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NYCTK

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Everything posted by NYCTK

  1. NYCTK
    Wallner is in midseason form.
  2. NYCTK
    I share all your concerns about him as a player, and largely agree about what you're saying about him, but still think you're being a bit harsh on him. It's extremely frustrating that he can't stay healthy, and it's possible if he had, he would be considered a pretty safe bet for the roster. I just really, really think he's going to be someone that struggles to hit at the major league level. Uberpatience as a predetermined approach rather than a real skill.
  3. NYCTK
    I like that they have 3 DRASTICALLY different type of OF prospects. Fingers crossed for all of them. Yikes. I had no clue that was the case. Are we sure of this? I know Fangraphs sometimes is just using best guesses and is sometimes wrong about these sorts of issues. Regardless, I understand why they added him to the 40 man at that time, but wow that really complicates his role.
  4. NYCTK
    Twins haven't signed a starting pitcher to a major league deal since 2022, and haven't given $12+ million to a free agent SP since 2018.
  5. NYCTK
    Paired with his 2024, that puts him at 0 runs over about third a season. Add that to the -5 he's accumulated in CF over about a third a season as well. He appears he might be anywhere from a bad to league average LF. Average would be OK with his bat based on last season, but to he honest, I'm also concerned about his bat. The bright spot for him last year was him proving he could still draw walks at a pretty good rate despite his lack of power threat. That skill alone makes him worthy of a 40 man roster spot and occasional play.
  6. NYCTK
    He showed some improvement, sure, but to me he went from nearly unplayable in the OF to potentially OK. I do remember him just dropping a ball in August after all. But Martin's problem is he needs to either be an exceptional fielder or sustain his hot stretch with the bat from last season in order to earn playing time. His avenue to being a productive player is very narrow due to his skill set.
  7. NYCTK
    I don't think that idea is really that prevalent. Kwan is a very respected corner OF, as is Sal Frelick. The issue lies with your last 3 words. Martin hasn't shown himself to be able to really play good defense. If he could, his bat and baserunning would be extremely tolerable.
  8. NYCTK
    More than you think. People like to play the lottery because it offers daydreams of hope. Unfortunately this current Twins team offers very little hope. But this lottery, as you call it, also has a way higher hit rate to be so derided. In fact, good organizations sustain themselves on these sorts of transactions. Fearing the loss of a good pitcher on a bad team is just not something many here will take part of.
  9. NYCTK
    On this I think everyone is in agreement. No one thinks they should trade Joe Ryan just for the purpose of trading him.
  10. NYCTK
    If you're not buying, and you're not selling, you're standing still. And when you're standing still you get left behind. It's not that we see the Twins as a source of talent for others. Which is especially nonsensical considering the Twins received Joe Ryan by "being a source of talent" for another team.
  11. NYCTK
    Let's be honest, the front office sent that telegraph already. They sent it back in July and then sent out a reminder, but then their boss sent out a follow up saying they were just kidding. Trading away one starting pitcher only changes the roster in 20% of the games, so you still have the exact same reason to watch in 80% of their games. And just like losing Pablo Lopez had a real but small effect on their fangraphs playoff odds, trading Ryan would have a similar effect. From small, to slightly smaller, to slightly smaller yet. Artificially boosted by the fact that they exist in the worst division in baseball. It was obviously the correct decision to trade Ryan in November, which means it's still the right decision today. Other teams are sure to have situations arise, similar to the Twins own with Pablo Lopez, meaning the market is still alive and will continue to exist through spring training.
  12. NYCTK
    The Mets decided to roll with their #2 prospect Carson Benge. I'd hardly call it a bad situation. Their backup plan is less than ideal, with ideas of placing Baty out there if needed, and the other backup plan seeing if other top 100 prospect Ryan Clifford can force his way into the conversation. Matt Wallner wouldn't necessarily be unwelcome on the roster, since he has an option he could be sent down to AAA if things got crowded, but the Mets are dealing with their own Wallner-esque player in Mark Vientos (who sadly has no options remaining).
  13. NYCTK
    The thing is, $200 million is not a ridiculous payroll. In a few years, that will be the median payroll and the Twins, when trying to be competitive should be sitting around that median. And occasionally, when wanting to actually contend for a title, going up to the 10th highest payroll. In an alternate reality, where the Twins made good decisions after the 2023 season, they are sitting with about a $230 million this season. Maybe that means Sonny Gray is here with Pete Alonso, Duran, Jax, and Carlos Correa are still around, and maybe someone like Harrison Bader still around. I still don't know if that is a very good team, but it's probably good enough to win the AL Central. Anyways, my point is, fans need to EXPECT a $200 Million payroll, not fear it. Not in a year like this, when there's no effort to compete, instead resetting the roster and seeing what sticks, but on a typical year in which they hope to win the AL Central.
  14. NYCTK
    Well I for one was down on him last season. I called to trade him last January.
  15. NYCTK
    Well then you're looking at something like 10% of his plate appearances and it becomes a lot more noisy than a near 50/50 split. I'm even granting the possibility of it being bad luck, but you can't lie and say those splits don't concern you one bit.
  16. NYCTK
    That low of a sample, I am basically going to ignore the first part of your reply then. To your point though, I don't know why I didn't include those peripherals in that breakdown, so here are those numbers with K and BB rates included: PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA BB% K% Low Leverage 507 0.267 0.367 0.591 0.958 0.403 11.40% 31.20% Med/High Leverage 465 0.191 0.318 0.369 0.687 0.308 9.90% 33.58% So it's not like he falls apart. Those declines are what we should kind of expect to see for any player. But there's no denying that he's essentially been a low leverage stat padder in his career THUSFAR, and that while it is a cause for a concern, it's not necessarily predictive.
  17. NYCTK
    Ok, but just because someone's on base doesn't mean it's an important at-bat. In approximately equal splits in low versus medium/high leverage plate appearances he hit .975 OPS in the former and about .580 in the latter.
  18. NYCTK
    I do worry that he's nothing but a stat padder in low leverage situations. He's sure to hit a bomb off a position player, but he's not really shown up when it matters. His splits are bad, and somewhat concerning: PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Low Leverage 507 0.267 0.367 0.591 0.958 0.403 Med/High Leverage 465 0.191 0.318 0.369 0.687 0.308 This still could be complete noise though.
  19. NYCTK
    For all this talk about how "elite" his arm strength is, which while true, according to Savant he's saved the team a whopping 0 runs above average with his arm over his 4 partial seasons. Even if his arm strength is an 80 on the scale, his arm tool is only a 50 because of his inability to actually utilize it, thanks to his terrible defense and his loading and accuracy. Add that to the -12 runs he cost in the OF with his routes and jumps. Point being, I really, really want people to stop talking about Matt Wallner's great arm as if it's actually an asset. He stinks in the OF, period. The question is, is he so bad that he needs to be moved to DH on a near full time basis. He, under no circumstance has "real defensive upside" as the author says.
  20. NYCTK
    No, we're in agreement. I wanted to trade him at the 2023 trade deadline. And I'm not making fun of those players. Scherzer pitched 45 good innings and helped the Rangers win the World Series, and Josh Bell had a 114 OPS+, helping the Marlins make the playoffs.
  21. NYCTK
    Yep. He could have brought back quite the impact arm or 1B. Max Scherzer or...Josh Bell! That trade deadline was the beginning of the collapse of this Twins era. Very sad.
  22. NYCTK
    So, I don't know much about pitching injuries so I want to ask the question: Let's say the Twins did a proper tear down and traded away Pablo this winter. Would this have potentially been a red flag in a physical?
  23. NYCTK
    Why are people giving the owner a nickname? He's not the third T, nor the third managing owner in the Pohlad era, so I don't get it. Only people I like get nicknames. It's a practice of endearment to me.
  24. NYCTK
    Depth is so important in the bullpen and this really helps a lot there. This move is both really good and not a surprise. This leftover, optionless, bullpen arm musical chairs is played every year and is why a lot of teams refuse to invest too heavily into the bullpen. Now, this still doesn't make this bullpen formidable, but it does a lot to bring it towards respectable.
  25. NYCTK
    With the commencement of Spring Training, I now commit myself to conveying only optimism about this team until at least the 54th game. Let's Go Twins! I look forward most to seeing the development of the non-rookie young players that are new to the system: Abel, Bradley, and Roden.
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