Otto von Ballpark

Pitch in the FSL?

Unrelated, but the roster page also linked to the Rochester walk-up music choices: http://www.milb.com/content/page.jsp?ymd=20160408&content_id=171171974&sid=t534&vkey=roster Not sure how walk-up/entrance music really works for a starting pitcher, but I think Duffey is my new favorite Twin. I wouldn't mind seeing Dan Runzler's entrance song get promoted too, but I might prefer if it accompanied a different player.

Beresford has actually gotten starts at 1B and DH this year too. A lot of org filler types on that roster right now, like Britton (and Beresford, as much as we love him), it pretty much doesn't matter where they are listed or where they play, they really are just warm bodies to fill out the lineup. Regarding the 24 man roster, I imagine a lot of minor league teams play shorthanded like that at times. They have a 7 day disabled list, and it probably doesn't make a whole lot of sense to shuffle in another guy to take that spot for such a short time. Dave St. Peter's infamous downplaying of the 25th man on the roster is much more applicable to minor league clubs than MLB clubs. (Now, for a guy like Alex Meyer, who's not on the DL but hasn't pitched in a month, that's another story...)

Actually, I have encountered a similar issue using Chrome on Android -- very frequent crashes, even as I am reading a post and not scrolling or typing myself. It's not limited to Twins Daily, though -- pretty much any site with ads. My phone isn't the latest & greatest, but it's got 1 GB RAM and very few apps installed, but I suspect some browsers just can't handle the bevy of ad insertions on modern websites very well. Firefox performs better -- it doesn't suddenly crash, although it can get very slow, fail to fully load the page, etc. Firefox for Android has the added benefit of supporting add-ons, named uBlock Origin for ad blocking, and if I enable that, TD and other sites are all very quick and efficient, which points a finger at the likely culprit.

In any case, I figured out how to use BB code for basic tables thanks to this post: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/22417-article-stewart-and-harrison-quieting-critics/?p=479445 Although it would be nice to add styling like borders, highlighted rows/columns, etc.

Clicking on your username, then "My Gallery", then upload. Once that is done, you have to go back to your blog entry, click "My Media", and find your uploaded image. I just thought it was a little wonky compared to the normal uploading of images on posts, where it can be done right on the same page using "More Reply Options".

I won't push this tangent too much further, but there are a whole bunch of issues with those 2003 tests. They were done anonymously, for the purpose of gauging overall PED use in the sport, and individual results were never meant to be tied to specific players. And in fact they weren't. But then in 2004 government agents investigating BALCO seized data from companies which did the 2003 tests, which they believed could link the specimens/results with individual players. Various courts and judges then determined this was quite illegal and unnecessary, and required the BALCO investigators to return the data. However, after that, someone allegedly with knowledge of the results leaked a handful of names in 2009. It doesn't take any kind of conspiracy theory to see all kinds of problems with this. Since the purpose of the test was to be anonymous, how carefully were the original records kept to link individual players to results? Even assuming the separate records of the players and samples were perfectly kept in 2003, the "person with knowledge" who leaked a handful of names in 2009 -- did they connect the dots themselves to come up with those names? If so, was there anybody who was even able to double-check they connected the dots correctly? If not, did the data and/or names go through various permutations of the "telephone game"? Here's a little blurb that illustrates that and some of the other problems with those tests: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/court-ruling-03-mlb-drug-tests-article-1.401138 Simply put, the only "fact" is that someone leaked Ortiz's name in regards to the 2003 tests. It's somewhat less of a "fact" that he actually failed a test, and much less of a "fact" that any 2003 test he may have failed was equivalent to the testing which began in 2004. If the limited 2003 test result leak is your primary piece of evidence, you have a very weak case. Especially in Ortiz's case, where you have 13 years and counting of properly administered and documented (and increasingly expansive) passed tests since then, all while he's maintained his same excellent standard of performance. Even HGH, the more "advanced" PED, has had testing in MLB since 2012, and Ortiz has not failed a test in that time and has posted a 155 OPS+, actually greater than his mark from his first 9 years in Boston (145 OPS+). Even giving the 2003 test leak perhaps more credence than it deserves, I think the worst one can conclude about Ortiz is that he perhaps used very early in his career, but it probably didn't have a material effect.

Huh? Ramirez started with Boston in 2001. Ortiz was introduced to him before his 2003 test. Continuing to playing loose with facts like this seems rather irresponsible given the severity of these accusations.

Millar had a raw HR high in Boston, but it was a function of playing time -- his HR rate was no different that year than an earlier year with Florida. Varitek's "career high" was only by 3 HR, amid a long career of pretty consistent power hitting. Nixon hit 27, 24, and 28 HR from 2001-2003 in his age 27-29 seasons -- which one of those stands out as the "career HR hitting year"? Damon's HR rate in Boston was basically the same as in Kansas City. Mark Bellhorn hit 27 HR for the Cubs in 2002 -- not sure how hitting 17 HR for Boston two years later is key evidence for PED use... PED witch hunts based on relatively minor changes in HR totals went out of fashion some years ago, I think.

Interesting to bring up Millar, though -- he had a 131 OPS+ in 2002, and an even better 2001 (and it wasn't hard to see with traditional stats either, Millar topped .300 both years with 16-20 HR), but the Marlins were trying to sell him to Japan the same winter that Ortiz was released. Both appeared to be rather undervalued assets at the time! At least in the Marlins defense, they almost certainly were selling Millar for financial reasons, as opposed to the Twins straight up release of Ortiz.

Okay, this is just factually incorrect. Millar didn't have a "career year" in Boston, in fact his career OPS+ was 127 before he ever came to Boston, and his peak with the Red Sox was 117. His is almost the perfect theoretical aging curve. Nixon and Mueller had career years there in 2003, but that's about it for "career years" from Boston regulars in those years, so I'm not sure what your "etc" means. Nixon's in particular doesn't seem that out of line considering he was only 29 years old and had other good years too. Also, there was only one guy on that team who was "caught later", Manny Ramirez in 2009: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_suspended_for_performance-enhancing_drugs#Players_who_were_on_major_league_rosters Jeremy Giambi admitted PED use in connection with BALCO, although he was barely a footnote in Red Sox history -- he didn't even last the 2003 season on the active roster. I have no doubt there were PED users in that clubhouse, particularly prior to 2004, but I have serious doubts whether it was as widespread as you claim, or whether it was particularly more egregious in that clubhouse as compared to the rest of the league. Particularly as it relates to Ortiz, who has a long history of clean tests and consistent performance.

I don't know -- it was a weird statistical era. We were still coming down from "sillyball" which I think had offensive-boosting factors that went well beyond performance-enhancing drugs. I am sure players were a lot looser with substances back then, but I'd be hesitant to judge any player or team from just a stat line. And like I said, testing with penalties began in 2004, covering almost the entirety of Ortiz's Boston years -- if it was really a "pharmacy" in that clubhouse, wouldn't we have seen more failed tests? Manny failed in 2009, but he was gone from Boston and entering the bizarre denouement of his career at that point. Even under a stricter and more advanced testing regime, Ortiz is still dominating the sport at age 40. I don't think it's crazy to think he could have similarly dominated naturally at age 30. Heck, Ortiz has had virtually the same effectiveness from ages 36-40 (155 OPS+) that he had from ages 27-31 (156 OPS+).

A-Rod actually confessed to steroid use twice: publicly in 2009, covering his years in Texas (2001-2003), and again privately in 2014 in the DEA investigation into Biogenesis, covering the years 2010-2012. The only blemish on Ortiz's record is a report that he failed the supposedly private, nonbinding 2003 tests. He never admitted anything, and I don't think it was ever even reported what he tested positive for. Not saying that he did or didn't use, but it's a much, much different case than A-Rod. Testing with penalties began for players in 2004, so if Ortiz has used performance enhancing drugs to any great effect in his career, he also probably has the longest record for evading a positive test or any kind of discipline. This gets brought up a lot, and while Ortiz has certainly had hits off of or over the green monster, he has been a fantastic pull hitter in Boston. I have yet to see any stats to suggest that Ortiz's success is significantly more dependent on opposite field hitting than other great power hitters.

Generally agreed, although I think the Twins may already be past the decision point for Arcia. Looks like he's a backup, and soon could be a waiver candidate (they haven't even been using him as a bat off the bench, really, and this could mark the second corner outfield opening he's been passed over for in two weeks). Grossman has started all 11 games in LF since he was recalled, during which time Arcia has started only 3, all in RF (two games were Park sat, and one for Sano). Grossman is going to continue starting everyday, so the best we can really hope for is that Kepler plays over Arcia.

I think we are getting bogged down by semantics, but generally agree. Ortiz did have poor value (although not quite as poor as other posters often claim ), but lots of players have poor value at times. It's not necessarily grounds for immediate release. It was an unusual move, even at the time, even when the market didn't fully bear his likely arbitration salary. Even the budget-conscious Twins don't usually make moves like that. But they did it here, which suggests it had little to do with money, Ortiz's market value, or the presence of Mientkiewicz/LeCroy/Morneau. Bringing up those things only seems to excuse the Twins, and distract from the root causes of the unusual decision (causes which may still be at work in the Twins front office and decision making processes).

I wouldn't put it entirely on TK, though. He was probably just the highest profile Ortiz critic in the Twins organization at the time (at least through 2001). I am pretty sure Gardy, Ullger, and even TR weren't just following TK's lead, but actively shared his views. It's pretty well-documented that the Twins organizational structure of that era wasn't exactly conducive to finding and developing Latin American players.

Huh? - Mastroianni and his kind have been up before - Rosario is the latest in a long line of sophomore demotions (Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, etc.) - Kepler ??? -- he's back because we're short on outfielders again, remains to be seen if he will play - Grossman is far from our first waiver claim outfielder (nor the first to have initial success, see Schafer and Fuld, even Clete Thomas posted a ~100 OPS+ for a month in 2013) - Pressly and Tonkin have both been up quite often previously, and Rogers ??? -- we're pretty thin on relief pitching - Duffey was up last year - Dean is the latest in a long line of older low-ceiling AAA SP promotions (some of whom had solid short term results, like Pino, Albers, Devries, etc., and who can forget PJ Walters complete game, 8 strikeout victory in his third Twins start) - Centeno is just the most recent low-ceiling potential backup catcher acquisition/promotion (Fryer, Butera, etc.), and since his recall he's only started 9 of 23 games, at least 3 of which are directly tied to a Suzuki injury - Hughes to the bullpen is more about his health than his "scholarship" being revoked -- the player himself has publicly commented on his lack of stamina for a few weeks, moreover Hughes by far ranks the worst among qualified starters in pitches per GS Given our current predicament, I endorse many of these moves, but for the life of me, I have no idea what you see in them to indicate any kind of larger change in approach or shift in management philosophy.

Actually, Milone is a lot more like a left-handed Kevin Slowey in some ways. Dean appears to be something else. Career minor league numbers: Milone (mostly ages 21-24): 8.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9 Slowey (mostly ages 21-23): 7.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9 Dean (ages 22-26): 10.1 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.3 K/9 Milone's career AAA K/9 is 9.3. Dean hasn't had a season K/9 above 5.2 since 2011. Of course, given our present roster, it probably doesn't hurt too much to keeping running Dean out there while he's on a roll, although Trevor May deserves another starting look in this lost season before too long...

Interesting that Meyer has been on Rochester's "active roster" (not DL) this whole time. I wonder if that is to justify the option? If he went on the DL without pitching in a game down there, he'd have an open-and-shut case to be on the MLB DL instead and retroactively collect service time and MLB pay. Of course, now that he's missed a month, and Phil Miller's report suggests his current shoulder issues started with his last MLB appearance, I would imagine he's got a decent chance to recover that service time and pay anyway. I am sure it's on Boras's to-do list. And the Twins probably shouldn't care if they have to give it to him -- it's not likely to make much of a difference in his future arbitration or free agency cases, especially given his recent performance issues too.

Also sounds like a guy you don't pull from the rotation for emergency bullpen duty and completely mess up his routine....

It might have been a pretty mild strain, he only missed a week. The minor league disabled list is shorter so it can be used more liberally than the MLB one.

You're giving TR way too much credit here, I think. Despite his nickname of "Trader Terry" he doesn't have a reputation for making frequent trades or selling guys cheaply. (And where he has sold guys cheaply, like Scott Erickson, they have usually been veterans on expiring guaranteed contracts.) We've seen it recently with Fien, Milone, Duensing, Jordan Schafer -- TR is generally pretty committed to retaining arbitration players. I think it is absolutely possible that he either wanted a good return for Ortiz, or he was willing to release him, with no middle ground. In fact, not selling low in trade on guys like Ortiz is probably how he keeps his reputation as a tough trader. Again, I'll agree with the general sentiment that Ortiz was far from a hot commodity, but the circumstances of his departure from the Twins had less to do with that, or with money, than it had to do with the hubris of Twins management, judging a player more about his personality and non-conformity with the "Twins way" rather than talent, performance, value, etc.

So, what's up with Arcia? He's scuffling again, not playing regularly, 0-3 with 2 K's as a pinch hitter, out of options, and arbitration eligible this winter. Do people want him to play over Kepler or Grossman? Or are we just giving up? Should he get waived when Sano or Santana returns? Actually, he is currently at 2 years 80 days of service time. If he cleared waivers in the next month and got outrighted, he would probably fall short of arbitration eligibility this winter if we wanted to add him back to the roster at that time. Of course, he'd still be out of options next spring and could no longer be outrighted without his consent...

Here's the article with the Epstein quote: http://mobil.totalfitness4you.com/big-man-big-personality-the-oral-history-of-david-ortizs-mlb-adventure The rest of the quote sheds some light on why it took a month to sign him. Ortiz was playing in the Dominican that winter, and the team ran him through several workouts down there. And it suggests that his relationship with Boston coaches and teammates was a important factor in landing him.

The Twins signed Chris Gomez for $500k a few weeks later to be the BACKUP utility infielder (they were already paying Denny Hocking a cool million). The league minimum was about $300k. The difference between Ortiz's arbitration value and his "true market value" was something like Chris Gomez, or two league-minimum salaries. Another way to look at it, even after getting released, Ortiz still got a $300k raise over 2002. You are assuming a lot of things here. Epstein actually later said he talked with TR about trading for Ortiz but the asking price was quite high.