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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Petit already cleared and was outrighted to AAA, per today's radio broadcast.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    In Halladay's case, he had a disastrous 2000 season in MLB and AAA, and he was optioned to A ball to begin the 2001 season, and worked his way back. But it wasn't a midseason demotion.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The 40-man roster is still full, so probably not at this time.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    A modern MLB reliever has to miss some bats. Reed 21 had 5 guys at 0-2 and couldn't strike any of them out! 3 base hits from those guys instead.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll echo the question -- why was Grossman in the outfield protecting a 1 run lead in the 8th? Or in the outfield at all? We have 4 real outfielders on the roster. Also just noticed Grossman struck out to end the top of the 8th. Would have been trivial to replace him at that point.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I absolutely think we could repeat 2006. The 2018 Twins can catch the 2018 Tigers on the last day of the season!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    So what's the reason for keeping those two down?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you want to apply that criteria to all 30 teams?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    This would be a more compelling theory if the Indians didn't repeatedly pass on Belisle over the last month-plus. You're telling me they believed he would bounce back, but couldn't find a way to add him back to their pen during a month when they added and subtracted like 5 other marginal relievers, including the ghost of Alexi Ogando?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Indians cut Belisle to add Ben Taylor to their roster. Taylor is a 25 year old RH reliever with some potential and options remaining. And the Indians cut Belisle only 6 days after placing Miller on the DL, and just a day before moving Salazar to the 60-day DL and placing Nick Goody on the DL too. They DFA'd two other players including another reliever just 2 days later. Belisle wasn't really forced off their roster for reasons other than performance.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I too am skeptical of any hard/precautionary limits. But if you're going to do it, a good example of innings limitations is Lance McCullers in 2015. He started the season with 6 starts in AA, and was kept on modest inning/pitch limits and given ample rest between starts. Then he moved to MLB in mid-May and started regularly the rest of the way, except for a 3-week optional assignment back to AA at the beginning of August, during which time he only made 1 token appearance but otherwise rested. Came back to finish the MLB season fairly strong, and was available to start in the postseason (although the Astros were bounced in the first round, after only one McCullers start). Ultimately, McCullers went from 97 innings in 2014, to 164 in 2015 plus the potential for more in the postseason.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the Tigers probably preferred not to deal Verlander within the division, although presumably that could be overcome with extra cash/prospects. (And of course if Detroit figured he'd be anywhere close to this valuable, they wouldn't have been willing to deal him at all!) Plus the no-trade clause. MLBTR alluded to Verlander waiting for a deal to the Cubs, which is why the Astros deal was only accepted at the last minute. The only way to force him to consider us was claiming him on waivers -- but looking back, Verlander cleared waivers very early, on August 4th. Which is when we were still fading in the wild card race, after just having dealt Kintzler and Garcia at the deadline. With only 48 hours after a claim to make a deal, it seems very doubtful we would have accomplished anything with that claim, except annoying a lot of people (keep in mind the gentlemen's agreement not to claim players in August unless there is actually a chance to finalize a trade). Even if we were willing to trade any and all players/prospects to Detroit, it's highly doubtful that Verlander would have waived his no-trade to go to the Twins as they stood on August 4.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Belisle's 2015 season was so good, he didn't get a MLB contract offer that offseason either. I guess he missed time to injury in 2015, but he was apparently healthy and active to finish the season in September. So the past 3 years, the only MLB team to offer Matt Belisle a MLB contract is the Twins, and we've done it twice. We've also given him the highest base salary ($2.05 guaranteed last year, compared to the $1.5 mil and $1.25 mil non-guaranteed deals he signed with Cleveland and Washington, respectively). The 2015 Cardinals and 2016 Nationals also both declined to put Belisle on their postseason rosters. The 2015 Cardinals chose RHP Maness with a 4.26 ERA (and 6.75 in September) over Belisle and his 2.67. The 2016 Nationals elected to roster rookie Reynaldo Lopez, of the 4.91 ERA and 5 pro career relief appearances, and 3 lefty relievers, including two with ERAs of 4.53 and 4.95, over Belisle and his sterling 1.76 ERA.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Statcast has Grossman with a faster sprint speed than Adrianza, both this year and last year: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=&team=MIN&min=10
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    On a non-Twins level, there was absolutely a national narrative that he wouldn't be worth the price to Houston. I do wonder, though, if the Twins could have changed their narrative by claiming him on waivers, and actually being willing to pony up a prospect package equivalent to Houston's. Would have put a little pressure on Verlander to consider us.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's all assuming they keep rolling with 13 pitchers. Otherwise there is room for LaMarre or Cave as a proper 4th outfielder.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey has thrown 6 scoreless innings across 4 games in MLB since the last time Belisle was a free agent. Was that him showing he was unable to take the heat?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If we don't like any of our AAA relievers -- why do we have so many of them on our 40-man roster? Why didn't we sign Belisle this winter? I guess by waiting, I think Cleveland is on the hook for Belisle's modest salary above the league minimum... so, savings! Although that still would have been the case had we signed him less than a month ago, when he was a free agent for 8 days after Cleveland let him go the first time...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right -- Adrianza was worth about ~1 WAR last year in only 186 PA, and again is ~1 WAR in 149 PA already this year. I wouldn't count on that extrapolating to 500 PA, but he's got room for his offense to falter and still be a perfectly fine bench player. When Polanco returns, I think the Twins might be better off clearing a regular spot for Escobar rather than dropping a bench guy like Adrianza. If Mauer and Sano are both healthy by then, we're really at the point of the season where they could make a move with Grossman or Morrison.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Punto was playing middle infield and putting up some very good defensive numbers throughout, plus a few extra runs by baserunning. 15.4 bWAR, 15.1 fWAR for his career.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If they activate Mauer soon (he just started a rehab assignment for Rochester yesterday), this also means the only move they can really make is sending down LaMarre or Cave (barring another injury in the meantime). So gone is the CF platoon, and say hello to Robbie Grossman, exclusive 4th outfielder again.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    So these guys can't beat out Matt Belisle for the 8th bullpen spot -- but Tampa's going to insist they are included in a major trade? Also, those guys aren't in MLB now and don't require Belisle to replace them on the roster even if they were dealt. Except perhaps as "depth" but it's a really weird way to address depth by adding a 13th pitcher to your roster who doesn't have options.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Busenitz (1.9 BB/9 at Rochester) and Duffey (2.3) need to work on their control? Or we're just going to lump them in with other pitchers who do, for no apparent reason except to justify signing Belisle as our 13th pitcher?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe I was too harsh in my response to this yesterday -- like Arrieta, Belisle is also a former top 100 prospect. Of course, that was back in 2001-2002... On the other hand, Nick Punto upside might be pretty valuable -- remember the Dodgers took on something like $258 mil in guaranteed contracts to acquire him in August 2012!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, this is incorrect/incomplete. - Belisle signed a minor league deal with Cleveland, which was only worth $1.5 mil if he made the team. This is pretty compelling evidence that he failed to get an MLB contract offer this winter. - He was bad in spring training. I don't normally put too much stock in spring training stats, but for a guy on a minor league deal fighting for a job, they should be a useful barometer. 22 hits and 8 runs allowed in 11.1 innings this spring. - Belisle perhaps only made the team due to injuries (Salazar and Merritt were placed on the DL the same day). - Belisle was a mop-up reliever for Cleveland, with a .59 game-entering leverage index, comparable to Rule 5 pick Justin Haley's usage last year. - Belisle was DFA'd about a month into the season, presumably cleared waivers and rejected an assignment to AAA and elected free agency. Then he was a free agent for 8 days before re-signing another minor league deal with Cleveland on May 16. Again, pretty compelling evidence that no one was offering Belisle a MLB deal less than a month ago. - His most recent appearance was also his worst, 5 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning at AAA on June 8. What does this mean? It means the Twins as well as the entire league passed on giving Belisle an MLB deal this offseason, and did so again less than a month ago in mid-May. And his performance to date has largely justified that judgement.
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