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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It’s an early 2nd value. They must be pretty high on him.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So the Twins have saved 240k on Lackey, 436k on Tinney and 37k on Murdoch so far. That is better than I expected. I am really curious to see how much they have to pay Waschmann.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He probably doesn't field as well drop stepping and turning, running and tracking the ball. When he can go horizontal or run forward that is when he is at his best. They are more willing to give up the bloop hit for a single than a double or triple to the wall. Thats just good strategy for a new fielder.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Bean - You know what the biggest lesson is? That the Twins were needing to do a full rebuild rather than continuing the mediocrity. If we can string together multiple years of good draft picks, get some good talent in from trades, it will open up the next window for the Twins to really compete. I could argue the Twins are showing you can rebuild a bullpen on the fly from scratch. The bullpen is trending toward solid. It still needs some work but if the pitching and hitting can hold on the bullpen only needs 1-2 more legit arms to be above average. For a small market team that you sold something that could be in all reality rebuilt fairly cheaply its a win. There is no other position you can do that with. Starting pitching - no, Catcher no, Shortstop - no. They have to know an area they can excel in to get outperformance for minimal investment. I think this stays with the Twins long term.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You are a top 5 drafted catcher in the draft - with arguably the best stats in a season for a catcher (Rutschman did his damage in the PAC 12 which isn't as good as the ACC). Like Rutschman he had the 1 elite season so there is a possibility its a bit of an anomaly. The only other catcher that can match the college stats is Posey. So yes Vahn Lackey at his point in his career is being compared to some lofty individuals, Joe and Buster. The issue is Catchers historically have a high bust rate, but I would argue Lackeys floor is maybe the highest of any catcher ever drafted. If you were to ask why its rather simple, he is really good at everything. He has great bat to ball skills, he manages an at bat well, he has minimal swing and miss, he had some of the highest exit velocities, he has great power, he has really good speed for a catcher, he may be the most athletic catcher ever (up for debate), he has a cannon for an arm and he is a really good defensive catcher. There really aren't many holes in his game. Rutschman hasn't met expectations and he is still at a 16.7 WAR. So when the 3 people you are being compared to are either hall of famers or really really good, its definitely good company to be in. Even still in a couple years no one will be calling him the next Joe Mauer. He will be Vahn Lackey, like no one has called Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan the next Santana. It's just a silly word game for a click bait article.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    How badly do they want Joe Ryan for 2027, is that the question we are asking ourselves? I think it is more complicated than that.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There are multiple issues Bean. 1. Joe Ryan has historically dropped in effectiveness in the 2nd half so teams may be wary of giving full value. 2. With a potential lockout teams may be concerned on giving full value for a season that may not occur or may not get the full value from Ryan for the trade assets given up. So no I don't think they will get a value that is worth Ryan. That likely won't occur until the offseason and the collective bargaining is agreed to. In either case, if someone is willing to overpay you generally take the overpay deal. It doesn't mean it will work out - kind of like Varland. They overpaid for him, but Varland is working out really well for Toronto. Pohlad has insinuated he was not trading Joe so if he did it would be used against him as well. The nuts and bolts of this is I don't see the Twins trading Joe unless its an overpay for the biggest reason being it would be another hit on the credibility of Joe and the organization even though its in the best interest of the organization.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Trade Joe Ryan if you get a massive offer. My perception is a massive offer wouldn't come. The last outing may hurt perception slightly. I don't think the Twins get the level of offer to trade him is my personal opinion. It is definitely a difficult call in either case. It really comes down to what other teams are willing to offer. Its in the best interest of the Twins to trade him. 1 more higher draft pick year. You have Pablo and Taj Bradley to lead the pitching staff next year and go from there.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I had 4 emojis I wanted to hit all at once lol, like, dislike love and laugh.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The article assumes the Twins thought they could rebuild a bullpen immediately. I think they fully anticipated it would take a year or two. The team played better than they expected in 2027. Tom wasn’t realistic this spring saying he expected they would win, he now says the team has outplayed their ability in the 1st half. They have 3-5 decent longterm pieces. Morris, Nance, Banda, Gomez and Sands. Rojas is a wildcard. Honestly the rebuild has gone better than anyone would have expected with minimal free agent signings. As to what the Twins received - Bradley alone would make it worth it. Add it that helped us get Vahn Lackey, anything we get from anything else will be gravy. Abel showed potential, Rojas is a live arm and we have have some athletic catchers we will see if they can hit. Other than Varland everyone else would have been gone by 2028. The issue is ripping the bandaid all off at once especially for a team that had high expectations killed fan morale.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Vahn Lackey is incredibly polished, he destroyed ACC pitching - which is superior to B1G pitching. I could argue Lackey's 2025 season was better than Chowolsky's 2025 and the 2026 version Lackey was clearly the best - and arguably one of the top hitting season in college this century at an extremely difficult defensive position. As long as Lackey's power can show up he should be an elite offensive catcher for the Twins.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ummm - absolutely no. Trading multiple really good assets for 2 months - seriously what are they trying to achieve.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It is silly that 3 games are going to determine if we are buyers or sellers but if we go 1-2 the remainder of this series we will have gone 2-5 and our odds have decreased significantly for the playoffs. You aren't going to spend when your odds are significantly lower.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You have a handful of clients that have taken extensions at various points. The most reason and really only one in the last 7 years is Pratt. Otherwise its been almost exclusively wait until free agency. This article is we need to sign him to an extension in the next 2 weeks before the deadline. I see the odds of this being 0% and would gladly make a bet with anyone thinking he will sign an extension in the next two weeks with Boras's aversion. Boras only signs an extension if his client says thats what they want.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This is a simple no. Jenkins is a Scott Boras client so an extension is dead at arrival. We have 6 years of Jenkins and unless Jenkins is willing to take a discounted offer he will be traded or sign elsewhere.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The sad thing is what we do will be highly dependent on the next 3 games. I really think we should trade Jeffers. Ryan only if there is a godfather offer. We can trade him in the offseason or run with him next year. Call me stupid but if someone wanted to pay closer value for Gomez I would consider trading him as well. As of now, our supply on hitters looks pretty good, moving forward we still need to work on the bullpen for next year as that is the year I really think we can start competing.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The odds he gets traded are increasing with each game.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We saved 240k on Lackey maybe a little on Tinney and some senior wings. We sign him no issues. He isn’t picked that high without verbal agreement.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I personally thought they would have given cash considerations to get him. Does 500k-1 million in additional compensation make it a game changer for the Twins to sign. Most likely not.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Coulombe appears to be low hanging fruit. Pick him off then figure it out from there. With sands and Roger’s we have 6 bullpen arms. I want 2 more to bump Roger’s to 8.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    @Mike Sixel a person claiming mental health issues is fine. Not controlling his emotions is another. Threatening to calling out another as a fat F and that he would kick his ass- means he doesn’t understand the concept of bullying ect. He wants to be a victim and an attacker at the same time. It’s more apparent he just got caught flipping someone off- was mad he got caught then made up a story. He’s been up and down for a while.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Keashall is finding himself and allowing his natural athleticism to be aggressive I. The outfield. Suddenly the confidence allows his bat to take again. You have 5 high fielding players Lackey, Jenkins Rodriguez, Culpepper and Houston. All of those at their development or skill level are fairly projectable. After that you have guys with one or more question marks- Mendez good bat what’s his defensive position- Tait, Winokur, Young and Tinney- can the hit tools be good enough. There is also defensive questions on these 4 as well and what their ultimate position is. in either case we appear to have a core to build around offensively. Continuing to find elite to good starters will continue to be the question mark. We can supplement this team with minimal investment. Tait and Rodriguez have enough questions I would be fine flipping for more long term help to the team. Beyond that- it’s trying to get pitching healthy- and get the pitchers at the correct levels to continue to develop. We have minimal hits for pitching in the 23/24 classes so 25 and 26 will have to hit on some.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    defense and bullpen are rounding into shape quite nicely.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Duran is a bit of a head case. had someone said something as bad as he claimed even with minimal fans in the stands, they track the guy down.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If we can win 2 out of 3 from our #3-#5 pitchers I expect us to do pretty well down the stretch.
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