Physics Guy

It seems a bit early for this, but I think the Twins need to be aggressive early in free agency this year. Jim Pohlad has made it clear that the bank is open if Terry Ryan decides to spend money in free agency this offseason. As John Bonnes recently wrote, the Twins could easily have $25-$30M to spend on payroll this season. Twins Daily - TwinsDaily Video: How Much Pitching Can The Twins Afford I would like to expand upon this and propose what I would like the Twins to do this offseason. I am working under the assumption that Terry Ryan will actually spend money in free agency this offseason. While this is clearly debatable, I will attempt to work within the parameters of spending less than $30M. First off, lets discuss what the Twins have currently signed for the rotation. Samuel Deduno, while finishing the season on the DL, looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Kevin Correia was certainly not a world-beater this season, but I would argue he was worth the contract he signed. I have no problem with him being our #4 or #5 starter. Kyle Gibson struggled in his first stint with the Twins but still holds promise of being a #3 or maybe even a #2. Other pitchers who started this season who could pitch in the rotation, in order of likelihood, are Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Andrew Albers. The Twins should open the 2014 season with the following rotation: #1) FA pitcher TBNL #2) FA pitcher TBNL #3) Deduno #4) Gibson #5) Correia If Deduno is not healthy, Gibson and Correia slide up and Diamond takes the #5 slot. Meyer and May could also be in the discussion, but I would rather see them start in AAA this season. As for the TBNL (to be named later) FA acquisitions, lets start by weeding out the pitchers who Terry Ryan won't sign. Matt Garza - He will most likely bring in the highest per year salary this offseason. Let's get serious here. Do we really think after last season that Ryan is going after the top of the market guy. Masahiro Tananka - While his average yearly salary might be lower than Garza's, there is this little issue of a $40-$60M posting fee. Despite what he has said publicly, I'm not sure Pohlad could stomach that. Ervin Santana - He likely gets a qualifying offer, so I doubt the Twins will want to sacrifice their 2nd rounder in a supposed deep draft. Hiroki Kuroda - At his age, I doubt he would want to sign with a rebuilding team. AJ Burnett - It sounds like he is considering retirement if he can't pitch in Pittsburgh. Tim Lincecum - He continues to regress and I can't see his body holding out much longer for a pitcher who has so much effort in his delivery. He just scares me. So, who should the Twins sign? For the #1 spot in the rotation, I have two options. My top choice would be Dan Haren and the second would be Ubaldo Jimenez. Both should be available for $10-$15M per season. At first glance, Haren had a poor season. He finished 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA. However, his FIP and xFIP were 4.09 and 3.67 and he finished with his highest K% in three years. His numbers were horrible in June, but he had an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.017 after the All-Star break. I would like to see them sign him for three years at $39-45M. While Jimenez continues to walk batters at a scary rate, he clearly figured something out this season. Like Haren, Jimenez would give us a pitcher who can actually strike batters out. Signing Jimenez would have the added impact of taking a top pitcher from AL Central rival, the Cleveland Indians. Since he is younger, I would consider giving him a four year deal maybe in the $52-$56M range. For the #2 spot in the rotation, I would go after the following pitchers in this order: Nolasco, Kazmir, Arroyo, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Scott Feldman, and Jason Vargas. Nolasco and Kazmir appear at the top of this list due to production and K rate. Nolasco is likely to receive the largest payday of this group and might approach Haren and Jimenez. I think he is likely to resign with the Dodgers. I have Arroyo ahead of Johnson due to his higher floor. I like the upside of Johson, but his injury history scares me. I would be more willing to gamble on Johnson if I knew Deduno was healthy or Meyer was nearly ready for the bigs. Phil Hughes' numbers away from Yankee Stadium give me reason to believe he needs a change in scenery. Feldman and Vargas would be acceptable fall back positions, but seem a bit similar to Correia. So idealy, the Twin start 2014 season with a rotation of: Haren, Nolasco, Deduno, Gibson and Correia. If they were to sign both Haren and Nolasco, I doubt they would have much money left to spend elsewhere on the roster. I would be fine with that. Cleary the rotation is problems 1,2 and possibly 3 for the Twins. If they don't figure it out, nothing else much matters. Hopefully Ryan learns from last years inactivity and doesn't get caught without a chair when the music stops

1 - I agree, just can't see Ryan forking over that kind of dough. 2 - Agree, I think Pinto catches 80 -100 games and think a vet to fill in the rest would be a good idea. Mauer becomes 1B. 3 - This has to happen, no discussion. 4 - Don't see this happening unless Plouffe implodes in ST. Twins need to wait until June. 5 - Can see why this could happen, but I doubt it.

I guess that depends on what you consider a building block. Is he a top player on a playoff team? No, he is not. Can he be a valuable starter for more than a couple of years? I think he is capable of that. He's clearly not at Knoblauch's level, but he appears to be a significant improvement over Lombardozzi and Rivas, two of the longer-serving second basemen during some of the better years for the Twins. Both Lombo and Rivas appear to have been regulars for at least three years. I give Dozier a good chance of doing better than that.

Looking at the way things have worked the past couple of years, I think you are looking at two open spots. It seems to me that the Twins kept 13 pitchers on the roster last year. That is unless you are thinking of a 6 man rotation. I would prefer they only have 12 pitchers, but we'd actually need some starters to make it into the 7th inning on a regular basis.

I think trading for Bailey would be a good move and is more in line with what I expect Ryan to do. Trade for him and then spend some of the money they are hoarding to sign him to a 4-5 year deal. Despite all of the talk, I have my doubts that Ryan spends big on a FA. I truly hope I am wrong, but think the best Ryan will end up with in FA is a Vargas/Feldman type.

Not a pretty start for the Twins. Buxton and Kepler both 1/6, Meyer gives up 3 in 3 IP and Zach Jones gives up 5 in 2/3 IP.

I could see that as a possible reason, but also highly likely caused by a bunch of young players getting their feet wet and AAAA players getting too many AB.

Why shouldn't Anderson get some credit for the success of the bullpen? Aren't those players in the bullpen considered pitchers? Cuellar should get some recognition also. Anderson should also receive some criticism for the rotation. I would suggest that a greater amount of praise for the bullpen and criticism for the rotation should be directed at Terry Ryan. He continually finds "diamonds in the rough" for the BP, but has had minimal success with the rotation. I would probably fit in the "FO apologists" category, but after this offseason I will have a tough time supporting TR if he sits on his hands.

No, this isn't a primer for the upcoming series between the Twins and A's. Y! SPORTS Let's hope the "sewage" is contained to the A's dugout over the next three days.

Thielbar only because he pitched in more crucial situations, at least to my recollection. Pressly gave them more innings, but often in a mop-up role. According to BR, Thielbar faced many more batters in "late and close" situations than Pressly (50PA vs 39 PA), especially considering Pressly's higher number of innings.

Plouffe maybe, no way you stick Sano at 1B yet.

I'd like to see a way to keep Colabello and Parmelee as a platoon 1B, part-time RF (Parms), part-time DH combo. It would give us added pop off the bench. I'm not sure this can happen unless they don't keep 3 catchers or don't keep a backup OF who can play CF. This would also assume that Escobar is the lone utility IF. The chances would be better if they deal Willingham or Doumitt.

Very bummed out. Please don't let me down Terry Ryan.

Similar sentiments on this thread as we are seeing on Nick Nelson's article. Many WANT to see one from the top 5, one from the next 15 and another flier. Sadly, after last year, I think you may have nailed what actually happens. I hope Nick is right and the financial situation has changed from last year and Ryan opens the purse strings. I keep dreaming that somehow Ryan will pull off a trade and go after somebody else who is already signed for a few years that is better than what is out there. Names like Price, Lee, Hamels, ... who have contracts that teams may want to get out of. And then I wake up and realize it won't happen. Is there a non-zero chance of this happening? The Twins certainly could afford to take on such a contract.

Why not Hicks next year? They did the same with Dozier last year and it worked out fine. I can't say I necessarily agreed with it at the time, but it worked for Dozier.

I love the idea and agree it would be an optimal way to grind out some wins with a subpar pitching staff. Here's how I could see it working: Starters: Correia Diamond Gibson Pellfrey/Worley/Deduno Swingmen (6th and 7th inning): Swarzak Devries Pressley Late Inning Guys: Lefties - Duensing and Thielbar Righties - Burton and Fein Closer - Perkins I think you can get by with a 12 man staff with this arrangement. The swingmen are used for 2 innings ionce every three days. If the starters go five, everything works great. If we get a short start, we still have five guys backing up the swingmen that can fill in innings.

I don't disagree that ulitimately Escobar is better than Bernier. I just would rather have Bernier ride the pine if Florimon and Dozier play most of the games. Escobar is young enough that I want him playing every day in AAA instead of once or twice a week for the Twins.

I am disappointed in how Hicks turned out this year, but not terribly surprised considering how he handled previous promotions. I think by mid-season next year he has earned a spot, but wouldn't be surprised to see him starting for the Twins in spring training. I have to think he needs to play winter ball this year. At least Pressley and Thomas (and maybe Mastro) give us a stopgap until he proves himself. He had better not wait too long as somebody is breathing down his neck in CF. Although I doubt Gardy would incorporate this, I'd like to see a Parmelee/Colabello platoon at 1B. Parmelee could fill in in RF on occasion. Plouffe might be in that discussion as well fairly quickly, depending on Sano. I think Escobar is the utility player of the future, with the chance to replace Florimon if he falls down. I wouldn't mind having Bernier be the backup for the start of the year. He done reasonably well in at all three spots and isn't a liability at the plate. Long term Escobar probably takes that spot.

He is Kubel from a couple years ago. Plays in RF/LF occasionally, destined to be a DH more often.

Anybody else think he's safe if he slide to the back side of the base? It looked to me like the throw was going to be late. Pointless.

The next 4 days offer Chris Herrmann a clear opportunity increase his chances of a spot for next year. Hopefully he is in the lineup every day while Mauer is on the DL. Three catchers (Mauer, Doumitt and Herrmann) with the ability to play elsewhere (if you give Doumitt credit for OF) is a nice luxury. His minor league OBP numbers suggest he might slot in well at the #2 spot when he fills in for Mauer. A third catcher who can actually hit is also a nice luxury.

Maybe it was good they didn't televise this one. I might have to find a way to catch the AA game tonight.

Haven't been listening to the game, but catching up as I saw the game progress. I was curious as to what others had to say about Gibson. My thought when I saw the ticker on ESPN was that it's time to shut him down. His confidence will be shot if they give him a few more outings like this. 12 baserunners and 11 outs is not a good ratio.

That was not a productive PA. I hung my head as soon a he got out. I assumed Arcia would K. I'm glad he proved me wrong.

I'd have pitched to Mauer. Nice rips by Thomas and Dozier.