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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering that Glasnow had been an elite prospect, with never so much as a hiccup in the minors (with good health too). Yes, he was bad in Pittsburgh, but in limited use, he was better than ever at AAA in 2017, and he was still young because he was a HS draftee. I think a lot of teams still valued him, not elite (top 10-20) prospect value anymore but top 100 or maybe even top 50 Meadows-type value. (Would be interesting to see guys like that ranked even if they have too many MLB IP/PA.) That might be close to a Balazovic ranking now even though it's a different profile. (Meyer was older, never that elite, and his value tanked with a rough year at AAA in 2015.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    This link is a good sanity check for trade proposals: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ Your Mets proposal fails badly, even without accounting for the fact that Graterol is still on the shelf with shoulder issues. Your Giants deal is only "maybe accepted" but they list Watson with 1.5 years control when 2020 is actually a player option. So that might be close, although I suspect it may not be all that distinguishable from other offers -- 40 FV prospects are fairly fungible.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And at Fangraphs, Archer had a career 92 ERA- / 87 FIP- / 84 xFIP-, compared to Stroman's 89/85/84. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,to&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=6345,13431&startdate=2012-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31 Previous 3 years by ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- Archer 98/93/80 96/80/76 104/88/86 Stroman 71/88/82 130/92/91 67/78/88
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you sure about that? At the time of the trade, Archer had a career 107 ERA+ and his three most recent season marks were 100, 103, 97. Stroman has a 113 career mark, and his three most recent are 145, 76, 148.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Tim Mayza, maybe? He has some good numbers vs LHB, although his K% is actually lower vs LHB than RHB. And he might be a bit too much of a project for a pennant race acquisition...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. Diekman, maybe? But I'd be wary of adding too many current KC relievers if I am try to compete right now!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Biggio is getting deployed as a utility guy right now, but the Jays probably wouldn't prioritize adding another MLB-ready middle infield prospect like Gordon right now (unless they really, really like him, of course). I could see them wanting to replace Gordon with a pitcher, an outfielder, or a catcher.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that. That's not a bad package (and it passes at baseballtradevalues.com), but I think Detroit will be looking for more quality than just quantity with their best trade asset. And with 3.5 years of control remaining, they have some time to decide too. Unless of course Detroit suspects Boyd's 2019 K rate is just a mirage (or won't translate into sustained success) and want to cash him in now, in which case maybe *we* don't want to make that deal...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    No, May is out of options. I suspect Stewart or Littell could get sent down.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think those levels are like MLB spring training: they seem to only log the minimum number of pitches necessary for the PA outcome. So regardless of what pitch sequence actually happens, they log 3 (all strikes) for every strikeout, 4 (all balls) for every walk, and 1 strike for every ball in play. Cantorino had 4 Ks and recorded 5 other outs to complete 3 innings, and gave up 1 hit and no walks. Thus we see (4*3) + 5 + 1 = 18, all strikes. Basically, no one is recording the actual pitches, so the software just makes something up to satisfy itself.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Gordon has a 94 wRC+, his 2nd worst minor league stop to date, ahead of only his 2018 disaster at AAA. Out of 15 Red Wing players with 100+ PA this year, he ranks 12th in wRC+, and 2 of the 3 guys behind him are gone from the org already. (And after a hideous start, Ronald Torreyes might still catch him.) And that's with the benefit of a .360 BABIP for Gordon. Hard to judge defense from afar, but Gordon also has the lowest fielding percentage of their top 3 SS and top 3 2B, although he does lead those SS in range factor. He's still relatively young, and he's light years ahead of his epic 2018 slump, but objectively, it's hard to see how his prospect stock hasn't fallen in 2019 (or hasn't recovered much among those who downgraded him after 2019).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless he is added back to the 40-man roster, Moya will be a minor league free agent at the end of this season anyway. So it seems the Twins won't have to release him to be rid of him soon, but nor will they be able to take much advantage of his relative youth anymore.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Who cares about the miles on his arm if he's a short term rental? And if the prospect price reflects the fact that he's a rental, that should be fine too. And Bumgarner is FAR more likely to be actually available (especially to the Twins) than Greinke.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the Twins tidbit: Hasn't this been reported before? Doesn't seem like much at this point.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Would Gardy even know any of our current prospects? That was 5 years ago already. I think only Gibson, May, and Polanco (barely) even played under Gardy in Minnesota: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.shtml Unless by "Gardy's boys" you mean we somehow trade them Ft. Myers manager Toby Gardenhire.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario is a solid player, but it looks like he is reaching a plateau as a 116 OPS+, 3.5 WAR type corner outfielder. Still plenty useful at arb prices for age 28-29, but I'd hesitate to extend for age 30+ without a significant discount.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know how much stock I'd put in such small splits, but Stroman has actually done just fine vs the Yankees overall (4.23 ERA in 17 starts, versus a career ERA of 3.82). I guess you could look at his 6.13 ERA in 10 starts in Yankee Stadium as a problem, but it also suggests he's been pretty good against the Yankees at home. Unless it's the wild card game in NY, I suppose you could start him at home. (FWIW, his worst year vs the Yankees was also his worst year overall, 2018.) Stroman has been solid in/vs. Boston and Houston too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Would you prefer, "pitchers can influence the occurrence of passed balls"? As I said, I didn't see the game, I don't know how this particular one happened.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually they went with "Redlegs" in the 1950s due to anticommunist sentiment: https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/56756/tbt-when-the-reds-became-redlegs
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Even if you satisfy the Diamondbacks demands, Greinke can put the brakes on the whole thing. (And there's not even an obvious enticement that the Twins could offer, other than more money. Might be hard to sell the Twins as his best shot at a title now either, especially if someone like Atlanta got involved -- and Atlanta isn't on his no-trade list...)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The Astros? They are $17 mil under the first luxury tax threshold (which isn't that bad, actually -- just a tax on the overage). And something like $52 mil under the third and highest threshold (the one where your draft slot moves down). The Astros are also not included on Greinke's 15 team no-trade list (while the Twins are). I wouldn't expect Houston to pursue him, but then again, I wouldn't expect anyone will ultimately give the Diamondbacks enough talent and take on enough of the contract to convince them to make a deal.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The Reds were hoping to contend this year, if not for the division then at least the wild card. It's why they acquired and extended Gray to begin with. I don't see why we should expect the last 3-4 months to have dramatically altered that outlook. And there's a huge difference between listening on Castillo and hoping for a blockbuster return and moving Gray for Arraez/Thorpe as you suggested.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Presumably a trade for a reliever would make it less likely that our 7th inning reliever gives up a 3 run HR, or that our 8th inning reliever would allow both a walk and a hit before the warning track fly ball which Rosario dropped, not to mention the double, single, HR, and 4 more runs which immediately followed the error... I didn't see Tuesday's game, but likewise, perhaps an acquired SP might make it less likely that our SP would allow 2 hits, a sac fly, and a wild pitch and passed ball all in the same inning before a fielding error?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    We need that dome field advantage!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. Magill's 3 option years were burned in 2013, 2014, and 2015.
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