mikelink45

Reddit says - The simple answer to your question is 2. This is the average length of a win streak. The chance that a streak has length exactly 1, is 1/2 The chance that a streak has length exactly 2, is 1/4 The chance that a streak has length exactly 3, is 1/8 and so on. So what you are looking for is the result of the infinite sum 1*(1/2)+2*(1/4)+3*(1/8)+... That is the infinite sum of n*2{-n} for n running from 1 to infinity. The result is 2. Showing this would be a good exercise for a first year math major. If you are interested in a proof that this is indeed the sum, I can provide. And I have no idea what that means.

Twinkie town says - It all adds up to this: using (rough) weighted probabilities, the odds of this 18 game losing streak come out to about 1 in 176,860, or .000565%. But what do they know?

I think you got Donaldson about right - let's hope he plays more and gives us better when he does play. In the playoffs they did not use Clippard - which seems to imply that they were not confident in him. Actually the same can be said about Wisler. Both surprised me. They did use Thielbar so maybe he should be higher on the list.

Trades, FAs, how about bringing up your young players. Desperation meant Jeffers coming up and now many of us expect him to keep the starting Catcher spot. We waited how long to bring up Rooker? And he hit and he is right handed. He could have been there all season or at least half. The injury was not predictable, but the need for a right handed bat was. We wait until the playoffs to call up Kiriloff???? At least the last week of the season could have prepared him better. But he did get a hit which many on the team did not. He could have come up earlier and replaced Wade or Cave. And Lewis swung away in St Paul, but we could have had him take Adrianza or Gonzales place and maybe his bat could have worked here. Edwar Colina brought up - thrown in and dropped. Maybe he could have started earlier and developed by the playoffs - we obviously did not trust Clippard or Wisler in the playoffs (where was Alcala?).

I take this as a facetious remark. And as such quite funny. If not, I am sorry if I insult you.

Thanks for the depressing, but enjoyable romp through probability and odds. Not sure I buy your conclusion but at this point who can argue against any number that looks truly bad. Because if we can't win at least we can defy the odds.

Have we considered that MLB liked the short season and might use Covid to test a 100 game season next year? Or 81 so they can pay half salaries. I think they liked this short season and 16 team playoff.

Wow – the combined AL/NL Central division had 7 teams in the 16 team post season mix. That must be a great division so we can take great pride in all our wins, right? Maybe not. Let us look at the division record for the first round. This is for those of you who have decided not to watch any more baseball until spring. The game does go on even if the Twins do not. And if you did see other series you would see something that we missed in the Twins series, besides relief pitching, batting, and fielding. We missed fire - the Kirby Puckett type of jump on my back fire or the Jack Morris I am not coming out of the game fire. Central division seven teams: Chicago Cubs 0 - 2 Chicago White Sox 1 - 2 Minnesota Twins 0 - 2 The bombas scored 2 runs in two games Cincinnati Reds 0 – 2 - They did not score once in 22 innings and had 28 Ks Cleveland Indians 0 – 2 St Louis 1 – 2 Milwaukee 0 – 2 Total 2 - 14 Derrick Falvey - “When you get to the playoffs, every inning matters in a different way. It’s so much more stressful in those moments, because you’re worried inning to inning about what’s going to happen next … You get a little more fixated on the detail of it.” The Eastern Division has five teams Tampa Bay 2 – 0 New York Yankees 2 – 0 Toronto Blue Jays 0 – 2 (and they played Tampa Bay in their own division) Atlanta 2 – 0 Marlins 2 – 0 Yes that was Brandon Kintzler closing out for the Marlins Total 8 - 2 "THEY’D LOST SEVEN STRAIGHT POTENTIAL CLINCHERS! The hardest part of going all those years without winning a series is that the Braves could have won so many of them. They played seven postseason games in that time that could have clinched five different series — and lost all seven. That’s the longest losing streak in potential clinchers by any NL team in history — and the second-longest in baseball history." Jason Stark. Western Division has only 4 teams - must be the weak division (right?) Oakland A’s 2 - 1 Liam Hendriks threw 49 pitches on Wednesday, then saved their clincher Thursday.https://www.mlb.com/video/liam-hendriks-k-s-mazara?t=clinches-and-celebrations San Diego 2 – 1 Los Angeles 2 – 0 Brusdar Graterol gets Ben Gamel to fly out to secure the 3-0 victory https://www.mlb.com/video/brusdar-graterol-earns-the-save?t=clinches-and-celebrations Houston 2 – 0 Total 8 - 2 The Central has had 4 two and out, the East has one (because that team had to play within its own division and the West has zero. "As the sixth inning arrived Thursday in Petco Park, the Padres were four innings away from getting swept by the Cardinals in the wild-card series. Then those same Padres apparently decided that getting swept was not an option. Nope. Not happening. What happened instead was incredible:" Jason Stark. Reminds me of Puckett and Morris. Sometimes you just have to say no - we are not going to lose. Of course Don Mattingly without knowing it said what Rocco needs to hear - our starters are better than anything we have in the pen. You got to trust them. https://www.mlb.com/video/don-mattingly-on-the-win?t=clinches-and-celebrations "Meanwhile in Oakland … the A’s were in the midst of one of the most mind-boggling October funks of all time. Until they outlasted the White Sox on Thursday, they’d somehow lost nine winner-take-all postseason games in a row. "They’d lost three of those games to the Yankees … and two to the Tigers … and one each to the Red Sox, Twins, Royals and Rays. It was the longest streak in baseball history." Jason Stark And despite the fact that the Twins starters are limited to five innings, Clayton Kershaw proved that is not a new league rule - "The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw. Eight dominant innings, giving up only three hits while recording 13 strikeouts, all on breaking pitches." ESPN Wild Card Round Central - zero East - Four West - Four

As I researched past champions the question that I cannot answer is this - is it more painful to miss the off season playoffs or to fail miserable once you get there?

I call it the Los Angeles curse. When I was young I would go to the Armory and auditorium to watch the Lakers. Mikan was gone, but I will never forget Elgin Baylor's rookie year. Then the Lakers were in a city without a lake and I have lost all love of NBA - it was the end of the championships - except for the Lynx - thanks to the Lynx for showing how to win with four championships. The Minneapolis Lakers won five titles so the Twin Cities can have winning teams.The Kicks and the United have zero. Now the Vikings have zero, the Timberwolves have zero, the Wild have zero, but the Twins have two. Unfortunately the last one was 29 years ago. That means a generation or two has grown up with nothing but failure. Unless they were fans of the Saints.

A couple gems from Jason Stark to add to our misery: • Since the last time the Twins won a postseason game: the Cardinals have won 59 of them … the Red Sox have won 51 … the Yankees have won 47 … the Astros have won 43 … the Dodgers have won 43 … and even the Royals have won 22 of them. Wow. • This time around, the Twins got swept in a series by an Astros team that didn’t even have a winning record during the season (29-31). And how many teams have ever done that? That would be none, of course. Read the full report here: https://theathletic.com/2106921/2020/10/01/stark-the-5-weirdest-wildest-things-i-saw-on-day-2-of-the-mlb-playoffs/?source=dailyemail

If I can compare across sports - Bud Grant was a great in season coach - but every year that we were in the Superbowl (4) we looked pathetic. Lacking energy while teams like KC were flying high. Bud wanted an even keel like Rocco, but in the big games we need the emotion of Puckett, Hrbek, Morris, Gladden. I saw no emotions the last half season because we were not playing for the division lead (which the WS handed us) and that lack of emotion and drive carried over into the playoffs. Look at Miami in the NBA - they do not belong in the championship game, but our old friend Jimmy Butler willed them in.

Nicely done. Thank you. But it is really painful to watch all the highlights from other games and see the hitters hitting - HRs yes, but also clutch singles. The energy and excitement watching these games is really catching and such a contrast to our just doing business approach.

Imagine Rocco trying to pull Jack Morris after five innings! Imagine Kirby Puckett striking out at key moments instead of getting the hits that saved the games and series. Think of the bloop hits and hard running, the defense and energy that gave us our last championship and then try to find anything comparable this year.

Andrew - did you draw the short straw? What a painful game to recap. No one in Twins land can be happy. Two pitchers - Maeda and Berrios did well and should have pitched longer and one old guy got two doubles and drove in all the runs. So where are the bombas? Maybe getting a hit is not so old school as the Twins seem to think. The Astros got those "lucky" hits and keep on going. But we stick with the formula - Romo and Rogers at the end of games was a farce. I do not want them to fail, but when they are in seasons like this they should only pitch in blow outs. We dreamt of a Rosario, Kepler, Buxton OF to lead us to the promised land. Has that dream vanished? What next? Is Donaldson going to earn his millions or will this be the next sad story line. And then there is Kiriloff who was put into a terrible position. We could not play him the last week of the season, but we can start him in the most crucial game. So many regrets and such a disappointment.

I can agree with some of your sentiments, but when a BP late innings RP comes in and loads the bases it is not acceptable. Put it right there with the error.

There is nothing to lose by trying anything, but removing Buxton's defense in CF is questionable. And please no more ROMO!!! This has been a terrible year in all aspects for Polanco, but to put Adrianza at short is like having the pitcher hit in the NL. I do not want to go into the off season with a hopeless feeling again. It has happened to often. I am hoping the great odds maker in the sky, dirt, dugout says the Twins have to win someday - why not now?

By the way = look at the Yankees and Bieber - it actually could have been worse.

I know the runs were unearned, but they were still runs and Romo is responsible. My there were a lot of things to not like today. Can we please stop the losing streak tomorrow. As a fan I feel embarrassed even though I can't do a damn thing about it.

I am still waiting to read the over reactions.

0 - 17 - don't tell me these players were not there for the first 16 losses. Romo may have been destroyed by the terrible error that Polanco made (yes he is the goat and not the GOAT) but Romo loaded the damn bases. We had 2 hits in the first 8 innings. That will win a lot of game - way to go BOMBAS Why did we take Maeda out? Why the hell did we have Garver PH for Jeffers and then put in Avila? At least we could have used Kiriloff. By the way - this is the playoffs.

I still believe in BA and RBIs