Hawkeye Bean Counter

Not spending money on Relief pitchers and being very selective with pitching contracts is obviously the primary method to the Front Office philosophy. A 538-494 record is quite the accomplishment since 2017. It has been a gradual process of stealing from the minors to supplement the majors team success (affectively trading away the entirety of the 2021 draft class) but grabbing pitchers like Paddack and Staumont have been successful for the Twins. They have hit on more of the injured players recovering than retread starting pitchers that are significantly past their prime. This is the most balanced between the minors and majors I think I have seen since I have been an adult fan. You have a healthy amount of high quality arms in the minors and we have an ace in Pablo which I don't feel we have had since Santana. We have a nice 4 year window to do something special and/or find another ace for Pablo to hand off the baton too. You have some high quality bats with not only immense ceilings but competitive quality players in the minors. I like the winning attitude they are creating. The last 2 years all levels of the minors have been competitive in their divisions and this looks to continue. Under the radar bats are plentiful and waiting for an opportunity to see if they can succeed.

Staumont has upside. I think the Twins feel comfortable with having 39 spots and opening another up if they intend to move him to the injured list for the year. Where is the upside - without reading the article is finding the velocity again which is not a guarantee, and continue working on the slider and or sweeper. It seems hitters were able to tell when the curveball was coming by not having a similar tunnel, the other is he was having difficulty keeping it in the zone. So the issue became the curve was no longer a weapon as teams knew to lay off the pitch. This raised his walks. The other oddity is he extremely struggled in Kauffman stadium. You are outside of SSS area on that one, so it becomes were the dimensions of Kauffman hurting him and why, and if so, why didn't the defense shift to where a majority of the hits were made. So yes if the velocity comes back and a sweeper/slider, is able to keep hitters back on their toes, there is the possibility that he reverts back to his dominant self. I know there were some oddities with his early stats, but talking with a couple royal fans, they feel he really lost something after getting Covid. He had significant weightloss. I am curious if he begins to regain some of that weight back as he gets further away from the Illness. Could have a situation between continued regular health improvement, healing the shoulder, removing self from Kauffman (including increasing confidence) and lastly a sweeper that makes his entire arsenal much more effective, you have a very suitable set up man for a cool 1 million dollars. This may not manifest this year. There is a very real possibility we continue to rehab and work with him and he is almost like a deadline addition without having to trade for one. Otherwise its a stash for next year.

Back to another Caretaker article that doesn't give you the full article. I will continue to post if you want the caretaker articles put them in the caretaker section. Muddles up for your regular posters. Posted as a main article at the top of the web page. In 2 separate spots. One that says caretakers but isn't clear, the other, the one that I clicked on that had no forewarning of a caretakers article.

You forgot the + LOL. How many pitchers do you think pitched more than 130 innings last year? Are you surprised to know it was only 86. That is 2 1/2 pitchers per a staff. Who do we have that could potentially do that next year Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober Varland plus any other pitcher signed or traded for. The Twins had 4 of the 84 last year. With 2 of them being Ryan and Ober LOL. I would consider last year a pretty successful season with those 2 just giving us a little over 130 innings. I think Ryan has the ability to get more in the 150 to 170 range, but I think 130 is about what to expect from Ober and anything more is gravy. I think statistically Gray had an otherworldly start to the year. If you remove his first 2 months, I think as a whole, this pitching staff will perform better than last year, which is a very high hurdle. I think Lopez is rounding into a true ace. Ober has always been above average when available, and a healthy Ryan is a solid low #2 to high #3. Paddack is the potential difference maker. Another high end #2 really rounds out the rotation. You can have a rotation of #5 pitchers and still have an excellent staff. I am still waiting to see if they make another move either from signing or trading for another starter.

I disagree, If the Lopez is a true fire ace, you need 2 of the 3 of Ryan Ober and Paddack to be 130+ inning starters. If all 3 are healthy and solid then you are in a really strong position. You have Varland, likely another traded for pitcher, Festa, SWR, Canterino as potential other options. The depth the Twins have had on the pitching staff is becoming stronger each year. That is potential 5 different options to fill in the back end of your rotation. If not, Varland and Canterino can potentially be bullpen options.

I am surprised there isn't a little more positivity regarding this signing. Most likely if the Twins signed him they are optimistic about the medicals. I am curious how far along he is in the rehab process, generally it looks like a 4-6 month recovery, then most pitchers are not at a level to pitch on the mlb level for the next year. In watching him pitch the last several years, I thought he had high end stuff. Maybe he loses the stuff if he had the less invasive procedure maybe he doesn't. This ultimately come down to does he regain the velocity, and then is the slider (which is evidenced by last years stats) - a more effective pitch than the curve ball that hitters were laying off of which he did not seem to be able to keep in the zone. I would say this is better than a lottery ticket, there is definitely a potential high end reliever here. You are only paying 1 million for the option to see if you can rehab him this year to be an option next year in my opinion. He may regain the pitching feel sooner than others, but that is a lot to expect. May be an end of the year arm to throw in the mix is the best bet I think on this signing.

Right now I would argue the 3 pitchers in the system with the highest ceiling outside of Lopez - are Paddack, Canterino and Priellip. Now we have had some arms really develop but these 3 are all high end arms with immense injury history. It would be great if all 3 were healthy this year and moving forward, but odds are at least 1 is going to bust or get injured again. Now we get to add Staumont to the group. The way Paddack pitched in the playoffs gave a lot of confidence to what he can potentially do next season. Generally the command is the last thing to come, but he had not only more velocity but the command was there in spades. Obviously it was a small sample size, but he handled the Astros line up 2nd to only Lopez in my opinion. We definitely seem to be cornering the injured pitchers market and willing to see their performance once they heal. Similar to Paddack I see this year as a transition year for Staumont. Canterino is really on his last year to show something in positive in my opinion. Priellip I hope is finally healthy.

I think I would lean away, tends to have a good year followed by a bad year.

I could see Bally's as 1 year stop gap, want nothing of a long term plan.

Manoah's issue appear to be mental and his physical status. If he is taking better care of his body in the offseason, I think it will give you a big indicator on whether he will be successful this year or not. The second is how severe is the shoulder injury. He received an injection for shoulder discomfort this fall. Seems like a Paddack situation all over. Still likely worth a flier.

My expectations are 1 decent FA addition and 1 pitcher traded for (thinking a #3 type pitcher with upside). I am still have a gut feel we go after and get Hoskins. Minimal smoke there other than the Cubs and we have some interest. If Cubs want him, they will get him, but will just have to wait and see.

Well not getting Gray gets us a 1st round draft pick. Which may allow us to trade the comp B pick for something or a prospect like Soto for something of quality. If we can pull off another Gray trade, I think everyone would be pretty happy.

Soto has a high ceiling but yes is still raw. It is good and bad. he doesn't have engrained bad habits, easier to mold, and less stress on the arm, and has a really nice build should be able to handle the physical demands. His success will likely come down to increased control. If you can gain that and develop even further the change up and slider, with the elite fastball, you have a possible #1 pitcher. However, you have possibly injuries and other delays or hurdles in development that make success on high school pitchers that much more difficult. However, with Questad, you have take 2 chances to hopefully find an elite pitcher.

Its kind of like tax time, it doesn't matter the time frame of when income or expense or withholding occurs, at the end of the day, the final picture will always be the same at 12/31. So the question is who cares about momentum in December on signing? And why would you. This is the time frame of massive overpays. We have a really well balanced team already with relatively few holes. I hope for some upgrades, but am happy with where we are currently. The major way this team will improve is through a trade, which is obviously subtracting someone from the team.

Lets see, Varland could either be an elite RP, or may have found what level of pitching is needed in the mlb to succeed and be even better than Kremer. Beyond that the Orioles are not trading away any starting pitching. They already have gaps, they won't create more.

Yes if he has close to a .900 OPS or hight in A or/or A+ ball he will be a top 5 prospect most likely.

To be fair you asked 2 questions in that post, one if I had seen them which I ignored and the second was which rodriguez it was 😁 They had a video replay of one of the FCL games. Both Winokur and Jenkins looked really good, smooth athletic. Good swings, although Winokur does seem to swing for the fence a bit. Both players looked fairly seasoned for being 18 years old. That is where projection comes in. Jenkins bat to ball skills were slightly better, but for the most part Winokur hung with Jenkins and beyond those 2 the FCL team didn't have much, maybe 1 other solid bat so they really weren't protected much. What was interesting to me was Jenkins did better in A ball than FCL. I would be curious if we would see the same improvement in Winokur or a drop off like Max Clark. These are young players so plenty of valleys, for certain for these players. I just think Winokur although a large player, has decent bat to ball skills and already with immense power (I think hit if not the farthest one of the farthest home runs in the draft combine. If we were to get lucky and all of Winokur, Rodriguez and Jenkins pan out, that is a hell of a defensive and offensive outfield in 2-3 years.

its Emmanuel, he has immense plate discipline, still some high strike outs. Yes I see Winokur as a similar type level as Emmanual, with the same risks. If you look at them both 50 hit tools, 60 power, then speed and defense Winokur has an actual bit of an advantage. Now he may lose that if he gets bigger. Winokur will have to rely on better hitting with more power than Rodriguez. Rodriguez if he can keep the OBP needs to increase his power a bit, or give up a little walks for more hits. Both players have sky high ceilings, I think Winokurs is higher. Thats where I think both should be higher than the pitchers mentioned earlier. The upside is what is intriguing.

E Rodriguez struck out 56 times in 153 plate appearances in the FCL in 2021. Winokur struck out 23 times in 71 plate appearances. We are talking extremely SSS but in his first 11 games (50 plate appearances) struck out 18 times. In his last 6 games (21 plate appearances) struck out 5 times. I think we will see improvement in the strikeouts as he gets more acclimated to better pitching. A potential 60 power, 60 speed player in a 6 ft 5 frame is insane. You have a starter kit that has the possibility to turn into an Aaron Judge type player. Same concerns with Judge as Winokur - concern over the hit tool. Now will he find the power while maintaining the speed and defense like Judge, most likely not. There is only 1 Judge. He is also just out of high school. However both Winokur and Jenkins have elite ceilings.

On MLB trade rumors it came out today that Seattle isn't really interested in trading their top 4 pitchers. Maybe they will change their minds, but at this point I am not even considering Seattle as an option at this point.

I am still hoping we can find a #2 or higher out of the farm system by 2026. Who are those possibilities: 1. Canterino (20%) - has the stuff hasn't shown the health or stamina. 2. Priellip, (20%) - just like canterino, has the ability and arm looked good early before being shut down again. 3. Raya (20%) - maybe not quite the ability and questionable health but in the same ballpark. 4. Hall (30%) - Hall is a pitchers pitcher, elite in college without elite stuff, if the Twins can improve some velocity he could easily fly through the system. 5. Festa, Lewis, Culpepper 10% - All have shown well but most likely just #3 or #4 pitchers in the MLB. 6. Soto Questad(0%) - It will take more than 2 years of seasoning. They are both projects at this point. 5. Morris SWR (less than 10%). possibilities here but most likely not #2 type pitchers. You have the box of chocolates with the rest of the 2023 draft class. I think at least 1 to 2 will emerge along with Hall.

Winokur has more upside than Culpepper, and much less injury risk than Canterino. I see him as more skilled and powerful Rodriguez. Rodriguez is primarily just OBP right now. Both with high strike out potential but potentially more hit tool with Winokur less control of the strike zone. Keaschall is a borderline top 10 prospect. Its odd, they will give Priellip, Soto, Canterino (injury or very little innings pitched) the benefit of the doubt, but get a good performance by Winokur in an admittedly small sample size and leave him off. I could argue Winokur has the highest ceiling of any of the 4 players.

The name doesn't really matter. Will likely come from Marlins or Seattle, and will likely be a #3 pitcher the Twins think they can improve.

As it stands I think Kepler is right on the cusp of a QO. For comparisons sake Candelario got 3 years $45 mil and on a 1 year deal would have been closer to $20 mil. Its a coin flip as it stands regarding the QO. Then it comes down to what do you expect Kepler to do next year at the plate. Did something fundamentally change at the end of last year compared to the previous seasons - even still he has been a 2 WAR player each of the last 3 seasons. I think Max became more aggressive to at the end of the season evidenced by his increasing swing percentage particularly early in the count. He was taking good aggressive swings on pitches he could handle, rather than making weak contact with 2 strikes. I think we will see some give and take this year with Kepler but I anticipate a better overall season than last year (he doesn't have to be as good as he was at the end of the season, just avoid the extremely slow start). So do the Twins trade him. This all comes down to value just like last year. I think the Twins hold on to him unless blown away with a trade deal. I think they are more willing to cut a deal on Polanco, but we can wait and see on that. If Kepler has a good season the Twins benefit from the good season and a QO compensation. If not you had a viable outfielder while we begin to try to reconfigure what the future outfield will be. We will see what happens.

This is exactly correct. Had they announced as a $460 million contract, there would have been no issues, the issues is people think because they announce it as a 700 million contract. No it is $460 million where instead of paying the player they will put 46 million into an investment vehicle most likely interest bearing accounts that will then be able to pay the $68 million starting in 10 years. The future payments will be paid for and no issues. When MLB tv was talking about it earlier today it sounded as if only 2 million was being counted against tax money, once I looked into it I see no issues with the deal or the structure. Its just different.