In my opinion, I don't see Buxton getting dealt in any scenario this offseason. His comments post-trade deadline make me think if he wanted out, he'd have been out already. It's possible that dealing Lopez and Ryan changes his mind, but I think Falvey tipped their future plans when he told Correa "this isn't what you signed up for" when getting his approval for a trade. Surely Buxton is aware of that conversation and likely had similar conversations with Falvey as well. Why wouldn't Correa have signed up for a quick return to contention in 2026? Maybe I'm Rorschaching the situation a bit (aren't we all to a degree?) but I just don't see that happening.
While I'm much less sure about it, I also get the feeling that Lopez will be brought back. Post-trade deadline, it seemed to me like they were really leaning into Pablo during broadcasts - making him the face of charity stuff, chronicling his interactions with fans in the ballpark, etc. It felt like they were positioning him to be a big part of their marketing material in 2026. Could they have just been trying to fill time and he happened to be available for that stuff due to injury? Certainly. But it was enough to make me think it's a little more likely than not that he's coming back.
Also, while I'm skeptical of MLB's desire and ability to "not allow" the Twins to run a low payroll given what they've allowed other teams to do, even I think there's a limit to that. $50MM would be $17MM lower than Miami's last-place 2025 opening day payroll. Retaining Pablo seems like the simplest way to keep a barely-acceptable payroll level. And they could always still move him at the deadline if the conditions are right.
Just about everyone beyond Buxton and Pablo as getting moved in the article (I'm on the fence about whether they'd sell low on Lewis just because), on the other hand, I'd be surprised to see on the 2026 opening day roster. Ryan gets them the best possible return in terms of value, Larnach has a bunch of cheaper replacements behind him and could fetch a low-level return (if Farmer on the way in and Gordon on the way out could get something in trade, I don't see why Larnach couldn't as well), and I don't think they’ll be against picking up a couple of Vasquez-type catchers to replace Jeffers
Keeping Buxton and Lopez would put the minimum payroll at closer to $85MM. Still absurdly low, but well within what MLB has allowed other noncompetitive teams to operate at.