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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously, but we're probably not going to finish with 312 HR for the season like our current pace suggests. I think the poster is saying that eventually we'll need to find other ways to score if we want to maintain this winning percentage -- but I think we should be capable of doing that. Our BB% is low, but so is our K%, and we're not getting any BABIP luck right now either.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No worries. Bandwagons are fun. For me, it's still just such a small sample for 2019 -- a single HR, or two doubles, is worth a full .070 of SLG (or ~28 points of wRC+) for Rortvedt right now on his 2019 line. A single 0-for-4 would drop his season OPS by .046, or ~18 points of wRC+. But if he can keep it up, especially with a promotion to AA, he could really jump. I don't know about top 100 quite yet, although Jason Castro was top 100 with a 139 wRC+ at high-A and a 107 wRC+ at AA (although he was top 100 before that too, the pedigree of a 10th overall pick from Stanford).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Time of game was actually 2:31, although it started 30 minutes earlier than usual (6:40) so it probably felt shorter. Loved the game last night (especially the result), but it sort of highlights the modern pace of play / game length problem, from my perspective. No replay challenges, no mid-inning pitching changes, lots of strikes, very few baserunners (Astros just 6 batters over the minimum, Twins 5), home team didn't bat in the bottom of the ninth -- absolute perfect conditions for the quickest game reasonably possible -- -yet the game still took 2:31. That's the baseline for why the average game is 3:04 and can feel like it's dragging at times -- because the baseline pace/time is already stretched so far, it can't really tolerate any further stretching. And that's why I'd love to finally see a pitch clock in MLB, rather than a 3 batter minimum or other more complicated changes. If we could pull this baseline down to 2:15, I think the average game would feel a lot crisper (and those 7:10 game starts would end by 10:00 on average). Pull the baseline down to 2:00 and that would be even better, of course, but I'll take what I can get. Sadly, it seems like the pitch clock is just a negotiating tool between MLB/MLBPA, rather than a likely implementation, at this point.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think MLB might continually update their list to remove prospect graduations. But you're right, I wouldn't expect any big update / reordering until midseason.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Rodgers is a good prospect, but him raking in AAA might not boost his relative ranking much, as it is the PCL. He has a 1.025 OPS -- but his entire team has a .951 OPS!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if I'd call his 105 wRC+ there last year as "well above average". It is pretty much a tick above average, well within any margin of error. His start this year is intriguing, but in such a small sample, I don't know if it's meaningful yet. His BB rate seems unsustainable. And with such low offensive levels in the FSL, and such a small sample, if Rortvedt got a wind-aided or fielder-aided XBH, it could have really boosted his power numbers so far without being indicative of skill. Still, better he is doing this than struggling, that's for sure. But it's just too early for me to really think about significantly upgrading his stock.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting comp. It's easy to forget or overlook, but Rogers had some good stretches in the minors as a starter. In fact, at the end of his first season in AA, when he was about the exact same age and experience as Smelzter now, Rogers finished with an 0.64 ERA over his last 28 innings, with 27 K's. His league featured better hitting (.718 OPS) than Smeltzer's current league too (.679 OPS), and a much lower league K% (19.0% vs 24.1%).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That is correct about Sano: "Twins' Miguel Sano will begin rehab assignment on Tuesday" http://www.startribune.com/twins-miguel-sano-will-begin-rehab-assignment-on-tuesday/509168382/ And I assume Kirilloff will move from EST games to actual games this week too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Javier was playing games this spring, even had 7 AB in MLB camp, but was sidelined on March 15th with a quad strain: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-wander-javier-exits-with-quad-strain/ That's why he's been out of game action since then -- although they certainly may be taking his recovery slowly given his complete absence last year.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Fun article, although worth noting the Orioles are on another level of bad-ness. The 1999 Twins only lost 97 games. And that was arguably the low point (on-field) of the 1993-2000 era (we also lost a prorated 98 games in the strike-shortened 1995 season). The Orioles went 45-117 last year -- and they started the season actually trying to win! Fangraphs projected them for 75.5 wins before the 2018 season, basically a repeat of their 2017. The depth of the Orioles badness is truly remarkable.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    This is all fair, but we probably could have said the same thing at times in 2018. We finished 6-1 vs BAL, and a respectable 15-16 vs CLE/HOU/TOR. (Didn't play PHI/NYM.) We had some disappointment vs KC in particular, but we finished .579 vs DET/CWS/KC for the season (.632 vs DET/CWS, .474 vs KC). And of course, if KC/DET/CWS/BAL are really as bad as we think/hope, it may take over 90 wins to win the division or even a wild card spot again. Remember last year, the Rays finished with 90 wins and the Mariners with 89 -- and neither finished particularly close to a playoff spot! Hopefully our 2019 squad is up to the task of getting it done this time.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that even the 2018 Twins went 6-1 vs Baltimore, outscoring them 41-14. After losing 3-2 in extra innings on opening day, we won the next 6 matchups. The 2019 Twins finish at 6-0 vs the Orioles, outscoring them 45-19. KC was probably our biggest thorn in 2018, relative to expectations.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Negative 15 pitches?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, the argument goes beyond starting pitchers. Buxton and Schoop inexplicably sat the Verlander day too, before an off day, while Adrianza started for the 3rd time in 5 days. Second of all, I am not arguing that Baltimore was a pushover. Actually, I am arguing the opposite -- we could have improved our odds of winning vs Baltimore with a different 26th man addition than Romero. Namely, another starter, with Perez backing up in the pen that day and/or the next as needed, and I think we could have been better off (as it was, we almost lost one of the games or at least almost saw it go to extra innings with a depleted pen). All that comes before the Verlander game.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The forecast was clear for Saturday and Sunday in Baltimore, and Monday through Wednesday we were playing under a dome in Houston. So as soon as the game was called last Friday, we knew we were going to be at least 1 starter short in the next 6 games. The only alternative to using a AAA starter in that time was having a bullpen game, which was pretty much an impossibility due to the pen's own rest/usage issues. I'm certainly not surprised that we lost to Verlander, or 2 out of 3 in Houston in general, but I think it's fair to question whether we gave ourselves the best chance in that game/series. Reasonable people can differ in that judgement.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    This is correct, it is 20 days total. The one catch is that it's strictly a count of days on "optional assignment". Any other assignment to the minor leagues (meaning, for players who aren't on the 40-man roster yet) doesn't count toward the 20 day threshold. The Twins did that with Tyler Duffey in 2015. He was in the minor leagues most of the year, but didn't use an option year because he was only on "optional assignment" for a brief period in August after he was added to the 40-man roster, called up to MLB, and then optioned to AAA. His time in the minor leagues prior to August that year was not on "optional assignment" and thus those days didn't count toward the 20. Perhaps we could see something similar this year with guys like Graterol, Alcala, or Jax...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously it's all small sample right now, but since an awful first 7 games of the season (.080 AVG, .195 OPS), Dozier has an .861 OPS in his last 14 games, which is comparable to Schoop's season line of .887 (although Schoop in turn has a 1.028 OPS after his first 7 games!).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Trea Turner is still on the DL IL for the Nationals though too. I suspect Kierboom will take most of his playing time from Difo at SS.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Brian Dozier's Glorious Smile:
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The more I think about the Saturday start idea, the more I like it. You could have started Berrios and a AAA guy last Saturday, and pushed everyone else back a day, meaning Gibson would get a start against Houston instead of Stewart. Or, perhaps better, start a AAA guy Saturday and use Perez out of the pen. Gives you more flexibility than just adding Romero to the pen for the day (Perez could come in earlier and/or pitch longer if necessary), and it lets you keep everyone else on the same schedule, just with Perez starting last night in Houston instead of Stewart.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios could have started Saturday, same as he actually did.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but Stewart's odds of beating Baltimore were higher than beating Houston, and Gibson's odds of beating Houston were higher than Stewart's too.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You know, your second sentence reads a little like a justification for not trying... I won't go as far as to say they weren't trying, but I do see some questionable priorities if they are really trying their best to win. Beginning with, not starting a AAA pitcher in Baltimore, possibly because they wanted to give Stewart a hometown start... starting the ice cold Marwin all 3 games in his old town... benching the warm Buxton and Schoop the game before an off day for no discernable reason (I hope they were not simply trying to "protect" Buxton against a good pitcher as you implied). Oh, and working in a start for bench player Adrianza... after he just started consecutive games 2 days ago.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    They could have started a AAA pitcher against Baltimore on Saturday instead.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, those were all in that one crazy 15 HR game. Outside of that, Romero has only allowed 1 hit in 7 innings, zero runs, 2 BB (and 2 HBP), 9 K's. Still a work in progress, as evidenced by his season debut in Baltimore. He might get a chance tonight to make a case against the Astros -- I suspect either Romero or Harper could get optioned to make room for Magill as early as Friday.
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