JD-TWINS

Alcala was in 54 games and threw 58 1/3 innings………the 2-3 inning at a time storyline isn’t real. In the timeframe where he was used more often than an inning at a time, earlier in the season, he had a 1.56 ERA (34 2/3 innings prior to All-star break). He had 3-4 bad outings through the year…….one, he was last guy in the Pen & had to finish, and another was the Texas debacle. He’s a good pitcher that had mostly great success………..but his problems aren’t due to the Manager as all relievers (pitchers/players) stumble sometimes through a season. His mental stamina and command will drive his success going forward.

Agreed. His fastball velocity is fine - his elevation with that pitch and his ability to throw it at the knees is great! His secondary, off-speed stuff & command will elevate his spot in the rotation over time……if he gets to Ober’s level at any point, he’s good enough for me. Ober is a solid #2 on probably 24-25 teams.

Let’s see them stay healthy and perform at a lower level for 6 weeks before burning veteran’s availability to the club.

That’s what people were saying about Mark Fydirich when he couldn’t throw any more for Tigers. Upside v. availability is the issue.

Agreed on SWR fitting in at #4 or #5 ……still in age 24 season and proven at MLB level. Lee, on the other hand, may drift down into the #5-#6 range for me…….not sure how injured he was after having time off for back issue? He was OK in the field with flashes of. rey good - at the plate he looked like a guy just trying to lay the bat on the ball, far too often. Sooo many weak ground balls to second base - often tough to watch. From what I saw of Brooks and what I read about Keaschall, the latter may be playing 2B by July 1.

Preach!! ……to me it’s disrespectful to assume Matthews is somehow more valuable after SWR proved his value in ‘24. Matthews is a year older and at least a year behind SWR’s development…...not his fault, but he was in A ball last May………. SWR needs an out pitch - personally, I think it’s his slider. He needs to find another pitch or just better command to set up his slider. His ERA (in a protected role) was very solid outside 3 rough starts. I think he can get to 30-31 starts and 165 innings in ‘25. If he keeps the ERA at 4.00 range or better, he’s a solid a developing 4 or 5 starter……that’s all he’s needed to do.

One of your opening statements was that Sands was probably the 2nd most effective reliever in ‘24. His fastball velocity was up in ‘24 in the role he was used in regularly. With these things being true, there doesn’t seem to be any logical reason to move him from a role where he is thriving. “Most innings out of PEN in ‘24….”……. Same comments the past 3-4 months regarding Jax. Why? The Team has 5 starters in place coming out of ‘24……….in addition, Paddack & Varland are very solid options as long guys - bridge guys - 5/6 games as spot starters as needed through the year, with Paddack up first in those opportunities. Headrick is also a viable 1.2 - 2.0 inning guy. These 3 mixed with Stewart & Topa additions to Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran infers a very solid PEN. Festa - SWR - Ryan - Ober - Lopez ……..Morris - Raya - Matthews - Lewis - Culpepper……,I realize 2-3 pitchers may get traded to try and help with a real Catcher or someone to play 1B that can hit. I don’t see any need to compromise the PEN to experiment in trying to find another starter!

My assumption on Grichuk being on the couch is that the market wants to pay him $5-$8M & his agent wants him to sign for $11-$14M. He’ll get signed w/o a problem. 140 OPS+ is pretty attractive, even if it’s a peak season for him. Santana hit 23 HR’s and won a Gold Glove…..so there’s that upside that probably drove his $12M. Guardians don’t overpay too often!

Grichuk hit .291 in ‘24…….he also had a 140 OPS+ ………2.2 WAR……..if Santana got $12M as a FA, I can’t imagine getting Grichuk for less than $10M - right? No Bader please!!

Guys that stick with the Twins don’t or wouldn’t get hurt?

Linus - anyone out there…….what will the Twins do to replace W. Castro in 2026? He’s not getting extended. Who will/how will they cover his innings? Is the answer wildly different than what they might do to replace him in ‘25, if traded?

Kiersey - Martin - Lee should be able to cover the innings Castro would give over a season. Assuming either Julien/Keaschall/Martin can play 2B (if Lewis doesn’t move over) ……if Lewis is at 2B, Lee/Miranda can cover 3B. Arraez plays 1B most of the time (70%). Lee is SS depth as of today (w/o Castro)……….Willi is gone in ‘26 for sure so that security of versatility is going away - deal with it now!

Padres signed Elias Diaz as a FA Catcher……don’t need Vazquez any longer. Larnach has more value, IMO, than Castro ….too much to give up for a team that needs offense. Castro (LF & IF depth) - Matthews - R. Henriquez ……. they get 2 controllable arms on an aging staff. They save $5.5M and gain a substitute starter and 2 other value players. To me, Preller seems to be too much of a win now & figure out next year, next year kind of guy to move high caliber pitchers - 1 year remaining for Cease & King - maybe searching for medium term viability as well?

Darvish & Musgrave are locked into San Diego for years - King & Cease are both UFA after ‘25. King has a really good track record…. arguably better than Cease! King is at $8M plus & Cease is at $13M plus in ‘25. I think either can be argued to be superior to the other. SD is more motivated to move the $13M, IMO. Z. Matthews - W. Castro - R. Henriquez for Cease. SD gets a very reasonable PEN option and a fringe MLB ready starter and a solid LF that can bring IF depth. They get 3 players and save $5M at a minimum. Twins trade Paddack - Tonkin - Gonzalez - Julien for Luis Arraez…….SD gets a couple more real MLB arms and shed another $6.5M.

$30M is a piece from $17.2M - I like the aggression though!

‘25 is definitely his last shot in Minnesota. I don’t ever see him playing SS. I know he hurt his arm 3 years ago - unless he’s still hurt, he was once a shortstop so he therefore has an adequate arm for an OFer. He’s not really “fast” he’s just not Donovan Solano slow - average baserunner is probably fair. Nobody expects the last guy on the bench to be really good at anything……if he can manage LF - a little 2B - a little CF ….,,,he’s a valuable guy to roster………..particularly if Castro gets traded!! He needs to turn into one of the “contact guys” - “situational hitter”…..if he can execute details he’ll probably be part of the 13 rostered guys most of the year.

His instincts as an outfielder suck - he’s athletic & if he played SS at one point his arm is fine. He doesn’t have great OF instincts as he showed both in LF & CF in ‘24. Is athletic enough to have made 4-5 spectacular plays but can look rough on plays just above routine.

They got 28 starts from SWR as a 23 year old…….no doubt, if he stays healthy, that SWR makes the trade just fine from the Twin’s perspective.

Can’t disagree……..My opinion is that it probably has more to do with not being a standout at any position. Managers were trying to find him “a spot.” He’s “adequate enough” to get playing time but doesn’t shine anywhere on defense and at MLB level, is just barely adequate at the plate.

IF Castro is still around, he seems to be the 2nd or 3rd option depending upon Kiersey. Martin is behind Castro as a distant option in CF. At some point, instincts come into play, it’s not all just athleticism in CF.

The best Stat Line in comparing these guys is Berrios will be 31 & SWR will be 24 this season!! …….if Twins can get another couple starts and 30-40 more innings ……he’s a nice piece of the rotation going forward. Maybe a perpetual #4-#5 guy, but effective.

SWR??

So, I get you’re not a Baldelli fan - fine. Making excuses (blaming Baldelli) for Julien’s fiasco of a season is ridiculous though, IMO. The guy had 7 HR by April 27th and he managed 1 more the rest of the year. He lead the majors in strikeouts looking - the next highest backward K total came from a guy with 100 more AB’s. Eddie needs to be seeing a Sports Psychologist about 4 days per week. I’ve never seen a hitter look so mentally locked up at the plate in 55 years of watching baseball. Martin - the organization got him and tried to get him to drive the ball. They tried to get his power stats elevated. Didn’t fit him at all. Through ‘24 he looks overmatched v. power pitchers and I think that’s just his make up as an athlete. This look is 2 years after they let him try to revert back to his natural approach. He’s just a limited MLB hitting talent. To pick out the Manager as the reason he hasn’t been able to be very effective (with consistency) doesn’t seem realistic to me. Baldelli played full seasons in the Show starting at age 21…….he was out with injury his entire 3rd season at age 23. The other 3 seasons, age 21, 22, & 24…….he hit .289 - .280 - .302 and his WAR totals were 2.9 - 3.0 - 3.2 respectively. To continually talk about how he is ignorant on how to approach hitting as a MLB player just seems misguided…….over those first 3 seasons he hit 43HR & had 83 doubles ……he struck out 286 times…. not exactly some power crazed approach at the plate.

So, many thoughts here and not many are very upbeat. I like our talent in the PEN ……our consistent health outlook is sketchy! Certainly reason for skepticism. My PEN (blended as is possible through the year): Paddack - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Henriquez - Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Blewett - Tonkin - Jax - Duran ………..12 possibilities (maybe 1 or 2 are traded?) ……a potentially effective group!