Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    2012 was the first year of the rebuild. If it looked "stand pat", it was only because there quite possibly wasn't a single tradeable veteran on his inherited roster from 2011, and TR generally moves quite slowly and conservatively anyway, whether he is building, rebuilding, whatever -- you could argue most every TR season looks like a "stand pat" year compared to the year prior. If the organization expected to stand pat, reload and contend, they probably wouldn't have made the GM switch that offseason. They didn't trust Smith to be able to rebuild (indeed, he probably missed a few more chances to get it going during his last year).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Rochester has announced starters for the rest of the week, and again no Alex Meyer... Last press report I saw was this, from the weekend: http://www.startribune.com/twins-notes-mauer-out-call-again-shows-replay-catches-what-eyes-don-t/380339821/
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Sam Fuld?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Guys have already gotten hurt, slumped, and cut. And the playing time hasn't been there for most of these guys, in fact most of those spots are getting filled with new veterans who are often even harder to cut than the guys they are replacing (no options).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    We've heard this before, and it hasn't necessarily been true. Also, Chargois is the only reliever in Rochester right now who is on the 40-man roster. Boshers, O'Rourke, Runzler, Walden, Wimmers, and now Burnett are the others, plus non-40-man starters who could see MLB bullpen duty, led by Milone and Wheeler.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Considering that 78 wins is the absolute best finish for any team in MLB history starting 14-30 or worse, and the Twins are currently 3 wins under that threshold -- yes. (Although if you prorate to 162 games and ignore ties, teams in 1915 and 1927 could have finished with 79 wins, and a team in 1899 could have finished with 80 -- still all under .500 though.) 103 teams in MLB history (since 1901) have previously started 14-30 or worse. Average finish in this group, prorated to 162 games, is 59-103. 46 teams meet that criteria in the expansion era (1961-present), average finish is slightly better (62-100). 24 teams in the wild card era (1994-present), average finish ticks up a little further (63-99). Although again, the Twins are 3 wins under that threshold right now.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    We could eventually be looking at the following bullpen for your 2016 Twins: Jepsen (FA after season) Burnett (FA after season) Perkins (FA after 2017 guarantee + 2018 team option) Abad (arbitration this winter, FA after 2017) Kintzler (arbitration this winter, FA after 2017) Tonkin (can't be optioned, same as all of the above players too) And possibly if Gibson comes back, but Dean stays in the rotation, we could add: Nolasco (FA after 2017 guarantee) -- I assume it's safe to omit Nolasco's 2018 option, right? That's a rebuilding bullpen right there! Should clear up a lot of questions going into the winter... I hate to wish players to get or stay injured, but it might be bad for Perkins to return anytime soon and add to this short-term veteran logjam. (To be fair, Burnett was probably signed because of Perk's latest setback, although I wouldn't be surprised if he stuck around after Perk's eventual return.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    How about for a team that's 11-33?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Barely. The only guys to bump (option) in the pen right now are Rogers, May, and Pressly, all who need MLB evaluation opportunities heading into the offseason. And once added, Burnett can't be optioned himself, so he's potentially taking ~3 months from one of those guys, or Boshers, Wheeler, or Dean (if he's pushed out of the rotation), etc.. A team and player don't sign minor league deals with 15-20 day opt out clauses for "AAA depth". It's to get a look at the player for possible MLB promotion. We'll see if the Twins evaluators disagree with the previous 3 organizations that have cut Burnett loose the past few months.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Albeit four AAA teams, so far.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine if you don't want to call up Chargois today (although rostering Burnett will make it more difficult to roster Chargois in a month or two too). But what exactly is the upside or the end game with a signing like Burnett in a lost season? He almost certainly can't be traded, and he brings no team control beyond 2016. Stopping the bullpen bleeding might be nice, but if it means Burnett finishes out the year here, that's a lot less evaluation opportunities for guys who might have a future here, from the top guys like Chargois down to Rogers. Jason Wheeler might need a look, he will be Rule 5 eligible again if not added back to the 40-man roster. Same with O'Rourke. Even Buddy Boshers, if he somehow worked out, would offer a whole ton of team control, like Fien circa 2011. Oh, and the most obvious candidates to be optioned for Burnett are May and Pressly, both in their last option year so we'd like to get as much data on them as we can, even if it means riding some MLB struggles. Letting Burnett take those reps, like Duensing before him, only makes it more likely we won't have a cohesive bullpen strategy in the offseason and into 2017 again.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Wild card era, prior to the 2016 Twins, no team had started exactly 11-33, although two have started worse, the 2006 Royals (10-34) and the 2003 Tigers (9-35). Hey, the Twins won the division both of those years! The last team to start exactly 11-33 was the 1987 Padres, who "rebounded" to finish 65-97 -- the absolute best finish in MLB history for any club with 11 or fewer wins in their first 44 games (22 clubs in total, dating back to 1901).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The quotes about contending don't bother me. It's the actions that totally back up the quotes, where short term veteran stability usually trumps the future -- no playing time for Kepler, Polanco, Meyer, or even much for Berrios. No starts for Trevor May. The commitment to short-term guys like Plouffe, Suzuki, Jepsen, David Murphy, probably Sean Burnett soon, Pelfrey, Duensing, and Boyer last year, etc.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins couldn't potentially afford a $20 million per year player, beginning in 2017, if they had wanted? The Twins committed $97 million for 7 pitcher seasons, the month that they signed Ervin Santana and extended Phil Hughes. $100 million for 5 years, for a pitcher they like with a better track record than either Ervin or Hughes circa 2014, was absolutely possible for this club. I think the mistake was deciding, in 2014, that they had to keep Phil Hughes for 2017-2019, to the point they were willing to sacrifice a very nice below-market contract to do it. Once Ervin was signed, they had a ton of veteran starters under contract for the next few years. But when they also extended Hughes, they basically removed all the flexibility from that group, and their best shot at getting any excess value from one of those veterans too. Giving all that up because you have a fear of paying $100 mil for 5 years for a pitcher down the road is probably a bad decision.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it should have anything to do with the quantity of "statheads". It's about the quality. And odds are, the most quality "stathead", and the one most capable of leading and directing that department to actually gain a competitive advantage over other teams, may not have emerged from your ticket call center a few years ago. Do the Twins even have a barometer for judging the effectiveness of their current stat department? Have they ever employed or even interviewed an outside stats person? At the very least, they should aggressively hire a new outside stat guy or two now, and let them work semi-independently for a while to judge their respective performances and compare them to the performance of the current department.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    We've been over this before. There were a lot of interesting catchers available during that time, some quite cheaply. Francisco Cervelli and Welington Castillo are the first two names that come to mind. Neither was perfect, obviously, but both were cheap and both would have been perfect partner candidates for Suzuki, and potential replacements, but evidence suggests the Twins didn't even entertain the idea of augmenting Suzuki at the position until a full year after signing his extension. For a rebuilding team to commit so fully to Suzuki after an outlier performance, early (months before the open market that winter), with nothing but Fryer/Herrmann/Pinto in reserve, with an eye toward waiting ~3 years for the likes of Turner or Garver to emerge -- it doesn't take hindsight to tell you that's a bad strategy.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    He had a decent spring training with Washington -- 8.2 shutout innings, 6 hits, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 7 K's. 2.4 GO/AO ratio according to MLB.com: http://m.mlb.com/player/430634/sean-burnett?year=2016&stats=career-s-pitching-mlb Then an iffy couple weeks with the Dodgers AAA team: 7.2 IP, 8 hits, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 5 K's. But a 2.6 GO/AO ratio. Then a couple better weeks with the Braves AAA team: 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 BB, 5 K's. Again a 2.6 GO/AO ratio. Still not encouraging that he's been dropped by 3 teams in the last two months -- I think it would be almost impossible to flip him in trade in a couple months, seems like everybody has already had multiple chances at acquiring him for free and passed. The fact that his last two minor league deals have been with the Braves and Twins suggests declining interest from better teams. I have nothing against Burnett and similar reclamation projects, but given the late point in the season, that lack of market value, our likelihood of getting back in the race for 2016, and that he is a free agent after the season, there is almost zero upside to this move for the Twins.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    So upon closer inspection, Burnett's season is kind of insane. His 2016 contract status from Baseball Prospectus: You've read that right, folks -- Burnett opted out of 3 minor league deals in a month and a half. My only question is, how did he not find Minnesota sooner?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    This really should be in the major league forum. When you signed a minor league deal with an opt-out after 2-3 weeks, you are pretty much guaranteed a MLB promotion if you want it, no? David Murphy, Robbie Grossman, and now Sean Burnett. I guess the question is, who will Burnett replace? Probably Trevor May or Ryan Pressly, both have an option left and have struggled. Problem is, Burnett, like Kintzler before him, can't be optioned, and we're almost signing him too late to flip at the deadline, and Burnett will be a FA again after the year anyway. So he could very easy block someone, delaying the debut of someone like Chargois and contributing to another offseason of bullpen uncertainty...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I haven't seen any opt out date reported in Duensing's Orioles deal. He might just be a AAA pitcher now?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, in a "stand up" move, Bremer should have been less specific about the timeline, so as to clearly not implicate a present Twins player. Not that I have a ton of sympathy for the player who did this, but Bremer's method of revealing it is probably tarnishing a bunch of innocent guys. (Not a huge deal either, compared to the team's performance, but not exactly appreciated.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't it have been more "stand up" of Bremer to not mention it at all? By saying it happened but refusing to name the player, he has invited speculation about a bunch of probably innocent players. If I was Dozier right now, and I didn't do it, I'd be a little annoyed that Bremer brought it up at my lowest point, inviting the speculation. If he still absolutely had to make the point with an example (debatable), Bremer could have simply referred to an incident of personal outside pressure without suggesting it was a Twins player involved. That would have left open the possibility of just about anyone doing it, perhaps even someone not directly affiliated with the team, maybe an agent or relative, or heck even an opposing player (isn't Dick sometimes paired with another announcer when the Twins are of Fox Sports 1?).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Lew Ford's MLB power was of the line-drive HR to left variety. Dozier has him beat there. And Ford's only lasted about a calendar year -- even before the end of 2004, any threat of power was pretty well neutralized, although his speed and approach kept him going a little longer. Say what you will about pitchers adjusting to Dozier, but his power lasted for over 2 calendar years until this recent dry spell. Ford is still going for the Long Island Ducks, and he will turn 40 in August. I wish he re-appeared with the Twins in the last 5 years over some of the suspect outfielders we've run out there.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No, I think he means Twins management may change after the season.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Mauer was awful while we were winning in May 2015 too, 63 wRC+. His overall line this year (101 wRC+) is pretty much identical to his 2014-2015 production (99 wRC+), so whoever expected him to produce like a core player in 2016 is probably more to blame than Mauer himself. Likewise, Dozier is at 66 wRC+ so far for 2016, which isn't far from his 73 wRC+ mark from the second half of last year. Again, the problem might be the expectations than the player himself. Plouffe has played the least of these three, thanks to injury in April, so while his 76 wRC+ appears to be well below his career average of 99, or even his second half mark of 92 from last year, it is mostly a function of the Toronto series so far. After last Wednesday's game, Plouffe's wRC+ still stood at 110.
×
×
  • Create New...