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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    The talk on Gardenhire reminds me of the guy who always whined about his wife. "If it is so bad, why not get a new one?" he was asked. He responded with "How do I know it is going to be any different?" Gardenhire has had not the greatest of players to work with. When he has had good players, he has done well. So is the current record due to Gardenhire or the players.
  2. The Wise One
    Part of the abyss is under Ryan. The 2006 and 2007 drafts did not provide much major leauge talent. The scouting director that made those decisions is gone. Have no clue if the scouts are still part of the system. What did Ryan inherit when he took over aftr the 2011 season? A team with virtually no starting rotation, Joe Mauer, Denard Span,Ben Revere and the ghost of Justin Morneau. A AAA team that had as their best to prospects Cole DeVries and Liam Hendricks. A AA team that had Dozier, Parmelee, Benson and Solarte. In other words, not much help on the way either. If you think that the high minors are getting more talented, then Ryan's build from within is working.
  3. The Wise One
    His leash is as long as Epstien's in Chicago, or when the current wave of prospects quit being that w/o being major league players.
  4. The Wise One
    The free agent class is like a Cadilac Escalade. Bright and shiny, and they cost a lot of money. The sad reality sets in after the newness wear off that you would get the same thing for less money from Chevy
  5. The Wise One
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2015/ Who is worth 60 million and 4 years on the list, in your humble opinion as a position player is worth that kind of money?
  6. The Wise One
    So now I know why people don't use 10 game sample sizes to try to say how good or bad a player is relative to another player. Fuld has a good stretch going. Almost any mlb player is capable of that.
  7. The Wise One
    The GM of a winning team generally has a decent talent evaluator or two. Any expiring contract player on the Twins right now would likely only bring back a low level prospect. Closer to career average production from Morales might bring a better prospect. Those that think Suzuki will bring back a good prospect need to look and see that he was traded twice for middling prospects. The relievers are all better than a lot of what are in other bullpens. Still, the supply of 7th inning and mop up relievers is large, hence the cost would be low None of the Twins in the last year of a contract say 8th inning reliever in a pennant chase
  8. The Wise One
    Speaking of derailed threads, see Worley's mechanics threads. The problem is that the derailment steered it away from yet another Anderson complaint session into something interesting.
  9. The Wise One
    It pains me to type this. The stringers at fangraphs have Parmelee as a better right fielder than Hunter this year. Hunter's power numbers are going down as well. Hunter is getting 14 million this year. With his career earnings and pride, I doubt he would be playing for less than 10m. I don't think he would come cheaply to a team that might be losing. It is rare that an above average free agent signs a one year contract. One year contracts for outfielders that switched teams the last 3 years looks like dumpster diving with Morse coming out as the only rose. Nelson Cruz is a special category that I don't think will happen again. Many of these players as a 4th outfielder option might be preferential to what the Twins have now. I wouldn't argue that one. The question is regarding looking for the starters for next year. In looking for someone to hold down an outfield position for a year I just don't think you will find much.
  10. The Wise One
    Norichika Aoki Emilio Bonifacio Melky Cabrera Nelson Cruz Michael Cuddyer Rajai Davis Chris Denorfia Jeff Francoeur Jonny Gomes Franklin Gutierrez Tony Gwynn Jr. Scott Hairston Torii Hunter Raul Ibanez Reed Johnson Darnell McDonald Mike Morse Colby Rasmus Nate Schierholtz Grady Sizemore Seth Smith Alfonso Soriano Ichiro Suzuki Ryan Sweeney Vernon Wells Josh Willingham Chris Young Delmon Young That is the list of FA outfielders coming up this winter. More if options are not exercised. If they were a good player their options are generally picked up. I think I wouldd rather have an outfield of Santana and the rest of the shortstops and sign Hardy.
  11. The Wise One
    Othr than lester, Shields and Scherzer, is there anyone without an option worth 15m/yr that is going to be a free agent?
  12. The Wise One
    Leading the league in hitting for shortstops may not mean very much as there could be a league full of light hitting shortstops. Now if you said he was top 15 in the league for these stats, you would have a much stronger argument for promotion based on hitting alone. .
  13. The Wise One
    1. Hawkins, Choate hall of famers? 2 Pevey and Dempster a combined WAR of 0.4 in 2013? Recheck your stats. About a 3.7 or so FWAR combined Relative regression estimates are worthless, A player will regress, but nor necessarily between 31 and 35. Not at the same rate. There are so many other factors that come into play. Using age as anything other than a red flag to look hard at the player is shortsighted. The whole purpose of scouting and statistics is to ferret out the good player. Throw it away when they turn 30, they are going to regress. Doesn't make sense. Long term plans. Not every player on a roster is a long term plan. Most are not. Maybe the 84 Twins, but they even had Downtown Derrel Brown on the roster as well as only 4 quality pitchers,
  14. The Wise One
    Did you finally figutre out therer are other things that go on with a pitcher besides age that can change his velocity? By your reply you didn't connect the dots because everything happens because of age. How do you know there isn't something going on in his arm now that is a developing injury? I bet you can diagnose without seeing it . The diagnosis is old age.l There are more factors that come into play for an aging curve for an athlete. It is still up to gentics, injuries, training to determine how a player declines. It doesn't happen because they turn 30.
  15. The Wise One
    Sigh. His current fastball on average is faster than what was clocked in 2009, 2010 and 2011. In terms of what makes Burton effective as a reliever do you really think it was a blazing 91-92 mph fastball? A fastball that averages 91 versus 91.5 versus 91.9 (as Burton effectiveness was not in dispute) really makes a difference
  16. The Wise One
    In regards to my age, stick to facts you know and don't show off your ability to have incorrect analytical skills. How much of pitching is mental? It might be a real interesting debate at what point and factors decrease the ability to think. The point is having talent enough to pitch is not age dependent. Yep, you go downhill after 19. It doesn't mean that you can't pitch. The Twins staff is not lousy because they are over 30, they were what they are before that age. The numbers are Burton this year are not good. Duh. Same speed of pitches, nobody has said the movement is off. His physical skill did not deteriorate. Something wasn't right. The guess is age related. There is no proof. Just assumptions based on opinion, much like you started off your post with.
  17. The Wise One
    There is great variability within each individual to when age factors in. Perkins is 31. Is he going to be a factor as a pitcher in 2020? Maybe, maybe not. Being over 30 didn't stop Rivera. LaTroy Hawkins has been effective as a reliever into his 40s. The Cardinals did not care that Choate is older than dirt the last two years. Not considering the closer, bullpens have turnover. The age isn't important. What they can do for that year is the determining factor. Roeneke was 30 last year. Brunett was much younger. If age was the the vital factor they should have kept Brunett. They went with talent. In regards to having a collection of old pitchers and winning, Boston won with Breslow, Urehara, Peavey, Dempster, Lackey, Thorton, Aceves and Hanrahan all being over 30 on their staff last year. 5 of them were on the World Series roster.
  18. The Wise One
    Correlation to age is what it is. Because someone is a certain age does not give them talent. Focusing on age means nothing. FFocus on the talent that the person has.
  19. The Wise One
    Kevin Bacon would have had makeup artists. I have yet to see or hear of a ball player in the heat of the Dominican Republic wear makeup. I have read plenty of posts from overactive imaginations. Enough people think highly of Bacon's skill to pay him a lot of money (net worth 50 million without word of him havin the spending habits of Bryant McKinney <sic?>), have him play in some 60+ films, play himself in tv shows, and have a hot wife for 20 years. Tabata might be a better actor than ball player but that talent is as undiscovered as his ability to be a good mlb hitter.
  20. The Wise One
    Plan A Pefrey Plan B Deduno Plan C Pino Plan D? Gibson and Hughes then sing the blues?
  21. The Wise One
    By accummulated WAR the Boston Old Farts are the best pitching team in the AL. Using a player's age and not performance as the determinant of what to with a player is poor. On 1-2 year contracts age should be insignificant. Unless you can't think of any other reason to diss on a player.
  22. The Wise One
    Try having a sense of humour if possible. God ,I thought I made a prepousterous enough statment that it couldn't be missed for the inent.
  23. The Wise One
    Saint Beane is not perfect. Look at how well Suzuki is playing. Beane let him go for nothing. That is mot his MO.
  24. The Wise One
    Mike Fast, Bill James, Dan Turkrenkoff never were scouts, never played in the minors. People seem to think highly of their opinions. Why? Because they all learned.
  25. The Wise One
    He was signed when he was 16. One or two years off maybe he could pull it off. More than that I would doubt that.
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