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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I have been warming to him, but Gordon doesn't strike me as the kind of prospect you play service time games with. Of course, that cuts both ways -- he may not be good enough to move quickly to the majors either. With Dozier, Escobar, and Sano starting in the infield, and Polanco due back soon, I don't think you bother with a Gordon promotion yet. Maybe at the trade deadline if one of those guys is dealt. Wade was a guy they could have been more aggressive with -- repeating AA was kind of silly -- but glad to see him in AAA, and another interesting younger guy in Cave starting to get the available MLB reps right now.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco was already on the 40-man for Rule 5 purposes when we first called him up.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Enns has missed a rotation turn yet this season, with the possible exception of his time in DFA limbo over a month ago. Jaye was sold to Cleveland a couple weeks ago, May has been in relief the last couple weeks, and Baxendale is a reliever too who has just led off some bullpen games (a lot of doubleheaders?). Bencomo is no great shakes, but he's on a roll and there is certainly an argument to be made that he is better than Enns right now -- keep in mind Enns is 27, with a 7.1 career K/9 at AAA, and just cleared waivers earlier this season. He's much closer to Bencomo's journeyman status than the prospect status of his Rochester rotation mates right now.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting fact: Ron Gardenhire started out 4-0 in postseason game 1's as manager. (And he's still 4-3.) 0-7 in game 2's, and 0-7 in game 3's...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Players can't get more than 1 qualifying offer in their career anymore, per the new CBA. So we couldn't offer one to Lynn.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I might quibble the Morrison has a "good track record" -- he had 3.7 bWAR last season, but he has 1.5 bWAR for the other ~3000 PA of his career. That's like 0.3 WAR per full season, almost the literal definition of replacement player. Morrison's 2017 has earned him all the slack he is getting now -- not his pre-2017 track record.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    So cherry picking mediocre age 25 seasons from the past means what exactly? Still means Sano is mediocre. Do you expect Sano to add significant power to his current game like Dozier, Puckett, and Gaetti did to improve their OPS figures after age 25? Or post a 12.3% career K rate like Mientkiewicz? (I'll ignore Koskie's 35 PA and Gladden's 72 here too.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, "Def" is probably the wrong stat to use for this purpose. It is a counting stat so it punishes Sano for his DL stint and playing 1B/DH. The more proper comparison would be UZR/150. The ranks may still look similar, but it is just best practice. Use the fielding leaderboard, filter by 3B, set a 200 inning minimum to get Sano on the list, and sort by UZR/150. Sano still ranks 32 out of 34, with a -25.7 mark. His career mark is only -3.2, though, so is it small sample or is he getting notably worse? He was at -0.6 last year. All of these are pretty small samples -- Sano only has about 1300 innings at 3B for his career, which is about the equivalent of one full season for a guy like Dozier at 2B. By the same measure, Dozier ranks 19th out of 32 this year. But is very close to average at -1.5 (and only -0.1 for his career).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    What do you think the corresponding move is? Back to 12 pitchers and calling up Cave? Motter? Or swapping Duffey for another reliever like Busenitz?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Not in a box score yet, but the Red Sox have recalled former Twin Justin Haley. He was starting in AAA, but will apparently join Boston's pen for now: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/red-sox-select-contract-of-justin-haley.html
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Realmuto is younger than all of those guys, though. In fact, he just turned 27, and is controlled through age 29. Morrison had a career year at 29, and Mauer and Lucroy were all star catchers through age 30.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if one prefers Realmuto over Sano -- subtracting Sano makes the present team worse, and thus neutralizes much of the gain of acquiring Realmuto in the first place.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, some use the nomenclature "until 2020" to mean the same as "through 2019", although I find it confusing/misleading.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    How does Castro help in 2018? I thought you said we were contenders right now. Keep in mind, Castro is only signed for 2019, and he will be turning 32 and coming off a serious injury (plus a slow start in 2018). How much will he even be able to help then? What should we do about the catcher position for 2020? Doesn't look like that help is coming from the farm. I know we just drafted a guy, but even best case scenario, he's not going to be ready to start at catcher on MLB opening day 2020. Realmuto is a real answer to all 3 of those questions. If you think the price is too high (and it might be), fine, but Castro (and Buxton?) really have nothing to do with it.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    My only concern about JT Realmuto is his initials being too similar to those of JR Murphy. Didn't Murphy switch from initials to "John Ryan" with us, or vice versa? Whatever he did, we should insist that Realmuto do the opposite, as a condition of any trade.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Why not let Realmuto contribute too? Actually, considering that Buxton is physically unable to contribute right now, wouldn't that make Realmuto's contributions even more valuable?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Rumor had it the Marlins were asking for OF Tucker (top 20 prospect) for Realmuto this winter: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/marlins-astros-discussing-j-t-realmuto.html The Nationals inquired about him too, but were unwilling to include either of their top OF prospects, Robles or Soto: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/nationals-pursuing-j-t-realmuto.html
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, a Gordon-led package feels like something the Marlins might accept at the deadline, but probably not in early June. Leading with Lewis could seal it earlier...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    When Lucroy was dealt at the deadline in 2016, he fetched a consensus top-30 guy (OF Brinson) and a top-60 guy (P Ortiz). Of course, Lucroy was packaged with a reliever Jeffress, but also Lucroy was already 30 and had only 1 year of control left after that season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rangers-to-acquire-jonathan-lucroy-2.html Of course, that was only after Lucroy invoked his no-trade clause to block at deal to Cleveland, which would have netted the Brewers a top-40 guy (C Mejia) but no one else ranked in a top 100 list.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Gordon could be close to that. Here are his preseason ranks: BP 30 Sickels 60 Fangraphs 77 MLB 80 BA 93 Plus he's had a great start to the season. But yeah, the second piece in the deal could hurt too. Not sure if Gonsalves would even be enough...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Great post. I've never been really high on Gordon, but I like the way he's come out of the gate this year. I wonder if this would be selling high on him, a bit? Plus we certainly have the financial resources to re-sign Dozier and/or Escobar next winter too.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, May has an option. I suppose they could swap him for Duffey in a few days, although Duffey looked fairly useful yesterday.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Roster Resource is pretty good for that: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ Gordon, Wade, and Tyler Jay are the main guys who will need to be added. A few more relievers could be too (Nick Anderson, Andrew Vasquez).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Escobar has a career 0.00 catcher's ERA. (Coaxed a 1-2-3 inning from Chris Gimenez.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    May's 30 day rehab would end on June 10. However, teams can request an extra 30 days of rehab from the commissioner's office for players recovering from Tommy John surgery, in 10 day increments. So if they go that route, they could postpone the decision to as late as July 10, waiting for May to find his groove and/or an opportunity to open up in Minnesota. An optional assignment could accomplish much the same, of course, and it might come to that anyway.
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