The Great Hambino

What did you expect him to be? A cheap potential closer with 4 years of control?

Now that the dust has settled with all the player acquisitions, the 40-man is still sitting at only 38 players not counting the 60 day IL, even after McCaughan's contract was selected to fill SWR's spot on the 26-man. If we assume one of those spots will be filled shortly by Keaschall, then what's up with the other one? I haven't heard any reports that Pablo is anywhere near returning

I think Pablo's return/nonreturn this season might provide a little insight into their offseason plans If they plan on keeping him as a rotation anchor beyond this year, I could see them shelving him for precautionary purposes. If they plan on moving him in the offseason, then surely they'll want to showcase for other teams that he's fully healthy again. It's moot if he has a legitimate setback in recovery. I haven't found any recent reports, but as of late July I saw he had progressed to some long toss but had not yet begun throwing off a mound. Anyone know of some more recent reports?

I understand the big picture approach, but several aspects of this bother me. One of those is the position-player portion of the returns on these trades. 100% of the position players brought back are either a teenaged C or a LH hitting outfielder. The catching part makes sense given their refusal to spend meaningful draft capital at the position and the absolute dearth of meaningful catching prospects throughout the organization. But how many unproven and/or lower-ceiling LH hitting outfielders can an organization have? Before the trades, they already had former prospects not reaching their former ceilings (Larnach, Wallner) or never really possessing a meaningful ceiling in the first place (Keirsey) at the big league club with multiple years of control. Their top two current prospects (Jenkins, ERod) are LH hitting outfielders. And then they go and add three more (Roden, Outman, Mendez) at the deadline. I believe all but Jenkins either are already on the 40 man or need to be added this winter. That's a lot of LH hitting outfielders They keep telling us that this is all necessary to be in a position to contend in the short-term. The lineup needs some immediate upgrades for short-term contention to even be possible. Unless they plan on expoiting some extreme market inefficiency on LH outfielders this winter, I don't see how anything they've done accomplishes that goal. I realize that the whole point of this rebuild is a more long-term contention window, regardless of the corporate slop Falvey's been peddling. I guess I just wish they'd quit peeing on my leg and telling me it's raining

I totally get that Lopez and Ober were untradeable at the deadline. And that could bleed into this offseason if Pablo can't re-establish his health during the remainder of the season. For those two specifically (and anyone else that develops an injury), health has to be factored heavily in finding the right trade window. You touched on something that I hadn't been thinking of but definitely needs to be considered: how do teams viewing the potential of a lockout in the 26/27 offseason, and what does that do to the trade market up until that point? Will teams in a contention window be more motivated to add for 26 if they think 27 isn't there? On the other hand, will teams shy away from adding long-term assets if they are concerned about the lack of a 27 season or what the landscape looks like with a new CBA? I have no idea how that will play out. Should be very intersting/depressing

All bets are off if a new owner takes control, but it doesn't seem like they weren't interested in moving Ryan at the deadline. Seems like they either held the line on their price more firmly than with the relievers, or just ran out of time (maybe both?) If the idea that their new owner had a hand in their strategy at the deadline (I'm very skeptical of this, but others seem to be treating this as fact), I don't think we'd have seen the smoke around a Ryan trade that we did on deadline day if they envisioned extending him. And they could stagger the sell-off of them over different trading windows, but wouldn't their theoretical value decrease with each window? I know it's more nuanced than that for starting pitchers, but that seems to be the general trend line

They didn't need to trade the entire bullpen either, but here we are. I have a hard time seeing a path to real contention in the Lopez/Ober window (you could say I'm not optimistic that the payroll saved will be reinvested in the lineup improvements needed to make short-term contention a possibility). And if that's true, why would you keep any of them, let alone all of them?

I just as firmly believe that a consistent spot in the batting order has nothing to do with hitting development (I believe that for a regular role in the field as well, but my belief is less firm there). But I am genuinely curious to learn what an actual study of this would say. Please let us know if/when you get around to this project and what you learn from it!

On top of that, there may be teams (Baltimore?) that weren't going to add anything at the deadline that could be more motivated to add starting pitching in the offseason

I mentioned this elsewhere, but I think they have an opportunity to get more information on the young guys if they use some rotation slots to pair them up in a piggyback scenario. Let Ryan, Ober, and SWR do their thing. For the other two slots, pair up, say, Festa with Bradley and Matthews with Abel. Have them each go 4 innings. Maybe a 5th if the situation dictates. It's not like they'd be letting these guys go any more than that in a traditional setup anyway. Now you can gather information and build experience for four young starters instead of two. Could be a creative way to steal some development time. If Pablo returns, or there's injuries, you can reshuffle as necessary. Maybe Adams or Ohl can be a partner if an opening emerges or you think SWR belongs in this group. Maybe Festa kills it for a few turns and you give him a chance to be a big boy starter. You have a lot of ways to play this. Doing this would shorten the bullpen by two members, but it would also save them collectively about 6-8 innings per time through the rotation that it would be required to cover. Given the emptiness of that bullpen cupboard, counting on fewer guys I think is a good thing. I dunno. To me, this would be better than constant bullpen games with a bullpen you don't have

I did honestly miss that part. But I don't really trust much of what Manfred has to say given some assurances on the TV front that haven't yet come to fruition (specifically on the ESPN replacement piece) among other things, and I'm not putting much stock into "no, we really mean it this time!" rumors about the sale timeline. Doesn't mean they can't turn out to be true. But I'll believe a sale is happening when I see it. I also think the Pohlads are behaving exactly how they would if they thought they were going to end up being stuck with the team for a while. Again, doesn't mean a sale can't happen. But there's enough seeds of doubt to make me skeptical

My theory: Louis was the anonymous source to Dan Hayes that no one wants to be here if there selling like this

Three: there is no imminent sale

Exactly. The odds are incredibly flat in the MLB lottery. And even if it were worth it, wouldn't playing young players that maybe aren't quite ready accomplish the same goal?

Okay, then don't bring up Keaschall. That doesn't explain the battalion of AAAA young starters wasting their time in St Paul. Some of them will have to convert to the bullpen at some point. Sitting on them now in place of giving Erasmo Ramirez a roster spot and delaying their development in the name of marginally better odds at the biggest crapshoot in American sports drafts is shortsighted at best. And Jenkins was the no brainest of no brainers, they get no credit for that. And I was disappointed they went with Lewis over Greene and Gore

All so they can draft a kid underslot that they would've gotten later anyway, just so they can show everyone how smart they are. This could be a time spent gathering important information on the young guys on the fringe. Young hitters learning to adjust to major league pitching. Hell, use a few rotation slots to piggyback some young starters. Give them 4 innings each, not like they'd let them throw more than that anyway. Could be a creative way to lessen the load on the bullpen you don't have. The ones that show promise can be developed as starters. The ones that don't can drop their worst pitch and crank up the heater to reinvent themselves as an actual bullpen piece. But no, more important to improve your chances at the #1 pick by 2.3%

Well, that was gross. Time for some Nascarball

A reminder that Outman is in AAA for this

Royce looks like he's back to guessing

His feet hurt? Not being sarcastic or facetious, I'm sure it takes a lot of work just to keep the pain manageable. The idea of less ground to cover I'm sure had some appeal. Plus, it would minimize his biggest weakness (range) and accentuate his biggest strength (arm)

But I didn't say anything about the draft lottery

You're correct That's a stupid question

Gasper playing in stilts wouldn’t be the worst idea

There's no way they actually think that. However, they do think we're dumb enough to believe it. If they actually reinvest the salary savings and retain the starters, then I'll eat as big a plate of crow as they can find. But there's nothing they've done since they were eliminated from the playoffs that tells me that they will