Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Ah, following the Brian Dozier model, then?
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Looking at yearly ERA+ numbers, looks like our recent max year-to-year swing was about 14 points (adding 14 from 2003 to 2004, subtracting 14 from 2010 to 2011). The Royals just had a 22 point jump, but they were far more aggressive last offseason than the Twins have ever been. The Indians made a 17 point jump, but of course they had suffered an 11 point drop from 2011-2012 due to career-worst performances from Masterson and Jimenez (plus the rotting hulk of Derek Lowe). -
To be fair to the OP, a 3.7 team ERA in 2013 would have equated to roughly a 109 ERA+ in Target Field. The Twins have eclipsed that a few times, although not since 2006. To be more critical of the OP, the team ERA+ last year was 89, the third straight year at or below that number. Previously, the Twins hadn't had a single year ERA+ mark that low since 1995, another mess that TR largely inherited but did not turn around quickly.
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What do we think of Jorge Polanco? Similar age as Kepler (actually ~5 months younger), better recent health and arguably stats in Low-A. It would be interesting to see if any notable MLB players ever went unprotected but were not claimed...
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While I understand and mostly agree with your larger point (he's unlikely to be selected), I believe if added now, Kepler would be 24 when he "had" to stick in the majors. Ages 21-23 would be his three option years. From your list, it should be noted that Bartlett, Mientkiewicz, Koskie, and Jones were all college draftees. Those ages you list were generally their fourth full pro seasons, a level Kepler will be attaining next year (giving him a pass for his first "full" rookie ball season at age 17). Even if added to the 40-man now, Kepler would still be getting 6+ full seasons of minor league play. Also, Kubel only played 30 games in the minors after age 22, and probably only "needed" them due to injury. Morneau played 72 at age 23, arguably did not need them, and played none thereafter. Cuddyer played 55 at age 24, arguably did not need them, and played none thereafter. Guys who are capable of becoming MLB regulars are generally capable of sticking in the majors by age 23-24 (or, if college drafted, age 25).
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For the record, I am pretty down on Kepler myself, pending his AFL performance. He was the international man of mystery for awhile, but he's at an age now where he really should be showing some production. I agree the risk of losing him at this time is probably quite low. I just don't think it would hamper the Twins or Kepler to protect him now if they feel it is warranted.
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This front office has a track record that inspires pessimism. Yes, they built a nice winner from 2001-2010 but TR helmed 6 losing seasons prior (and the org as a whole had 8 losing seasons prior). He's never really helmed a quick turnaround, certainly not with the kind of teams we fielded in 2013. The 2000 Twins were much, much better positioned than their 2013 counterparts. (Same with past Twins turnarounds 1986 and 1990) Also, we have assets to trade? That's crazy talk. Yeah, I am sure we could trade Sano and Buxton, but those kind of trades are rare for a reason. I'm not sure if a trade like that has ever been done by a team as bereft of MLB-ready talent as the 2013 Twins.
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Love the page -- but is there any chance the site's right sidebar could be disabled for it? Lots of good info on the right side of the charts, but it gets obscured unless you scroll each table over... and then you can't see the left side of the chart! If the right sidebar has to stay, maybe some kind of "mini-scroll" feature like the Baseball-Reference mobile site would be more workable (i.e. the left column(s) stay fixed as you "scroll" right to see more columns). Either way, it's an awesome data source, and I applaud your efforts!
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That's a good problem to have. It's kinda like delaying service time -- if the guy is good enough that you're still talking about him 3+ years down the road, burning an option year or giving him a month extra service time will be very small potatoes. If they like Kepler now, or even if they are down on him at the moment but liked him recently, they would be pretty foolish to risk losing him for a 40-man roster spot, particularly given the current construction of the 40-man roster.
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Interesting take. I theorize that Ryan used to overrule Gardenhire a fair amount in his first tenure. I don't recall anybody of note being moved after being in Gardy's "doghouse". But as soon as Bill Smith took over, note how rumored malcontents Bartlett and Garza were immediately packaged together in a deal, Santana was traded before his walk year so he wouldn't be a distraction, followed later by the frustrating Gomez and eventually the "too slow" JJ Hardy. EDIT TO ADD: Plus the "proven closer" Capps acquisition. Not sure if the power balance changed permanently in TR's absence? I suspect TR is back to overruling Gardy but frankly there aren't enough useful players on this club to tell right now!
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This list almost seemed like a cruel joke until Thielbar. Negative WAR for all involved, except Albers (0.2 in 60 IP). (Hicks actually has positive WAR at BB-Ref, though -- Seth is apparently using Fangraphs numbers.) Luck or not, Thielbar has to win from this list. It should have been Arcia but man, that was a rough second half for him (he maintained his isolated power, but I just can't get past the defense and the SO:BB ratio). Actually, I think Pinto would be eligible to win both this year and next. He gets my write-in vote, and hopefully he wins it again next year. (And even more hopefully, he is no longer eligible in 2015!)
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Any of Feldman, Hughes, Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Josh Johnson, etc. will command a contract worth at least twice as much as the Twins have ever bestowed upon a free agent pitcher. Some of them almost certainly more than our biggest outside free agent position player signing too. So if you expect them to sign TWO of that group, in the same offseason... that's optimism. For the record, I'd endorse a plan to sign two of that type of group, almost regardless of the money or years needed. The Twins have the cash and have no other outlets for it, for at least 4+ years. Throw in a lottery ticket like Johan or Halladay and I'd be especially pleased.
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TR built a good bullpen in 2013, no one's disputing that. And he's built good ones before. But you cannot compare bullpens to starters like this. Until they double the roster size to 50, you need both. Verlander 2013 WAR: 4.6 total or .021 WAR/IP *** and this was a "down" season for him! Twins Bullpen 2013 WAR: ~6.7 total or .012 WAR/IP Notice how one accumulates WAR at almost twice the rate of the others? The current Twins are about as devoid of starting pitching as a major league organization can get. They either need to start using their best "asset" (spending room) to acquire some, or they need to admit they're perfectly happy wasting 5-6 seasons in cheap "rebuild" mode, waiting for future success which might never come.
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I think I get this post. It's sorta laying out how the 2000s Twins were built (although as others have noted, there are some accuracy issues here). But remember, that rebuild took ~6 seasons of BAD baseball. And it only succeeded after a Rule 5 pick started pitching at a HoF level, and it only continued into the latter half of the decade because a #1 overall draft pick also started producing at a HoF level. If that's Terry Ryan's blueprint for rebuilding the franchise again, while avoiding any risk whatsoever in free agency or the international market, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the 2002-2010 renaissance.
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What's the price tag on Gardy now? I imagine another losing season lowered his price a bit. That's probably why the Twins waited -- I don't think they ever had any intention of letting him go at this point, regardless of how the team performed in 2013.
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I happen to think TR's first tenure could count as one rebuild. However, it was a slow painful one (6 losing seasons under TR) before 2001. It seemed less painful at the time because we were all distracted by Don Beaver, the threat of contraction, the threat of player strikes, ballpark lobbying, etc. And most of all, the lack of Twins Daily. Unfortunately, it seems like TR is choosing a very similar approach to the current rebuild. We're already at 3 losing seasons (2 under TR) and unless we take serious, unprecedented action on the FA front soon, will likely be at 5 losing seasons in a row before our top prospects even break camp with the big club. And that strategy, to this fan, feels a bit unacceptable, given the financial resources this club has at its disposal (the lack of which was a key reason the last rebuild took so long, and even why the ensuing success soon seemed underwhelming).
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He's doing AL only, so his data pull only got the Brewers for a couple seasons in the 1990s before they switched to the NL. Likewise, it only included the Astros for 2013. I would have included the NL too. The Twins compete with all of MLB in player acquisition, even if they only compete with AL teams in the standings.
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The numbers in the article are just position players, correct? So Nathan, Liriano, and Santana shouldn't be in there? Also, when you do pitchers, I would put Santana in the Rule 5 category. The Twins were going to pick him first, but the Marlins called and wanted to make sure they could get their guy, so they gave the Twins a little cash to essentially swap picks. You wouldn't credit the Timberwolves with Ray Allen or O.J. Mayo, right?
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Really? Plouffe I sorta get -- even outside of his crazy 2012, he's been around an .800 OPS vs LHP. But Parmelee's at .749 vs RHP for his career, and that includes his otherworldly 1.069 from September 2011. He's at .698 vs RHP since then, over 411 PA. That's hardly worth platooning over Plouffe's career .662 OPS vs RHP (and Plouffe's .147 ISO vs RHP is identical to Parmelee's post-2011, so your entire gain is about 20 points of AVG and 10 extra points OBP). Even Plouffe's platooning potential is limited because it's the short half of the platoon. At least he has some more theoretical positional flexibility, but basically, if a guy is worth being the long half of a platoon (playing vs RHP), he's probably worth starting full-time. Parmelee hasn't looked like that guy yet, especially not in RF.
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Is there a list anywhere of suspected MLB careers ended or dramatically affected by concussions? Even just anecdotally? I know not much attention was paid to concussions until recently, but given the apparent sudden severity of the Koskie, Morneau, and now Mauer concussions, you would think there would be some evidence of previous occurrences in MLB, at least some flags about generic missed time + sudden severe performance decline. I just can't think of any other examples than those Twins connected ones.
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Great post, hope this gets promoted for more discussion. I was about to pull similar data myself -- although I probably would have expanded it beyond the AL, and mainly just used cumulative WAR totals (and maybe percent of a team's total WAR). But the $/WAR stuff is interesting too. It confirms what I was suspecting in another thread recently: that not only have the Twins largely ignored free agency, they've also done quite little internationally. They are WAY too dependent on the draft (and perhaps not that great at drafting, as evidenced by weak prospect lists pre-Buxton).
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Although Hicks' best asset (offensively) was his plate discipline, and after walking 11 times during that horrendous April, he only walked 13 times the rest of the year.
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8 Reasons I am not worried about Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson
Otto von Ballpark commented on Brad Swanson's blog entry in Kevin Slowey was Framed!
Just looking at your first example, Viola started 22 games and pitched 126 innings for his -0.1 WAR. Extrapolate Gibson's -0.8 WAR from his 10 starts and he's quite a bit worse. Actually all of your pitching examples have this problem. Looking at ERA+ would be better, and Gibson is notably worse than all of them (although to be fair he had fewer starts/innings than everyone except Garza). The only way to excuse it is the injury and small sample size. Hicks fares a bit better in these comparisons. Although I do note that all of your comparables had much lower K rates, both as rookies and through their minor league careers. -
You do realize that, by definition, all strikeouts will come with two strikes? Unless Bugs Bunny is pitching, I suppose... As to your suggestion, I suspect it is not that easy to change hitting approaches at MLB. I would guess that very few people or capable of doing it at that level (and they may be worse hitters overall anyway).
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All-Prospect team: Callis vs Mayo
Otto von Ballpark replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Interesting that Baez, Lindor, and Correa were all born in Puerto Rico (although only Correa stuck around for HS-level ball there, the other two moved to Florida). Bogaerts, of course, is Sidney Ponson's countryman in Aruba.
