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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. If he is added back the 40 man, we will still control him. Of course we would have to offer arbitration or make him a free agent anyway...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if the interviewer transcribed this incorrectly. Would be interesting to hear in podcast form.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I will say, kudos to the Twins for calling up Chargois instead of Sean Burnett! Burnett does have an opt out coming up on June 15th. I guess I wouldn't be opposed to cutting Jepsen and adding Burnett on that date. Although Burnett's Rochester stats aren't all that impressive, I suppose there could be a better use of the spot (and the $1 mil we'd owe him if we called him up). I probably wouldn't want to take innings away from relievers who might have a future here. Wheeler might deserve a look. Or maybe an extra bench player?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. They'll have to drop someone whenever Perkins comes back, but it could easily be Mastoianni. But they don't have many other guys in need of a 40-man spot. Logan Schafer and a bunch of pitchers, most of whom we've cut before (Albers, Darnell, Milone, O'Rourke, Wheeler, plus Sean Burnett). I guess some guys, like Arcia, could become 40-man casualties because they are out of options and we need the 25-man roster spot. But we're not quite at that point yet.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite. In addition to Pressly and now Chargois, Boshers and Rogers can also be optioned.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    What exactly is he trying to say, with that comparison? The importance of winning is highlighted more in our market than in NY? Twins fans aren't as passionate as Yankee fans? I don't get this at all.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    So May and Hughes to the DL, Gibson to the rotation and Chargois called up? Dean is still in the rotation, and the bullpen is still without a long guy. But good to see Chargois, and hopefully May comes back strong as a starter.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Salary was no consideration in the Herrmann-Palka swap. In some ways, Fowler was a salary dump too -- the Astros exchanged his ~$9 mil salary for Valbuena's ~$4 mil. Plouffe is making $7.25 mil. He might get you a Palka (who is interesting but isn't that well regarded as a prospect, in some ways like our own Adam Brett Walker), or maybe he might get you another team's salary dump, but primarily he is going to get you salary relief. Same for Milone at $4.5 mil and in the minor leagues. Packaging them together would actually reduce their trade value, I think. Few teams are probably able to pick up the remaining ~$8 mil tab on those two combined, and those teams will probably aim higher. I still think the Twins will probably have to eat some salary to get anything back of consequence for either of those two players. Which if TR's history is any indication, means we won't get back anything of consequence for them. At best, 2 months salary relief and a fringe prospect. For Nunez, salary isn't really an issue, so he should be able to net a Palka or two or even a bit better (almost certainly not a top 100 type prospect though).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, I don't know if this is really true. He was never ranked in any of the "big 3" lists, despite being eligible for such lists for 6 years, up until his 24th birthday. The Yankees promote aggressively at times, but Nunez basically repeated both A and A+ levels, and spent full seasons at AA and AAA before debuting at age 23. He was pretty consistently a .260-.280 hitter, 90-something wRC+ hitter throughout, except for a .322 AVG, 116 wRC+ blip at AA. Not a bad young player, could become a decent starter for awhile, but not really a "hot prospect". I think he just got a lot of attention from the Yankee hype machine for a bit -- Nunez's .322 season at AA just happened to immediately precede Jeter's first big decline year (.270 AVG, 90 OPS+), leading to a lot speculation about him taking over the position.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    One complicating factor is that the same Twins leadership is still in place, and in some ways they seem to be operating the same way (under-utilizing a Dominican slugger like Sano, etc.). The Ortiz decision was 14 years ago, but the climate hasn't changed much.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Rudy Hernandez is the MLB assistant hitting coach, from Venezuela. Ivan Arteaga is the AA pitching coach, also from Venezuela. Henry Bonilla is the A+ pitching coach, born in El Salvador but grew up in Nevada. Does seem pretty light, especially on the Dominican side. Everyone knows the Twins were poor at signing Latin players prior to Sano, but they also seemed fairly poor at relating to them / integrating them into the team. And it feels like that might be continuing with the most recent rookies.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Top 100? That's not happening. Zach Davies wasn't even that level, Sickels didn't even have him in his top 175 entering 2015 or 2016 (although the latter, he did get a mention among "others in the picture" although Sickels went a little overboard listing 145 additional players in that category!). Maybe we could get a project reliever (or two) like the Braves just got for Kelly Johnson: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morriak01.shtml
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, I didn't say anything about not being happy day to day, or celebrating in life. But for the Twins, this is like a poorly run company seeing its stock price plummet, but having a big organized company celebration for every day their stock price doesn't fall further (even though it's barely above a penny a share as it is), generally instigated by the top executives/officials that are most responsible for its current poor condition. At least run off a little winning streak before you do that. Maybe once after a long tense losing streak to let off a little steam, okay. Celebrate a big performance for a particular player, especially a rookie, sure. But after every win, no matter how ugly? When you are winning 1-2 games per week? Seems a tad much. Actually, it seems like a bunch of guys just aimlessly copying what they thought Torii did as a "team leader" last year.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Career ERA+ as a starting pitcher when they signed with the Twins: Nolasco: 94 Hughes: ~91 Santana: 99 Milone is at 97 career right now, which isn't really surprising given his age and minor league record. Baker was 102 with the Twins, Slowey 90. Correia was 89 for the Twins. No doubt the Twins went through a SP dry spell for a few years there, although in part compounded by their own action/inaction, but it also seems beyond dispute that the Twins overreacted the other way by locking up big years and money to 3 guys delivering performance levels that most teams can find cheaper (and even the Twins of the last few years have been finding them cheaper but unable to play them, most notably Milone and May).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Figured it was time for an update, with the Twins sitting at 18-41, although sadly the outlook hasn't changed much. No team in MLB history has finished with more than 67 wins after starting with 18 or fewer wins in their first 59 games (although 1994 Oakland was on pace for 72 when the strike happened). The 2012 Padres started one win better at 19-40 and finished with 76 wins, which is actually the best finish ever for teams with 21 or fewer wins in their first 59. No team in MLB history has finished .500 or better with fewer than 23 wins in their first 59 games. Worst playoff team start at this point in the expansion era was 24-35 (2005 Astros). Expansion era, 25 teams had between 17-19 wins in their first 59 games. Average finish was 61-101. Worst Twins start at this point was 1982, at 13-46. 1995 we started 17-42. 1981 we started 18-40 with 1 tie. Finishes prorated to 162 games: 63-99 (1995) and 60-102 (1981 & 1982).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the degree of the celebration is the issue. Teams don't pile up on the field, or spray champagne in the clubhouse after every win regardless of context. The dance party feels a little too close to the that, for a team in our position. We're on pace for a 49-113 record, for Pete Redfern's sake. The alternative isn't moping, it's just doing your job. Save the victory celebrations for when you are winning at a rate commesurate with something close to a respectable MLB team.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally agreed, although it does appear like two infielders will need to be traded/injured in order to get Polanco meaningful playing time this year.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I do believe I had you confused with another poster there. There has been so little public discussion of Stewart's character that I conflated the two. Still, I'd be wary of judging anyone's character based on the interactions you described. So he doesn't open up with fans standing around outside games and practices, that isn't necessarily a character issue. And it says nothing about how he might interact with his peers/teammates and coaches.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not looking for anything "exact" just comparable financially, which you have yet to find. Milone making $3 mil more than these guys is important, because teams looking at a guy like Milone and not someone better are probably cheap and would definitely resist a trade over a couple million, just like they resisted claiming Milone in the first place. Like our Plouffe discussion in the other thread, that roadblock probably melts away if the Twins throw in a few mil cash, but there are no indications that the Twins are considering such a move right now. (There actually isn't much evidence to suggest they will consider it late July into August either which is troubling.) Hence, Milone's trade value suffers compared to cheaper players in a similar position.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? What the heck are you responding to here? I never "ignored the rest of Plouffe's work" and I never said that the first 2 months of a prospects career tell us nothing. Plouffe's career tells us he is a fairly low upside guy who may not even be worth his arb award this year and next in the current 3B market. And 2 months of a prospect can be good info, better than nothing but its not as good as 3 or 4 months. Also, it is important to take the opportunity when it is available. What happens if we delay all this until August 1st because we don't want to send a couple mil with Plouffe to offset his salary between now and then, and then Polanco or Escobar suffer injuries over the last two months? Or even more likely, TR still can't work a trade until late August and now you're down to basically a September call-up, and Polanco still might be fighting with Escobar, Santana, Nunez, etc for playing time. There is a cost to delaying things, probably more than offsetting whatever modest gain Trader Terry thinks he is getting from his conservative trade stance. Simply put, the guys relevant to our future are healthy now and ready to experience everyday MLB action. The guy who isn't relevant to our future is unlikely to see his value shift in the next two months except due to his decreasing salary obligation. There is no better time to eat a little money to get things moving. Maybe the Mets would have still preferred Kelly Johnson, but do you think TR was on the phone with them and opening to sending along $2-3 mil cash? If not, that is a problem.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought we debunked your overheard conversation from what was allegedly Kohl Stewart's family?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Arcia DFA'D when both Santana and Sano are back (assuming they want to keep one of Buxton or Kepler in MLB at that point too, and they haven't moved Plouffe yet to clear 3B for Sano).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, there might be a comeback in some of these guys, but what does it mean for the Twins? Particularly short-timers like Plouffe or Jepsen. They could bounce back to their career norms and it will mean practically nothing to the Twins future. As far as Dozier and Hughes, most observers have no problem with Hughes to the pen for a bit, and I wouldn't have a problem with Dozier to AAA if the team insists it can't unload Plouffe yet (although ideally he should already be a Met). Neither of those actions precludes a comeback benefitting the Twins, just gives us more data about potential replacements for those two in 2017 should a comeback not come to fruition.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The White Sox are nothing if not aggressive, they just DFA'd Latos today (even after Shields' debut).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but the poster I quoted and was responding to made that claim. It appears Reusse provides some numbers to back that poster up in this most recent article, although his numbers now differ from what was previously reported: http://m.startribune.com/sano-not-exactly-downsized-but-ready-for-switch/367162191/
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