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singlesoverwalks

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Everything posted by singlesoverwalks

  1. singlesoverwalks
    I am...happy.
  2. singlesoverwalks
    Seems kind of passive-aggressive of Rocco to put in Richard's there. Like "Look what you made me do." "Oh, why don't I put in the reliever you got us at the trade deadline--ope! Didn't see THAT coming."
  3. singlesoverwalks
    I believe it, but they weren't going to offer too much because of the intra-division factor.
  4. singlesoverwalks
    I agree with the first two sentences but not with the third sentence. This is about risking your future success to go for success this year. You lay it on the line when you think you have a great shot - as evidenced by that great record. When you do that, you're mortgaging your future to maximize your chances of winning a championship this year. The rest of the time, you figure baseball is a high variance game. You get into the playoffs and hope to get lucky.
  5. singlesoverwalks
    It goes both ways. The Twins don't want to give the Tigers a prospect who's going to beat them up for five years.
  6. singlesoverwalks
    I'm not applying for those jobs, just typing in the comments box here. But, yeah, I think that's the playbook for teams like the Twins, pretty clearly. Most of the time they should be trading away established players for prospects. Why? Because they usually can't or won't pay the freight for good players in free agency. To have a shot at contending, they have to have a steady flow of good pre-free-agency players. If you deviate too much from this playbook and you aren't a high-budget team, you end up looking like the Rockies or the Royals. The well runs dry for years at a time. I'm not an absolutist. Sometimes the market is different and there are opportunities. This year, some of the best available pitchers were on the Tigers and White Sox. Those trades are more difficult to pull off in both directions. Kikuchi cost the Astros a really high price in prospects. I am glad the Twins didn't match that offer. KC traded a low-grade relief prospect for Michael Lorenzen. That sounds good until you look at his recent performance. But that's probably the trade that has the best chance to look like one the Twins should have made. In conclusion: no I'm not saying you never trade away any prospects, but I think you've got to be way more cautious about it than the Yankees or Dodgers are.
  7. singlesoverwalks
    Did you follow the Twins-Yankees and Twins-Orioles series? We're a dangerous enough team, but we usually can't hang with them. I think if you're the Twins, given the (perhaps self-imposed by the Pohlads) resource constraints, you hold your prospects close until you can see the whites of their eyes. OK, horrible mixed metaphor. I mean, you don't trade prospects away until the year where you have the best record in the league. Then you go for it. The rest of the time, you're trying to be good enough to make the playoffs and hope lightning strikes.
  8. singlesoverwalks
    On the one hand, as someone reading this site you are likely a committed fan of the Pohlads' family bizniz here and this is more or less how it almost always is. It's infuriating, but if you expected otherwise, you are Charlie Brown and you haven't figured out that Lucy pulls the football out every single time. On the other hand, I'm not sure there was anything on offer that was worth the asking price to the Twins. We're not the Orioles where it looks like we have a great chance to win the 2024 World Series. We actually do have a chance, but it's not a great bet. I actually don't think this was the year to roll the dice and trade away a lot of prospect value.
  9. singlesoverwalks
    It would be cool if Randy got a chance to start, became the team's ace in September and won three games in the World Series. Not saying that's going to happen, just that it would be cool.
  10. singlesoverwalks
    I've gotta think this is the high grocery bills hitting the Pohlads in the pocketbook.
  11. singlesoverwalks
    I would say they really value fielding. He's also getting a boost for baserunning. And it's a cumulative stat, so having more time with the team than (say) Carlos Correa explains a lot of it. it is striking that he's almost equal to Michael Cuddyer, who spent a lot more time with the team and was thought of as a real standout.
  12. singlesoverwalks
    I was looking at Fangraphs' ranking of Twins position players by career WAR as a Twin and... I'm just the messenger.
  13. singlesoverwalks
    I think the problem is the branding. WAR stands for wins above replacement. It claims to quantify how many wins the player would add to your team's record. But I don't see how you can ignore game situations in a statistic that makes that claim. If it were just branded as a composite of different averages - like Ultimate Player Rater or something like that - it would be easier to stomach. I don't buy the claim that it actually tells me how many wins a player would add at all. (As for WPA, I don't think it does that either. It's too situational and luck-based. It also ignores fielding. There should be a compromise between the two statistics.)
  14. singlesoverwalks
    One of the critiques of WAR is that it doesn't take the game situation into account. That is, Vásquez's home run last night was worth just as much as if he'd hit it while losing 10-0. This critique comes from none other than Bill James. WAR is hegemonic right now - people on online message boards will attack you if you question it. But you do should question that part.
  15. singlesoverwalks
    I mean, Vásquez must go up several notches in the estimate of Twinsdaily.com commentators. That home run at that moment means a LOT.
  16. singlesoverwalks
    (whispers) we could call up rAnDy DoBnAk
  17. singlesoverwalks
    Well I, for one, appreciate the A's. It's going to be a rude awakening playing an average MLB team in the D-backs.
  18. singlesoverwalks
    Santana Is a pro.
  19. singlesoverwalks
    These uniforms are some doofy Mariners ****.
  20. singlesoverwalks
    It's a good question. Who knows. The patience question seems a lot like asking whether a investor should hold an under-performing stock or sell. You can come up with all kinds of fancy ways of answering that question, but in truth the stock could go either way, and you just don't know. But some investors are better at holding the stock for the right amount of time than others. Flourishing in a different system: I think that's definitely a thing. Prospects are people, and a new employer can make a big difference.
  21. singlesoverwalks
    I used to think the Twins were bad at developing prospects. However, this recent Fangraphs article has a reasonable methodology, and their model shows that the Twins are pretty good - especially with hitting prospects. I'm not sure I 100% buy the model, but it's tempered my scorn for the Twins' prospect development a bit. I think it's just that young players are hard to develop, and there's a high failure rate. Also - has anyone checked out Brent Rooker's stats lately? The guy has an 868 OPS this year. Sometimes it just takes them a while.
  22. singlesoverwalks
    You have to either laugh or cry.
  23. singlesoverwalks
    I'm fascinated by how the Twins' playoff odds graph on Fangraphs is pretty much a sine wave. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs?lg=AL&div=C&stat=poff&year=2024 By the way, this site published a post calling the Twins "overwhelming favorites" to win the division when they were at their peak. 😂
  24. singlesoverwalks
    We know Vasquez's ceiling but not Camargo's.
  25. singlesoverwalks
    Technically, I didn't say I'm not sympathetic. I only said the audience would be less sympathetic. Man, I love Royce Lewis.
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