Beast

If the Twins FO, or any other for that matter, balks at taking him because of they’re concerned about the salary, they should be fired immediately. Give me Skenes over any other player in the draft by a mile. I wouldn’t trade Skenes for any two of the other top 5. I’d gladly punt the rest of the draft for him.

I have no info, obviously, but get the feeling that he’s the one that’ll be left at 5. If he’s there, I’d have no problem with taking him (although he’s my least favorite of the 5). People have to realize, this is an 18 year old kid. We’re talking 4-5 years until he sniffs a cup of coffee in the majors. You cannot draft (or not draft) kids like this based on positional need. We have no clue what that need will be in 4-5 years. Remember 2-3 years ago when we had the most epic logjam in the OF in MLB history? Some of those guys left, some of them have been hurt, some have been terrible, some have moved to 1B…..passing on an 18 year old based on the fact that we currently have Matt Wallner, ERod, Mercedes, and Urbina in the system is ludicrous. It’s more likely that none of them turn into good MLB players vs. we don’t have room for them all on the MLB roster.

I actually prefer the toolsy HS OF approach of the past vs the 25 year old college corner OF/1B/DH approach of the present. Granted, the new regime hasn’t yet done that in the top 5, but I wouldn’t put anything past them at this point. I haven’t looked to see if there’s a college 1B ranked in the 30s we need to be concerned about them falling in love with.

I really like this kid. I’d be thrilled with the pick. I’d ultimately prefer Langford (Crews and Skenes aren’t a possibility). But, Clark seems to be the most likely of the top 5 to be there, and I wouldn’t spend a second thinking about it once on the clock.

I wouldn’t be disappointed by this pick. If they’re going to stray from the big 5 to defer money to a later round, I’d prefer they go this route vs. someone like Teel. To be clear, I’d rather they they just take Clark, Langford, etc. But, if they feel the need to get cute, shoot for the moon in terms of potential upside.

Just take BPA. The take a lower ranked player to save some money for later strategy isn’t something we need to do every year, and I’m not convinced it’s actually a viable strategy. What have we gotten out of that strategy to date? Enlow? If Teel is actually BPA, so be it. I’m not a huge fan of taking a catcher that early unless they’re a fairly clear cut star (Mauer, Rutschman, etc.). I don’t know enough to say he is or isn’t, but I’d rather go with one of the big 5. We seem to hear every year that teams cool on the top guys right before the draft, and actually like player X who is ranked lower. Its a negotiating tactic.

Just wait until they do a salary dump and trade him for peanuts to the someone like the Yankees (better yet, the Mets or Giants). Retain some salary just to shed a portion of it, putting the roster into a black hole for multiple years (also causing ownership to never sign off in a big contract again)….then he turns back into the best shortstop in the game, wins multiple rings, and postseason MVP awards. Why don’t people even consider the possibility that it’s not the player? Everyone is defaulting to, “I didn’t even want him in the first place,”. Not realizing that it’s something toxic here. Is it just coincidence that all of these guys that we traded are thriving, and all the ones who we kept stink? Nobody is performing, except Lewis, and there’s not a lack of talent. But, give it some time for the rot to set in on Lewis. He’s still bright eyed because he has short time with the big club. They’ll break his will in due time.

It’s time to start firing people. This has gone on long enough. The team has stunk and underachieved since 2019. I’m tired of the excuses of small sample sizes, the underlying numbers say this or that, etc. It’s time to accept that this team sucks, and it has for a long time now. 2019 might as well be a century ago. I don’t even have it in me to be upset with the FO and coaching staff anymore. This ownership group are a bunch of jellyfish. Hold somebody accountable, for crying out loud. Not only ownership, but the media. Nobody, from the players to coaches to the manager to the FO ever has to answer a tough question from the media. It’s absolutely embarrassing. Even here, all you see is articles about how Pagan is actually a great pitcher, how their drafts and trades aren’t as abysmal as they look, how Buxton DHing is genius…..but they just keep dropping baseball games like the bad news bears. They stink. They’re never winning a damn thing. Just say it. THEY STINK.

If I’m recalling the stat correctly from a Gleeman and Geek podcast at some point, there isn’t a pitcher (maybe reliever) in baseball that has a lower WPA than Pagan over the last 4 seasons. He’s been with Minnesota for 3 of those. Thats literally the opposite of valuable. I don’t care what his FIP is over the last few weeks. He could be Mariano Rivera for the next 2 years and still not have contributed a positive WPA number as a Twin. I do applaud the creative attempt at contrarianism.

He still has to prove he can clear the health hurdle. But, the early returns are promising. I’m not sure this team would still be afloat right now if not for his on-field contributions and infectious positivity. 5 tool may be a little strong. But he’s certainly got a number of things going for him right now

I’m a CPA. I fully understand what you’re saying. But, there are limitations on the benefits of present value. There’s a point at which it doesn’t compute. There are risks in any type of investment. But, people (particularly successful, rich people) still invest their money in long-term assets (Petty) vs. having the short term liquidity (Gray). If Petty turns into an ace caliber pitcher for a number of years - it vastly outweighs a couple years of a decent starting pitcher on a team that didn’t win squat. It’s not even close. If Petty reaches those heights, the only thing that would’ve made it worth it was if we had won something. We didn’t. We blew our short term liquidity on a bunch of value meals from McDonalds. Now we just sit back and hope Petty flames out, or it was a bad trade.

Not an awful track record, not great either. As mentioned above, Id also flip Lewis and Lee. Not even a question at this point in my mind. Lewis is looking like a decade long quality major leaguer. We don’t really know if Lee can even play in the MLB at this point. I’m just not a fan of taking guys like Sabato, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner with high draft picks. Those were thrown away picks, IMO. Their upside is very limited, they can’t play defense well, and you can find that type of guy for relatively cheap at the MLB level every year. Maybe take one of these guys every once in a while….but half the list is this type of player. I’d prefer guys like Miller. I think I even like the thought process of the Cavaco pick better than the Sabato pick. It’s like buying a lottery ticket vs. a $1 pull tab. Hit on the former and you’re right. Hit on the latter and you’ll be lucky if you can even cover your bar tab. Even if you hit on 100 of pull tabs, it’s not making a huge difference. I loved the Petty pick. I don’t see it as a success for getting two decent years of Sonny Gray on bad team. People point to it as a positive now, but that could look real bad in a few years. But, still a good pick. #3 on the list, IMO. Maybe even #2 behind Lewis considering the draft spot.

I mean, do we have to take a “high floor” college outfielder with “(insert adjective) power” and no defense with a first round pick (including comp picks) of every draft? Doesn’t seem to work out that well (referring to the comp pick, I like Clark at 5).

That’s one of the most therapeutic games that possible. Fantastic pitching performance. Correa and Buxton both going yard. That’s how you halt the free fall and energize an apathetic fanbase. Hopefully they can use this as a springboard and it’s a not a blip on the radar.

I’d advocate for a 6 man rotation if we had the pitchers to do so. I was a vocal supporter of it when I thought Mahle and Maeda were going to be healthy. I don’t see a downside. Especially with all of these guys that are prone to injury. Alas, Mahle is out. Varland isn’t good. Meada can’t stay healthy and has looked awful in the MLB. Who knows what the heck Keuchel is going to do. There is no reason to run out a 6 man rotation if the 5th and 6th guy aren’t any good.

Off topic a bit, but I can’t get over how awful that Marlins style hat is. Not only is this FO incapable of doing anything baseball related, but they turned our uniforms into an abomination as well. I do like the Navy and Cream uniforms with the TC logo. I’ll give them that one. Nothing else on or off the field is acceptable.

I mean, look at the pitching chart above. We have 3 serviceable relievers right now. Duran, Stewart, and Jax. They’ve collectively thrown fewer pitches and have have only 1 more appearance than a guy (Moran) who physically can’t throw an effective strike over the plate (4 appearances and 38 pitches for the former three vs. 3 appearances and 48 pitches for Moran). You can’t make this up. This is off the rails, out of control, lunacy. If I’m the commissioner, I open an investigation into whether they are actively throwing games for betting purposes. They can’t possibly be this incompetent.

They keep running these bullpen guys out there off the scrap heap. They keep running useless position players out there. They DH the best centerfield on the planet while playing the worst defender in the league at 2B. And it’s a mystery to them why it doesn’t work. “We have to figure this out.” I believe Baledelli that they don’t know. They asked Chat GPT and it told them this would work. This is a Three Stooges level comedy. Unrivaled incompetence. Is there a more poorly run professional sports franchise on planet earth right now?

He didn’t have that rough of an outing. We see worse outings nearly daily out of someone in our bullpen. Gray is supposed to be the leader of our pitching staff, the anchor. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this year. He’s right to be pissed at the seemingly incompetent (lately) Rocco Baldelli, who makes the wrong move 9 times out of 10. No matter how many writers that are de facto on the Twins payroll try to spin this as the right move…. It was the wrong move. If the Twins would’ve won the game, there would be an argument there. But, the bullpen went on to give up 3 runs immediately. No matter what the spreadsheet says, it didn’t work. It’s an overarching theme. It’s not the one loss that’s the issue. That’s what the “ball guys” seem to missing. There’s a human element here, and pitchers and agents are always thinking about the next contract. Who the hell is going to want to pitch here if you’re going to get yanked after 75 pitches and 2 earned runs after 5 innings? What would it have hurt this team to give Gray a shot to work through an off day? We’re seeing it across the board right now. Pinch hitting for guys like Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis for some bad journeyman because they hit on the opposite side is absurd. They’ve gone too far. We’re watching the Frankenstein’s Monster of baseball analytics.

The list of moves this FO has made is incredible. You could literally take any random person off the street and they couldn’t have done worse. Acquiring Cruz and the Cruz/Ryan deal were very good ones, but I’m not sure I see another quality move they’ve made. I loved the Lopez/Arraez trade at the time it happened. I don’t think there’s a reasonable person that wouldn’t undo that if given the chance. Lopez has proved to be decent. Not great. Meanwhile, Arraez is hitting .400 and we can’t score a run. I wasn’t a huge fan of Lopez/Cano swap at the time. But, holy cow has that turned out to be a godawful move. Baltimore clearly knew something was up with Lopez (or, anyone that’s really studied his long term track record) and they absolutely fleeced Falvine. The Mahle trade is an absolute disaster. The Rogers/Paddack deal hasn’t really been anything detrimental. But, they got no value out of what was a slightly valuable asset at the time Rogers. We’ve called for them to be aggressive, and they have been. I’ll give them a sliver of credit for that. But, who the heck is the finally sign off on these player evaluations? I’ve like some of these moves on the surface, as have many of us, but we’re not being paid 6 figures to get these evaluations right. Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt on the trades. But, their roster management has also been absolutely abysmal. IL management is awful. They haven’t found a way to keep guys healthy. They’ve done things like sending Ober, who has turned out to be our best pitcher, to AAA to throw games away for a guy like Maeda who clearly didn’t have it. Is there a FO doing a worse job with the resources they have in the MLB right now? We used to be able to make the excuse of payroll constraints with the Ryan regime….that’s not there anymore (to a certain extent). All that venting on the FO aside - that Detroit series was the most disappointing series I recall (other than the playoffs) in a long, long time. It’s a wonder that anybody is showing up the ballpark to watch this.

You do realize that Buxton has incurred significant IL time in his career for things that didn’t happen while playing CF, right? HBP, sliding into bases, pulling muscles running to first. He crashed into a wall a couple of times and got a concussion diving for a ball. He just sat out a couple of weeks for a HBP. He’s a pretty good hitter. He’s not an elite one. We’re not talking about Mike Trout, here. But, he might be the best defensive CF if all time. You’re comparing that to a 42 year old Nelson Cruz and Paul Molitor who would’ve been absolute butchers in the field? What makes you think this plan is working so far? Have you seen his numbers? How many games has he missed this year? How does his projected WAR type numbers compare to years when he was 5, 6, 7 WAR seasons as a CFer. Why would you assume he’s going to be there for the playoffs this year? What makes you think this team will even be in the playoffs this year? After all these years, what makes you think Favline and Baldelli’s ideas are golden and the best course? Hes far more valuable when he’s playing defense. There is no precedent set that says otherwise. None. That’s where he should be. 20 extra games per year as a DH K’ing 40% of the time and OPSing league average does not increase his value. He’s performed better offensively in the past when playing in the field as well. This experiment is what’s flippant. It’s absurd. He’s a generational defensive talent that’s being wasted because of some irrational fear (the injuries are still there). Lastly, as you said, which was spot on - it’s restricting the roster to a point where it’s damaging the team. It’s a double whammy. It’s suppressing his value and taking another potential dangerous bat out of the lineup. Bottom line. It is not making the team better. It is not getting them closer to a championship in any way. It’s making the team worse.

The reality that it’s because of the roughly $4M remaining of his $8M salary in the last year of his deal is even more ridiculous. I mean, he does bring some value defensively. So he’s not totally useless. But it’s pretty clear after the last 3 years that the guy just isn’t going to come around at the plate.

Not sure how reliable these numbers are. The eye test tells me Correa and Taylor are better than that. If they are reliable, my takeaway is to get Buxton back in CF. Seeing those numbers in left field (assuming it’s reliable) makes me realize how silly it is that we’re playing Larnach there so often at the expense of one of the best defensive outfielders in the game (Gallo). Add it to the list of head scratching moves by this club. There seems to be value in various guys that is wasted.

These things work themselves out with injuries. Especially on this club where nobody can stay healthy. But, if he gets things going, find a way to get him in the lineup. Royce isn’t playing everyday at third (they’ve been giving him days off or DH here or there). There some ABs to be had at 1B/DH. Clearly the Buxton DH experiment didn’t keep him healthy, so might at well get him out in centerfield occasionally. As said above, Buxton’s value is in CF. They need to stop screwing around with Kepler. They are obsessed with milking a penance of value out of him that they’re harming the team. Guys like Castro and Solano have had their moments. But, they’re not a long term answer. It makes no sense to cling to guys like that. We pulled them out of the bargain bin. If Miranda returns to form, he’s a better player than Solano. We have 4 of the best defensive outfielders in the league on the roster (Kepler in RF, Gallo anywhere, Buxton and Taylor in CF). We don’t need to be playing Castro in the OF. This shouldn’t be a problem. We have multiple guys that can give up ABs or just be let go. I don’t know where this narrative came from that we have this immovable logjam of talent. It’s just not there.

Correa might finally be coming around. He’s stacking up the extra base hits over the past week. The importance of that can’t be overstated. It’s almost like this team has been given a second chance at life being in such a bad division. Get Buxton healthy and back in the lineup. Get Wallner another shot and find a way to keep Julien up here. Quit giving Pagan and Lopez innings that have even a modicum of leverage. Quit screwing around, get your best players and pitchers on the field, and stop throwing games by getting cute with all this lineup and bullpen shenanigans. They need to find a way to use this run of success as a springboard to separate from the rest of the division.