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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    But on the flip side, Greene didn't necessarily know yet he could get $7.2 mil at #2. That was in part set by the Twins signing Lewis for $6.7. Let's not forget, when Lewis signed, it was a record bonus for the bonus pool era (2012-present). Hypothetically, if the Twins had managed to sign Lewis for Swanson ($6.5) or Moniak ($6.1) money, that would have probably wiped off a few hundred K from the other guys too. With the presence of Lewis, Greene, Gore, McKay, and Wright bunched together in that top group, I don't think any one of them could have drawn a hard line in negotiations at #1 at $7.5+ mil. By the time they get to #3, they can't realistically do better than $7 mil, and at least 3 guys from that group were going to drop to #3 or lower. More likely, they could all argue they deserve approximately the same bonus regardless of draft position (which appears to be what happened).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Even Pelfrey had a 10.4 K/9 in his first taste of AA, at age 22. It did drop quite a bit at AAA (6.8) then of course in MLB (5.1).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If you take a look at the 2012-2016 drafts, you will see some real examples of saving money in the top spot to spend elsewhere. The slot values changed for 2017 which made that strategy much more difficult, so I'm absolutely not criticizing the Twins for not doing it. My point is, it wasn't expected to happen, and given what we know, it didn't really happen. Lewis was pretty much a straight up #1 pick, took a largely straight up #1 bonus, and he looks like a perfectly fine selection. On the flip side, I also obviously disagree with the notion that the Twins were cheap in this draft. They spent approximately the same as anyone else in that position. So ultimately, the Twins don't deserve any early extra credit or criticism for draft strategy here.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    How is that me overthinking it? I know Lewis was included in the top group of draft prospects, and signed quickly for a comparable bonus to the others. If anything, claiming Lewis's bonus was critical to the rest of our draft strategy seems like it is "over thinking it". Assuming we didn't touch our ~$700k overage allotment, we didn't ultimately need/use the modest savings. He was just a straight up #1 pick.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect that a lot of these guys just leave most of it to the agent. That's what they are paid for, right? If the agent knows the parameters under which the player would sign at various slots, they don't really need to communicate much else until it's time to sign. And it is possible/probable the Twins had something in place with Lewis and his agent IF they picked him #1, but hadn't fully committed to doing that yet. And back to my original point, it was easier for the Twins to do that at #1 than the teams behind them doing it. Put another way, I suspect Lewis helped set the market for the following picks. Regarding Lewis's "shock", I suspect it was figurative/exaggerated/coming from a "long view perspective" if that makes sense. I mean, it was widely reported in the day leading up to the draft that Lewis was in the running for #1. Even if he wasn't entirely sure, I doubt he was actually surprised by the outcome, other than "still can't believe it" kind of shock. I'm sure Oscar winners often express similar sentiments -- but they were already one of only 5 nominees for the award...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Except it is quite possible they didn't ultimately need the savings to do the rest of that plan. I have no issue with the Lewis pick, but I don't think we can really give them extra credit for it.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    2, I think.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    He is going to try pitching weekends. Thought it would be in Fort Myers, since his military work was going to be in Florida, but maybe he got a longer break here and was able to travel to Cedar Rapids?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although he wouldn't necessarily be in Minneapolis, as it would be the MLB all-star break too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth brings up a good point in today's minor league recap thread -- Granite was already named as a starter for the AAA all-star game. Happens during the MLB break too. It would be pretty un-Twins-like to pull him from that for a MLB bench assignment.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It is not a matter of holding one back, there just aren't any more available relievers on the 40-man. And I am not criticizing the decision at all, I am excited to see Granite and they have plenty of relievers for the next 2 days. I was simply responding to the discussion about how long Granite is likely to stay in MLB on this call-up. Hard to tell at this point.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Like it or not, Turley is still starting, so who knows whether he was even considered. And he basically started on Tuesday, which would be cutting it a little close for Saturday availability. He has only once appeared with less than 4 days rest this year, and that was after a 12 pitch relief appearance. I think Granite has a chance to stick around a little longer, but I was just pointing out there weren't really any other options for the next 2 days either. If they don't want to bench anyone for Granite, they could send him back in a few days too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Hand is #4 in relief innings this year, #3 in appearances, after having led MLB in both categories last year. With the leverage and effectiveness, it doesn't feel quite right to call that just "a pretty good setup man" as if that combination of performance and usage is fairly common. It's pretty much all-star caliber in modern MLB. With 2 more years of control, there could be more opportunities to flip him too depending on team performance. I don't think Rosario would ever be considered a top trade market candidate, based on his current performance level.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Hand was mediocre as a starter / mopup man 2 years ago. That means very little today. Rosario is an everyday LF, but with a clearly league average-ish bat. His Rbat in MLB: -5, -4, and 1 so far this season. That's not really a great asset on its own, especially not to the Padres. An aside: I do wonder if Rosario will be Super 2 this winter. He will finish with 2 years, 120 days of service time.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Twins didn't really have a rested reliever they could add today without making a 40 man move, except Randy Rosario again. So if they knew the could option Jorge, then Granite or another position player was really the only move they could make. That could change soon, though -- they will need to add Haley back in the near future, and they might inexplicably want to add back Breslow too. Pressly and Boshers could still go back down, we'll see.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no quarrel with the idea they were executing a specific plan. I just take issue with the assertion that Lewis's bonus was integral to the rest of the plan.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry if I wasn't clear -- I am objecting to the idea that Lewis's bonus was critical to the rest of the plan. Thought that was clear from the article and context of previous posts. I have deleted and reposted it, for clarity.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Mild correction, but Hand was claimed off waivers fairly quickly last year, he was never released. And I'm not sure how relevant that is anymore -- his performance and peripherals have dramatically improved in a year and a half since. And it's not his fault that the Marlins never really committed him to the pen. And he's a reliever, but one who has already shown an aptitude for handling one of MLB's highest volume bullpen workloads, and at fairly high leverage. The WAR might come out similar, but I think Hand would be considered more valuable. Even with 4 years of control to Hand's 2, I think Rosario might have higher projected arb salaries which neutralizes that a bit.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you watch Arcia in the minor leagues? Here is what Sickels said about him before 2012: "Excellent power potential, but I don't like the problems he showed with the strike zone, 18 walks/70 strikeouts in 292 at-bats." https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/9/2479433/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2012 Before his rookie season of 2013, Sickels called him "a masher" and "a Venezuelan Jason Kubel" and that is roughly what he eventually became (keep in mind that the league batting average fell about ~20 points between their respective Twins careers, and K rates went up). https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/29/3568278/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2013 We see minor league "hitters for average" fail to transfer that to MLB all the time. We also see minor league SS, C, and CF never sniff those positions at the major league level all the time. It's a difficult game at the MLB level. I'm not going to assign personal blame to someone who struggled at it a bit, within the range of reasonable expectations. You can still be disappointed that he didn't do better without calling him a knucklehead over it.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, Greene signed today for $7.23 mil.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I never said it can't happen. But the buying team generally has to pay extra to make it happen early. That is why they are rare, the buyers generally aren't willing to pay the steep price. What exactly do you see the Twins giving up for Hand? He might be the top reliever on the market. If you want the Padres to forego the July bidding, you will probably have to offer up Gordon, or maybe Romero or Gonsalves plus another piece.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    This article says we had $66k left, and 3 players unsigned between rounds 11 and 20: http://m.startribune.com/twins-shift-draft-money-allotment-to-help-sign-more-players/432574743/?section=sports%2Ftwins
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    If they spent their whole pool, they still may have left money on the table. Teams can exceed their pool by up to 5% and only pay a tax on the overage with no future penalty. For the Twins, that would be about $700k, and would have more than covered the bonus difference between Lewis and anyone else in this draft.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Heard it here first... and last!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Greene signed today for $7.23 mil.
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