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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Just that they should sign and do so relatively cheaply, because they have no real leverage -- they can't opt to return to school.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Wimmers has to be the 26th man, because he was optioned just a few days ago. So he is literally just an extra arm for today.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Gray is a FA after 2019, actually. B-Ref says 2020 because that will be his first FA season. So, 2.5 years of control for Gray.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't even know what you are trying to say anymore. Uehara's ERA is currently under 3, and a 3 ERA is a pretty arbitrary line anyway that doesn't really correlate with effectiveness or value (Duffey is at 3.03 today, for instance -- is he not a worthwhile addition to the Twins pen?). Blown saves for middle relievers like Blevins are pretty meaningless without context. Blevins has 4, all before the 9th inning, of course, and in none of them did he leave with a deficit (just ties, and his team won 3 of those 4). In fact, he hasn't caused a deficit for his team all season, and he's had a higher average leverage than any Twin except Kintzler, so he's coming into a lot of close games. And I'm not necessarily advocating that the Twins should have signed Blevins, just trying to show that opportunities weren't quite as dire as you were suggesting. And a MLB front office isn't like a fan making picks. They can't just abstain if there aren't obvious solutions -- it's their job to find those solutions, obvious or not. The combo of Belisle and Breslow has been a predictably bad effort in that regard.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Jetry Blevins, Matt Albers, Yusmeiro Petit -- I don't know if you really researched this.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Only $1.3 mil over slot. Still pretty high, though.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Is it an evaluation year for Belisle and Breslow? They're a combined 73 years old. What about adding Chapman, Mickolio, Melville, Wilk, and Heston since the season began? Do they get to jump the evaluation line ahead of Bard, Curtiss, etc.? How about Wimmers, Tepesch, Rucinski, Wilk, Tonkin, all of whom have been "evaluated" in MLB this season and found wanting, yet still occupy AAA roster spots that could go to strong AA performers?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    We're primarily talking about promotions to AAA here, so 40-man is irrelevant. Could be as simple as moving a guy up from AA to AAA, and simultaneously moving a guy down from AAA to AA. They've already moved guys down from AAA to AA to rotate more scrap heap guys into the AAA mix, it seems like it wouldn't be that hard to do it again to move a solid performer or two up from AA. Gonsalves for Pino? Bard or Curtiss for Mickolio or Wimmers?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Your assumption is correct -- players with 5+ years of service time can't be sent to the minors without their consent, which is extremely rare (Anibal Sanchez consented this year, I suppose just to get more innings). I can't imagine they are holding onto any trade delusions about those two any more. I'm guessing they still think Belisle can help, but even the Twins haven't been using Breslow for multiple innings or in any kind of leverage situations, which is basically saying he's not of any value on the field. They must like his off-field contributions, though?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like Southern League all-star game is this coming Tuesday June 20. I guess even the calendar theory should produce some movement very soon. (Although it would have been nice to give a couple of those guys a better shot at the AAA all-star game in July, or even to help the MLB club by then...)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I just posted this on the minor league forum, but maybe it's more on-topic here: When you have a billion doubleheaders coming up, it probably pays to look at SP possibilities more than a couple days in advance.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    When you have a billion doubleheaders coming up, it probably pays to look at SP possibilities more than a couple days in advance.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Appel already went back and did pretty well (in the draft anyway!), which suggests maybe it's not a new phenomenon. Aiken went back and didn't do as well (although didn't do that poorly in the draft either). I'm far from a draft expert, though!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    July is 2 weeks from today, but the parameters of the situation have been in place for a month-plus already (and some of its ill effects may already be visible at the MLB level). And as baseball discussions go, this one is plenty calm, thanks.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say anything about treating him with disregard, or giving him ultimatums. He was drafted around his projected slot, what's wrong with offering him slot and letting him think about it for a couple days? The player and agent don't have an automatic right to always ask for and receive a little more, with the justification that the extra amount isn't important enough to sink the deal. Now, I'm guessing it's a nominal amount here, maybe a result of having money left over, but that suggests something about our draft strategy didn't go quite as planned. (And that doesn't mean it was a bad draft either, it's just interesting to discuss.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Gonsalves is one guy. There are 7 others at AA with solid cases for a AAA promotion as well. And I'm not talking about promoting all of them at once, or even half of them, to the point where affiliates would really notice. Are you telling me not one of them is worth moving up to AAA before July? As far as replacements, there are several at AAA with solid cases for a demotion to AA. Heck, we just traded Wheeler for cash and cut Chapman, either of those guys could have been assigned to AA instead, if finding replacements was really a concern.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Granite's K and BB rates are pretty consistent, and probably worth judging at this point. I suspect his ISO will come down. Will be interesting to see what his BABIP does.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    After hearing the Wright buzz for the last few weeks, and seeing his over-slot deal with the Braves, plus McKay's rumored bonus with Tampa, I was wondering if part of the Twins strategy was kicking the tires on as many guys as possible at #1, to hopefully inflate their values and give other teams less financial flexibility. Obviously there are limits to this, but I think draft bonuses are often more art than science, so it's something to do at the margins when there is no consensus top pick.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, and what's the point in waiting? Specifically in the case of Breslow, he's only pitching short relief in low-leverage situations anyway, which would be the perfect opportunity to ease in and evaluate younger arms.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I feel like this is something they'd say about every player. "If he was ready" being so subjective as to make it effectively impossible for most guys. I do agree we are likely to see Gonsalves in September, though -- he will require a 40-man spot by November anyway, and he got a late start so innings shouldn't be a concern.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally, no. I think they could do it, but it would require giving him MLB service time, both going forward and possibly dating back to his original DL date (or maybe even his option date, if the option was withdrawn?).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Not about Romero, but -- When a certain player gets called out as deserving a promotion, we often hear "the club knows what's best for these guys, maybe there is a specific thing they are working on with a specific coach, etc." But then it seems to apply across the board to everyone, and we hear generically that "the club doesn't move up guys until midseason, after the draft." I believe the former is a pretty rare circumstance, and the latter is the most common case, but it's not a terribly inspiring way to run a club, even acknowledging that a lot of clubs do it. There are basically 8 pitchers at AA who have a good case to get a test at AA, and very few guys at AAA who seem to be earning a spot there, much less deserve any consideration for a MLB spot appearance. Seems kinda silly to hold every single one of those AA guys back until July, just because of the calendar or because it would require finding some org filler to backfill their vacated spot.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco never came up that long in 2014 or 2015. He came up 4 separate times those seasons, for the following number of days each: 4 2 1 3 That's 10 days total over those 2 years. And he started 4 MLB games during those 10 days too, plus 4 other appearances, so he wasn't completely parked on the bench. April/May 2016 he spent more time on the MLB bench, as did Kepler. But not the previous two seasons.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Second paragraph:
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    True, Rooker was not a senior, but if he declined to sign this year, he would have to be a senior draftee next June. It would be difficult for his performance over the next year to improve enough to offset that. So not zero leverage right now, but not a whole lot either. Rooker was ranked 45th by BA, and 50th by MLB. I guess he was 29th by Minor League Ball. Slot at 35 seemed more than fair. I wonder if the Twins realize they will have a bit of money left over, so they can add a nominal bump for a guy they're familiar with...
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