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jishfish

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Everything posted by jishfish

  1. jishfish
    Great article and some great names to keep an eye on! Personally, I've been a huge fan of Stovall since his initial HS draft year. I'm hoping it's either him, DeBarge, or Miller that the Twins use to fill their "2nd round semi-positionless college bat" quota this year. I'm very curious how the Twins will handle this draft with their larger than expected bonus pool, but the seeming lack of high-end prep talent. There are only 3-4 prep names I would be really excited about seeing them take at 21 which makes me think they could go college bat early, especially if someone falls from the 15-19 range. But you have to spend those bonus dollars somewhere, which leads me to believe they come out of day one of the draft with at least 1-2 prep players, even if it is at picks 60/69. One demo I am intrigued by is what I would call the Tier 3 prep position players. There's a group of 8 or so players in the 50-115 range that I would be pretty excited to see the Twins grab with either their late day 1 or early day 2 picks. I'm mostly a sucker for the "colder weather athletic prep with late helium" that feels so easy to dream on. I would be curious if any of these guys stand out to you or were close to making your list. Farr, Dickerson, and Dix in particular really catch my eye. Griffen Burkholder (49) Tyler Bell (53) Braylon Payne (61) Dante Nori (71) Sawyer Farr (78) Charlie Bates (85) Luke Dickerson (103) Dmarion Terrell (113) JD Dix (115)
  2. jishfish
    For the same reason you love the prep pitching demographic ("it's impossible to project"), I find it completely maddening. I think it's likely the Twins take at least 1 with one of their first few picks, but this is one demographic that I have absolutely no idea how to start narrowing in on targets. With position players and even college arms, it feels very possible to identify "Twins types", but I read these prep scouting reports and they all sound incredibly similar to me. "Sits 92-94, has touched 98. One projectable breaking pitch, and then a third pitch that needs development". Of the players mentioned, I think I like the sound go Shields and Whitney the most, but I'm probably just going to wait and see who the Twins pick and then get myself excited after that. One player not listed that caught my eye the other day was Drew Rerick out of Fargo ND. He's in the top 150 on a number of boards I've seen and was just very surprised to see a ND kid with such steam. Could be an interesting 3-5 round guy.
  3. jishfish
    I've personally always been a fan of Stovall dating back to his original HS draft year, so I would not be mad at all to see the Twins take him at 60 or 69. I know Keith Law is pretty high on him (I believe #23 in his latest rankings), although I definitely wouldn't take him that high.
  4. jishfish
    Agreed with you on your Jared Thomas point. I would also love to get him at 60, but wouldn't hate him if we could get him under-slot at 21 and then use our savings at 33/60. The athleticism to handle CF is intriguing, along with what sounds like really strong defense at 1B. I'm pretty opposed to going 1B-only profile in the top 100ish picks, but if it's someone who can contribute defensively, possibly at multiple positions, you have my interest.
  5. jishfish
    Finally started digging into this draft class over the last week or so, and really unsure how I feel about things. I think right now my dream scenario at 21 is for one of the college hitters (Cam Smith, Seaver King, James Tibbs or Carson Benge) to fall, although all of those seem pretty unlikely at this point. If none of those four fall, I think Caldwell and Gillen are two players I'd be happy to see them take. Do you think there's any scenario where they cut a deal with a lower-ranked college player at 21 (Jared Thomas and Mike Sirota are two that caught my eye) and then float a prep pitcher/SS down to 33 and/or 60? With 5 picks in the top 100 they have a lot of flexibility, but MIL and AZ are in a similar position, so maybe limits the flexibility there (it's also way too early to have any insight into this, but perhaps an intersting thought exercise over the next month)
  6. jishfish
    Since this board seems to have evolved into a Noah Miller vs. DaAndrade debate, I'll add my two cents re: Miller. I think one aspect that gets greatly overlooked with Noah Miller is that he's a switch-hitter from a cold weather state. He was on the older side for a high-school draftee, but in terms of baseball experience I'd reckon he's behind a lot of others. I'm sure he did the travel circuit as a high-schooler and was still doing something year-round, but it's nowhere near the same as living in FL, CA, TX, etc. Add on top of that being a switch-hitter, and he's going to be a slow burn. I see Brandon Crawford as a 95th+ percentile outcome for Miller. Didn't debut until a little older (24/25) and even then took a few years to settle in. But provided outstanding SS defense right away before eventually popping for a few 100-110+ wRC+ seasons. Maybe a 50th percentile outcome is he's a Nick Ahmed, who never pops offensively but still carves out a 10-year career with the glove alone.
  7. jishfish
    Joe Doyle knows that Seattle system better than anyone, and I love his analysis, so if he says there could be something there that's good enough for me to be excited.
  8. jishfish
    An under-the-radar trade that I would love to see the Twins make is plucking Connor Joe from the Pirates. He's a right-handed bat who played 50 games at 1B and 90 games in corner outfield and was a positive OOA according to Baseball Savant. He's more of a platoon bat with a 124 wRC+ against lefties last year, but at least holds his own against righties as well (95 wRC+). He's a career 11% BB guy and only strikes out at a 22% clip. He's going to be 32 this year so I can't imagine he's part of the Pirates long-term future, and doubt he would cost much in terms of prospect capital. Maybe a AAAA pitcher like Josh Winder or Cole Sands plus a low-level flier? He feels like a perfect benchpiece for this team.
  9. jishfish
    I went through the same exercise and landed on Connor Joe as a possible interesting/cheap name. He's 31 so doubt the Pirates have him in their long-term plans. 50 games at 1B last year plus 80 in the OF corners, while grading out as at least an average defender at both spots, so could also platoon with Wallner in a COF spot. He's not a typical power 1B/COF, but he walks at an above-average rate (11%) and only strikes out around 22% of the time. Wouldn't hate it if the price isn't high, even if it isn't a flashy move.
  10. jishfish
    I'm with you on Miller. It's too late in the season to salvage his overall numbers, but he's hitting .275 in August with an .860 OPS, which is really solid, especially given the reviews on his defense. Not saying he's a top 100 prospect or anything, but always good to remember that prospect development isn't linear. I believe he was pretty young for A+ ball this year, so I wonder if they send him back to start next year, and if he proves this finish wasn't a fluke, pull him up to Wichita after 6-8 weeks? The jump from A+ to AA is pretty big, so I don't think it would be terrible to give the kid a little more time at A+ where he would still be young for the level.
  11. jishfish
    I think this is a very well-reasoned take, and roughly where I fall as well. I get worried when I start seeing comments in here about Mickey Mantle comparisons or seeing him in AAA next year (maybe those are sarcastic and I missed the joke). But that's just setting yourself up for disappointment. I would love to see a strong season from Walker split between A and A+ next year. Anything beyond that would just be a bonus.
  12. jishfish
    I don't think there's any chance they would ever skip him over Low-A, but I would love to see him get at least a week or two in Low-A before the year ends. Maybe a call-up for their last 2-3 series of the year? I know it takes an incredibly special talent to follow the Jackson Holliday path and reach AA by the end of your first full season, but I think Jenkins is as good of candidate as anybody. With that being said, I'm certainly not setting that as the expectation! Feels like that would be only setting ourselves and Walker up for disappointment.
  13. jishfish
    Or he could move to 3rd Base after 2-3 years like he was planning to do with the Mets. If Correa starts to wear down or lose lateral mobility, move him to 3B and let Lewis or Lee play SS. If he continues to play an above average SS, then you let Lewis/Lee play 2B/3B and essentially have a three SS infield. Champagne problems. I promise that having too many guys who can play an above average SS is not an issue.
  14. jishfish
    Agreed with @chpettit19 here. Lewis was coming off his second ACL surgery, was already questionable to stick at SS before that, and has only been available for 20% of the games this year. At the time, Brooks Lee had played a total of 31 minor league games, with only 2 of them above A+. You can easily argue both prospects best/long term positions are not at SS. We would have absolutely crushed this front office if we found out they had the opportunity to sign Correa to the deal they did and passed on it. No one is going to argue that it hasn't been a disappointing year for Correa, but you absolutely bet on the proven elite/borderline HOF talent when you can and figure out the prospect pieces later. End of Story.
  15. jishfish
    I think this view may show it even better. Congrats to Dansby Swanson on being the only player to immediately be be worth his contract!
  16. jishfish
    I find it interesting that of the shortstops to sign major contracts in the last two years, almost all of them struggled the following year. I wonder if we're underestimating: a.) how much of a wrench being a major FA throws into their offseason routine b.) how much the added pressure of signing a $150M+ deal affects a player It's not like these guys just forgot how to play ball as soon as they put pen to paper. I agree that the turnaround likely isn't going to happen for Correa this year. But I'm pretty confident a "normal" offseason will lead to a bounce-back next year. It certainly has for Semien and Seager in Texas, and I'm confident the same will be true for Correa/Turner/Bogarts as well.
  17. jishfish
    I guarantee if we trade away either Gray or Maeda, at least one of our current rotation members will be injured by the end of this STL series. I don't make the rules, but I've been a MN sports fan for way too long to know that that's just how it will happen. Get another RP, maybe get a RHH bat and just ride this out with the rotation as it is. Give Sonny the QO at the end of the year and he either comes back or we get a comp. pick. I really think trading out of the one area of our team that's actually been good this year is such a galaxy brain move with so much potential to backfire.
  18. jishfish
    Here's a perfect 3-team trade that I have no idea if any of the 3 teams would accept, but I threw it together in 30 seconds and is something that would get me excited as a Twins fan. No idea how you make the position player side of the roster work (maybe dump Solano/MAT?). Depends on when Royce/AK are coming back healthy. Probably don't want to bank on either at this point. For the Twins specifically: Giving --> Larnach, Miranda, Varland Getting --> Goldy, Bader, Wandy Anyways, feel free to rip it apart!
  19. jishfish
    If anyone wants a good listen, the Talkin' Yanks episode from last night captured my frustrations with this Twins team nearly perfectly. The inconsistency in decision making, general lack of process, and unwillingness to put your best possible team out there every day is maddening with this team. They refuse to admit when they've made a mistake, and when they do decide to move on it's about 2 months too late and only when they're backed into a corner. I love the Twins, but I can not stand this team or the product they've put on the field for the last 2+ years. It feels legitimately insulting to fans to basically say "we know better than you" and just continue to run Joey Gallo/Gary Sanchez/Dylan Bundy/etc out there day after day.
  20. jishfish
    For the right player I would have absolutely no problem including Larnach in a deal. I think if he is included though, I would like to see it in a deal that clears up some of the roster issues the Twins have (i.e. Too many LHH Corner OFs). I know a lot of people assume Max will be gone next year, but they've had multiple opportunities to move off of him in the past and haven't, so if I was betting on it right now, I think they'll execute his option for next year. I would really like to see Wallner get some legit run as well, which leaves Larnach as the odd-man out. I have no idea if they have any interest in him, but I think the Cardinals would be my preferred trade partner, trying to get back either O'Neill or Carlson, both of whom can play CF and hit LH pitching. I know it would take Larnach + something, but I think either of those deals put the Twins roster in a much better position, and could be a good "Change of Scenery" trade on both sides.
  21. jishfish
    Just noticed that Kala'i Rosario took over the Midwest League OPS lead after the game yesterday. Unbelievably impressive considering every other player in the Top 20 not named Emmanuel Rodriguez is at least a year older than him (and a lot are 2-4 years older). I hope he starts getting some attention on end of year Top 100 lists from the national sources. Twins are quietly building up some really strong depth in their lower minors in my opinion. Lot of really good development stories.
  22. jishfish
    Everyday I just become more and more thankful Brooks Lee dropped to us last year. What an absolute steal!! Maybe this is optimistic, but I keep coming back to "switch-hitting Justin Turner" as a comp for him. Not necessarily a superstar/perennial MVP candidate, but just a super solid-professional hitter that you can plug into the 3 hole for a decade. .275/.375/.475 (.850 OPS) K%=15% -- BB%=10% 20-25 HRs and 35-40 2Bs Obviously that's a 75th+ percentile outcome and he has to prove he can do it at the big league level, but I look at what Lee is doing this year versus what Turner has done for the past decade, and I think the similarities are pretty clear.
  23. jishfish
    This is my thought as well. I think maybe once Polanco finishes his rehab assignment in a week or so, Lee will be the one to get the call. I would love for Lee to be in contention for an opening-day roster spot next year, especially with the draft pick compensation if he were to light it up and win rookie of the year. I think two months at AAA to end the year would be perfect, especially if we can start getting him some time at 2B/3B. He seems like a guy who might take a month or so to adjust to the MLB level, and as soon as he gets comfortable is just a locked in cog in the lineup. Still can't believe he fell to #8!
  24. jishfish
    I mean there's Andrew Stevensen who's basically doing the same thing at AAA (steals bases, little pop, good defense), albeit a year or two older. Or Gilberto Celestino if you're looking for someone who's actually still a prospect. Or Austin Martin/Royce Lewis if you think either of their best positions is CF. Keirsey is 26 and never played above AA. He's having a really nice year, and I'm not saying he couldn't be a fine 4th OF in a year or two, but that's a player I'm happy to throw in if it's going to get a solid 7th inning reliever or something.
  25. jishfish
    I wonder if Lee won't get promoted once Polanco goes back to the big club. There's definitely logjam at the top of the Twins farm system. I wonder if they won't try to clear that up with a couple 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deals at the deadline by throwing in a Keirsey Jr or someone similar, who just doesn't have a path towards promotion in the system.
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