Cody Christie

The NFL season is over, and pitchers and catchers report next week, so it’s time to get excited about what the 2020 season could mean for the Minnesota Twins. Much of Minnesota’s roster is set for next year, but there are still some decisions to make including the addition of a 26th roster spot. Here’s a look at what the Twins’ 26-man Opening Day roster would look like if the season started today.Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Alex Avila Garver and Avila are locks for the Opening Day roster, but there are a few questions surrounding the Twins and their 2020 catchers. How much will the Twins rely on Garver behind the plate? Last season, he was very successful when rotating with Jason Castro. Minnesota could try and follow a similar routine with Avila and Garver this season. Another decision facing the Twins is whether to keep Willians Astudillo on the 26-man roster. There are benefits to carrying a third catcher, but I think the Twins have better options for their bench and Astudillo has a minor-league option remaining. Infielders (5): Ehire Adrianza, Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano Much like the catchers, the infielders are almost set in stone for Opening Day. Arraez, Donaldson, Polanco and Sano will all be in the line-up and Adrianza will come off the bench. Adrianza offers a solid defensive upgrade over the other middle infielders and it will be interesting to see if he is used as a defensive replacement more regularly. Nick Gordon and Travis Blankenhorn are on the 40-man roster but neither player should figure into the team’s roster unless there were multiple injuries this spring. Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario If all are healthy, the trio of Buxton, Kepler and Rosario should be getting most of the regular reps in the outfield. Cave has a minor-league option remaining, but he has proven himself as a big-league hitter and he and Astudillo will likely be fighting for the final roster spot. Gonzalez will be on the team in the Opening Day roster in some capacity and he is in a similar spot to last season. He entered spring without a starting role but ended up being a starter after Sano’s injury. Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz There isn’t much to debate here. Cruz will be looking to build off a tremendous 2019 campaign where he was named the team’s MVP. Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Jhoulys Chacin With Michael Pineda and Rich Hill out to start the year, there had been some questions swirling around the back end of the starting rotation. Tuesday night's trade certainly changed the rotation's outlook. Maeda is an immediate upgrade and it gives some of the other younger pitchers an opportunity to prove themselves at Triple-A. Minnesota signed Jhoulys Chacin to a minor league deal last week, but he can easily be added to the 40-man roster after Hill is added to the 60-day injured list. I think the Twins are still high on Thorpe’s potential. He has put together some strong strikeout numbers throughout his professional career and it has taken some time for him to adjust to different levels. If Chacin can't find success, Thorpe could be the next man up. Bullpen (8): Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo, Zack Littell, Tyler Clippard, Cody Stashak, Matt Wisler One wildcard in the bullpen picture is Fernando Romero, who seemed like a lock for the bullpen last season. Jorge Alcala will both be in camp with the team, but his remaining minor-league options make it unlikely for him to come north with the club. Stashak looked good at the end of last season and he could take the place that had been earmarked for Graterol before he was traded. Wisler will need to look good enough throughout the spring to get a bullpen spot, otherwise the Twins could turn to one of the other names mentioned above. Who do you think makes the team’s Opening Day roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Last summer, the Twins organization elected Joe Nathan to the Twins Hall of Fame, a well-deserved honor for the former All-Star closer. Nathan was tremendous during his time in a Twins uniform and his eyes should be set on an even more prestigious Hall of Fame, the one located in Cooperstown, NY. Hall of Fame players are not one-size fits all and, for many, the path to the Hall includes excellence over a long period of time. Joe Nathan’s play over the last decade is certainly going to warrant some consideration for the Hall, but there could be some obstacles awaiting him on his path to enshrinement. Much like current Twin Nelson Cruz, Nathan didn’t become a big league regular until late into his 20s. Minnesota traded for him in one of the best trades in franchise history and he immediately became one of the best closers in the game. Unfortunately for Nathan, relief pitchers are underrepresented in the Cooperstown’s hallowed halls. The current HOF relievers are Dennis Eckersley, Mariano Rivera, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rich Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Trevor Hoffman, and Rollie Fingers. Currently, Billy Wagner has been slowly gaining traction on the HOF ballot. In his fifth year of eligibility, his named was penciled in on 31.7% of the writer’s ballots. This was up 25% from the 2019 ballot where he finished with 16.7% of the vote. Back in 2017, his first year on the ballot, he was only on 10.5% of the ballots. FanGraphs Jay Jaffe named Wagner and Nathan as the two best relief pitchers outside the Hall. Both Wagner and Nathan are within 1.0 WAR of each other, but Nathan has 1.5 more WPA. While these players put up strong numbers in their era, however, each falls sort of the HOF average for WAR (39.1). Rivera and Eckersley shift the WAR average significantly as they averaged over 59 WAR between the two of them alone. One way to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness is Jaffe’s scoring system known as JAWS. According to Baseball Reference, a player’s JAWS is their career WAR averaged with their 7-year peak WAR. To examine Nathan, one must compare him to the other relievers already elected to the Hall. JAWS has Nathan ranked closely to other Hall of Fame relievers. Smith and Sutter rank just above him and Hoffman is two spots behind him with Wagner being between Nathan and Hoffman. Overall, Jaffe places Wagner and Nathan in his top-7 overall relief pitchers through his hybrid average of WAR, WPA, and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI). If Wagner can garner enough support to be elected, Nathan should have the opportunity as well. Nathan has other statistics that could help his Cooperstown case. Even with his late debut, he was able to pitch into his early 40’s. Along the way, he was elected to six All-Star teams, finished in the top-5 of Cy Young voting twice, struck out more than a batter per inning and he finished in the top-5 in saves five times. Overall, he’s eighth in career saves and he had five seasons with a 1.88 ERA or lower. Much like Wagner, it is going to be a tough road to Cooperstown. Wagner continues to gain support and Nathan is close to Wagner in many categories. Will Nathan be able to stay on the ballot and eventually be on the stage in Cooperstown? We will have to wait until 2022 to find out. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Twins pitchers and catchers report in roughly two weeks, but there are still things left on the Twins off-season checklist. None of these questions have a hard-set deadline so all three could carry over into the spring or early into the season. My guess is fans would feel a lot better about the club’s future if all three of the items below were taken care of in the coming weeks.Will the club extend team MVP Nelson Cruz? Cruz will turn 40 at the beginning of July, but he certainly hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down in recent years. Last season, the team named him the Twins MVP and he earned his third career Silver Slugger after he posted a career high 1.031 OPS with 41 home runs. Over the last six seasons, he has averaged more than 40 home runs with a 148 OPS+. Thad Levine told fans at TwinsFest that the club has already contacted Cruz’s agent about an extension. “We are having ongoing conversations with his agent to discuss mutual interest in the future,” Levine said. “The reality is he’s one of those unique players right now who seems to be giving Father Time the business. Most of us aren’t blessed with that ability.” Is the Twins starting rotation set? Pitching, pitching, and more pitching was supposed to be the Twins off-season story and the narrative quickly shifted after signing a former MVP third baseman. Minnesota has added Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Homer Bailey and Rich Hill so far, but Hill and Pineda won’t be in the rotation to start the season. There are also questions about what type of performance the Twins could get from Bailey, who ended the year strong, and Odorizzi, who had some second half struggles. Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe will all enter spring with a chance to make the rotation. However, the Twins would likely be more comfortable if only one of those pitchers must be relied on to start the season in the big leagues. Luckily, the early season schedule and weather-related cancellations allow for a fifth starter to be only occasionally needed before Pineda can come back from suspension. Names swirling on the trade market this off-season have included Boston’s David Price, Colorado’s Jon Gray and Arizona’s Robbie Ray. Can a deal still be struck with one of these clubs or will Minnesota wait until closer to the trade deadline to work out a trade? Will Jose Berrios agree to a long-term deal? Over the last two off-seasons, the Twins have been able to lock-up multiple pieces of their young core to long-term deals. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco signed at the beginning of last spring training and now Miguel Sano has signed this off-season. Jose Berrios is the most likely extension candidate left on the roster, but there are pros and cons to any long-term deal. Berrios was approached last off-season about an extension, but he decided to have confidence in himself and that looks to be the right decision. Free agent pitching contracts continue to rise and Berrios isn’t going to get paid handsomely. As a first-year arbitration eligible player, he is under team control for the next three seasons. This still doesn’t mean the club won’t want to approach their ace about a contract to keep him in a Twins uniform beyond the 2022 season. Will any of these questions be answered before spring training? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins won over 100 games last season for only the second time in franchise history. Free agent additions like Nelson Cruz, Jake Odorizzi and Marwin Gonzalez helped to bolster the team, but the majority of the players were developed through the Twins' minor league system. The tenure of former general managers Terry Ryan and Bill Smith isn’t always looked on with fondness, but their impact on the current roster is still being felt.Terry Ryan Era(s) 1995-2007 and 2012-2016 Ryan oversaw one of the best drafts in team history, albeit having the second overall pick certainly helps to bolster a draft class. Byron Buxton was considered by many outlets to be the top prospect in the draft. So, when the Astros took Carlos Correa with the first pick, Buxton became the logical pick at number two. It didn’t take long for the Twins to find another regular player in the 2012 draft. Jose Berrios was selected with the 32nd overall pick as compensation for Michael Cuddyer leaving in free agency. Later in the draft, the Twins selected bullpen regulars Tyler Duffey (fifth round) and Taylor Rogers (11th round). According to Baseball Reference, these four players have accumulated 24.1 WAR since being drafted. Minnesota didn’t fare nearly as well in the 2013 MLB Draft with their top five picks accumulating a negative WAR total so far in their big-league careers. However, Mitch Garver was taken by the Twins in the ninth round and he has accumulated more total WAR than the other players taken that year in the same round. Ryan’s biggest international signing during his second stint as GM might turn out to be Luis Arraez. He signed out of Venezuela in 2013 and he looked like the second coming of Tony Gwynn in his rookie campaign. Based on his comments at the Twins Winter Caravan, he has the goal of winning the AL batting title and it might be within his reach. Bill Smith Era 2008-2011 Even though Terry Ryan’s retirement meant Bill Smith was given the GM role, Ryan was still part of the organization as a senior advisor. This likely means he had a say in some of the decisions being made below. Smith was also in a tough spot as he was hired and had to immediately trade two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana. Smith oversaw one of the best international signing periods in team history and identified a strong outfield bat in the fourth round. Back in 2009, the Twins signed three teenagers for $4.65 million in total signing bonuses and those three players are certainly key to the current roster. Miguel Sanó, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler were all signed in the same year and now they have all inked extensions to stay part of Minnesota’s core. “That’s an all-time great group,” Baseball America’s Ben Badler told the Athletic. “To get one player like a Polanco, or a Kepler or a Sanó from a signing class would be a good year. To get three of those guys in one class is like an all-time type of signing class.” Another important player from the Smith Era was Eddie Rosario in the fourth round. He and James Paxton are the only players from that round to accumulate more than 10 WAR in their careers. 2020 could be Rosario’s last year in a Twins uniform, but he has certainly provided value to the club through his Twins tenure. Minnesota’s new front office has certainly made some positive changes throughout the organization, but the success of the current roster couldn’t have happened without the foundation laid by previous front office executives. The Twins underperformed for most of a decade, but a winning culture was being cultivated in the minor leagues and Ryan and Smith were part of that process. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Josh Donaldson’s signing with the Twins sent shockwaves through much of the fan base for a variety of reasons. Minnesota had never signed a free agent to a larger contract, and many assumed he would wind up back in Atlanta since he had voiced that as his preference. His signing is a franchise-altering moment and there will be ramifications for years into the future. One impact will be felt by other players in the farm system as their path to the big-leagues could now be altered.Here are three players whose path to the major leagues could be altered because of Donaldson’s signing. Brent Rooker, OF/1B Rooker was Minnesota’s supplemental first-round pick back in 2017 and his college experience helped to push him all the way to Triple-A last season. He was limited to 67 games due to a right groin contusion. Prior to the injury, he was having one of his best professional seasons as he was hitting .281/.398/.535 while being nearly three years younger than the competition at Triple-A. Rooker is already on the 40-man roster so there is certainly a chance he makes it to Target Field this season. With the addition of a 26th roster spot for 2020, he would be an intriguing option as a bench bat later in the season. Donaldson Impact: With the addition of Donaldson, there would likely need to be multiple injuries for him to get an extended look at the big-league level. Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B Like Rooker, Kirilloff missed time during the 2019 campaign due to injury. A wrist injury kept him out for the first month of 2019 and it continued to bother him throughout parts of the season. He told MiLB.com, “It takes a little bit more time to warm it up and get it going than usual…Just being able to mentally tell yourself and your body that your wrist is completely fine again is another step to take as well.” Kirilloff is widely considered one of the organization’s top prospects, but he will likely spend 2019 between Double- and Triple-A. He’s still a prospect to watch during the up-coming season. Donaldson Impact: Kirilloff could have been a candidate to take over at first base, but now he can prove he’s healthy and swing his way onto the 40-man roster. Trevor Larnach, OF Minnesota made Larnach the 20th selection in the 2018 MLB Draft and he spent little time making his mark on the organization. During his first full professional season, he hit .309/.384/.458 with 44 extra-base hits on his way to being named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year. The Florida State League is usually considered a tough hitting environment and Larnach posted an .842 OPS across 84 games. Larnach, along with the names above, are a trio of prospects more known for their bats than their defense. If Rooker and Kirilloff are healthy, they could get a big-league opportunity before Larnach has a chance. Donaldson Impact: If Minnesota is higher on Rooker and Kirilloff than Larnach, he could be the key prospect included in a deal to acquire a starting pitcher before the season’s start or at the trade deadline. If you want to learn more about the players discussed above, make sure to pick up a copy of the 2020 Twins Prospect Handbook. There are profiles and scouting reports on nearly 170 players in the Twins farm system along with articles and prospect rankings. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Last week, the Twins agreed to terms with Eddie Rosario on a one year $7.75 million contract in his second year of being arbitration eligible. He was one of five Twins players to accumulate more than 30 home runs last season, but it might be getting to the point where his on-field value doesn’t match the money the Twins are paying him.According to FanGraphs, Eddie Rosario has provided the Twins $83.7 million worth of value over the course of his five big league seasons. His best season was 2018 when he accumulated a 3.5 WAR and FanGraphs valued him at $27.6 million. He was worth $20.6 million in 2017 and $19.6 million in 2015, his rookie season. These are some great seasons, especially since the Twins have only paid him $5.89 million throughout his career. Last season was Rosario’s least valuable season besides the 2016 campaign where he was limited to 92 games. He set career highs in home runs and RBI while having less than 90 strikeouts for the first time. Even with those positives, his defensive decline is drastically impacting his value to the Twins. SABR’s Defensive Index ranked Rosario as the third worst AL left fielder last season with a -5.7 SDI. Only Seattle’s Domingo Santana and Boston’s Andrew Benintendi ranked lower than Rosario. Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average, a newly released statistic, ranks Rosario even worse. Among the 92 qualified outfielders his -17 OAA is the lowest total by four outs. Even with his positive offensive numbers, FanGraphs puts Rosario’s value at $9.3 million last season. He will cost the Twins nearly $8 million in 2020 and his salary would increase for 2021, his age-29 season. It could be getting to the point where Rosario’s on-field value doesn’t match the salary he is being paid. Minnesota’s front office is smart enough to look at his overall value and it could be in the best interest of the team to cut ties with Rosario. Back in 2016, the Twins went through a similar situation with Trevor Plouffe. He was projected to earn $8.2 million in his final year of arbitration. Instead Minnesota cut ties with him, because the roster had other first base/DH options and Miguel Sano was ready to take over at third base. Plouffe had been limited to 84 games in 2016 and he would only play 107 more games at the big-league level. To take the place of Rosario, the Twins could have other prospects waiting to take over a corner outfield spot. Players like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach could both be ready for a full-time role on the 2021 Twins. Each would be making the minimum salary and they could be able to provide more value without being as much of a defensive liability. Rosario has provided some dramatic moments throughout his Twins tenure, but his days in a Twins uniform could be numbered. Do you think the Twins keep Rosario beyond the 2020 season? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Not every top prospect is going to make it at the big-league level and there will be plenty of unranked prospects that become significant contributors. Minnesota’s farm system has been strong in recent years and this has helped to form the team’s current core. However, there are players on the roster that took time to develop. Here are three players that took their time to become fixtures with the Twins.Mitch Garver Twins fans are well aware of what Mitch Garver was able to accomplish last season on the way to his first Silver Slugger Award. Among American League catchers, Garver ranks first in WAR, first in slugging percentage, first in on-base percentage, and second in home runs. He did all of this in his age-28 season after posting a .739 OPS with seven home runs over his first two big-league seasons. Garver was never considered a top-10 prospect in the Twins organization. Seth and I both had him in the teens entering the 2017 and 2018 seasons respectively. Throughout his minor league career, he hit .270/.363/.428 (.791), which are very respectable numbers for a catcher. His power numbers last season were completely off the charts and it will be interesting to see if Garver can continue to be one of the best hitting catchers in the American League. Highest Twins Prospect Ranking (Year) Cody: 13 (2017) Seth: 16 (2018) Trevor May When the Twins traded for Trevor May, he was supposed to become a starting pitcher. Tommy John surgery cost him the 2017 season and he has been pitching out of the bullpen over the last two seasons. During that time, he has posted a 3.01 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and 11.5 SO/9. Last season was his first time making over 60 appearances and he posted a career best 2.94 ERA. Prior to the 2012 season, May was considered a top-100 prospect by all three national prospect ranking entities (Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus). He was coming off a season where he was almost two years younger than the competition in the FSL while posting a 12.4 SO/9 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. As part of the Twins Prospect Handbook, Seth and I both had him in our top-10 Twins prospects prior the 2013 campaign. Highest Twins Prospect Ranking Cody: 6 (2013) Seth: 9 (2013) Taylor Rogers Minnesota’s bullpen had some rocky moments last season, but the one consistent was Taylor Rogers and his dominance in late inning situations. He ranked second among AL relievers in WAR and Win Probability Added. Rogers wasn’t being relied on as a traditional closer either. In 17 different appearances, Rocco Baldelli asked Rogers to collect more than three outs. Minnesota’s bullpen looks stronger for 2020, so it will be interesting to see if he is used in a more traditional closer role. Throughout his minor league career, Rogers was always considered a starting pitcher. In fact, 87 of his 99 minor league appearances came as a starting pitcher. Because he was usually projected as a starter, Seth and I never had Rogers ranked inside out top-10 Twins prospects. Now this past season, he might have been the most valuable reliever in the American League. Highest Twins Prospect Ranking Cody: 17 (2016) Seth: 11 (2015) If you want to learn more about potential late blooming prospects, make sure to pick up a copy of the 2020 Twins Prospect Handbook. There are profiles and scouting reports on nearly 170 players in the Twins farm system along with articles and prospect rankings. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Last week, the Twins agreed to terms with all their arbitration eligible players with Jose Berrios being the lone exception. The Twins were able to reach an extension with Miguel Sano to potentially buy out two of his free agent seasons and now Berrios is a prime candidate to be offered a long-term extension. With any long-term deal, there can be plenty of aspects to consider.The Good Jose Berrios is a two-time All-Star and he has become Minnesota’s best starting pitcher. He’s ranked in the American League top-20 for ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents batting average. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks most closely to Mike Minor, Anthony DeSclafani, Joe Musgrove and Joey Lucchesi. These aren’t exactly perennial Cy Young candidates, but it is a combination of older and younger pitchers that are similar to Berrios. Last week, Matthew wrote about pitchers in their age-26 season, which he identified as the peak age for starting pitchers. Top pitchers like Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg and Dallas Keuchel all hit peak numbers in multiple categories during their age-26 season. Minnesota needs Berrios to take steps next season to be even better than he has been over the last two seasons. The Bad Berrios and his second half slumps have been well documented over the last few seasons. His ERA is over a full run higher in the second half and his second half WHIP is 33 points higher. Opponents hit .229/.289/.391 (.679) against him in the season’s first half, while those numbers jump to .264/.343/.413 (.756) in the second half. There might be a small amount of bad luck involved in his numbers because his BAbip is 52 points higher in the second half. Since the Twins drafted Berrios, questions about his size and physical make-up. Berrios is roughly 6-feet tall and just over 200 pounds, so he isn’t exactly a daunting figure on the mound. Some have wondered if his body type is one of the reasons he has pitched more poorly in the second half. Most of his social media shows us that he gets into prime condition in the off-season, but even doing that doesn’t guarantee he will find second-half success. The Ugly Over the last two off-seasons, the Twins’ front office has been able to sign extensions with young core players like Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano. Reports last off-season mentioned the Twins also approached Berrios about a possible extension, but he they likely will have to “pay up” to buy out any free agent seasons from Berrios. Free agent pitchers have seen lucrative contracts this off-season and Berrios could be due a large contract if he hits the open market. As mentioned earlier, the Twins and Berrios couldn’t reach an agreement on his 2020 salary as part of the arbitration process. Berrios submitted at $4.4 million and the Twins filed at $4.025 million, which puts the difference at $375,000. Will the Twins and Berrios let this difference go all the way to an arbitration hearing? These can be ugly hearings with the team having to bring up flaws in a player that is a building block for the team. Do you think the Twins will be able to sign Berrios to a long-term deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Throughout recent months, fans have been able to track this year’s MLB Hall of Fame election results thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his HOF Tracker team. Through his work, it’s easy to follow the results as they are released in real time. There are still four more years before Joe Mauer will be eligible for the ballot and there is plenty of time to debate his case, but is there another Hall of Fame player on the current Twins roster?Hall of Fame players are not one-size fits all and, for many, the path to the Hall includes excellence over a long period of time. Nelson Cruz’s play over the last decade is certainly going to warrant some consideration for the Hall, but there could be some obstacle awaiting him on his path to enshrinement. Obstacles Facing Cruz Designated hitters have struggled to be elected by the baseball writers and Cruz has been a DH for a large chunk of his career. Entering the 2020 campaign, he has played 970 games in the outfield and he has been a DH for 696 games. Minnesota will likely use him as a DH for over 100 games this season and that could put those numbers even closer together. Cruz was also a late bloomer in terms of MLB players and that will hurt his career numbers because of his lack of longevity. At the onset of his big-league career, it seemed almost impossible for him to hit over 400 home runs, but he crossed that mark last season. He didn’t debut until age 24, his first home run came at age-26, and he wouldn’t be a full-time player until age 28. The other elephant in the room is the fact Cruz was part of the largest mass suspension in baseball history. Back in 2013, he was part of the Biogenesis drug case and he was forced to miss 50 games. His excuse for taking a banned substance was an “error in judgment.” He had lost 40 pounds due to a stomach infection and he was trying to get ready for the 2012 season. JAWS and Peak Performance One way to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness is the scoring system known as JAWS. According to Baseball Reference, a player’s JAWS is their career WAR averaged with their 7-year peak WAR. To examine Cruz, one must compare him to other players at his primary position, right field. There are 26 Hall of Fame players at this position, the most of any non-pitching position, and their averages are a career WAR of 71.5, a seven-year peak WAR of 42.1, and a JAWS of 56.8. Cruz falls well below all those numbers because of his late debut. He has a career WAR of 37.9, a seven-year peak WAR of 30.0, and a JAWS score of 33.9. JAWS ranks him closely to Juan Gonzalez, Kirk Gibson, David Justice and Roger Maris. During the 2010’s, it’s hard to argue with the numbers compiled by Cruz. MLB.com named him as the DH on the All-Decade Team. Among players over 30, he has the 10th most home runs all-time and the list includes some of the game’s most prolific home runs hitters like Bonds, Ruth, Aaron and Mays. Cruz was the best player at his position for most of a decade, but his late arrival as a full-time player likely means his Hall of Fame chances are slim. He might continue his late-career renaissance and play well into his 40s and that would still likely leave him on the outside of the Hall. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

During every offseason organizations have time to re-evaluate the talent in their own organization. Minnesota’s championship window could be open and minor league talent can help to keep that window open. There’s also an opportunity to bolster the current roster by trading away prospects for MLB-ready talent.Here are four prospects to watch in 2021 for different reasons. One player could be a contributor in 2020, one was a rising prospect this season, one prospect saw his stock decline, and another has a chance to be jump on the radar next year. 2020 Contributor: Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B Late in spring training, he suffered what was called a minor wrist injury and it would keep him out of action until May and then he missed more time in June. He was limited to 94 games and saw his OPS drop to .756 as he had for 29 extra-base hits. As the season progressed, he showed signs of the player he was in 2018. During the month of August, he hit .311/.351/.500 (.851) with five home runs and five doubles. The five home runs were more than double the total he had in any other month of the season. Minnesota’s starting first baseman from last season, C.J. Cron, was non-tendered earlier this off-season and this could be an opportunity for Kirilloff to take over at first base. The Twins drafted Kirilloff as a corner outfielder, but he played over 300 innings at first base last season. He was charged with five errors in 266 chances for a .981 fielding percentage. While Minnesota might give Kirilloff a long look in spring training, it seems more likely for the club to use another internal option at first base like Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver and/or Marwin Gonzalez. Riser: Jhoan Duran, RHP Duran pitched most of 2019 at High-A and he was able to make seven Double-A starts where he was, on average, over three years younger than the competition. The 2020 season will be important for Duran to prove he can be a long-term starter as some are starting to look to him as a relief pitching option. His delivery can be inconsistent, but he threw strikes on 64.7% of his pitches. Even with these concerns, he struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings for the second straight season. He was added to the Twins 40-man roster this off-season so there is a chance he could make his debut in 2020. Faller: Wander Javier, SS Javier originally signed with the Twins back in 2015 for $4 million and he has been slowly working his way through the Twins system. He spent 2016 in the Dominican Summer League and jumped to Elizabethton in 2017. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all the 2018 season. Last year he played the entire year at Cedar Rapids and hit .177/.278/.323 (.601) with 21 extra-base hits. Minnesota left him off their 40-man roster and exposed him to the Rule 5 Draft. He wasn’t selected and this means he will stay in the organization. Now, he will have plenty to prove next season and he still has plenty of promise. One to watch: Misael Urbina, CF Urbina signed with the Twins during the international signing period back in 2018. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League and hit .279/.382/.443 (.825) in 50 games. He has great speed and was able to show that with five triples and 19 stolen bases last season. On the defensive side, he uses his speed to be a good to be a strong defender in center field and he continues to improve with his arm. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Twins are with Urbina. Will they move him to Elizabethton like they did with Javier? What prospects will you be keeping an eye on this coming season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Twins fans have been waiting for the club to add the impact starting-pitching the front office mentioned at the beginning of the offseason. However, adding Homer Bailey and Rich Hill left fans feeling underwhelmed. Hill will turn 40 in March and he won’t be able to take the mound until June after elbow surgery. Can the Twins ride Hill into the playoffs and turn him into their own Mr. October?Previous Playoff Experience Hill is no stranger to the playoffs as he has pitched for the Dodgers in each of the last four postseasons. This includes multiple World Series starts even though Los Angeles ended up falling short in both appearances. This still takes nothing away from what Hill has been able to do in October. Hill has made 12 career postseason starts and 13 appearances overall. For his career, he has a 3.06 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a 65 to 32 strikeout to walk ratio. His 11.0 SO/9 is higher than his career mark of 9.6 SO/9 and he has given up fewer hits and home runs per nine innings in the playoffs. His 53-playoff innings isn’t exactly a large sample size, but it is a lot of innings when compared to other pitchers currently on the Twins staff. His age could be a concern but using the first half of the season to rehab could keep him healthy and performing well into October. 40-Year Old Pitchers Few pitchers find success into their age-40 season and the pitchers at the top of the WAR list are a who’s who of baseball’s best pitchers. According to FanGraphs, the top age-40 seasons for pitchers have been from Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Cy Young, John Smoltz, Dutch Leonard, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux. Hill isn’t exactly in the same category as those players. Those players also found minimal playoff success in their age-40 season. In fact, Clemens and Maddux were the only players in the group to make the playoffs. Maddux made one start in the 2006 NLDS against the Mets and allowed four earned runs in four innings. Clemens made four starts in the 2003 playoffs as the Yankees went all the way to the World Series. His best start in those playoffs came against the Twins as he allowed one earned run on five hits across seven innings. Hill is a wild card in the Twins ultimate plan to win back-to-back AL Central titles. When he has been healthy, he has been very good, but those opportunities have been few and far between. Hill could provide a boost to the club in the second half, but it seems unlikely for him to be a the impact pitcher the Twins will need in October. What are your expectations for Hill? Will he provide anything for the Twins in the playoffs? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Every MLB organization starts the season with the same end goal, to win the World Series. Obviously, some teams are better equipped than others to make a deep run through October. When a team has the pieces in place, it is imperative for them to take advantage of their championship window. The Twins saw the window open last year and now there are only a few years to take advantage of that window being open.“Windows Close Very, Very Quickly” The Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox are both in similar situations. Each team has won a title since 2016 and now they are facing some uncertainty. Rumors have swirled about the Cubs fielding offers for Kris Bryant and the Red Sox entertaining the thought of a Mookie Betts trade. These players were cheaper when each club won their title and now it might be time to move onto a less expensive player or prospect. “The two most important commodities in the game are payroll flexibility, No. 1, and young, controllable talent. Even if you’re a large-market team and have no payroll flexibility, you’re a small-market team,” said former Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd. “Windows close very, very quickly within the game. Everybody wants to build a Bill Belichick model [of sustainability], but with guaranteed contracts and the way our sport works, it’s very, very difficult to do that.” Forbes baseball writer Maury Brown believes MLB expects windows to be open for roughly five years. Low revenue clubs can expect to be a little shorter and higher revenue clubs can expect to be a little longer. Multiple prospects need to hit at the same time and the organization needs to make appropriate supplemental moves, but he feels confident the league likes to tout five years as a bit of a “standard.” Minnesota’s Window Last off-season, Minnesota was able to sign Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to very team-friendly deals. Deals like these will help the Twins to keep their window open longer, but there are plenty of other players that still need long-term contracts. Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are all part of Minnesota’s young core and all three could be out of a Twins uniform by the time of the 2023 off-season. When it comes to revenue, Minnesota ranks near the bottom of MLB, so this likely means their window of opportunity will be less than five years. This makes sense when considering the core players mentioned above. Minnesota has one of baseball’s top-ranked farm systems and these up-and-coming players could help to keep Minnesota’s window open a little longer, but there’s no guarantees that prospects will pan out at the big-league level. Another option for the front office is to supplement the roster by trading away prospects. If Minnesota’s window is going to be less than five seasons, it makes sense to take full opportunity of the window being open. The 2019 season showed the front office a lot of things and last off-season they had a clear message to fans. “The best moves are made not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open,” said General Manager Thad Levine. “We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.” Many fans would agree that the window is now open and it’s up to the front office to take advantage of the opportunity. How long do you feel the window is for the Twins to win a championship? Can the front office do anything to extend the window? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Looking into the future can be an exercise in futility, but every year I try and predict which players will be occupying Minnesota’s line-up four years in the future. There can be plenty that changes over the course of those four years and prospects can rise or fade out. For now, let’s look into the crystal ball and see who could be part of the Twins long-term plans.C: Mitch Garver Garver has been my pick for starting catcher in each of the last three years (see links below) and he did nothing to change those projections this season. By 2023, he will be 32-years old, so it will be interesting to see how his body handles the rigors of catching. The Twins are in search of a first baseman and there’s a chance Garver could spend more time at this position. This would keep Garver in the line-up on a more regular basis and it could help him keep his legs fresh. First Base: Alex Kirilloff Kirilloff started playing more time at first base last season. This will give him more defensive flexibility and allow him to reach the big leagues sooner. He has one of the best hit tools in the Twins system, but he saw his numbers dip a little last season after putting together a monster 2018 campaign. He has a good chance to make his big-league debut in 2020 and by 2023 he should be well entrenched as a regular in the Twins line-up. Second Base: Luis Arraez Arraez is one of the easiest picks for any future Twins line-up. The 22-year old burst on the scene last year and hit .334/.399/.439 (.838) across 92 games. He was a revelation in the batter’s box as he seemed to know the strike zone like a 10-year veteran. One of his most memorable at-bats came after he was a pinch hitter and entered the game with an 0-2 count. Arraez is never going to have huge power numbers, but he has been able to hit at every level where he has played. Third Base: Royce Lewis Royce Lewis was drafted by the Twins as a shortstop, but there are some that question whether he will be able to stick at that position long-term. To move to third base, Lewis is going to have to make some changes on the offensive side of the ball. He has a big leg kick and a lot of unnecessary movement with his hands. Minnesota has some time to tweak his swing before he debuts, and Lewis is athletic enough to make the changes. Shortstop: Jorge Polanco Polanco was the starting shortstop for the American League in the All-Star Game and he is under contract through at least 2023. That being said, he had a negative ranking according to SABR’s Defensive Index, which ranked him eighth among qualifying AL shortstops. He made improvements last year, but he will be 29-years old in 2023. Will he have lost a step by that point? Would the Twins be able to move him to another defensive position? Left Field: Trevor Larnach Larnach had one of the strongest seasons among Twins top prospects. Between High-A and Double-A, he hit .309/.384/.458 (.842) with 44 extra-base hits. Because of his college experience, he is actually older than Alex Kirilloff and he is the same age as Luis Arraez. Like Kirilloff, he has an opportunity to debut in 2020, but it would likely have to be the result of an injury to one of the regular outfielders. Center Field: Byron Buxton Buxton will be in an interesting spot by 2023. Can he find a way to stay healthy for an entire season? Will last year’s offensive improvements continue? He has a lot to prove during the 2020 season, but fans can hope he clears up any doubts before 2023. He would be entering his age-29 season, which should put him at the peak of his value. Speed is a big part of his game and he will need to show that he can adjust as Father Time starts to slow him down. Right Field: Max Kepler Kepler was given the opportunity to be the Twins lead-off hitter last season and he certainly proved the team made the right choice. He compiled an .855 OPS on the way to cracking 36 home runs and 32 doubles. By 2023, Kepler could be one of the team’s leaders on and off the field especially after the team signed him to an extension last off-season. His contract does have a team option for 2024, so Kepler could be amid a contract year in the 2023 season. Designated Hitter: Miguel Sano Sano has seen some ups and downs throughout his Twins tenure and it’s interesting to think about what the future could hold for the burly third baseman. There’s a chance the 2020 season will be his last season on the defensive side of the ball. Nelson Cruz is under contract for one more year and then Sano is the likely choice to take over the DH role. There is no guarantee he will be with the Twins in 2023 since he can be a free agent in 2022. Could someone like Polanco take over this spot if Sano doesn’t re-sign with the club? What do you think the 2023 line-up will look like in Minnesota? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. PREVIOUS YEAR’S PREDICTIONS 2020 Line-Up 2021 Line-Up 2022 Line-Up MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article