MeleMouth

Prielipp has pitched way too few professional innings to say that his upside is a #3 starter. If he can get more movement on his fastball and make relatively small improvements to his command, with a little more experience he could be very good.

"A recent study examining modern pitching metrics found that only 3.9% of pitchers returned to their full pre-surgery performance level in their first season after surgery. That figure increased to 11.8% by the second season and 28.1% by the third. The researchers defined full performance using five measures: expected fielding independent pitching, FanGraphs wins above replacement, overall velocity, fastball velocity, and spin rate. These findings suggest that even pitchers who make it back on the expected timeline may need additional time to regain their previous effectiveness." Thanks for this data! Gerrit Cole, a great pitcher, was worth 2.1 fWAR this year, after his first TJ. It would be, ahhh, very "hopeful" to expect Lopez, a very good pitcher coming off his second TJ, to be better than that. In fact, it might even be a good idea to limit Lopez's innings by putting him into the bullpen and having him be the closer in 2027.

I hope they are trading Wallner for a pitching prospect off the 40 or else converting him to pitching. If Orze, Acton, Anderson, Ross, and Festa are retained, they could still lose their spots on the 40 before spring or summer training.

I share your lukewarm at best feelings about Dave St. Peter, but how was his job performance relevant to the quality of the baseball team? In some ways, he could be seen as a benefit to the baseball ops, because, at least for a few years, players enjoyed playing at Target Field. Also, this is one of the most forthright statements I've heard from Twins management: “I could make a pretty good case that as poorly as we have played over the first decade in the ballpark we have had more fans in the ballpark most nights than we probably deserve and that speaks to the Target Field experience. You can have a great game-day experience, but you also need to have a competitive baseball team.” Do you disagree with any of it? I'm focused on the poor performance of baseball ops. If you also want to get on Dave St. Peter's business management, I promise not to counter. But I still don't see how he affected baseball ops much.

You can be at "maybe things can work," but I'm done with it. It's time to get some proven top people into the front office.

I think we're having two different conversations. I don't disagree with anything you said in this comment or much of your past ones, but I'm not sure of the point you're making. Is it that converting starters to relievers should be what the Twins do in 2027? Because I'm agreeing that is a good path to look at. I'm also saying that other paths should be considered and that recent history shows that, regardless of path, confidence should be low that current Twins management will do a good job of identifying or retaining the correct relievers.

It has nothing to do with hating Zoll to say that Click's experience and accomplishments are way better. GM of a baseball team, particularly one that has been one of the worst performing teams in the league, shouldn't be an on-the-job learning experience or an opportunity to show what you can do.

They're off the 60. At the end of the season, they didn't have 48 players on the 40 and IL. If you want to count, go ahead.

Zoll doesn't need an advisor, he needs a supervisor.

Since 2006, the top four Twins relievers by saves were converted starters - Nathan, Perkins, Duran, Rogers. Those four, plus Jax, also a converted starter, have the most fWAR. Many other top relievers had been starters, from Duensing to May to Pressly to Duffey to Varland. So converting a starter has been a good path. However, all paths should be considered. Note that Nathan had already been a reliever for a couple of when acquired by the Twins, and that Duran and Rogers were relievers for the entirety of their Twins careers. And none of it matters if the team can't help the former starter figure out to succeed as a reliever.

Yes, they are at 39.

Of the fifty relievers who had the highest fWAR in 2026, ten were former Twins. Of those, two were traded in the fire sale - Duran, Varland. Seven were basically given away for free or nearly free - Megill, Headrick, Hoffman, Wells, Okert, Faucher, and Cano. One was drafted, but not signed - Smith. Multiple error paths were taken to arrive at 2026's bad bullpen. Of these ten relievers, five for sure were converted starters - Duran, Varland, Headrick, Hoffman, and Wells. There's not one good path to becoming a good reliever, but recognizing and valuing who can do it well is a management skill the Twins haven't demonstrated.

After watching an ALCS and World Series in which teams who barely ever signing free agents but year after year outperform the Twins, who routinely dip into the mid-tier and sometimes premium market, I can't believe the topic is "which free agents will the Twins sign this year?" instead of "what do the Twins need to do differently?" You know the old saying about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results? What more do we need to see to realize that the entire strategy does not work?

Turang/Chourio/Contreras/Mitchell/Bauers >> Buxton/Keaschall/Lee/Clemens/Jeffers, and that's just hitting, before you account for defense or the complementary players. Probably the same for Caminero/Aranda/Mesa Jr./Diaz/DeLuca, and other players, such as #2 catcher Fortes, are way better than their Twins counterparts. Other than first-half Buxton, the Twins currently have nobody anywhere near on offense to full-season Chourio, Turang, Caminero, or Bauers.

You mean like in 2015, when Trout had 9.3 fWAR and their second best hitter was Kole Calhoun and their best pitcher was Garrett Richards?

It's likely that the only player development decision that needed to be made about Mike Trout was "let's stay out of his way."

Hire Jim Click to replace Jeremy Zoll. Click has a long record of success with good teams, including 15 years with the Rays where he spent a couple of years as Vice President of Baseball Operations, before he became General Manager of the Astros and won the World Series. He is now Vice President for Baseball Strategy with the Jays. Zoll, in contrast, spent four years as an advance scouting coordinator with the Angels before being assistant director of player development for one year with the Dodgers, after which he worked his way up the ladder with the Twins. In terms of experience, responsibility, and success, Click has it all over Zoll. Sure, it's nice that the Pohlads like having long-term relationships with their executives and I'm willing to believe that Jeremy Zoll is a copacetic person to work with, but it's time to "go big" and get someone big to make a big upgrade to the quality of the organization.

Your numbers are right, but there are three problems with the reasoning. First, they might have given 1388 or 2032 PAs to these guys because they had no other options. They had nobody else to play SS (Gray, Kreidler, Arcia) or C (Caratini, Jackson) or OF for platoons or injuries (Martin, Kreidler) and a large part of the plan to compete was based on expectations for Wallner and Lewis. Second, those core issues - having no alternatives, needing a catcher, injuries and platoons, or disappointments from players expected to contribute to success - are currently flashing orange as warning signs for 2027. Third, there is not one player on the current roster who has demonstrated the ability to sustain high-end talent over the course of the season. All teams cycle through weak or underperforming hitters for some reason or another, which you can't just hand-wave away, but the good ones overcome it by having at least three or four reliable high-end talents regularly in their lineups. The Twins don't have that.

Dave St. Peter is and was pretty irrelevant to the quality of the baseball team. Although I never thought he was great, he always seemed to be more a symptom of organizational problems than an actual problem. In 2019, he also made one of the most honest statements I've seen from the team: “I could make a pretty good case that as poorly as we have played over the first decade in the ballpark we have had more fans in the ballpark most nights than we probably deserve and that speaks to the Target Field experience. You can have a great game-day experience, but you also need to have a competitive baseball team.”

Keep this comment ready for next year, with perhaps just a name change. Every year, they play for this year and end the year no closer to sustainable success.

Isn't everybody intertwined? As others have mentioned, if they trade one starter, then the need for another grows, but that could be Ryan and Ober, Ober and Kremer, or Ryan and Kremer. But even beyond that, their fates depend on other players. A reliever, such as Morris or Rojas, could make become a good starter and make more of that group of starters less necessary. Or Lopez, whom everyone seems to be counting on, could struggle in returning, which could make each of them more necessary. Free agents could change the picture, also. Last year, the Twins supposedly made a big effort to get Framber Valdez. A free agent signing this year could make either or both of Ryan and Ober much less necessary. Trades could also change the picture. If, for example, Ryan is traded to a west coast team for a young starter, Ryan would be gone and Ober could also become less needed. A trade of a non-pitcher for a pitcher could also affect their statuses. A few years ago, trading Arraez for Lopez shook up the roster. A similar trade this winter, such as Keaschall for Logan Webb, would affect both Ryan and Ober and possibly others. Saying Ryan and Ober are intertwined is a narrow, false binary.

It certainly was a total system failure, but then go fix the systemic failures. For example, one of the lay-ups for Falvey was that the Twins of the Ryan era may have been the only team not using video for player development in its minor leagues. They also had an analytics staff of one friendly, but non-technical guy. They could have easily improved these areas without slamming everybody. "Total system failure" implies that people throughout the organization were not doing their jobs well, but without giving them the tools that all of the other teams were using it was like criticizing your tree guy for taking longer than everyone else to cut down a tree when you gave him only a hand-saw while everyone else is using chainsaws and cranes. Ryan had already retired once and came back because of dissatisfaction with Bill Smith (another article could be written about how, during Smith's short tenure, he signed three of the best international players of the 21st Century for the Twins, plus it's hard to know how involved Smith was in the signing of Arraez in 2013, two years after Smith's firing, because a lot of the Latin deals are done in advance and at least the initial relationship was probably developed under Smith). On July 18, 2026, Ryan was then fired, instead of resigning. Jim Pohlad: "The decision to part with Terry was difficult, painful and not obvious." At the time, I didn't focus too much on what was said about Molitor, particularly when he was let go. Falvey was his new boss and it's typical for a new boss to bring in his own team and say generic nice things about the person being let go. In fact, what seemed most odd at the time was not that Falvey let Molitor go, but that the Twins made Falvey wait a year before making changes to the organization. If you're going to say it's a total system failure, then change the failures fast - letting people stay in their jobs with a sword of uncertainty over their heads for a year might let you feel like you're a nice guy, but it's actually not good for them or the organization.

My biggest problem with "total system failure" is it was said by the guy at the top and it diffuses responsibility to everyone. It's the opposite of "the buck stops here."

A bunch of expensive contracts for four pitchers in their mid 30's who between them have made it to four All-Star games in their careers? Can you identify one successful team in the past several years that did this?

1. May 5, 2016 "We’ve been at this for a little while … the owner can’t do a whole lot. But what could Terry do? Or what could Paul do? I just don’t know at this point. It’s just a total system failure, so to speak." -Jim Pohlad Offered without commentary, other than to wonder how anyone could go down from here. 2. July 18, 2026: “When we had the all-staff meeting, you can see how loved Terry is by our organization. If I had to pick one requirement for somebody going forward, it’s someone that’s lovable. The only way you can be loved is if you’re lovable. We want someone that can ultimately be loved. Technically they have to have the skills and strength and so forth, and have to have the willingness to look an organization and make hard decisions, or come up with ways for improvement.” -Jim Pohlad, after firing Terry Ryan Not only is prioritizing being "lovable" let's just say, uh, unique in pro sports and nearly every organization I've ever known outside religious leadership, but it's hard to believe that this criteria resulted in hiring Derek Falvey, who, although not a caustic personality, also had a smartest guy in the room vibe that was certainly not easy to love. 3. September 29, 2025 "I take personal responsibility for [the team's failure to reach the goals it set in 2024 and 2025]. After discussions with ownership, we determined this is the right moment for a change in voice and direction." -Derek Falvey, about firing Rocco Baldelli When someone claims their "personal responsibility" for a bad situation means firing someone else, it brings to mind the immortal words of Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." 4. December 17, 2025 “Half measures are not good, and you’ll probably get to know me over time: I’m not a half-measure guy. “I’m a ‘go big or go home’ guy.” -Tom Pohlad What does this really mean? Get the Bentley instead of the BMW Series 7? Second home in Aspen instead of Breckenridge? "I'm Keith Hernandez?" Whatever it means, it doesn't mean, for example, Dean Kremer over Jose Soriano, which seems like a great example of a half measure, although not as much as the guiding phrase for the year, which almost has half measure written right into it - "competitive rebuild:" "we're half competing and we're half rebuilding." The quote sounds like self-congratulatory pap from a guy who was born to great success and, perhaps family health aside, has never had to overcome real difficulty for one day of his life. The first person in baseball history who comes to mind as possibly saying something this self-absorbed is Roger Dorn. In real life, I've known a lot of really successful people, without ever hearing them talk about themselves in this way. Bonus: “There was probably an argument to tear the whole thing down, get as much value as you can for our players, and really put an emphasis on two years from now or three years from now. On paper, yeah, maybe that makes sense. But you can’t just look at things on paper. We owe the fanbase something. We owe our veteran and star players something. We owe this organization something. And that something is hope.” -Tom Pohlad again This is where we're going to end up anyway, in the best case scenario, because this year was a fudge cup and not much that was done this year will bring success within two or three years any closer than a tear down would have. If they had said building for two or three years was the plan, that would have given people hope - people will maintain hope through tough times if they feel you're being authentic and your story seems coherent. As it is, it's tough to believe the choices were made for the altruistic reason of giving people hope, but were more for the mundane reason of keeping their fannies in seats. From lovable to hope, with little success along the way. Fans don't want love or hope. They want a successful team with players who are offensive only on the field.