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Joe A. Preusser

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Everything posted by Joe A. Preusser

  1. What gives me hope that Diamond could be a lasting talent is that even when he "regressed" after the ASB, his 2nd half ERA was still just over 4. Not exactly terrible. My prediction for '13 is an entire season of 3.90 ERA ball.
  2. Fun article, I enjoyed reading it. Adam Johnson was the name that leapt to the front of my mind as the biggest bust in recent team history. I was always hearing about how much talent he had, but whenever I'd look at his minor league stats they were always beyond terrible. Too bad.
  3. Don't let him off the hook that easily....
  4. #1 in my book, not even close. When I discovered the Twins in 1985 as a 6 year old, I could and would speak knowledgably and glowingly about every single Twins player...except Ron Davis. His is the only Twins baseball card I ever used to turn my bike into a "motercycle."
  5. To sign Bourne, especially at the outrageous price of 20 mil! for the year comletely misses the point of this offseason. And that was to clear space on the roster to allow Bensen, Hicks, et al to prove themselves at the MLB level. Brining in an overpriced CF is the absolute last thing the Twins should do at this point.
  6. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate Boras the way many baseball fans do. He's clearly a great agent who does his job well. But his philosophy is clearly geared to the hard line, which is a higher risk, high reward strategy. If I have a kid who's never made a cent playing baseball, I'm telling him to get paid first, then worry about the super dollars during his next contract. Who in their right mind would risk injury and the prospect of never ever making ANY baseball money by not taking a deal worth over what Pitt was allowed to pay? Great stragety for a guy who has 20 mil in the bank, not so much for a poor kid just starting out.
  7. Yes, technically Appel is the boss and Boras is the employee. But does it seem likely that an impressionable 22 year old will tell his hard-lined super agent who is telling him to walk to go take a seat and let himself make the decisions? That's a stretch, no?
  8. 27 mil over 3 years. Did I really need to explain this?
  9. The DFA pickup(s) seem very possible, even likely. As for moving any more of our lineup, I just don't see that happening. I think we shed exactly as much as we should have this offseason, with the returning lot a fair bet to play even money baseball. If we go any younger you risk the Kirby Pucket effect, and set back the team more than is necessary.
  10. Optimism, Optimism, Optimism. He will return to All-Star form and we will give him a nice, easy 27/3 deal to keep him around through our return to the playoffs.
  11. Can anyone tell me (without looking it up) what Tim Laudner hit for the '87 twins?
  12. I can't agree. What if he's a perennial All-Star by that time? Wouldn't you want that year of control then vs. ~ 4-5 starts at the beginning of this season? Cost/benifit is off the charts.
  13. Sorry, I'm not buying an automatic downgrade in the offense. You put an All-Star calibur Morneau into the middle of last year's lineup, replace Span and Revere with reasonable replacements, and you hold steady in runs scored right there. Forget the possibilities that Plouffe and Hicks/Benson and Doumit and even Mauer could ALL have better years. More than anything else, this season's offense will hinge on whether or not Morneau can round back into All-Star form. And I'd rate that proposition better than even money.
  14. I found myself thinking yesterday about how awesome it would be to do ths professionally for an MBL team. Just sit around and tinker with numbers and equations all day and predict he next superstars for the sport. I could think of worse jobs!
  15. Nice job, you obviously put a lot of time and effort into this. Here are a few possible caveats I noticed: 1) Your numerical breakdown of the minor leagues is way oversimplified. All Rookie Leagues: 1 A: 2 A+: 3 AA: 4 AAA: 5 MLB: 6 I would be inclined to give these numbers more thought, as much of your calculations are based on them. For instance, the jump from A to AA is considered by many to be the most dificult. You also have the gap between rookie ball to high A+ at 2, where the gap from AAA to MLB is 1. I have always considered (right or wrong) that high A+ was just a crystalization of the best talent in rookie and A, so that gap seems high. I would bet the guys and gals on here can give you a much more comprehensive set of reasoning on how to evaluate the various levels. 2) This is an easy, quick fix. Your level number should be a weighted average, based on exact time spent in either level. 3) It would be easy to add an "age coefficient" to your calculations in order to take this into account. Not saying you should, but you mentioned Cole's age, so I'd suggest at least considering it if you think it fits into your analysis. On the whole, an enjoyable read. Thanks for your effort!
  16. Admittedly, I do not know a great deal about this man, but his career stat line does not immediately inspire "upgrade with stick" thoughts. ~.250 career AVG, less than .300 OBP, no pop whatsoever, good glove. Sounds a lot like some of our current options, does it not?
  17. I couldn't disagree more. If we have a good team and are willing to pay market value, we can attract big name free agents. A few might shy away because of the reduced capacity for endorsements, but all else being equal, most will come play here. Right now we are not competitive and aren't willing to pay top dollar because of it, so they are looking elsewhere. It's as simple as that.
  18. Fantastic article. I've been a "fat-boy" for over a decade now, and my new daughter recently inspired me to try to leave the club forever. Let me just say it is a fair bit more difficult shedding 13 years of unhealthy habits than I had anticipated, but I'll get there. Hrbek was always my favorite player growing up, so much so that I even patterned my batting stance after him. I never really remember him being fat until like 93-94. As long as he has no regrets with how his life went, then I won't be the one to criticize him or ask what might have been. We all make and live with our own choices.
  19. Respectfully I have to disagree. The league minimum is a whopping $500,000, not exactly chump change. You can either pay an unproven arm that amount, or double it for a guy like Capps. Capps would bring experience, not something to be dismissed. Now, if you were making the point that we should be getting our young arms more major league innings at the expense of a more seasoned veteran presence, then I would probably agree with that. But all else being equal, paying $500,000 for a no name AAA pitcher or $1 mil for Capps is as easy a choice as it gets. Capps gives you cheap experience and potential upside. Granted you have to be sure completely sure Capps is over his injury problems. And don't get me wrong, I'm not in love with this guy. But you could write down the name of any pitcher who has had Capps' past success and it would likely be the correct call to give him a 1 mil/1 contract. It just isn't that much money in MLB terms and the bargain potential is too great. If he washes out then send him packing, no big loss.
  20. I agree with most of what you said, but he HAS proven to be fairly effective in the past. I wouldn't be upset if they gave him just over a mil to see if he can round back into form. A million bucks is a lot to you and me, but not so much in MLB terms.
  21. - In honor of our 52nd year as the The Minnesota Twins, the club is proud to announce that if we are down by 5 by the 2nd inning, free beer the rest of the way. - We'd like to announce the first ever player/batboy position in history: Congratulations Drew Butera! - The club is proud to announce that the pine trees will be back as our starting center fielder. - The Team is officially going to be renamed the "Rochester Elite" squad. I kid because I love. Go Twins.
  22. Bull Durham. That was the first thing that came into my mind, my buddy even once commented that it looks like he needs to breath through his eyelids more. The second was from Major League when Wild Thing pitches before his glasses and Bob Eucker calls "Juuuuuuust a bit outside." Perhaps the only thing Sam needs is a pair of quasi-bad ass glasses?
  23. I am Mr. Second Chance, I will give almost any player the benefit of doubt and put a positive spin on their chances to regain form. But this...wow. I find myself extremely reluctant. 1.2 - 1.5 million tops. Anything more just seems like throwing money into the same old used car when you should be going out and getting someting newer and more reliable. Something that drives nicer, too.
  24. My best guess is .260, 25 HR, 80 RBI, .750 OPS. This coupled with average defense will give us our best 3rd baseman since Koskie. I haven't seen anything to tell me that he can't be that solid, average 3rd baseman we need, so pushing him into the outfield where we are already very full seems premature. As for Morneau, I am surprised how few people think we have a shot to resign him. He clearly loves playing with Mauer, and if he comes all the way around the concussion corner, why not offer him something in the neighborhood of 27/3? I won't argue about the pitching, but I will say I'm willing to see how it all plays out with our young guys by the end of the year.
  25. This is pretty straight forward: It would be irresponsible NOT to take advantage of an extra year of team control. Two weeks is an insignificant portion of the season. It would also be irresponsible TO mess around with the arbritration deadline. Both because it is inexact and involves guesswork, and because ~The end of June IS a significant portion of the season. Also think of it this way. A year of control of a player is potentially worth quite a bit. One or two million dollars lost in arbritation can only be worth that dollar amount. It's pretty clear where the cost/benifit analysis leads here.
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