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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Gee is still listed as starting today, which means he wouldn't be able to start in MLB on Tuesday. Really wonder what they are planning there... Colon should really have another AAA tuneup. I guess Jorge could do it again, but that is not too inspiring...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Haley has to be activated within 10 days (he's already been on rehab for 20 days).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    "Houston, we have a problem."
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Brad Miller is the Rays 2B when healthy, which he is again. Not much of a defender, but he had 30 HR last year. They also have Tim Beckham hitting well, just acquired Adeiny Hechavarria, and their top prospect is another infielder Willy Adames who is hitting pretty well at AAA. I don't see them making a big move anywhere, but especially not in the infield. The Brewers would be more likely, but they probably won't mind betting on Villar to bounce back until Sogard comes back soon. Like most contenders, I think their primary target will be pitching -- 3 of their top 6 starters are on the DL right now. Ervin might be of more interest to them, but probably because of a perceived lower price than, say, Sonny Gray. I could see them just renting a Feldman or Cahill, though.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    No.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    We've heard that for awhile... once he gets comfortable after his late start to the season... the AA midseason break... the MLB all-star break... but still in AA. At this point, it feels like they are trying to keep Chattanooga strong for their playoffs.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Poster drjim had the theory it is pitch efficiency. Gonsalves is averaging more pitchers per batter faced than Romero or Jorge. Perhaps a sign that he won't be able to put away advanced batters. He's only gone 4 and 5 innings his last two times out, despite 90+ pitches each time. I'd probably guess that this is the Twins FO line of thinking too, although perhaps it's a little too strict? I've found several other AA prospects who have already been promoted to AAA (and even MLB, in one case) who had similar pitches-per-batter-faced averages this season. And a AAA challenge wouldn't really cost anything, and might illuminate any problems (and hopefully solutions) better than more AA work.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Oblique strain. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rangers-reportedly-lose-cole-hamels-for-eight-weeks-with-oblique-strain/
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there has been plenty of denigrating of Hahn and White Sox. To the extent they are lauded now, it might be simply recognizing that he is changing his previously failed strategy.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, I'm not sure many/any deals have come together in quantity over quality in recent history, at least not for a guy like Quintana. Even the Hamels deal was basically 3 top ~100 guys, plus Eickhoff who almost immediately slotted effectively into the Philly rotation. The Twins don't have an elite guy, and they don't even seem to have multiple pieces in the next tier. History isn't much of a guide here to say what the Twins could comparably offer, so I'm going to assume that either A. we couldn't make a comparable offer, and/or B. making a comparable offer with what we had would in fact have emptied our system to an uncomfortable degree.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The Pineda news certainly makes their need clearer. But it could push them to go bigger after Gray or Cole. There are a few guys still on the market that teams absolutely have to deal. Feldman and Cahill are doing well, and there's a few more like that who are at least eating innings. Expiring contracts, on teams going nowhere. If I was a GM, I'd probably either aim big or just wait out the must-trade guys, rather than haggle with the Twins who have their own clear utility for retaining Santana for 2017-2019.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, it's a pretty small sample of total ace FA signings. From this list of the top 78 most lucrative MLB contracts, only 14 have been FA contracts for SP -- and this dates as far back as Kevin Brown, 1999, and as low as the recent Samardzija and Zimmermann deals, which really weren't "aces" and weren't really at prohibitive amounts for most teams: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/ There was a particular lull in the mid-2000's, it seems, as most of the best SP of that era were old (i.e. Clemens) or young (pre-FA). Even the big market teams weren't signing many FA aces during those years. I think that's what made Sabathia so special in 2009. And there's nothing particularly magic about the "top 10" in revenue, the next ~8 teams seem to be within 10% of the #10 team, and they seem to rise and fall in that range partially based on on-field success. "Bottom 3" might be more meaningful? Florida, Tampa, and Oakland seem to be the only clubs who have no hope right now of ascending to the 10-15 range.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I feel like option #1 would not be forthcoming from these Yankees. Adams might be likely to get called up instead. #2 might be closer. I don't know much about the other guys but I feel like Sheffield plus one interesting guy might be the limit. Keep in mind that Ervin himself is posting his worst FIP in 5 years, and he's only a ~3.90 ERA guy since April. The Yankees seem to have that already in Sabathia, Severino, and Montgomery, and Tanaka and Pineda certainly have that potential and would seem likely to get the opportunity. Cost-benefit wise, they may prefer to either aim higher than Santana if possible, or roll the dice on internal options and bargain pickups instead? EDIT: Pineda might be out for TJ surgery. That would certainly up the Yankees desire for a veteran starter.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm guessing that has changed a bit by now? There are more scouting groups and they seem more decentralized. And of course there is MILB.TV, so you don't have to take someone else's word for it if you don't want to. I mean, the idea that Theo Epstein has a specialty for putting lipstick on his prospects, in general, seems a bit much. The Red Sox and the Cubs have produced tons of talent.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Here are some ace FA signings and the Forbes ranks for those teams in revenue Greinke, Diamondbacks, 2016 (~24th, behind the Twins) Scherzer, Nationals, 2014 (13th, within 10% or ~$23 mil of the Twins in revenue) -- largest FA SP contract in history at the time Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, 1999 (11th 2000) Clemens, Blue Jays, 1997 (17th in 1998) They predate Forbes' lists, but in 1993 the Royals signed Cone and the Astros signed Drabek...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Watching Ron Davis "highlight reels" in Room 101, IIRC.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that his younger brother Casey Rasmus also retired unexpectedly early in 2014, albeit as a minor leaguer of relatively little regard: http://archauthority.com/2014/06/11/cardinals-minor-leaguer-casey-rasmus-retires/
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it just clarifies that he's not on the restricted list for punitive reasons, or any reason that might be in dispute.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. See here, from March 2015: https://www.thescore.com/news/715374 I'm guessing the hip injury just moved up the timeline by a season.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, a player needs to spend 20 days on "optional assignment" to actually burn an option year. Although next week would be a little early, they could call up Gonsalves in the near future and option him back August 13th, and recall him September 1st when rosters expand (whether he pitches again or not) and not burn an option year, for example. I don't think it's likely, but if they were considering it, they could give him a look in early August and still have the ability to send him back to the minors for a few more starts without necessarily burning an option year.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The link does say "if they don’t open the second half of the season with strong play." So I don't think they would necessarily be willing to trade Hamels today, with their current record. Also, the Rangers have a similar record as the Twins, but they may have much worse playoff odds thanks to their division, as illustrated by the Fangraphs "coin flip mode" playoff odds: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current Actual projections / season to date stats seem to favor the Rangers, of course, although they involve quite a bit of subjectivity.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, you could make a case for it. But there is little evidence that you could get an actual GM to consider your case. If Javier, Romero, and another piece was enough to get this done, Quintana would have been traded months ago. Looks quite like the White Sox instead waited until they could get what they consider an elite prospect. And the Twins don't have such a player.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It appears MLB Pipeline only published a top 50 list in 2011, so it's pretty suspect to claim that being unranked in that is equivalent to being unranked in a top 100 list today. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/16498518 Also, it appears Sano did reach #36 in that top 50 list in 2011, likely in a midseason update: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. Check out their Fangraphs pages -- Jimenez has scouting grades of 50/70 for game power and 70/80 for raw power, as compared to Javier's 20/45 and 30/50. Javier is not bad, of course, but his prospect upside is more like Nick Gordon. And it takes a pretty huge discount when he is 2-3 years away from that, and still hasn't left rookie league ball. A lot of uncertainty yet whether he will even reach that point, much less how he will someday transition to the majors. Which is all to say, you'd need more than just "another piece" to make up the gap between them.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If the link doesn't work for you, I am pretty sure it means you are in violation of one or more of John's voluminous conditions. Posting from Canada, or close to Canada, or with a Canadian accent? Ineligible. Have you ever "volunteered" to start a game thread? TD considers you an unpaid employee and thus ineligible. Perhaps you have someone living in your house, unbeknownst to you, 3 months of the year, who has already entered? You better believe that makes you ineligible. Turns out only one person is eligible, by the name of "Bohn Jonnes." Looks a lot like our esteemed site owner John but with a mustache and sombrero. Not what I would have imagined based on the name, but in any case, he wins all the prizes.
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