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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    He's just shy of 27 and has a career wRC+ of 104, and he has the tools that made him a #1 overall pick. A good hope would be he can repeat Alex Gordon's career (#2 overall pick, was a bit above average his age 23 and 24 seasons, then had 2 bad injury-plagued years, then came back with his best career year with a 6 WAR season and 21 WAR over 4 years).
  2. DataNerd
    Looking back at Enlow, I wonder if he wouldn't be nearly as well regarded with today's data/knowledge. Scouts loved his curveball, but he didn't have elite spinrates on it. Not that you absolutely need them to succeed, but he was only facing HS hitters and never got the whiffs that an elite curveball should. Velo also didn't develop nearly as hoped
  3. DataNerd
    Offensively, Mendez is checking every single box there is. BB/K, Exit Velos, traditional stats, chase/whiff. His worst Statcast stat at AAA is Barrel%, which is 76th percentile. You could probably make a strong argument for him being a top 100 guy even with the huge defensive questions. Klein should be moved to a 1 inning role to see how much he get get the fastball up to. Doesn't get high spinrates, and the fastball as it is likely won't be enough to be more than an average pitch.
  4. DataNerd
    Amick's K rate is a huge red flag and he's probably a 1B long-term, but he has consistently been a good hitter. Mendez had an adjustment period (only having 120wRC+) at AA adjusting the approach for more power, and is now dominating AAA. Might want to get him some more time at 1B to get the bat in the lineup.
  5. DataNerd
    1B is the easiest position for a player to learn. Clemens never played 1B until AAA in 2021 and was above-average playing the position in MLB in 2022.
  6. DataNerd
    A couple weeks ago, it would have been hard to think of our bullpen winning games, but here we are. I'm enjoying it while it lasts. Travis Adams has been solid, probably has pitched well enough to keep him with the big league club for the time being. Hopefully not the guy who gets send down for Bradley
  7. DataNerd
    Diaw is 3 years older than Tait, doesn't have near the exit velos that Tait has. IMO he's a top 30 guy, but nowhere near the prospect Tait is.
  8. DataNerd
    Hidalgo's fastball looks legit. 96-97mph, 19"IVB. Disappointed with Langenberg. 91-92mph fastball, down 1mph from 2 years ago at Fort Myers. At 24, probably should move him to a 1 inning role to see what the fastball can get up to, would be surprised if it was playable currently. Kolten Smith up to 39Ks in 23.2IP. 4.18 ERA/1.47 FIP, 93mph 17"IVB, Slider has a whiff rate around 50%
  9. DataNerd
    No really going to fault Shelton for bullpen management when there really aren't any reliable options. Bullpen is 26th in WPA, which is better than its 28th place ERA.
  10. DataNerd
    If Mendez could be a decent defensive LF, he might be a top 100 guy now. The bar at 1B is high, which is his probable home. Looking at the best 1B from 2021-2026, only Yandy Diaz is running an ISO below .200 (and its at .159). Mendez has an ISO of .181 this year between AA and AAA, last year was .140. He can definitely make it work, but if the power doesn't come the ceiling is more like the mediocre 1B that you can sign for 1yr/10M every offseason
  11. DataNerd
    The draft is in July, so I would be shocked if they had that intel. I doubt the Rays internally know what they are doing currently; it would be pretty dumb to make that decision without seeing how Lackey finishes the year, what the money is for different guys. The Rays have taken a HS hitter with either a 1st or a CB-A pick in the 2021 through 2025 drafts, so people are much more willing to mock them that demo even if the eval for Lackey and Emerson are close. But it's just guessing at this point
  12. DataNerd
    IMO Houston already is. Quick will be if he continues to dominate A+, and after that I don't see who is next (besides whoever we take at 3, who will likely start as a top 50). DeBarge/Young both being misses hurts here, you would hope for one of them to be knocking on the top 100 door.
  13. DataNerd
    Mitrovich up to 9 innings with 0ER in A, 4H 3BB 14K. Fastball was 93 with 19"IVB, changeup only had 2 and has been missing bats. Mercedes continuing to hit, and in the SSS at CR has a sub 20 K%. Easy plus power and speed, hopefully he figured something out this offseason and this isn't just a hot stretch.
  14. DataNerd
    Big change on the curveball is not only being slower, but it is a considerably more horizontal pitch than last year. In 25, the slider and the curveball had the same amount of horizontal break, while in 26 the curve has 6 inches more. 2025: 3.6 Horiz/-7.6 Vert 2026: 10.0 Horiz/-11.0 Vert.
  15. DataNerd
    As bad as he's been, Wallner is only tied for 2nd worst position players amongst fWAR. Cedric Mullins (.150/.204/.228) ranks the worst, and Ke'Bryan Hayes (.136/.191/.223) is tied with Wallner (.167/.259/.292) due to solid defense and 25 less PAs.
  16. DataNerd
    His curveball has looked good all of this year. Considerably slower and more horizontal movement than last year
  17. DataNerd
    Struggled in Rk for a season, then thrived. Struggled in A for a season, then thrived. This is going to be a big test for him to see if he can not flounder initially in a new level. Could be a top 10 org guy if he continues to hit in CR, won't be a top 20 guy if he hits .200 there.
  18. DataNerd
    I don't get why this works, but it has. 10 balls in play at >40 LA, 7Ks, 0BBs will work any day.
  19. DataNerd
    I'm guessing they take whichever of the top 3 are available. Lombard has been getting some buzz for both the Twins and Rays; tons of upside and he would save a significant amount to play around with day 1.
  20. DataNerd
    Screaming reliever to me. A bit wild, and the fastball is decent at 93mph/17.5"IVB, but with only being 23 and a starter, could probably be 96mph/19"IVB out of the pen in a year or two. Secondaries seem solid enough to work if the fastball is an above average pitch. I'd probably keep him as a starter the rest of the year at least. Doesn't need to be added to the 40 man for the 26 R5 draft, and maybe the stuff improves enough heading into 27 that he is a starter project.
  21. DataNerd
    I don't think Rojas has shown that he is ready, but neither has the majority of our current bullpen
  22. DataNerd
    Walker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippMarek Houston Underrated, has made consistent hard contact at WF and in pro ball, and with the defense can afford to run a slightly-elevated strikeout rate.Eduardo TaitRiley QuickDasan HillAndrew MorrisKendry RojasGabriel Gonzalez High chase rate dings him, doesn't have the defense/speed/power to play if the hit tool isn't 60 and the chase rate makes that hard.Charlee SotoBrandon WinokurBruin Agbayani 12BB/3K in 50PA for an 18/19 year old in A ball is impressive. Defense and power are questions, but the hit tool looks great.James EllwangerHendry MendezAdrian Bohorquez If he starts throwing more strikes he could easily be top 10 by end of year.Billy AmickRyan GallagherKyle DeBarge
  23. DataNerd
    Fort Myers has a few hitters looking good. Mercedes is finally figuring out A ball. Pena continues to rarely strike out while doing a better job of getting hits. Ramiro Dominguez has a 158wRC+, a .273 ISO with 9BB/10K. And Agbayani finally struck out, between this year and last has 14BB/5K
  24. DataNerd
    35th percentile in chase rate, 38th in zone swing rate. Also has not been great on inside pitches. He still makes a lot of hard contact, and improving plate discipline should help that.
  25. DataNerd
    @Brock BeauchampCould you add Bruin Agbayani?
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