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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's pretty much the exact bet they already made in 2015 and 2016 and it failed each time.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    At least with Kendall, they are pretty close. They had Kendall at #6 among draft prospects.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, I think you are assigning a precision to this that just isn't warranted. Kendall could be ranked 120 without any meaningful difference in assigned value from the guy ranked 86. At that point, we're really talking a lean rather than anything definitive. And with scant pro resumes, I have no problem leaning based on pre-draft evaluation instead of a handful of month-old draft slots. For that matter, while Kendall was selected 23rd overall, it isn't even clear that a majority consensus of MLB teams would peg that as his absolute value among draft prospects. I am sure MLB draft boards are far from identical, especially after the top 5 or so. For all we know, a few of the top and bottom teams in the draft may have pegged Kendall around 10-15 just like Pipeline and BA did but didn't have an opportunity to select him. Heck, a few of the teams picking 6-22 may have had him that high too, but just behind their own special cases. As a hypothetical example, the Brewers were apparently higher on Hiura to pick him 9, but who's to say they didn't have Kendall close behind him? Big picture, it would even out, of course, but we're not talking 100 slots here. It wouldn't take much to move a guy down ~10 slots or whatever. While it's absolutely worth noting divergent opinions, and I'm glad gunnarthor posted the draft slots next to the rankings here, I see nothing in this particular ranking that should "strain credibility."
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Or that Dick Bremer is reporting inaccurate information. I just watched the video, the umpire does glance down at Molitor's lineup card while he is retrieving his own card, but this was just after they spoke, before Molitor writes on it. Isn't on Molitor to look over at the umpire's card? Or simply ask to see it after the ump has written it down? Not that the umpire should be sloppy, but Molitor is the guy with the vested interest in the outcome of the move. (Bremer too, I guess ) Heck, Roberts actually came out to talk with the umpires as the switch was happening. Molitor probably should have made it his beeswax to go over there and make sure they were all on the same page, and the whole matter could have been avoided.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Kendall is at 86. For all we know, Beck is at 101. Is there really a significant difference there? It's basically equal with a tiebreaker. Before the draft, MLB Pipeline had Kendall at 6 and Beck at 9. Kendall is a college guy who is almost 3 years older than the high schooler Beck too, so it's hardly an apples-to-apples comparison. Hypothetically, maybe they believe Kendall has enough of an advantage in floor to make up for Beck's advantage in ceiling or something? In any case, I value a different viewpoint on the matter, as opposed to MLB Pipeline quickly throwing their own opinions out to strictly adhere to draft/bonus order. For what it's worth, early pro results don't look good for Beck either -- obviously too early to make any conclusive judgements from it, but maybe it's enough to lean on their pre-draft rankings as the tiebreaker rather than draft/bonus order. If they are still sticking to Kendall a year from now, when actual performance data suggests their original evaluation was wrong, then I'd take issue. Right now, I appreciate the different opinion.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Gibson is at $2.9 mil now. Milone went from $2.775 to $4.5, but he had a decent year. Depending on how he finishes, maybe $3-4 mil? In the unlikely event that he doesn't reach 4 years service time, and he is in the same service time cohort as last year, maybe he gets the same salary ($2.9) or a small cut?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe the Twins should start a volleyball team? We could bring back Corey Koskie to coach!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It appears the Twins don't want to do too much to upset the Chattanooga juggernaut this season. Hence, external backfill for Rochester.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I can't imagine $200k really matters in terms of the prospect cost. Occam's Razor says the Braves wanted to get rid of him a bit, the Twins wanted to add him a bit, and they compromised to make it happen. I suspect largely independent of the other trade parts.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that anyone particularly cares, but if Gibson fails to return to MLB for 20+ days this year, I think the Twins will get an extra year of control on him. I think he is at 3 years, 152 days now. So he still needs 20 more to reach 4 years.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And by "desk", I mean the hood of my car.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    And if he wants to learn the outfield in MLB for the Twins, he should be a full-time infielder in their minor leagues.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Santiago's first rehab start is tonight with Rochester. Berardino reported he will make 3 such starts, which could put him in line to return around August 9th. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-hector-santiago-scheduled-for-three-rehab-starts/
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer to the 10 day DL again. Shoulder inflammation this time (earlier this season it was back spasms): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/angels-place-alex-meyer-on-10-day-dl.html
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, yeah, I figured it out after the updates yesterday and today, so all is good!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually did email last week about the "thankyou" link not working, and the unclear original promotion start date, and received no response.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. The Braves selected Reckers contract just 3 days ago, and optioned him today: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/braves-anthony-recker-sent-back-to-minors/
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Boston had zero incentive to accept a cheap trade for Haley. They get him back now as a solid young-ish AAA depth starter who doesn't require a 40-man roster spot for another 2.5 seasons (with presumably little risk of being selected in Rule 5 again ). As a Twins example, see Aaron Slegers -- what incentive would the Twins have to sell or trade him cheaply to another club right now?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler's $800k was worth more (inflation). Also he is a position player so we had more confidence in his health and projection. And Kepler dominated his age-19 season in Elizabethtown, on his way to an AFL appearance at age 20; Ynoa, not so much, so far this season.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Crasnick/ESPN has that backwards. Heyman and Bowman say the Twins pay everything except $100k which was sent by the Braves: https://mobile.twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/889598980119810049 https://mobile.twitter.com/mlbbowman/status/889596697784991744
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Arrieta always sucked for the Orioles. 77 ERA+, peaked at 89 in his rookie year. Gausman had a 118 last year, and is still at 95 career even with his poor 2017 numbers.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Baltimore is resisting selling altogether, and there would be no need to sell low on Gausman anyway right now -- he's controlled for 3 more years after this one.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not a chance. They are probably looking for Giles/Chapman/Miller level returns. There's no rush on Cincinnati's side, Iglesias is controlled for 4 more seasons beyond this one.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right, somehow the Royals have $100 mil already committed for 2018 despite all those pending FAs. Hosmer is a Boras client and Boras has talked of cashing in -- I have to imagine he will try to parlay his solid season into a longer contract. Cain and Moustakas both previously signed multi-year deals to avoid arbitration, so they would seem more likely to re-up with KC somehow. They do have some contracts ending after 2018 (Soria, Hammel, Moss, Wood) and 2019 (Gordon), so in theory they could sign someone this winter to another backloaded deal. But yeah, they're in a far tougher buy-or-sell position than the Twins right now!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Garcia is pretty much what some were hoping (realistically) for Santiago earlier this season.
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