Otto von Ballpark

While getting anything back for Kintzler seems better than getting nothing for him after the season, it should be noted that Watson isn't a great prospect, and some have already predicted he will wind up in the pen himself. It's quite possible that Kintzler will provide more MLB value in the next two months than Tyler Watson will accumulate in his MLB career.

With Verlander, the salary is part of it. But he also has a full no-trade clause, which means he can refuse any waiver claim as well as any trade. But I also don't think the Tigers are going to give him up for nothing, unless they knew he was hurt (and teams don't get to review medicals before making a waiver claim). Assuming he's healthy, the Tigers would probably want to eat some salary and get good prospects in return right now. If not, they can hold on to him and try again next year (competing themselves and/or shopping Verlander again).

They made multiple trades based on one bad week of play leading up to the deadline...

This is ignoring a lot of context. Think of the strikeout explosion in baseball over the last 10 years. Think of minor league run scoring differences like the FSL (Garver's high-A league) versus the Carolina League (Gimenez's high-A league). Fangraphs wRC+ is usually better than raw OPS or slash lines for such comparisons, although even that isn't perfect -- in the minors it adjusts for league but not park, and of course you should always look at the components to see if something flukey is skewing it. That makes it look quite a bit different. Gimenez seemed to dominate the lower minors, but he started his pro career earlier and got to repeat A-ball. He also put up his best season by wRC+ with an outlier 22.3% walk rate in AA. To put that into context, the only qualified batters that topped that rate in MLB the last 25 years are Barry Bonds and 1998 Mark McGwire! It happened for Gimenez, but it wasn't a sustainable path to that level of success going forward. Moving up to AAA at ages 25-27, Gimenez had some of his career worst minor league performances, only posting 101, 106, and 118 wRC+. By comparison, Garver had a 136 in his AAA debut last year at age 25, and is at 154 this year at age 26. Additionally, Gimenez never came close to the .245 isolated power that Garver is posting in Rochester this year either, except for his stint in the high-A and high-scoring Carolina League -- 4.69 runs/game, compared to 4.25 in the IL this year and only 3.73 for Garver's high-A league, the FSL. Moreover, Gimenez's home ballpark in the Carolina League was Kinston, a team which scored a whopping 5.63 runs per game, blowing away the rest of the league -- a park adjustment might be needed there? FWIW, Rochester is actually below league average in run scoring this year. Gimenez was also striking out in ~26% of PAs in his first couple AAA seasons, in leagues with a ~18% K rate -- this was before the strikeout explosion. Garver is at 23% this year, but in a league at 21.1%. And beyond stats, note that Gimenez failed to crack Sickels' top 20 Indians prospects lists coming off either of his two best minor league seasons (2007 at high-A, 2008 at AA). Garver doesn't fare well by prospect lists either, but Sickels had him at 15 before the season. It's worth noting that Gimenez wasn't born a backup catcher -- and there are plenty of limitations scouting minor league stat lines -- but you won't convince me Gimenez was a superior hitter to Garver coming out of the minors.

Here's MLBTR keeping track of players who have cleared waivers: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/players-that-have-cleared-revocable-waivers.html Only reliever right now is AJ Ramos, and no realistic SP yet. MLBTR had another article about the Braves putting Jim Johnson and R.A. Dickey on waivers, and I didn't hear about a claim on them yet, so perhaps the above list needs an update?

Sure, I was mostly referring to last offseason, when they actually did hold back on adding more options.

A technicality, but -- spring training invites are also called "Non-Roster Invitees" (or NRIs). Thus, a player on the 40-man roster doesn't need to be "invited" to spring training. He can just show up. But I'm not one to stand in the way of etiquette either!

FWIW, Gee is likely a free agent after the season. Just needs 30 more days service time the rest of the year, which seems fairly likely at this point. He should still be signable for 2018, but if he shows anything down the stretch, he only gets more expensive, primarily in terms of a guaranteed roster spot and perhaps assurances about his role. (Meaning, he might not want to sign here to be the 7/8 starter if he has a chance at 4/5 somewhere else.) Gee can also refuse an any optional assignments to the minor leagues, so he may not be stashable in AAA (although he has apparently consented to being optioned this season). Melville would have all 3 minor league option years remaining, although he will be eligible for minor league free agency this winter if not added to the 40-man roster.

Hopefully we give him a lot more 3 inning save opportunities!

But that kinda hinges on one's definition of "contribute". By bWAR, Boshers was a zero last year, and is only at 0.3 this year. Hopefully that trends up, but right now it's within a rounding error of nothing at all. Not that I disagree with your larger points. I don't mind signing guys out of indy leagues, and I don't mind giving them chances, although right now, in a pennant race, is a tricky spot for new tryouts. (One could argue that Boshers has been a bit of a detriment to that end in 2017, as he is a fairly old/known mediocrity taking a roster spot and innings that could have gone toward evaluating Turley or Melville in relief.)

Both first career grand slams too! (At least, Dozier's first in MLB, and Granite's first as a pro. Dozier hit 2 grand slams in the minors in 2011.)

It has nothing to do with "options" (assuming you are referring to minor league optional assignments remaining). Garver is already on the 40-man and thus "burned" an option when he was sent down out of spring training. Although since it is Vargas' last option year, maybe they are trying to "get their money's worth" out of him? You would figure we already know what we have in Vargas, and it isn't particularly good or versatile...

Not as good odds as you would think. The Twins already tried it in 2015 and 2016 with basically the same group and it failed pretty spectacularly both times. My take is, given what we've been starting with, there's not going to be a shortage of available opportunities in the pen. So don't hold back so much on adding more options.

Boshers has generally been a very low-leverage reliever this season (gmLI of .67), so I'm not sure this means he has been all that useful. Although he has had a few moments. They seem to be going LOOGY with him now? 4 batters faced total, across 3 appearances, in the month of August so far.

Those weren't the only alternatives. We just traded away Jaime Garcia. We also still have Dillon Gee. Hector Santiago could be activated any day now. Tyler Duffey could be stretched out too. I wonder if Colon's former teammate (and AARP buddy ) R.A. Dickey cleared waivers? Not world-beaters, but some of those guys should keep you in a game better than Turley demonstrated earlier this summer, or Melville demonstrated in 2016. Personally, I still think they should have looked at Romero instead of Jorge back when they had those spot starts in early July. He had the best potential, and there were still ways of managing his innings if necessary. Now we're reaching the point where Jorge and Gonsalves predictably are deemed not ready, and Romero is rapidly becoming less available due to his innings limit.

If that's true, and not just spin -- that is really, really worrisome. Every one of those guys had already demonstrated pretty extreme volatility, with missed seasons, mediocre performances, etc. Chargois was the only one who was both healthy and decent in 2016. That's not to say cut them, but don't count on them -- certainly not to the point where you'd pass up on a Greg Holland opportunity, or sign Belisle and call it a day because you want to "reserve" multiple spots for this group to fill. We'll see what they do this winter, though. That will probably answer more questions about their previous offseason's strategy than anything the FO would say publicly right now.

To be fair, I doubt the poster was referring to Kintzler. Turley, Boshers, and the prospect of Melville.

I too hope Turley gets a look in the pen eventually, but there is no denying he was awful in his 3 starts, and we lost all 3. Melville was similarly awful in 3 appearances in MLB last year. When you're on the edge of a pennant race, these are big risks to take.

Sounds like Fangraphs "coin flip mode" playoff odds: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current That is, flipping a coin for every game, irrespective of roster. Our odds are notably lower using season stats to date or projections.

I doubt there are any contenders out there who would have any interest at all in Belisle as closer. He might be a general pen addition for someone, though, likely in exchange for "cash considerations" (like Neal Cotts a couple years back).

For some perspective, Phil Nevin hit just as many HR in a Twins uniform! For those like me who were too young to pay close attention in 1987, it appears Baylor had a pinch hit single to drive in the go-ahead run in the 8th inning of ALCS Game 1: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN198710070.shtml But then the big one was World Series Game 6. Go-ahead RBI single in the 2nd inning, game-tying 2-run HR in the 5th, and an intentional walk and run scored (on Hrbek's two-out grand slam) in the 6th: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN198710240.shtml

Here's a great duet for the next "Karoake with the Twins front office" event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9shCDAnHulg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMbIipvQL0c

Just read those articles, a week late... Longenhagen doesn't like our second Garcia trade so much. Among 69 prospects traded at the deadline, he ranks Littell #50 and Enns #63. He doesn't assign a specific FV to either, but they are well down in the "40 FV and lower" group so it's quite possible they still didn't break 40. Neither was ranked in Fangraphs' top 33 Yankee prospect list back in March (which I think ranks all of the 40 FV and better prospects in a system). He liked Moya most of all, 45 FV and ranked #19. Moya wasn't listed in his offseason Diamondbacks prospect article, so he's definitely been a fast riser this season. Ynoa was #22, near the top of the "40 FV and below" group so likely 40 FV (what he had last offseason). Watson, #40. Again not ranked in the Nationals prospect list preseason, so perhaps still below 40 FV?

Oh sure, just cut Littell off in the middle of his acceptance speech!