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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Jeremy right now:
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, the Reds DFA'd Duke and released him earlier this month.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Fine. Would you rather look at more recent results? Soria's K/9 was 9.7 in 2016-2017; 9.5 from 2013-2017 (Smith is at 12.0 since 2013). Not that 9.8 is necessarily bad or anything, but especially considering their ages, there's no way to slice it to suggest Soria was likely to maintain his 11.4 mark with the White Sox in 2018. So John using that figure to try to equate Soria's value to that of Smith is misleading.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    SF needs everything. If they are going to reverse their fortunes from the past few years, they are going to need far more than just the proceeds from their 2019 deadline trades. To best achieve that, their preferred plan is probably getting the best quality they can at this deadline, and hope that improved drafting/scouting/development can improve their depth from within, just as the Twins have done the past few years. Because it's harder to quickly get quality prospects from within. But at the same time, they may not hold out for a 50 FV guy here if they have an offer on the table with three 45 FV guys they really like. So in that sense, I agree with you. However, that kind of quantity/depth trade doesn't mean they will just take our spare parts, injured/underperforming prospects, or surplus Rule 5 eligibles, as is often suggested around here!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, it is a lot of HR, but those HR aren't hit in a vacuum. So Gordon may be getting benefits on some of his doubles too. And he may get more indirect benefits as well -- maybe he sees more pitches to hit, to square up some if those doubles to the gap, with more likely HR hitters behind him.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    To be even more fair, Perez wasn't "still in the DSL" in that he had been stuck there a long time. It was his first full pro season. (He signed the previous summer at age 19.) I think he was still a fringe prospect, but he was a late signing rather than a DSL veteran. Alcala signed at age 19 too.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Finally, there is a difference between the price the Giants wind up accepting to move him somewhere, versus the price the Twins may have to pay to specifically bring him here. Put another way: the Giants may wind up settling for a return like Stewart + filler. But, there are probably a dozen teams willing to make that kind of offer. The Twins making that offer too doesn't actually give them good odds of landing the player. If the Twins can take him or leave him, that may be fine, but if the Twins actually want to land Smith, they may need to make a better offer that could beat other offers.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    A few more differences: Kodi Medeiros is a LHP; Stewart is a RHP. Neither Medeiros or Perez was on the 40-man roster at the time. (Although the White Sox did add Medeiros after the season.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    A few things: Soria is a RHP, Smith is LHP. Soria was 5 years older. Sofia was making twice as much in salary. Soria's career K/9 is only 9.8. He was likely due to regress from his 2018 numbers (and he has). Smith's career mark since moving to the pen is 12.0, so 2019 is well in line.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. I mean, it is pretty much league average, by definition.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not a bad line from Gordon, especially after last year, but you have to account for the IL offensive environment this year. The whole league has a .343 OBP, and a .793 OPS. (For comparison, the last time MLB non-pitchers hit that well was 2000, the original height of the sillyball era. Only at .326 and .766 this year, even with all the dingers.) Fangraphs rates Gordon's performance as a 97 wRC+, so just a hair below the IL average. Again, not bad, but nothing I am too eager to see against MLB pitching either.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    A flyer to do what? Schoop is a pending FA. I don't think he is a bad player, but he has virtually zero value to a non-playoff team right now. (Arguably negative value, if he takes opportunities away from other players.) I guess if we need to shed a couple mil salary, we could package him with a prospect or two, like the Dodgers did with Forsythe last year.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    There is no such as revocable waivers anymore. That was August trade waivers in past years, which have been eliminated. The only waivers left are outright/release waivers, and those are always irrevocable.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not infatuated or anything, but there is some potential for a discount by getting two players in one deal. Maybe separately, a team wants X value in return for each player, but together, they can be convinced to accept some Y value that we think is less than X*2.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. Greinke has a partial no trade covering 15 teams, including the Twins.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Anderson has shown flashes, but has only produced 0.1 bWAR for Miami so far. It's possible that the Twins knew Anderson was going to be selected in the Rule 5 draft, so they figured they might as well get something back for losing him. (Of course, we could have also opted to protect him ourselves, or see if a Rule 5 team would eventually return him like Bard.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The example draft under discussion was 2017. The Twins pool was $14.1 mil that year, so they could have added about $700k in bonuses that year with only the tax penalty. (With the penalty, the total additional cost to the Twins would have been about $1.2 mil, which may be where the $1 mil suggestion came from. Plus if they had any left over from their original pool, I suppose -- I think they spent just about everything but I can't recall a final accounting.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not griping about any particular draft -- I see it more as a theoretical approach to the bonus rules. But that said, the Twins likely drafted the guys they thought would sign for their bonus pool, so you can't really use those guys as an argument they didn't need to spend beyond the pool. A team who was willing to spend beyond the pool probably drafts a different collection of guys.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't be greedy!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Should a team spend more when its competition is weak, or when its competition is strong? It's also relative. Cleveland increased their payroll dramatically in 2017 and 2018 -- team record high payrolls both years. 2019 is only a cut relative to those years, and frankly it is a pretty modest cut so far. Easy to say now that they should have QO'd/re-signed Brantley, but that would have given them a team record high payroll in 2019 -- even after shedding Alsonso, Gomes, and exchanging Encarnacion for Santana. Same if they had signed Pollock or McCutchen instead.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Walbeck and Stevens was the return for Willie Banks to the Cubs, which was an offseason trade. Aguilera to Boston fetched Frankie Rodriguez. (Aguilera later went to the Cubs and fetched Kyle Lohse in May 1999.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Who's Bobby Kielty? I remember a Dusty Kielmohr, do you mean him?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins cut payroll in 2008, when we traded Johan and let Torii walk. And they kept it below 2007 levels in 2009 too. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No, I just wanted to correct the common misconception that Cleveland "sold off parts" this past winter for primarily budgetary reasons, that's all. If you just want to disagree with that poster, I would simply say the Cleveland payroll and FA spending has tracked pretty close to that of the Twins in recent years.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Everyone is someone's "kid".
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