Mr. Brooks

Plouffe is an old dog, he is a 100% known commodity at this point in his career. Anything he does over the next 10 days changes nothing regarding his value.

A change in delivery could account for the lost MPH on the fastball.

They don't have a choice. Well, they could retire I guess, but if they want to play baseball they are stuck with the team that owns their rights.

Santiago is throwing his fastball significantly LESS since coming here, not more.

On Tuesday morning, Twins pitching coach Neil Allen made his weekly appearance on a local sports talk radio show. He said a few things that made my ears perk up. I've been busy this week, and just now have had time to go back and double check what I heard, and to do some associated research. First, I'll say that there is no doubt that Neil Allen knows more about pitching than I'll ever know. That disclaimer out of the way though, I can't help but wonder if he is the right man for the job, based on the things he said on Tuesday not really jiving with reality. At the trade deadline, the Twins sent Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer to Los Angeles, in exchange for Hector Santiago. Santiago is a guy who has had some success in this league, and was pitching very well at the time of the trade. Feelings were mixed at the time of the trade, but mostly it was lauded as a good trade for Rob Antony. The feeling was that Santiago could be a potential short term fixture at the back end of the rotation. At the time of the trade, Santiago was having a very good run. Over his final 6 starts with LA, he had given up just 7 earned runs, and struck out 34 batters in 35.1 innings. He also had walked 21 batters, but that seems to be part of his recipe for success. From 2012 through 2015, he posted ERA's of 3.33, 3.56, 3.75, and 3.59, despite walking 236 batters through 527.1 innings. Now, we all know that approach doesn't sit with the way the Twins traditionally want their pitchers to pitch. But, if it's working, why fix it, right? Not so fast, at least that's what I took from this statement from Allen on Tuesday: "But in his defense, he's been working on an awful lot of stuff too since he's been here. Because he's said he got out of whack and out of sync and did some things out in Anaheim. And so he's been coming in here and working on some things too, and believe it or not, he's not happy with the way he's throwing the ball too, and we all know that and we all see that. But there's a lot of mechanical flaws that he's been working on that we do see getting better. His base on balls are down," Allen is correct that his walks are down. In fact they are way down, from 11.1% in LA, to 3.3% here. However, his strike outs are also way down, from 20.8% to 13.0%. Whatever changes the Twins have made to Santiago, have cut down his K's nearly in half, and hitters are absolutely tee'ing off on his pitches. Opponents line drive % is up from 13.5% in LA, to an astonishingly 24.3% here, and opposing batters are hitting .364 off him since the trade. From here, Allen starts to talk more specifically about Santiago's pitches. "His location with his fastball, believe it or not, has been better. It's his off speed that has been kinda beating him up and he's been getting the ball up in the zone when he's trying to shut down big innings and it's cost him." Fangraphs pitch data doesn't support this statement though. In LA, his fastball was a positive 0.1 runs above average per 100 pitches, while since coming here its been worth a NEGATIVE 1.89 runs above average per 100. Or, maybe his fastball location has been better, perhaps it's been too much better, as in right down the middle? His fastball velocity is also down significantly since the trade, from 91.8 to 90.4. That could show that he's playing hurt, or it could support my theory. That being that they saw the walk rate throughout his career and told him he can't do that here, that he needs to start pitching to contact. Perhaps he's always been a bit effectively wild in his career, walking plenty, but stranding them by getting plenty of K's and producing weak contact. Perhaps he's found that the only way he can locate the fastball consistently over the plate, is by taking a little off the velocity, which has led to less strikeouts and guys making better contact with it. Aside from Ervin Santana, who probably needs a pitching coach the least of anyone on the team at this point in his career, has any starting pitcher for the Twins pitched up to his potential this season? Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes, anyone? Now again, I'm far from a pitching coach. So, maybe i'm more on something, than on to something. That is entirely possible. Those who know more than me, feel free to chime in on the things involving more nuance than the numbers alone show, and why I might be wrong (or right).

How much vacation time do you have?

Yes and 2 outs and 2 hits is 3.00 whip, is it not? I don't think it's possible to have a 3.33 whip after 2 outs. The possibilities are 0.00 1.50 3.00 4.50 6.00 Etc. Etc. I could be wrong though, I'm not a professional math doer.

Wouldn't the whip be 3.00?

He may lead the team in slugging and getting on base, but those aren't important. Does he get after it? Does he battle his tail off? Is he lovable? Those are the things this organization values. Of course, that might have something to do with being one of the worst teams in baseball the last 6 years.

Did Sano have a setback with his elbow?

I think Vargas has hit really well since coming back up. And I think there is a decent chance we'll regret it if we ultimately move on from him. But, I guess the FO doesn't have too much choice when the manager completely refuses to play him for some strange reason.

Sure, but if the FO decides that he deserves a September callup, then I'd like him to actually play 2 out of every 3 games. Not sit on the bench and watch Suzuki play. You seem convinced that Molitor would park Suzuki on the bench. I have less faith than you. I doubt Garver plays more than 35 or 40 % of the time if Suzuki is still here.

The minors season ends about a month before the mlb season. I'm not sure how Garver is going to get minor league development time in September.

Kepler and Polanco EVENTUALLY found playing time. There is no guarantee that Garver would play often. How many games has Vargas played over the last 30 days or so?

I disagree on your last point. Molitor has shown an aversion to playing the young guys over mediocre vets. I think it's a valid concern to wonder if Garver will get solid playing time with Suzuki on the roster.

Personally, I would rank Gonsalves ahead of all of them, aside from Berrios who will soon graduate. But, I don't think it's unreasonable to argue for Jay. It all depends on how much weight you place on ceiling, floor, proximity, likelihood of reaching ceiling, etc. Jay has better stuff, if he can develop his change up as an average pitch, and hold up for 200 innings, he has a higher ceiling than Gonsalves. MLB Pipeline, for example, who historically tends to place a little more weight on upside, currently has Jay above Gonsalves. Personally I'd go (after Berrios, starting pitchers): 1 Gonsalves 2 Jay 3 Romero 4 Mejia 5 Thorpe 6 Stewart 7 Jorge But, I wouldn't bat an eye at any combo of the top 3.

Well there have been plenty of instances where this team has had, what turned out to be, an overly optimistic prediction of when an injured player would return. Until Hughes actually begins to throw all of his pitches off of a mound, we have no idea how he will recover.

Or they could move into the 21st century and get cell phones!

I'd guess that he, like I, think that Hughes will not be healthy enough to return.

Yeah, if I'm a young catcher who wants to improve, I'm taking my questions to Joe Mauer, potential HOF catcher, not Kurt Suzuki.

Some high picks, like Buxton, are pretty obvious at the time. Those, I agree are unfair to rip in hindsight. I think a pick like Jay is a bit different though. That was a questionable and risky pick at the time, so I think it's perfectly fair to continue to question the pick if it doesn't work out.

They are at 38, but Perkins and Hughes go back on after the season, so they are effectively (for offseason purposes) at 40. Wheeler is not currently on the 40 man roster.

I'm also pretty sure he's not eligible for Dominican leagues either, unless we sold Georgia to the Dominican Republic and I missed it.

Agree to disagree I guess. He may end up on a major league roster after injuries, but I think he starts on a minor league deal. Unless of course, Antony is retained, then I have no doubt he'll be back here. IMO, his arm and pitch framing and sequencing are poisonous to a pitching staff.

Yep, Suzuki is a major liability behind the plate, and the fact that the Twins can't see that just confirms to me my opinion that we need a pretty full house cleaning. Unless the Twins bring him back, I'd be pretty surprised to see him get offered a major league contract next year.