Steve Lein

Love Forgotten Star!!! And weird, I suddenly need to visit a client up in the Northern Stacks that day... 😂

If he played a full season at that HR rate he would have led the FSL in home runs. Then there are the facts that the FSL leader hit 20 home runs in 444 plate appearances, and was 3 years older (and had a K-rate of almost 40%). Among players with 100 or more plate appearances, Rodriguez's OPS led the league by a .170 points! The batting average of the entire league was .233... This is a weird way to characterize his 2022 stats.

Are we including their history as the Washington Senators? Because if so, the omission of Walter Johnson is an egregious oversight 😉

The reason Prielipp is this high on the list without having thrown a pitch yet and only 28 innings in college, is because of the potential and ceiling he has (MLB.com has him #4 in the Twins system). It's a lot higher than every other pitcher in the organization, in my opinion, and he ranks higher than this on my own list for that very reason. Doesn't guarantee anything, but that's the fun with these rankings! As has been mentioned, without his injury he was going to be a top 5 pick because of a devastating slider and fastball that's better than being made out here (mid-90s peak velocity from a lefty is a lot less common than it is for righty's). The thing I'll be watching for with Prielipp this season is how his command and control have kept up after the surgery. If he's not walking many people and stays healthy, he's going to be a lot higher up this list and global lists hopefully as soon as midseason.

"Darby's Lot on 5th Avenue: Very similar in location to the above, and offers the added benefit of indoor ramp parking, although the cost is higher. We're going to continue to call it the Darby's Lot for now even though its namesake – the neighboring Darby's Pub and Grill – closed down after the 2022 season." I liked Darby's as a dive bar close to the stadium, but for all the beer-heads who like the area with Modist, Fulton, Inbound, & StormKing within a few blocks, Bricksworth Beer Company has moved into their space. I've had some good stuff from them, and the pizza is excellent!

Just as a point of clarification based on what you bolded. I was talking to the others responding to your comments with that line, not you 😉

As your Twins Daily AFL report writer, this is a very legitimate point. There seem to be several comments aimed at diminishing what Martin accomplished there when it should be quite the opposite, in my opinion. Just look at Royce Lewis. During the 2019 season with Fort Myers (then high-A) and Pensacola (double-A), Lewis hit a combined .236/.290/.371 with a well-below .700 OPS at both stops (.661 overall). Quite frankly, his bat never justified the bump to double-A, but I'm certain it happened because they wanted to get him out of the Florida State League environment and see what he'd do. Then he went and hit .353/.411/.565 (.976 OPS) in the AFL and took home the MVP award. There was some downtime in there (injury, Covid) afterward, but he didn't miss a beat from that when he got back on the field and made an immediate impact upon his major league debut. The parallel to Austin Martin is undeniable, here. Martin hit .241/.368/.317 (.685 OPS) in 2022 with Wichita (double-A), then went to the AFL and was undeniably one of the best players, hitting .374/.454/.482 (.936 OPS). The difference between them is Lewis displayed more power (9 2B's, 3 HR) and drove in runs (20 RBI) from the middle of the lineup, while Martin got on base, created more havoc while there, and scored runs from the top of the lineup. Different types of hitters for sure, but they accomplished basically the same things in their own ways. You were likely already wrong once about the AFL with Lewis, don't be that guy again with Martin. 😂

Remember, Duran will not be able to "unleash the nastiest repertoire [you] have ever seen" as a starting pitcher. Those 99-103's will have to be scaled back to 94-98's, etc... Don't bite the hand that's feeding you.

Hate it. I've been all over the boards stating that Pablo Lopez was the one supposedly available Miami starting pitcher I would NOT trade Luis Arraez for. I care very little that they also got an A-ball "top prospect" back at this point.

I don't really share this concern. The Twins already demonstrated they have rotation depth they can tap this past season to cover any inevitable injuries. Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson; Maeda you mention will also be back. I'm not acquiring Lopez because insurance for this is the idea around what the team gains. In fact, I'm flat-out not targeting him because he might be no better a pitcher. I agree 100% that I don't want Lopez if Arraez is the cost. Have to aim higher with a perennial-batting-champ-contender type hitter, IMO.

I don't have a link or anything to share, but I'm fairly certain while covering the AFL this year, I saw mentions of the Twins/him kind of taking the Buxton approach: Okay we tried, just go out and do your thing now. But I also think the injuries played a big role in his "underperformance" this season. After taking a month off he came back and finished September with an .827 OPS. Then he rode that momentum into a .936 OPS in the AFL. I said this to summarize his performance there in the last of my AFL updates: "I’ve followed this league for a long time, and just like Royce Lewis’ MVP campaign of 2019 (where he had a .975 OPS after a .661 in the regular season), this performance absolutely should restore some prospect luster for Austin Martin. Now the Twins just need to find him a position, but I can see him functioning as a very athletic super-utility type when it comes to defense in the majors, much like how Luis Arraez got his start."

Personally, I highly prefer any of these options over Pablo Lopez, especially if Luis Arraez is the cost of doing business. While I don't think Lopez is a bad pitcher by any means, I don't think he is better, nor has the potential to be better, than Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober, or Kenta Maeda. He's more of the same. Mid-rotation at his best (he was not particularly good for most of the 2022 season). I'd rather have the potential of these other Marlin's guys to get more than that, and the difference between 2 years of control or 4+ also looms large.

I disagree... Lopez is the last of the supposedly available Miami pitchers I would want, especially for Luis Arraez. I started a whole thread on trading for Marlins pitching ->

At a minimum, I think you're devaluing Luis Arraez here. I don't think BTV is gospel, but Arraez is the best player on their site in any trade involving Marlins pitchers Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, or Max Meyer. Kepler/etc... is the tax. Edit: Actually Lopez is, I remember being confused by their valuation of him in comparison to all the others. Because Lopez is the one I'd want the least, and he has by far the least team control left.

This is all the Twins 40-man roster and injury issues during the 2022 season coming home to roost. Enlow, in my opinion, has the potential that you don't jettison for what they added. But, there's not a whole lot for them to jettison at this point, even if there are names there I would have DFA'd instead. I'd be extremely surprised if he isn't claimed.

"5. Target Field upped the fanfare this season. Late in the 2022 season, Target Field began dimming the lights during Jhoan Duran’s entrance song. To my knowledge, the Twins have never done that for a pitcher, especially one who is not a closer. Jorge Lopez also got the dimmed lights treatment with his horror movie-themed walkout. Walkout songs have always been a bit of a show (remember Fernando Rodney's electric entrance?), but they became their own spectacle this season due in part to the Mets’ Edwin Diaz’s viral walkout song "Narco." Pitcher entrances across the league became their show within the show this season, and the Twins kept pace. " While I loved this (re)development, it in fact is not the first time, or the best they have done with, something like this for their closer ?. Apologies, but that title belongs to Jon Rauch and his entrance to Metallica's "Wherever I May Roam" during the inaugural 2010 season. This video doesn't do it justice, but it was far more epic than Duran's also good one.

I'm partial to Jack Stacks for the Kansas City BBQ experience. Burnt ends are *chefs kiss*!

Apparently, Correa's Constitution modifier is like -2.

I also technically think they could afford to sign both (a large chunk of a Rodon salary comes off the pitching staff books after this season). Say $32.5MIL for Correa and $25MIL for Rodon. Make the Carlos' happen!

Correa, 100%. I just think the odds on that are extremely low already. Correa obviously wants to get paid over choosing his preferred destination, if the Twins would even be that. SF will outbid anything the Twins put together.

If the Twins aren't getting Correa, absolutely.

I would highly prefer Luzardo or Cabrera to Lopez, especially in anything where Arraez is something the Twins send.

Losing Arraez in a trade would feel bad because he's a universal fan-favorite (myself included). But that's kind of the issue when evaluating any deal with him in it. We very likely could be overvaluing him. That said, I don't think anything else of much substance needs to be added to a deal with Arraez in it for Pablo Lopez. He's not a better potential pitcher than, in my opinion, four guys already on the staff in Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Heck, Bailey Ober was arguably as good or better (when healthy) in 2022 than Lopez was as well. So, I don't see the necessity here to go after Lopez. I'd be shooting for a potential improvement on what is already here (e.g.: Rodon) or someone just as good (e.g.: Bassitt) which they can get without sending off the best hitter in baseball. A deal with Arraez in it that I would want to see would also include a prospect or two in our top 10 to land that Bluefin from the ocean instead of the walleye from our 10,000 lakes (to borrow Boras' metaphor).

You think Rodon is getting 6yr/$180MIL?! Ludacris. I mean, I know some of the contracts this year have been a bit higher than expected, but he's not getting as much guaranteed as Jacob DeGrom did. If he gets more than $130MIL I'd be surprised.

I think I'd be trying to sign Carlos Rodon now instead of Correa. This type of money isn't what the Twins are gonna invest unless you take Boras' "fishing in the ocean" comment as "they're actually willing to spend that money now" instead of a slight dig akin to "they're out of their league" like I do.