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big dog

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Everything posted by big dog

  1. big dog
    Let's go Ervin! <clap, clap, clapclapclap>
  2. big dog
    The first thing is, I would laugh. The second thing, Gomez' helmet would fall off. Third...got me.
  3. big dog
    Some combination of Ervin Santana and Neil Allen have fixed Santana, it appears.
  4. big dog
    Rosario could probably use a little time off to work in the cage a little- right now it seems like he's swinging at anything with two strikes, no matter what. A mental break and extra work might be good for him.
  5. big dog
    Yeah, I'd like to see Buxton play at least 2/3 of the games from now on, with Rosario/Hicks getting most of the time as well. Hunter plays as much as he's playing now, Robinson pinch-runs.
  6. big dog
    To a large degree, the Minnesota State Fair celebrates the state's great agricultural heritage. The food on a stick fetish simply memorializes former times,when men were sitting around a cave, roasting chunks of mammoth, talking about the good old days when mammoths were everywhere and women just carved them up, tanned the skins, picked fruits and vegetables, cooked everything, carried everything, took care of the kids, swept the cave, and did it without any of that darn sass.
  7. big dog
    I know there's a lot of muttering about Bowden as a AAAA pitcher, but I wonder if he'd be a good fit as a reliever. Seems to be a real arm there. Oswaldo was 0-3, but at least he didn't strike out. Let's imagine he hit 3 hard line drives. Average is now at .202.
  8. big dog
    A lot of those players were picked up in trades when they were in the minors. I think we only drafted four or five of the position players and starters. We've been able to acquire some good young players over the years. Florimon's RBI the other night was his first as a Pirate. He's 2 for 19, 2 BBs, 10 K's. The Pirates might be able to turn him into a good starting pitcher, though, given their track record.
  9. big dog
    Jepsen looked totally dominant there.
  10. big dog
    I liked the Santana signing, but now I'm thinking he helped the team the most by getting suspended.
  11. big dog
    And the washing machines have a 6-year waiting list.
  12. big dog
    I certainly hope you are right. I would be very happy to upgrade SS, if he's reasonably healthy.
  13. big dog
    Good interviews, thanks. Good luck to both!
  14. big dog
    Based on that link- it sounds like he would be a problem if the Twins get off to a slow start next spring. Basically he wants to be traded to a 95-win team that needs a rapidly aging, frequently-injured shortstop who is paid far more than his market. I wish him luck.
  15. big dog
    The box scores show ABs and BA, and that's what people discuss. Why not change the box scores to show PAs and OPS? That would change the tone of the conversation. Not using former players from a couple of decades ago in the booth would probably help as well. They came up in a certain system so that's what they are used to having.
  16. big dog
    I couldn't even watch the last NY game. Completely swore off the Twins. That lasted about 40 hours. Now I'm back. Now I'm posting during work again. I'll probably break into a house to steal something I can pawn so I can buy a Sano jersey before long. As I told my wife last week, for about the 500th time, it's just stupid how much of my life outlook depends on that most recent Twins score. "Hi, my name's Jeff, and I'm a twinsoholic." (crowd:) <Hi, Jeff>...
  17. big dog
    I don't see why you are casting this as a simplistic process vs. uncertain outcome question and equating it to plane crashes. There are good methods for predicting plane crashes and bad methods, along with the basic uncertainty of outcome. Of course I understand what a projection is. I also understand what standard errors are. Without knowing standard errors, there is no way to distinguish between the process being wrong, and typical variation within outcomes. They are, by virtue of using statistics, making assumptions about the underlying distribution of the observations, which is always a leap of faith unless you are looking at games of chance or other special cases. Just because they are wrong doesn't make their process bad...but if your prediction goes from 48% to 7%, it might be fair to question the process a little bit, too. Perhaps they were assuming that the Twins would continue their insanely high BA w/ RISP, and that Perkins would save 100% of the rest of his opportunities for the remainder of the year? My main point is that these are interesting to discuss, but we don't have enough data to determine whether they are actually very useful. They might be, but how would we know? We could play the same season over again 50 times, that would be a start. It's just fodder for discussion.
  18. big dog
    Wow, looks like that was a pretty terrible probability projection...
  19. big dog
    Which assumptions are those? I can't make a decision about whether they are reasonable if they don't tell me what they are.
  20. big dog
    I was happy to see him showing a little fire. I was also happy to see him leave the field without taking 15 minutes, kicking dirt, etc. I remember Gene Mauch throwing all the bats from the bat rack on the field one time. Seemed a little over the top, even to a kid in junior high. I hope the umpire gets what he deserves, too, and doesn't get another call as a replacement up here for a while. I was listening to the Orioles radio broadcasters, and well before the Sano call they said that they thought the Orioles should appeal every single possible swing, since he seemed to think they were all crossing the plate no matter what. They thought it was pretty entertaining.
  21. big dog
    These playoff probabilities sound really cool, but I have no idea if they are any good. I think the biggest problem with this is that they claim to be using statistical methods, and they give us broad descriptions of the variables they use, such as "current roster". If you understand statistics at some level, as apparently quite a few of us do, you know that using statistics requires assumptions about error distributions, weighting methods, knowledge of standard errors and correlations, etc. They are not providing any of that information, so it's impossible to evaluate how well they are actually doing the statistics they claim they are using. For example...how does "current roster" affect things? Do they look at possible pitching matchups against near-term opponents? Project that the whole team plays at its season averages for the rest of the way out? Career averages? Lots of assumptions are plausible, but we don't know a- which ones they use; or b- how much weight they place on the topic as a whole; or c- whether they even really include it in any meaningful way. So this is somewhere between rocket science and Magic 8-Ball, but they don't tell us anything that lets us figure out where it might lie in that range.
  22. big dog
    In case people forgot, last year base stealers in the majors went 20/20 against Pinto. I'm pretty sure that problem needs to be fixed.
  23. big dog
    And A-Rod takes a curtain call. They should throw syringes at him. But of course, being New York, they love him. He's the sports equivalent of an investment banker. Paid his fine, now he's back making money again, probably doing the same stuff he did before.
  24. big dog
    OK, who says I was right about hitting A-Rod??? Every last one of you, that's who. We'll just throw it down the middle because we are freaking out instead.
  25. big dog
    I say we hit A-Rod. In the hip. Take our chances with the next guy. OK, time to go back to anger management. I'm a big fan of JR. Looking for a good result here. And yes, hitting A-Rod would be one of several possible good results.
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