the idea around what the team gains. In fact, I'm flat-out not targeting him because he might be no better a pitcher. I agree 100% that I don't want Lopez if Arraez is the cost. Have to aim higher with a perennial-batting-champ-contender type hitter, IMO.

I don't have a link or anything to share, but I'm fairly certain while covering the AFL this year, I saw mentions of the Twins/him kind of taking the Buxton approach: Okay we tried, just go out and do your thing now. But I also think the injuries played a big role in his "underperformance" this season. After taking a month off he came back and finished September with an .827 OPS. Then he rode that momentum into a .936 OPS in the AFL. I said this to summarize his performance there in the last of my AFL updates: "I’ve followed this league for a long time, and just like Royce Lewis’ MVP campaign of 2019 (where he had a .975 OPS after a .661 in the regular season), this performance absolutely should restore some prospect luster for Austin Martin. Now the Twins just need to find him a position, but I can see him functioning as a very athletic super-utility type when it comes to defense in the majors, much like how Luis Arraez got his start."

Personally, I highly prefer any of these options over Pablo Lopez, especially if Luis Arraez is the cost of doing business. While I don't think Lopez is a bad pitcher by any means, I don't think he is better, nor has the potential to be better, than Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober, or Kenta Maeda. He's more of the same. Mid-rotation at his best (he was not particularly good for most of the 2022 season). I'd rather have the potential of these other Marlin's guys to get more than that, and the difference between 2 years of control or 4+ also looms large.

I disagree... Lopez is the last of the supposedly available Miami pitchers I would want, especially for Luis Arraez. I started a whole thread on trading for Marlins pitching ->

At a minimum, I think you're devaluing Luis Arraez here. I don't think BTV is gospel, but Arraez is the best player on their site in any trade involving Marlins pitchers Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, or Max Meyer. Kepler/etc... is the tax. Edit: Actually Lopez is, I remember being confused by their valuation of him in comparison to all the others. Because Lopez is the one I'd want the least, and he has by far the least team control left.

This is all the Twins 40-man roster and injury issues during the 2022 season coming home to roost. Enlow, in my opinion, has the potential that you don't jettison for what they added. But, there's not a whole lot for them to jettison at this point, even if there are names there I would have DFA'd instead. I'd be extremely surprised if he isn't claimed.

"5. Target Field upped the fanfare this season. Late in the 2022 season, Target Field began dimming the lights during Jhoan Duran’s entrance song. To my knowledge, the Twins have never done that for a pitcher, especially one who is not a closer. Jorge Lopez also got the dimmed lights treatment with his horror movie-themed walkout. Walkout songs have always been a bit of a show (remember Fernando Rodney's electric entrance?), but they became their own spectacle this season due in part to the Mets’ Edwin Diaz’s viral walkout song "Narco." Pitcher entrances across the league became their show within the show this season, and the Twins kept pace. " While I loved this (re)development, it in fact is not the first time, or the best they have done with, something like this for their closer ?. Apologies, but that title belongs to Jon Rauch and his entrance to Metallica's "Wherever I May Roam" during the inaugural 2010 season. This video doesn't do it justice, but it was far more epic than Duran's also good one.

I'm partial to Jack Stacks for the Kansas City BBQ experience. Burnt ends are *chefs kiss*!

Apparently, Correa's Constitution modifier is like -2.

I also technically think they could afford to sign both (a large chunk of a Rodon salary comes off the pitching staff books after this season). Say $32.5MIL for Correa and $25MIL for Rodon. Make the Carlos' happen!

Correa, 100%. I just think the odds on that are extremely low already. Correa obviously wants to get paid over choosing his preferred destination, if the Twins would even be that. SF will outbid anything the Twins put together.

If the Twins aren't getting Correa, absolutely.

I would highly prefer Luzardo or Cabrera to Lopez, especially in anything where Arraez is something the Twins send.

Losing Arraez in a trade would feel bad because he's a universal fan-favorite (myself included). But that's kind of the issue when evaluating any deal with him in it. We very likely could be overvaluing him. That said, I don't think anything else of much substance needs to be added to a deal with Arraez in it for Pablo Lopez. He's not a better potential pitcher than, in my opinion, four guys already on the staff in Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Heck, Bailey Ober was arguably as good or better (when healthy) in 2022 than Lopez was as well. So, I don't see the necessity here to go after Lopez. I'd be shooting for a potential improvement on what is already here (e.g.: Rodon) or someone just as good (e.g.: Bassitt) which they can get without sending off the best hitter in baseball. A deal with Arraez in it that I would want to see would also include a prospect or two in our top 10 to land that Bluefin from the ocean instead of the walleye from our 10,000 lakes (to borrow Boras' metaphor).

You think Rodon is getting 6yr/$180MIL?! Ludacris. I mean, I know some of the contracts this year have been a bit higher than expected, but he's not getting as much guaranteed as Jacob DeGrom did. If he gets more than $130MIL I'd be surprised.

I think I'd be trying to sign Carlos Rodon now instead of Correa. This type of money isn't what the Twins are gonna invest unless you take Boras' "fishing in the ocean" comment as "they're actually willing to spend that money now" instead of a slight dig akin to "they're out of their league" like I do.

They did, and he's actually the top-rated pitcher on my own prospect list, but he also hasn't pitched (officially) since he had TJS, and only 28 total innings in his entire college career... An assumption that he'll be a quick mover is misplaced I think. He'll pitch with kid gloves on him in 2023, and I don't think it's a sure thing he's pitching with a full-season affiliate to start the year because of that.

Edouard Julien and Austin Martin again had strong weeks to close out their AFL seasons. They even hit their team into the Championship Game. Were they able to win it? Keep reading to find out, and how all the Minnesota Twins prospects performed to finish up their AFL campaigns. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey (Wichita Wind Surge), Steve Buhr (Cedar Rapids Kernels) Game Results: Tuesday, 11/8 | Glendale 9, Peoria 3 Wednesday, 11/9 | Glendale 10, Mesa 4 Thursday, 11/10 | Salt River 2, Glendale 5 The Glendale Desert Dogs finished their season strong, going 3-0 in their final three games to secure the #2 spot in the standings. In the past, this meant they’d be playing in the AFL Championship game, but the league implemented a four-team playoff this season so they would have to win another game to make it that far. IF Austin Martin Week: 4-for-12, 4 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB (3 games) Overall: .373/.454/.482 (.936 OPS) Martin finished his AFL season with another solid week, batting .333 in three games and continuing to be a menace from the top of the order, scoring at least one run in each. He played center field in his first game of the week, then was back at shortstop for the last two. In Tuesday’s win over Peoria, he helped key a six-run fifth inning with a single that loaded the bases. He’d later score on a bases-loaded single and finished 1-for-5. He was 2-for-4 and scored two runs in Wednesday’s 10-4 win over Mesa, leading off the game with a single, advancing to second base on a wild pitch, and scampering home on Edouard Julien’s single that followed for the game's first run. He’d cross the plate for the second time in the eighth to cap the Desert Dogs scoring on the game. He did it a little differently in Thursday’s win over Salt River, finishing 1-for-3 but that lone hit, a single in the sixth inning, drove in two runners to tie the game at two, and Glendale went on to add three more runs in the frame to take the game and secure their playoff position. Martin was the epitome of your “prototypical leadoff hitter” in his time in the desert, getting on base at a .454 clip (ranking 6th in AFL play), stealing 10 bases (3rd), and scoring 23 runs in 21 games (2nd, to only Julien’s 24). His .936 OPS also ranked 11th in the circuit, while his 31 total hits were second to League MVP Heston Kjerstad’s 35, and his .373 batting average came in at third overall. I’ve followed this league for a long time, and just like Royce Lewis’ MVP campaign of 2019 (where he had a .975 OPS after a .661 in the regular season), this performance absolutely should restore some prospect luster for Austin Martin. Now the Twins just need to find him a position, but I can see him functioning as a very athletic super-utility type when it comes to defense in the majors, much like how Luis Arraez got his start. IF Edouard Julien Week: 5-for-7, 3 R, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K (2 games) Overall: .400/.563/.686 (1.249 OPS) Julien saw action in two of their three wins on the week, batting second in each and serving as the second baseman in one and designated hitter in the other. He got on base in four of his five trips to the plate against the Javelinas on Tuesday, finishing 2-for-3 with a run scored, RBI, and two walks. In Wednesday’s big win over Mesa, it was Julien driving the ship, as his three singles in four at-bats led to three RBI and a pair of runs scored. Two of his hits came in a seven-run eighth inning that the Desert Dogs used to blow the game open. He led off the inning with a single and trotted home on a home run to the next batter that gave Glendale the lead 5-4. After they had batted around, his two-RBI single made the score 9-4. He also drew a walk to reach base in four of five trips for the second time during the week. While he didn’t take home the AFL MVP award (Heston Kjerstad is a top 100 prospect, which has always factored into this award’s voting), instead having to settle for the Breakout Player of the Year Award, Julien was the best hitter in the entire AFL this year by a decent margin. He ranked first in runs scored (24), walks (23), batting average (.400), on-base percentage (.563), and OPS (1.249). He was also third in total hits (28), second in slugging percentage (.686), tied for second in home runs (5), tied for third in RBI (17), and also stole six bases which ranked top ten in his 21 games played. If Julien wasn’t a top-ten Minnesota Twins prospect before this, he should be there firmly now. Just imagine the pitch counts a lineup starting with Martin, Julien, and Luis Arraez could run up on starters in the majors someday soon. C/1B Alex Isola Week: 2-for-6, 1 R, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB (2 games) Overall: .228/.343/.316 (.659 OPS) Like Julien, Isola made the start in two of the Desert Dogs' three games on the week, playing first base in the games on Tuesday and Thursday. He scored a run and drew two walks in his first game of the week, finishing 1-for-3 out of the sixth spot in the lineup. He moved up to the cleanup position in the batting order for Thursday’s win over Salt River, and his two-RBI double in the sixth inning broke a 2-2 tie and put the Desert Dogs out front for good. While Isola didn’t see as much action at the catcher position as he may have liked, he did improve as a hitter as the season wore on, moving into the middle of Glendale’s batting order for the final few weeks of the season after beginning as their number nine hitter. He also displayed a strong eye at the plate, drawing 10 walks compared to just 11 strikeouts on the season in his 16 games. His five doubles also matched Julien’s total and were second on the Desert Dogs to just Austin Martin on the season. RHP Jon Olsen Week: Did not pitch Overall: 2-1, 5.27 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, .288 BAA, 10 BB, 17 K (13 2/3 IP) Olsen did not pitch in any of Glendale’s final regular season games, but that was because they had him slotted for something better, which we will recap further below. Overall on the season, Olsen’s stats may not look that great in the above, but what was important for him was getting some innings against increased competition after missing multiple seasons of development time. He recovered from a poor first outing in the AFL to be solid down the stretch, getting the win and allowing just one earned run in his last two starts. Over those final seven innings, he gave up just four hits, walked two, and struck out eight. LHP Denny Bentley Week: Did not pitch Overall: 1-0, 3.18 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, .189 BAA, 14 BB, 9 K (11 1/3 IP) The left-handed Bentley did not make any appearances in the final three games of the AFL regular season, but he did pitch in the playoffs. He ends his regular season campaign with a solid ERA and batting average against numbers, but the walks remain worrisome as he issued them at a far higher rate than he piled up strikeouts. He has excelled particularly against same-sided hitters, but the command of his pitches will continue to be an area to work on for him. He ended his 2022 season in the bullpen of the Wichita Wind Surge, and I’d expect him to remain there to start the 2023 season. RHP Ryan Shreve Week: 1 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (1 appearance) Overall: 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .152 BAA, 8 BB, 12 K (14 2/3 IP) Shreve was the only pitcher to make an appearance in any of the regular season games this week, and it came Wednesday’s win over Mesa. He was the first reliever summoned in the game, with one out in the bottom of the fourth after Glendale’s starter had given up the lead. He came in with a runner on third base and walked the first batter, but recovered to strike out the next two and keep the Solar Sox from expanding their lead. Back out for the fifth, he delivered a one-two-three inning, needing just five pitches to do so. Shreve was one of the Desert Dogs' top performers out of their bullpen, ranking second on their team in ERA (1.84) and WHIP (1.02) while holding hitters to a team-best .152 batting average against. He gave up a few walks early in the campaign, but over his final three weeks struck out seven compared to just two walks allowed in his final 6 2/3 innings. RHP Francis Peguero Week: Did not pitch Overall: 1-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .227 BAA, 8 BB, 9 K (11 IP) Like three of the other four pitchers on this list, Peguero did not make an appearance in any of Glendale’s final three regular-season games but did see action in the playoffs. New to the Minnesota Twins organization for 2022 after being part of the Sonny Gray trade package from the Cincinnati Reds, there wasn’t a lot known about this pitcher. While he walked basically nobody during the season with Wichita, that number spiked significantly in AFL play. Despite that, he was still good at keeping runs off the scoreboard, finishing several of the games for the Desert Dogs. AFL Playoffs Friday, 11/11 - Semifinal | Peoria 3, Glendale 6 In the semifinal game against the Peoria Javelinas on Friday, the Twins' own Jon Olsen made the start for the home team. He went the first two innings, pitching a scoreless first before running into trouble in the second. He got two quick outs, but the next five hitters would reach base via walks or singles before they were able to escape by catching a runner trying to advance an extra base on the last of those hits. Before it was over he had allowed three runs, and the Javelinas had an early 3-0 lead. After clawing back with a pair of runs of their own in the second, it was Alex Isola who tied the game for Glendale with his home run to left-center leading off the fourth. Francis Peguero came out of the bullpen for the fifth and delivered a scoreless inning in his only appearance of the week. He allowed a single to the leadoff man but got outs from the next three hitters, including one strikeout to keep the game tied at the time. In the bottom of the seventh, it was Austin Martin who gave the Desert Dogs their first lead with an RBI single, and they would hold on to win and advance to the championship game against the Surprise Saguaros. Martin was 1-for-3 with a run scored, RBI, and walk in this one, playing centerfield while Edouard Julien finished 1-for-4 with three strikeouts. Isola finished 1-for-3 with two runs scored and a walk in addition to the big home run. Saturday, 11/12 - Championship Game | Glendale 6, Surprise 7 (11 innings) The title game against Surprise was a back-and-forth affair throughout, with either team never leading by more than two runs, and the game being tied on five separate occasions. Martin was again the leadoff man playing center field to start, followed by Julien at his usual second base spot. Isola was also at first base, hitting sixth. Julien drew a walk in the first but was thrown out trying to steal second base to end the inning. This would be a familiar theme on the night for him, as he drew a walk in four of his six plate appearances, finishing 0-for-2 with a run scored in the game. In the top of the sixth, his walk to lead off resulted in him scoring a run to give Glendale a 3-2 lead. He also made a play in the extra innings to keep it going: Pitchers Denny Bentley and Ryan Shreve both made appearances in this one, being the first two relievers out of the bullpen after their starter was done. Bentley came on with one out in the third after a home run tied the game at one, and allowed a walk but otherwise got out of the inning. He also got two quick outs in the fourth before another walk brought on Shreve for the final out. Shreve then picked up a pair of strikeouts in the fifth, but an error led to a 2-2 tie after five. Tied at four after nine innings, the game went to extras, where the teams again traded blows, each scoring one run in the tenth, but Martin did his best to win the game for Glendale in both the ninth and eleventh innings. He was at the plate with the score 4-4 in the ninth, when his groundball to short ended with the runner coming home being thrown out. Then in the eleventh with two outs and runners on first and second, Martin delivered a single into right field to give the Desert Dogs a 6-5 lead. It took only two batters with the runner starting on second base for Surprise to dash their hopes in the bottom half, as two consecutive RBI singles won the game for the team that ended the regular season with the best record. Martin finished 1-for-6 with an RBI, and Isola was 0-for-4 with a walk in the championship game. While they weren’t able to take it home, it was an exciting game and season for Twins prospects. Austin Martin and Edouard Julien were fantastic throughout, leading Glendale to the final game and coming as close as they possibly could to winning it for them. Congrats on all the players for a fun season, and I look forward to 2023! Please feel free to ask questions and discuss the prospects playing in the AFL this week! View full article

No. Too nice on Saturday, then a blizzard rolled in on Sunday... It was not conducive to deer movement, and quite rare for me to not be successful on opening weekend ☹️

Thank you! It is appreciated, haha! I don't think Martin was there at the time. I don't have a confirmation or anything of this, but I think he had something more important going on off the field ?. He was back in the lineup yesterday.

Agree. Julien isn't a batting champion (and strikes out a lot more), but he makes up for that in OBP by having a significantly greater ability to draw a walk. Arraez has been about a .060 Isolated-Discipline guy, which is decent, but not great. Julien is over .150 in the minors, which is 99th percentile and you hope it translates into something like .100 in the majors and would still be very very good. I can envision Julien being a .270/.370/.450 guy. That's pretty solid.