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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    We're all on the same page about the odds of a Dozier deal, right? Like, 1% this month?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Considering Sogard was a minor league signing in the offseason, after Villar had a 117 OPS+ last year, I don't think that it indicates they're giving up on Villar.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but a lot of that was Chase Anderson, who is now injured for 4-6 weeks.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    If you only look at the extremes, it's an easy decision. If Duffey is doomed to repeat his 2016 ERA as a starter? Sure, put him in the pen. Or if he can repeat 2015? Starter, no prob. Or if Duffey is going to rebound to his early season 2017 effectiveness in relief? Sure, he could be a pen weapon. But I think the reality is more muddled. Given his profile, I think he probably settles in closer to average in whatever role we put him in. In which case, there is still definitely an argument to be made for trying him in the rotation again. Kinda wish we had been more aggressive with, say, Hildenberger already, and kept Duffey stretched out in relief better, and it might be an easier transition. At this point, I am pretty sure they're not going to bother making the change before the end of the season, which is disappointing because it could have helped inform our offseason planning a bit better, in regards to FA, Trevor May, etc.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone here has made any mention of trading Duffey.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Dozier is only a 97 wRC+ on the season (106 career), average defensive metrics, 30 years old, 1 more year of control at $9 mil. He would definitely be an upgrade for some teams, but probably not enough of an upgrade to draw an aggressive offer in trade. Jed Lowrie is almost certainly available from Oakland, he's having a better season at the plate and has a $6 mil team option next year. He's probably target #1, and I don't expect to see any major 2B deals before he is off the table.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure the Brewers would be looking for pitching. They might look to upgrade at 2B too, but probably modestly/cheaply. They probably expect Villar to bounce back a bit (he was good last year, and he's still pretty young), Perez has been pretty good as a utility guy, and Sogard was on an out-of-nowhere hot streak until he just got injured.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry to revive the thread, I had just noticed Forsythe's hot streak and remembered he had been discussed as a tangent here.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. I found myself consulting the Fangraphs prospect lists this past winter a lot too, for that reason.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    It might seem like overkill, but I also like Sickels' super long lists (175-200).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, and Alvarez has plenty of time to get back on track. BA still has him at #60 after a pretty difficult first half too. But it does seem like he had a bit of helium this past offseason.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Another problem for Gonsalves and Romero is that there isn't really a clear line at 100 or anything. There probably isn't a meaningful difference between 85 and 115 most of the time. That's why I like Sickels' grades a bit more than straight-up rankings, although looking across a couple lists is usually decent shorthand.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, since this thread's last activity, Forsythe has been on a hot streak. Up to a 102 wRC+ now, ahead of Dozier's current 97. Still based on a lot of walks, but the ISO has started climbing too. Appears to have reclaimed the regular 2B job, although they could still use him for spot starts at 3B.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Walker Buehler at #17 highlights why the Dodgers would have been hesitant to include him in a trade this past winter -- just a ton of potential to rise quickly. Verdugo and Calhoun have risen too. On the other hand, De Leon was definitely a sell-high. Alvarez could have been one too...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Guerrero Jr. is actually pretty close to dominating -- he's got a 151 wRC+ this season. And it's not just BABIP, he is actually walking more than he is striking out! Plus he just turned 18 a few month ago, and is playing 3B not OF. Not surprised at all to see him ranked #2.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but since we had the top pick, we also had an ability to negotiate (in specifics) and commit early to a selection, a resource that no other team had. It appears we chose to spend that resource on Lewis, and it may have been as much of a factor in his quick signing as anything else. But had we wanted to, it's possible we could have used that advantage to lock in another player instead. Crediting them for getting the player they wanted AND getting him to sign a little cheaper/earlier than the following picks could be doing a bit of double-counting -- one of those factors probably followed from the other. In any case, it's way too early for there to be any meaningful "bottom line" to this draft. That will only come after these guys actually play in the pros for awhile.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    On the subject of Haley, I guess he should be a candidate to be dropped from the 40-man this winter too. It would seem odd after keeping him on the roster all season, but it's certainly possible he could clear waivers then, depending on how the season plays out. Teams will have a lot of their own prospects/players they are trying to protect at that time.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. They got away with it last winter because Thorpe had missed 2 whole seasons and was a bit of a wild card. But now he's back, he's still left-handed , and he's missing bats at high-A and almost 22 years old. He could have been a justifiable Rule 5 pick last winter; this winter, I think he could be a very good one.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that it's fair to says his career path has been determined primarily by him being a "knucklehead". I don't doubt he did knuckleheaded things from time to time, but his minor league success with the Twins was built on high BABIP, it's not that unsurprising that it didn't really translate to the majors, where the K's naturally rose, the BB's naturally fell, the BABIP naturally normalized, and the defensive issues were naturally exposed. That's why he rode the waiver carousel last year and finds himself on a minor league deal this year.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    None of them signed for that much more than Lewis, ~$300k (pending the announcement on Greene). Last I read, I think we spent our entire pool, but we could have easily gone that much over and just paid a tax with no other penalties. Selecting someone other than Lewis wouldn't have necessarily affected the rest of our draft strategy at all. I'll admit it's nice to see Lewis signed and starting well, but there isn't too much to analyze here yet. It will all come down to performance and results, and it's just far too early to make any comparison there.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    To your list, I'd add the following possibilities to leave the roster, depending on how they finish the season, of course: Palka Boshers Busenitz Pressly Perkins is already "off" the 40-man, in the sense that he's on the 60-day DL. Same for O'Rourke, and I doubt he will get his spot back after the season. In that line of thought, Trevor May will need to be "added back" after the season too, so that claims one of the opened spots.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Referring to Rule 5 and the DL? It would happen. Nobody is passing on a Rule 5 pick anymore because they need a few more months of TJ rehab. The most notable example is the Braves and Daniel Winkler a couple years ago: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103811648/with-eye-on-future-braves-take-winkler-in-rule-5-draft/ And the general Rule 5 DL strategy is no secret anymore -- three 2017 Rule 5 guys have been on the 60-day DL the entire season so far. Even a guy like Zack Jones, the Brewers used the 60-day DL and a rehab assignment for extended evaluation before returning him to the Twins. I'm sure some of those health situations were not entirely planned, but I think teams are pretty aggressive about looking for them too. Even the Twins put JR Graham on the 15-day DL for fairly generic reasons a couple years ago, and seemed to be pretty quick to DL Haley this year too. Injured guys who struggle and miss multiple seasons like Wimmers or Bard are often safe. But a legit prospect, who was performing well but just had TJ surgery? I think teams protect them now, basically 100% of the time. Burdi might be a bit of an edge case -- he already scuffled in 2015, and missed a lot of 2016 -- but unless the scouting really diverged from his early season performance this year, I'd have to think he would be a lock for Rule 5 selection this winter, if left unprotected.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps zero. As of now, Jax would be Rule 5 eligible after the 2019 season, which could be the same summer that his 2 year commitment expires. Might be a silver lining for him? He might have a good chance at a 40-man spot (if not a 25-man spot in Rule 5) for 2020, regardless of how well he adapts to pro ball. He also got the full 3rd round slot bonus in 2016. He probably wouldn't have had the leverage to be selected as high and given full slot had he been drafted in 2017 with the new rule in effect. So he's still getting some benefit of the old rule, even if it's not on the field.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, he's probably a no-glove AAAA player, at this point. Not much value in keeping him on a 40-man roster, much less a 25-man like when we cut him. Although good for him that he's at least rebounded at the AAA level -- remember how much he struggled there in 2015? His current 183 wRC+ leads all batters above A-ball by a decent amount. If he keeps that up, I could see him getting a cup of coffee in MLB again.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    How many MLB players of value are traded at the beginning on June? It's rare enough that unless you have a specific offer to overwhelm the trading team, I'm guessing they will hold on to any good players (like Neshek and Hand) and wait for the market to develop in July. You can sometimes find scuffling buy-low types like Sam Dyson around that time, and since a shaky first appearance with San Fran (against the Twins, no less), Dyson has been pretty good, and in high-leverage situations too. We probably should have picked him up, at least to take Breslow's spot. The Rays are pretty much even with the Twins and the other wild card contenders right now, so they probably aren't selling for less than top value, which could be pretty high given Odorizzi's record and future control. Also, Alex Cobb is the soon-to-be-free-agent on their staff, and I think Tampa would do their best to move him before other assets.
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