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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Lots of astute comments here, and I certainly have doubts that the Twins are doing no favors to Alcala as opined. As others have said, There can be a number of reasons we're reading the radar gun on 33 pitches and seeing a slight decrease in velo. Maybe they asked him to back off and focus on regaining command? Maybe it's part of a mutli-inning useage plan and they asked him to focus on refining his other critically important pitches. We just don't know, and On April 13th, it's premature to speculate.
  2. bird
    An obscure observation: In AA, Steven Cruz closed out the game for Arkansas. He, along with Evan Sisk, were sent to KC in exchange for Michael A. Taylor in that lopsided trade favoring KC. Kidding.
  3. bird
    Yeah, I agree that it's inexplicable, but I also think it's mostly "bad luck" rather than some sort of reflection on the training and medical staff. That said, it's worrisome to have a number of essential players with medical and injury histories.
  4. bird
    I'd eventually add Henriquez and Canterino to the discussion, and frankly, I have greater confidence that others, such as Dobnak, Megill, and even Ortega stand better odds than Balazovic to be future contributors (hope to be wrong). And with Ober, Varland, SWR, eventually Paddack, and maybe even Headrick as truly viable injury and/or poor performance replacements, I'd love it if there were so many strong showings among those mentioned above that they could fetch a legit prospect and a lottery ticket or two by moving guys like Maeda, Pagan, maybe even one more at the deadline.
  5. bird
    And I think we WILL see at least Ober and a couple more get long runs this year. We can pretty much count on one or two starters going down for most or a large part of the season. Plus, a couple more will miss a few starts each. The likely replacements stand a good chance of being serviceable, which would be a very nice change.
  6. bird
    Yeah, I don't think the front office sat around a conference table and said, "hey, let's start a youth movement." They've simply built up some numbers, slowly and hardly impressively. I think they're more likely a third place team than a division winner, but that said, there's certainly room for hope, and lots of it. Right now, MLB has them #15 in their power rankings. (Cleveland is #11). They're also roughly #15 in the prospect rankings. BUT... Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Gallo, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Jeffers, and even Miranda. These are all players whose production could very easily be better than in 2022, although of course not all will do so. Even if half or so do better, I'd place the odds pretty high that they're a top 10 (barely) in the power rankings at year end. Same with the minors, based on two things: 1) They have a large group very close to ready, and free from injury (knock on wood). A half season of these players showing good numbers does a lot; and 2) It seems to be that, especially among a bunch of international prospects, not just ERod, we'll see a few breakouts, plus that #5 pick. And if we can snag a Jose Salas as a secondary piece for Arraez, we can probably land at least a couple real prospects if the FO can find takers for the likes of Kepler, Polanco, and Gallo if a few of Larnach, Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Lewis, and maybe even Lee prove to be upgrades. Now, THAT would be a youth movement.
  7. bird
    Matt, you've produced a solid analysis for sure. While we can't know WHICH players succumb to injury or continue to under-perform against expectations, we know two things: first, that they simply can't overcome the inevitable injuries to the 26-man roster, and secondly, they simply do not have any minor league reinforcements that are good or MLB ready if they are good.
  8. bird
    Any prognosticator who thinks the winner of the division does so with 83 wins is less than credible IMO. While I agree that the Guardians are less likely to show improvement over last year's win total, I wouldn't predict a fall-off. First, they're young and have many players with room to grow. Additionally, they have more depth, and more minor league reinforcements at the ready than many think. That includes some real talent at catcher, middle infield, outfield, starters, and relievers in AAA. Injuries may be the deciding factor between the two teams, but from what I can see, the Guardians aren't taking much of a back seat to the Twins when it comes to quality depth, either on the big club or in the upper minors.
  9. bird
    And the relevance of this is...?
  10. bird
    My bet is on Winder or Sands occupying the final spot, and with the idea that they spot start a game or three, avoiding those Aaron Sanchez/Derek Rodriguez starts. The first long-term replacement spot, and there WILL be one, would perhaps go to Ober if he sustains his effectiveness in St. Paul. And i have a hunch that Ronny Henriquez ends up as a bullpen stud as an injury replacement, probably by mid-season. (BTW, without an ounce of expertise, I predict Jovani Moran, Jorge Alcala, and Ronny Henriquez shock us with how good they are). It's good to have quality depth, isn't it?. While we can take Falvine to task for a lot of things, they deserve at least SOME credit for generating some impressive quality depth all around the field.
  11. bird
    Like others, I didn't like the pick, simply because, aesthetically, big lumbering base-clogging whiffers to me are truly unpleasant to watch except for the 30 AB's where the ball goes a mile. In a very mild defense of the pick, however, my sense is the 2020 draft was neither strong nor deep. If two years from now I see that prospects picked in the same vicinity are making it and he's not? Then I'll agree that it was a bad pick and not just one I don't like.
  12. bird
    Very much has the feel of a cheap insurance policy against two things: 1) Injury issues with Polanco, or maybe Kirilloff, AND ALSO possibly Miranda flopping on defense at 3B, with expectations that he can be let go when one of Lewis, Martin, Julien, or Lee hopefully explodes onto the scene. 2) The very nightmarish possibility that none of Lewis, Martin, Lee, or Julien explode onto the scene. My guess is we forget about Mr. Solano before the 4th of July, probably much much earlier.
  13. bird
    Great picks.
  14. bird
    I'm forced to conclude that, despite the impressive improvements, the Twins will place 3rd behind both Cleveland and Chicago. What would vault them over one or both? 1) Start with health up the middle, especially Buxton, but also the catchers, but not excluding Polanco and Correa. While we have replacements, there's a steep falloff. 2) Just as important is production from the corners, defensively and offensively. So Kirilloff, Larnach, Kepler, Miranda, and eventually Lewis at 3B I hope. Gallo does little for me. I'm hopeful regarding the others, especially Larnach and Kirilloff, but including Kepler. 3)Help from the minor leagues will certainly be a wild card. We'll probably need all 5 starters at some point, and perhaps for lots of starts, and this might be a good thing in reality, who knows? My bet is on Josh Winder in particular. We'll need a couple-four relievers too. But at least we HAVE talent in AAA, which is more than CWS can say. Bad news: the Guardians are loaded with fine prospects. 4) Not relevant to this season, but I really like the off-season trades of Luis Arraez that brought us Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio may surprise. And the prospect we got for Gio (Alejandro Hidalgo) is probably a similar talent quality to Jovani Moran, or Ronny Henriquez even.
  15. bird
    I take issue with the idea that Pagan was a polarizing figure. I believe the revulsion was universal.
  16. bird
    Oh, I like this pick. Especially if he's anything like Jackson Chourio (Milwaukee) or Jaison Chourio (Cleveland). Unfortunately they are not Byron's siblings I'm told.
  17. bird
    P2C: Danny De Andrade
  18. bird
    My thoughts precisely. Perhaps the "plan" is to have Lewis, when ready, play all three spots (3B, SS, 2B), with the hope that Polanco has a healthy and productive season and Lee looks ready to go by September. Get a nice prospect haul for Polanco next winter, move Correa to 3B to protect his health, and have the better SS between Lewis and Lee get the nod there while the other slides over to 2B. Miranda becomes the DH and part time 1B when Kirilloff needs an off-day.
  19. bird
    Their MO is to trade top ten prospects for #3 starters? You're going to have to name some of those examples to convince me. The closest singular case? Tyler Mahle, who actually may qualify as a #2 talent, for Spencer Steer, a guy who probably crept onto a couple top 10 Twins prospect lists. So, even if this one particular example pans out to be marginally aligned with your characterization, it hardly justifies the MO label. And I'd personally make that Tyler Mahle trade again in a New York nanosecond. A textbook example of a quality decision waiting for a favorable result. I suppose we could view Sonny Gray/ Chase Petty similarly, but again, Chase Petty as the #27 overall pick in a crappy draft class, is not equivalent to trading any one of our current top ten for some random #3 starter when Sonny Gray id your return..
  20. bird
    Great stuff! Thanks, Hoze. Although I wonder if the report was written by his dad or something. It's high praise.
  21. bird
    Looking back at lists like this are telling. An observation or two that make me more optimistic about Priellipp: If prospect talent was evenly distributed (it's not of course), each team would have their top 4 prospects represented on this Top 120 list, which theoretically would mean that each team's #4 prospect would show up in the list as #'s 101-120. (Seth BTW has Prellipp at #4 for the Twins). Looking at #101-120 on this 2012 list, I see only THREE(!) propsects who never made it to the majors. That said, only 4 of those 17 amassed 10 WAR or more. So, most had unremarkable careers and short careers. In fact, only TWO of them are still playing (Baez and Robbie Grossman). This type of history is why I have optimism about the very top prospects making it, but pessimism that once they do, their chances of amounting to something are quite slim. I make an exception regarding the top 2-3 prospects on a given team, (See Trout and Darvish on this list.) This is why I am in favor of moving prospects like Hajjar or Povich, or even Petty, for a MLB return to fill a need. I mean, guys like Headrick and Festa are fun to dream on, and when an Ober or Winder hits, that's pretty fun. Because it's so very rare!
  22. bird
    This is not a retort, but more an acknowledgment of your point. Sure bets, even in a Top 10 list, aren't sure bets, right? Confession: I'm eternally optimistic. It's my Kryptonite or my super power, depending on one's POV. But my optimism about a continued flow of "regular starters" Is backed up by history. Recent history: Out of Fangraph's top 11 prospects on their Twins list for 2022, 8 of them made the show, and 4 of them are already regular starters: Ryan, Duran, Miranda, and Lewis upon return. The other 4 still have a chance (Winder, SWR, Henriquez, Wallner). As do the other 3 in FG's top 11, Canterino, Martin, and Balazovic. Plus, further down their list, the system produced Varland, Moran, and Sands last year. Who knows with them at this point? But to your point about "sure bets" outside of this year's TD #7-30? My bets are on (in this order) E. Rodriguez, Mercedes, Noah Miller, Raya, and Festa. So, that's not a bad list IMO, and it's missing Lee, Prielipp, and Jose Salas. So yeah, we don't know, as fans, who the sure bets are gonna be, but just because we don't know doesn't change the reality that we're gonna see a decent number of them become major leaguers. Like I said, I'm optimistic.
  23. bird
    Just my hunch: Miranda occupies 3B until Lewis is ready, and then they slot him in at DH/1B. If Polanco gets traded at the deadline and Brooks Lee has not exploded onto the scene, maybe he stays at 3B while Lewis takes 2B. I worry about continued sub-par defense haunting Miranda though.
  24. bird
    Yeah, I like the idea of having him concentrate on becoming a decent left fielder and an adequate fill-in in CF. Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Kirilloff might end up being a very solid infield.
  25. bird
    In my own view of things, I draw these three distinctions in assessing last year: First, they had a really tough year health-wise affecting young players with the big club and valued prospects in the upper minors. Lewis, Kirilloff, Winder, Larnach, Canterino, Sands, Balazovic, Enlow... Second, I think on balance they actually had a very strong development year. They had over a dozen prospects "debut" in MLB. Ryan, Duran, Miranda, Moran, Ober, Varland, Sands, Wallner, SWR, Henriquez, Lewis, and Steer wth Cincy. Plus, really across the system, lots of prospects broke out, perhaps most promising was the DSL. Even after parting with a slug of prospect capital, the system looks to be, at worst, middle of the road, maybe just sneaking into the top half in the rankings. Third, a good number of those players who got a taste of things are in a good position to actually establish themselves in 2023 as viable long-term assets. Yes, many will flail and fail. But a half-dozen or so are pretty likely to become above-replacement types. My bets are on Lewis and Kirillof in particular, but I'm not sleeping on SWR as a rotation stalwart and Canterino and Henriquez as bullpen studs by 2024.
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