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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess it was hearsay. Although if the TV broadcast is on in the clubhouse areas, with the volume up, players could easily hear some of it directly if they pop in (to go to the bathroom, etc.) when they're not in the field or at bat. Or a bench/bullpen player could hear it and pass it along to his teammate. Or a friend or family member watching the TV broadcast at home. Or a reporter looking to stir things up...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Brian stated it more simply and eloquently, but this just isn't true. Almost everyone advocated signing a veteran outfielder in the 2014-2015 offseason -- no one wanted Hicks penciled in as the opening day CF again. The general disagreement was with signing a corner OF on his last legs in Hunter, which meant the only alternative to Hicks as opening day CF was Schafer, which wasn't really a move for the present or the future. And once Buxton struggled in MLB last year and Hicks was traded, there were a lot of sensible arguments this past winter for similarly signing a veteran outfielder so we'd have an alternative to Buxton/Santana/Rosario as opening day CF. The rest of your examples are similarly distorted. Folks may have wanted Buxton up to get a look last year, but that doesn't mean they wanted him to be the opening day CF this year after he struggled last year, etc.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey and Sano have generally played well. Polanco in very tiny doses....
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    To each his own, but the Tigers didn't even get a real tag attempt on him, by virtue of them being unprepared and out of position as Rosario got his great jump. To me, that suggests it wasn't particularly close/risky.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If not Fowler this winter, then Rasmus last winter....
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Has Rosario made any comment about the play? I see LaVelle at the Star Tribune called it "ill-advised" without really noting the play's success. Dozier listed things the team did poorly yesterday including "running bases" and I wonder if he too was referring to the Rosario steal. I think the MLB highlight label was more accurate, "heads-up baserunning."
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And not only was there no out made, it wasn't particularly close to an out. This isn't Miguel Sano rumbling for a triple. Plouffe's steal of third Monday night was closer to an out than this. This was a fast runner, watching the third baseman, watching the pitcher, getting a great jump and making a great slide, while the pitcher and third baseman had to play it pretty conservatively on the throw and catch just to prevent further advancement.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually we were down 4 runs at the time, but only in the 7th inning too. With two men on, it was already a save situation. Absolutely should not be an unwritten rule governing that. Plouffe stole his base down 5 in the 4th inning on Monday night.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Using 1961 as the start of the "modern" era, 10 teams have opened 10-29 or worse in that time frame, including an expansion club. Best finish was 65-97. Average finish among this group was 57-105. Beginning 10-29 or worse: 1994 SDP 65-97 (prorated) 1987 SDP 65-97 1998 ARI 65-97 2006 KCR 62-100 1981 CHC 60-102 (prorated) 1965 KCA 59-103 1988 BAL 54-107 1979 TOR 53-109 2013 HOU 51-111 2003 DET 43-119 13 more teams began 11-28, including a pair of expansion teams, and 6 managed to avoid 100 (prorated) losses, including the 1995 Twins! (Just barely.) Average finish 63-99. Beginning 11-28: 2006 FLA 78-84 1994 OAK 72-90 (prorated) 1969 CAL 71-91 2004 TBD 70-92 1999 FLA 64-98 1995 MIN 63-99 (prorated 1969 CLE 62-100 2001 TBD 62 100 2013 MIA 162 100 1962 WSA 60 102 2005 KCR 156 106 1964 NYM 53 109 1969 MON 52 110 That completes the rarer poor starts. 35 more clubs started 12-27 since 1961, including the Twins of 1981, 1982, and 2011. 3 more expansion teams (including the 1962 Mets). Best finish was 76-86. Average finish was again 63-99. Starting 13-26 (31 teams), we have our first .500 finish, the 1988 Padres at 83-78. Average in this group climbs to 67-95. Starting 14-25 (42 teams), we have our first playoff teams, the 1974 Pirates (88 wins) and 1989 Blue Jays (89 wins). Only one other .500 finish, though. Average finish 69-93.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think calculating series sweeps might be beyond my limited database skills. But I might try at some point. Meanwhile I will update my historical context thread: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/22436-2016-twins-record-in-historical-context/
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, on the steal attempt itself, with the low slide and tag attempt, there is a chance the throw gets past the fielder, or hits the runner and goes wild, possibly allowing Rosario to score and/or Suzuki to advance to second before Mauer even bats. And as mentioned above, once Rosario is at third, a hit or error that doesn't leave the infield would also score a run. A fast runner at third probably forces the third baseman to shift less and gives Mauer a bigger hole to hit through. Or if they stick to their shift, Rosario can take a gigantic lead and score on even the mildest wild pitch or passed ball. Are they massive rewards? No. But executed successfully by a fast runner, there wasn't a massive risk of making an out either.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Great point. With Rosario and his speed at third, that could change their third baseman shift too and give Mauer a bigger hole to punch through a hit.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Monday night, down 5 runs with one out in the 4th inning, Plouffe attempted a straight steal of third with Castellanos playing back. Plouffe didn't break for third until after the pitcher checked him then started his delivery to the plate, and he would have been out with a better throw from the catcher. As it was, it was a bad throw, it bounced under the backpedaling Castellanos' glove into left field, and Plouffe scored. A good aggressive risk to take with Castellanos playing back, which helped cause the bad throw, but it was almost certainly more a risk of an out, given Plouffe's speed and execution. And do you know who was standing at the plate while this happened Monday night? Rosario. I'd credit him for paying attention and learning a new trick to try again later in the series, even as the rest of his game was going poorly.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I figured Dean would get a starting shot before Meyer and May, which he basically did (Meyer's one-off start excepted). Notice how everyone is already assuming Dean will get multiple starts, until Gibson returns? Why didn't that happen with Meyer when we called him up? Oh right, we had to get Tommy Milone one last start before waiving him, then we had to get JR Graham up for a day, and let Phil Hughes average 60-some pitches per start. Priorities! Berrios did get a shot ahead of Dean which I did not predict, although perhaps only due to the retirement of David Murphy...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the video of it -- MLB titles it "Rosario's heads-up baserunning" http://m.mlb.com/video/v710269083?game_pk=447467 The free condensed game video has a wide-angle replay too, just after the 10 minute mark: http://m.mlb.com/video/v710633683?game_pk=447467 It's a little closer than a completely "free" base or defensive indifference, but he timed it quite well with the pitcher looking to home and coming set, and the third baseman not doing much of anything, and got in there pretty easily. With Rosario's lead, jump, speed, and slide, I think the only way they even have a chance to get him out is with a very low throw for a quick tag, which would have been very difficult to achieve And which would have had a decent chance of hitting the runner, getting past the third baseman, etc., perhaps allowing Rosario to score (exactly what Plouffe achieved on Castellanos on Monday night) or Suzuki to advance to second. Another potential benefit. (With the first baseman playing way off the bag too, Suzuki probably should have taken a larger lead once he saw Rosario breaking toward third and the throw going over there, in case the throw got away. That would be my only criticism of the play.) I really don't know what Molitor is thinking here. The risk/reward ratio of this decision was probably better than most of our bunts this year.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone would dispute that. He was pulled from this game immediately after the steal, though, which seemed like an overreaction. The demotion after the game was a long time comin' (and quite arguably overdue).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    When the base is unoccupied and it's basically free, I don't see why you wouldn't take it. And I think some people are minimizing the benefits of advancement there -- a runner on third scores on an infield hit, or a wild pitch or a passed ball, where a runner on second would not. It also makes it easier for the runner on first to advance into scoring position himself on a wild pitch or passed ball (although the runner was Suzuki, so it still wasn't likely). Down 3 in the 7th inning, those things still have value. Probably not worth the risk of a normal steal attempt, but again, this wasn't a normal steal. It was virtually a free base.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd say there would be the risk of a bad performance being seen as enough of a turnaround to convince them not to pursue other options in the off season (even bad might look good compared to this atrocious start). I guess that is a risk of keeping Molitor too.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Kinda surprising it took this long. I suppose it had to wait until they could acquire a caliber of player like David Murphy or Robbie Grossman.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    One potential FA catcher off the market: Francisco Cervelli signed a 3/31 extension with Pittsburgh.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. The Braves only have 6 sweeps, to go with their 9 wins. The Twins and the Braves each have one 2 game series sweep. I guess it's mainly a function of the Twins concentrating their wins in their 3 series wins, while the Braves have only one series win.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    It was just an example. I think Seth's plan of "play all the vets, hope to trade them in July, and then call up youngsters in August" is rather under-thinking it, that's all. It doesn't take a lot of thinking to know these vets and their contracts aren't going to bring much if anything in July -- just look at past trade deadline results. So why let that be such a big part of the equation?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand the theory of supply and demand. How does any of that apply to most of the Twins veteran trade candidates, who are guaranteed money well beyond 2016? Teams don't trade for multiple expensive years of average-ish players in July. Again, if you have any historical examples that say otherwise, please share, but textbook definitions of supply and demand don't say much about the real-world example of Twins players/contracts that we are discussing. Isn't this the most salient point? The magnitude of the theoretical increase, balanced against costs of salary and less playing time for prospect, is far more important than the simple academic question of whether it is higher in absolute terms. Maybe Plouffe could net an organization's #15 prospect on July 31st, while he could only net a #20-25 today. But it will cost the Twins an additional ~$2.5 mil in salary to keep Plouffe until July 31st, and it will cost them 2 months MLB playing time for their own #6 prospect (Polanco) who is out of options next spring. (Not to mention that there is risk in market factors not improving by July 31st, if more 3B solutions emerge around the league than new 3B problems develop, or if Plouffe tails off or gets injured -- a better return, or even any return, on July 31st is likely but not guaranteed.) It's much more complicated than you or Seth are suggesting.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You're assuming that players don't change their approach (intentionally or unintentionally) due to the conditions. In the FSL, power hitters might try selling out more in a futile attempt to hit HR and increase their K's; other hitters might try to hit the ball on the ground more rather than in the air. Pitchers too can throw differently to get K's and groundouts without the fear of the HR. I wouldn't be opposed to promoting a few of the better Ft Myers starters right now, but I'm also not totally sold on their numbers either.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Better make sure that's "morale" and not "morals" or we might get more than we bargained for...
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