Physics Guy
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Everything posted by Physics Guy
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Keep up the positivity Nick. I am hoping it comes to fruition. Only time will tell. -
When it was first rumored, I was on board with trading for Bailey. After thinking about it over the last month, I think the Twins should pass. It's not that I don't want Bailey on the team. I actually agree with Shane on this one. Garza has the best upside that isn't attached to a draft pick. Since the Twins are most likely still in rebuilding mode, they should sign two quality starters this year and try to reach respectability. Next year you go after Bailey in FA when it won't cost anything (except maybe a 2nd rounder or possibly a 1st rounder). Bailey is most likely not going to sign an extension, so then it would be foolish to trade for him.
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Position of strength? No. Position we could use an upgrade at? Maybe. High on the priority list? No. Are Florimon and Escobar worth anything in trade? Doubtful. I am fine with Florimon for the time being with the hope that Santana, Polanco or Goodrum might be an upgrade in a year or two. The first, second and third priority is SP. You could convince me that C is #3.
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FYI Ballpark Factors for HR Great American Ball Park - Cincinnatti - 1.338 Target Field - 0.802 This might have something to do with it. I would think Arroyo would like the change.
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Yes, I agree he is the best SS in the game (when he plays). The much-maligned Joe Mauer (as far as health is concerned) has more plate appearances over the past seven years than Tulo. He will be 29 next year and has a history of injuries. I would not doubt the Rockies ask for Tavares and Miller, but I can't see the Cards giving that much up. Tavares is a top 5 prospect and Miller was a top 10 for some. He just went 15-9 with an ERA just over 3 and struck out nearly a batter per inning at 22 years of age. The proposal in this article makes more sense: http://www.i70baseball.com/2013/11/13/what-would-you-give-up-to-get-tulo/
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For a SS who has played 140+ games in 3 out of 7 seasons? He is also owed $118M for the next 6 years whereas Miller is cost controlled for the next 5? years.
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I've read elsewhere that the Cards are interested in Tulo. I could see a deal around Tulo and Miller working for both sides.
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We've had a similar discussion not long ago: http://www.twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=9338&highlight=shelby+miller
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Doesn't anybody else think that his offensive production (and I don't mean counting stats) will improve when he isn't subjected to the grind of catching? I used to think that he was Mark Grace if he played 1B, but I think his numbers improve because he will be physically less worn down.
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Nice article Parker. I enjoyed the read. I would be happy if the Twins signed any of the three pitchers since they would all be an upgrade. I'd prefer Nolasco at $52M/4yrs, maybe a team option for 5. Maybe Ryan could agree to an incentive-laden one year contract for Johnson and turn it into something similar to what we did with Pavano.
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Here's a link to an article (Insider) by Buster Olney regarding potential FA SP bargains: 10 potential bargain starting arms - ESPN For those without Insider privileges, here's the 10 he lists: Arroyo, Hudson, Burnett, Colon, Feldman, Kazmir, Haren, Hughes and J. Johnson. I think it's reasonable to think this is the sort of list Terry Ryan is shopping from. I don't see him going after the very top of the list (E.Santana, Jimenez, Garza and Tanaka). I could very well see him picking up a couple from this list. I'd prefer any of the last four and wouldn't mind Arroyo.
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Thoughts on a hypothesized trade
Physics Guy replied to the_youngster's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think I would give the Cards any three guys that aren't Sano, Buxtton or Meyer for Miller. The problem is that they want a SS. -
Thanks for the link.
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Thoughts on a hypothesized trade
Physics Guy replied to the_youngster's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I still don't get why the Rangers didn't trade Andrus last year before giving him that contract. He had a .659 OPS last year. After this year (when he makes $6.475M) he will be making $15M a year for the next eight and they have what everybody believes is an excellent replacement for him in Profar. -
Thoughts on a hypothesized trade
Physics Guy replied to the_youngster's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Miller for Profar is the trade both teams might consider. My guess is Texas might want a little more and because of that the trade wouldn't happen. St. Louis probably wants nothing to do with Andrus' salary. Just because we want Miller doesn't mean we have a snowball's chance in hell of being involved in this trade. I don't see how we can get involved unless Sano or Buxton are part of it. -
Thanks for putting yourself out there, Shane. Overall, I think you have some good ideas. I know you have been a big proponent for dumping most of our veterans. I like your ideas, but just don't think most of your trade proposals would be taken by the other teams. Relievers are pretty fungible and Doumit and Willingham's stock are way down. I think you have the right idea regarding free-agent pitchers, although 5 years of Santana scares me a bit. Every couple of years he throws out a clunker. Unfortunately, the Twins will have to go 4 or 5 years to get somebody who is an upgrade. I agree that Plouffe and Parmelee should be given another opportunity. While Plouffe didn't take the next step last year, I am still intrigued by his power. We need to find out if Parmelee is capable of being a player. I'm starting to get the feeling that both he and Colabello are AAAA players.
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I would be more than fine with replacing one of the FA signings with Bailey, contingent on him signing an extension. I doubt Boston lets Lester go. He is their #1 pitcher and they can afford to keep him. Anderson is a good pitcher, but his injury history is not good. If you can get him on the cheap, fine.
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You are right in that Tanaka will not personally get $20M per season, but the Twins would most likely have to pay that out. ($50M posting to team + $50M/5yr contract as an estimate). Rangers paid just over $50M posting fee and $60M/6 yr contract. The fact that only the player contract goes against the cap does not diminish the fact that the Twins will most likely view the entire amount in their budget.
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I don't dispute that the Twins can afford Tanaka. I just think Ryan will have difficulties finding the nerve to throw $100M at anyone. I think he may struggle to give a pitcher $10M+ per year, much less $20M (and yes I do realize not all of it goes to the pitcher).
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I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship. I originally wrote a blog that was the basis for starting this thread. My guidelines were to propose a rotation that was feasible, yet more aggressive than the Twins have been in the past. I was making an assumption that the Twins might spend $25-30M in free agency. I've seen many posts that are pushing for Tanaka and a few for Santana. I just don't see the Twins going big enough for Tanaka. Both the posting fee and the eventual contract will most likely be each be more than double what is the most of any FA contract the Twins have given out ($21M for Willingham). As for Ervin Santana, I can't see Ryan giving up a 2nd rounder to sign him if indeed the Royals do give him the qualifying offer. I sincerely hope I am wrong about both, as I would be happy for the Twins to have either player. I just don't feel either is likely.
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Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.
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I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having. First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9 Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9 Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well. I blogged in more detail about the rotation: Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
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I believe Jimenez has the option if he is traded, which he was by the Rockies.
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The Twins need to fill the top two spots in their rotation for 2014. What are your thoughts about this possible rotation: #1) Dan Haren - 3 yrs, $42M #2) Ricky Nolasco - 4 yrs, $48M #3) Samuel Deduno #4) Kyle Gibson #5) Kevin Correia If Deduno isn't healthy we can bump Gibson and Correia up and put in Diamond, Worley, Albers, Meyer or May. Could the Twins be .500 with this rotation if they make no other changes to the team?
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I would hope they would find a spot for Meyer if he proves he is ready.
