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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    I think it might take a better contract. I think Arcia has put up better minor league numbers than Singleton. As he has learned to mlb parks and hitters, Arcia's defense has risen to above average bu UZR 150. His defense might not be as bad as some have said although it relies on a defensive metric and a small sample size to prove.
  2. The Wise One
    There are 96 pitchers right now listed as having pitched enough qualified innings. Correia 67 in WAR Nolasco 75, Correia 69 in FIP, Nolasco 77 Correia 88 in xfip, Nolasco 74. For those who use BABIP as a justification as your pitcher being unlucky, There are only 2 pitchers starting in MLB ball with a worse BABIP. Strasburg and Zimmerman of the Nationals. Nolasco is only slightly less unlucky than Correia. After the already mentioned pitchers there is Cliff Lee then Nolasco. Such elite company to be unlucky to be in. Gardenhire has 2 free agent pitchers pitching poorly, though not so poorly as to be labeled the worst starter in mlb as some here on the board have stated. He can't go negative on one as someone will bring up the other. In terms of trade value. Correia is not pitching that much differently than his career numbers.
  3. The Wise One
    Achter probably should be up. Pressly last year was a below average pitcher used in low leverage situations. There would be a reason for that. Tonkin had a shot this year. What did he do that would say "I'm ready". Low strikeouts, high ERA are not what keeps you in the big leagues. You can't have both as Tonkin did. Talent will rise up through the system. Keep your eyes open and you might see some of the promotions that happen.
  4. The Wise One
    .299 for 2010 .298 for 2009 .301 for 2008 .301 for 2007 .302 for 2006
  5. The Wise One
    There is a premise as a team the poor defense was the cause of BABIP going up. As a staff BABIP this year is no worse than last year at this point. Can't blame the current defense. Can't blame Gardenhire.
  6. The Wise One
    The point I was also trying to make that you are sort of hitting on. There are 5 types of players in AA. Three of the types are on their way up through the system. Those that you are fairly sure they are going to be in AAA, those that might get there, and those that you go damn, I thought they were better players. The 4th group can be in one of the first 3 but called lost significant time to injury. The 5 th group is organizational filler. The latter three groups would drive the average age up. When you look at your prospect does it really matter to compare him to anything but the first group in age and stastics? The issues is development for the major leaugue, so the relative factors people like to use to me are worthless. If you compare what your prospect has done and compare it to the work that players who made it to the majors as a success might be more useful. Comparing the player on what his stats are against the players you think will make the majors could be useful. Can't see where it does any good to compare the player to filler and failures. If you say small sample sizes for what I would want to look at are a problem then tell me a number that one would need. I have never seen where an author looked at reliabity and margain of error on their statistics.
  7. The Wise One
    Since others seem like they can not answer the question and you bring up tha age thing relative to the other players, I ask you the same question. What does physical age have do do with talent? You have the talent or you do not. How does age as a variable contribute to the person's talent that it matters that they are younger than the other players.
  8. The Wise One
    What is a small sample size. In articles I do not recall seeing margin of error statistics. If numbers for relief pitchers at the end of a season are valid as predictive I would think many starters would have pitched a large enough sample of batters faced to have valid predicive numbers. fip et al does not differentiate between starters and relievers.
  9. The Wise One
    Sorry, Government computers runs a very early version of IE which TD doesn't like when I edit.So here goes a 2 post Somebody being younger than the average age of those competing at the same level is an indication of that player's talent when in the higher levels of minor league baseball. The player got to that level with talent. Age does not play a factor in what that player does. When a college senior is drafted in the late rounds it was because of his talent. He starts in the GCL league or rookie leauge because of talent not age. They get promoted through developing their talent. That in the lowest levels they are older than average player isn't an issue. Talent and upside are the key.
  10. The Wise One
    Does above average in the Eastern Leauge get you to the majors? In the New York times a few years ago there was something about the average length of a position player being close to six years. That is about 2 position players a year per team make it to the majors. If it is your bat that is getting you there, above average doesnt cut it.
  11. The Wise One
    As you are the one saying saying Baseball America and every other living breathing anaylist I shouldn't be wrong you have talked to or read something from every source. So, please feel free to elaborate how physical age acts as either an enhancer or detracts from talent a player has at the high minor leauge level. What factor in a player's development is age related?
  12. The Wise One
    Rosario's age is pointless in a descusion of what kind of player he can be. Age only becomes an issue when figuring out the decline phase. That a player is younger than league aveerage means the player has some talent. So he can hit above average for a AA player playing 2B for 300+ AB. That means squat. Doess an OPS of .742 in AA say jump 2 levels he is way too talented for this league to you? That is what you advocate. Attack on analytic flaws? ________________________
  13. The Wise One
    Rosario was an average hitter in his half season at New Britain. I would be nore than amused at how you could spin it any other way. If he were to near major league ready after a short stint in the minors he would have to show he can do a lot more than he has at that level. I would really hope that he can do that. Putting a player of potential in a situation to most likely result in failure is not the best thing to do. See the mlb career of Aaron Hicks. Twins Fan From Afar can more accurately portay the needs of the Rock Cats, but I would think it would be easier to pick up what he needs to do defensively easier in the outfield than the timing at 2b.
  14. The Wise One
    Is Rosario the second coming of Mike Trout? Seriously. A September call up if he is lights out in New Britain. It would have to be a lot better than his 2013 in New Britain.
  15. The Wise One
    Mastroianni is a career .220 hitter in the majors with a downward trend. Sure he is sort of hitting in the minors. So did Parmelee and Coabello. Far better than Mastroianni. AAA success is no indication of major league talent after a poor stint in the majors. There is no reason to think the outcome with Hicks will be any different whatever league he plays in. Hicks has a better woba than Presley. Hicks has a better OBP by far. than Presley. I would think you would be more concerned with your speed players getting on base than hitting for power. Pick your statistic to compare the 2 players by. They are both mediocre so far.
  16. The Wise One
    You are having fond memories of Mastro before his injuries. If they had sent Hicks down and Presly hit like he has forr Houston there would be complaintss of ineptness on the Twins part for sending down Hicks
  17. The Wise One
    Perhaps in large part the starting pitching staff has a high ERA becuase they have an extremely high BABIP. The Indians starters have a K/9 of 8.8. They also have an ERA of 4.79. Not Twins Territory, but way above league average.
  18. The Wise One
    Not really off topic. The irrony that youu all missed. Castillo was traded for Dustin Martin, a CF/corner OF.
  19. The Wise One
    When those 2 were here, what players of note did the Twins trade away during the season?
  20. The Wise One
    Completely different situation.
  21. The Wise One
    The same people who cannot quite figure out the 5th outfielder situation perhaps determined that Santana is not the SS of the future, but could be a good UT
  22. The Wise One
    In the end, between Sizemore, Presley, Fuld, Mastro, and Bonifacio you will find what comes out is a reserve outfielder. A few streaks of good hitting, a longer stretch of bad. It would have made it easier if any of them stuck with the Twins for the whole season, but they are neither going to have an upside, nor play very far above replacement level, if at all above replacement level. By the end of the year perhaps all doubt will be erased about Hicks' potential.
  23. The Wise One
    I think the Phillies would take back May for Revere in a heartbeat. Even if Vanimal were in AAA for the Twins, they might take him straight up for Revere. They might even trade Revere straight up for Hicks. I don't think you can fault the Twins for trading Revere. Span for Meyer. Bad idea short term, might be a great idea long term. It will be better to have pitching in a year rather than an impeding free agent. Yes the Twins outfield is kind of messy. Not everything works out. I supose you can fault them for not having above average players in all positions. In the end Ryan sacrificed now for later, guessed wrong on developing players,. At least he did not stand pat.
  24. The Wise One
    There is no need to do either move. Suzuki's value for a contract is not going to go up dramaticallly with a career yeaar. His trade value is not going to be great, either. Oakland did not get much from Washington for him, they gave up even less than that to get him back. The only way he has good value is if a contender loses their catchers to season ending injuries or suspension.
  25. The Wise One
    Bickford I think did not sign last year so Toronto gets a pick this year for that one.
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