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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Austin has big K rates. 40% in MLB this year, 30% at AAA. Too bad he's not a pitcher.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Austin is out of options next spring.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Nah, leave it for future generations to figure out!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Fowler was ranked on BA's midseason top 100 just before the trade, and maybe MLB.com's too? And then on the following offseason BA and BP top 100 lists. Not that it changes your point. A top 30 for Gibson would be nuts, likewise two top 100s.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Rochester was completing a suspended game from June 24, when Cave was still there. He didn't get sent down, but he is still in the final box score.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I see Costello has played mostly first base this year. I'd guess he wasn't much of a third baseman?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you suppose the $75k in the Duke deal came up? Seems like a weird, small number, relative to the total salary.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That is weird. Right now Seattle and New York would play each other in the wild card game. Very strange that NY would send SEA a competent reliever...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, he was a possible throw-in. Now: we got him! Maybe we can trade him *with* Dozier!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    De Jong has been traded a few times already. Another low upside AAA starter on the 40-man roster, not sure what they plan on doing with him. Maybe we just took him to open a spot on Seattle's 40-man. Costello was a 31st round pick last year. 1B/3B.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It depends on the market too. Cozart was the only good shortstop on the market. (Why the Angels paid him that much to play third base, we may never know). Practically the only good middle infielder too. The next biggest contract for any middle infielder was Nunez. Then Neil Walker. 3B was better with Frazier and Moustakas, but neither of them did very well either. This year, obviously there is Machado, then Escobar, Lowrie, Asrubal Cabrera, Donaldson, LeMahieu, Moustakas again, Dozier, plus still a few more guys who could be useful - Murphy, Kinsler, Hechavarria, Iglesias.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the trades did leave them short-handed for the Friday night game. Rosario ably manned the hot corner, but we also had to turn to Belisle who has been absolutely owned by the Red Sox the past 2 seasons (I assume Rodney had the 9th either way, although you could make a case for a different pitcher after Rodney's previous night experience). Then on Saturday we turned to Moya/Magill in an unusual spot (mainly just pitching in a MLB game ). It certainly could have turned out the same in Boston either way, but it would have been fun to see at "full strength". Arm chair manager, but a win Friday and I may have felt the freedom to start Mejia on Sunday and give Berrios an extra day rest and the assignment to open our Cleveland series.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That's great stuff. I'll bow out of this thread now, seems like a high point.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think God actually put the trade deadline on June 15th. It was prophet Peter Ueberroth who moved it to July 31.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    My bad! I somehow looked at the post above yours. I am getting quoted a lot right now. I'm not really that quotable though! Feel free to read it as "I already know the odds were ~7-8%" if you want. Obviously there is no one figure we can distill this down to, there are plenty of subjective factors too. If we had identical odds and had just lost a Francisco Liriano circa 2006, I'd probably be all about the sell too. What I meant, knowing everything we know.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm confused. I didn't try to justify any point by the 25% figure. I already made my point, clearly and repeatedly, before that. I leaned toward going for it, knowing everything we know including the 8% (and 1.6% and 12.5% ). Someone else posited that our odds might still be 5-6% after the trades, which I disagreed with. I also pointed out that a $2 pay cut is a bigger deal to someone making $8 an hour, as compared to someone making $50 an hour. You can ignore that statement if you like, as it has nothing to do with my point at all. I think the call was close. If we were a couple games closer, or a couple games further back, I think it would have been much clearer. That's kind of the definition of gray area where multiple reasonable opinions can exist. I don't necessarily fault the front office for making this call, although I am a little disappointed as a fan, that's all. Since you are still participating here, though, I am still curious if you are willing to answer the questions I asked you repeatedly upthread: "what odds do you put on your scenario (these 5 prospects contributing significantly to a future "great season" where we are postseason favorites)? And what are the underlying numbers you would use to arrive at that figure?"
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not trying to ignore it. I try to reference it where possible. I didn't reference any numbers at all in the post you quoted there. You can split the difference between 1.6% and 8.4% and 12.%, and I don't think it changes my point. The average of those 3 is 7.5% and it has been trending up since Polanco's return, I am more than happy to use that as the prevailing figure if you'd like.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I admit, 8-12% isn't high. (8.4% Fangraphs season to date projection mode, 12.5% Fangraphs coin flip mode -- obviously if you fully buy the 1.6% figure that's a different story, but I don't even know if Fangraphs buys that fully) But what chances do you put on these four or five additional 40 FV prospects contributing meaningfully to a better Twins team down the line? I'm open to being shown otherwise, but I don't think it's going to clear 8-12% by all that much. Then doesn't that really reduce this to a matter of preference and gut feeling?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    It's the general concept of a person with less, having more to lose than an "equal" sacrifice by someone with more. I don't know if that's controversial. I already know the odds were 8%-12%, with a lot riding on our head-to-head games with Cleveland, and I kinda wanted to take our best shot at it with our current team. It doesn't really comfort me to say "hey, our odds only dropped by X%" -- that's no longer taking the best shot with our current team. I know you and others disagree, and that's fine, but I think it's a valid opinion and I'm not trying to misrepresent any numbers or impacts.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I see you are still active in thread, just curious if you any plans to address this post of mine? http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30781-article-dear-twins-dont-sell/?p=777956 "what odds do you put on your scenario (these 5 prospects contributing significantly to a future "great season" where we are postseason favorites)? And what are the underlying numbers you would use to arrive at that figure?"
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you might be overrating how much these prospects will buy. Likely not Realmuto or anything on that level. Maybe on the level of Odorizzi, Garcia, or obviously guys like Escobar or Pressly. Then again, we already have a deep system of 40 FV prospects, so we could probably have made those moves if they presented themselves even without these 5 additional prospects. Gives us a little better depth to manage it, certainly, but the tangible benefit of that level of is pretty low. There are diminishing returns to stockpiling that level of prospect.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    But that isn't apples to apples. What if they turn into a good player on a team like the 2018 Twins, or worse? The odds of them contributing meaningfully to a team better than the 2018 Twins are probably pretty comparable to some estimates of our 2018 chances. Nothing against the prospects -- I like them, they are fair returns -- it's just really hard to predict the future.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Hughes trade saved us $7 mil on 2019 payroll, that's not a lot but I wouldn't call it "neutral" for the organization. And so far the trade doesn't seem to have had anything to do with acquiring talent or assets, the catcher is 21 years old and still in rookie leagues.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That catcher is 21 years old and repeating rookie league ball for the 3rd straight season. No guarantees, but the draft pick would probably have been better for the farm system. Not that I necessarily minded the trade, although it does put payroll in the spotlight a bit.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for noticing! There are a few ways to look at it for sure. The Rays have sold (mainly Eovaldi, also a minor move in Venters), and they had comparable "season to date" projection odds as the Twins. But, they had far worse "coin flip" odds, meaning they really had very little control over their own destiny. (I mean, every team needs luck to complete a comeback, but low "coin flip" odds suggests even more luck is necessary.) But otherwise, the teams in comparable "season to date" projection mode odds, or "coin flip" mode odds, have resisted selling so far -- Cardinals (who made some moves but didn't really sell), Pirates, Giants. The Blue Jays and Mets sold, but they had 0.1% odds by pretty much every measure. The Angels did a "soft sell" with a rental catcher, but they had at best 4.4% odds by season to date mode, and like the Rays needed a lot of luck with 1.4% coin flip odds. (See my post above if you have questions about the different projection modes.)
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