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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the value of a win (1 WAR) on the open market. Kepler is not on the open market, and won't be for some time. Every team is getting "steals" and "incredible" values from pre-FA players by this measure. That said, it's a good contract for the Twins. It adds 1-3 seasons of control at reasonable cost, which not only has the potential of value as a player, but also extends his value as a potential trade asset too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Vlad Jr. turns 20 before the season starts in March. (Although he probably could have performed pretty well last year too.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Blue Jays can keep him under 1 year service time by calling him up as early as April 12. (There are 171 days from April 12 through their final scheduled game of 2019 on Sep. 29. And a player needs 172 days for a full year of service time.) The Blue Jays don't visit Target Field until April 15-18. So we could see Vlad Jr. for that series, barring injury, if the Jays give him the Kris Bryant treatment.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so. I mean, I don't think players can use the "arb1" salaries from guys like Jose Abreu or Masahiro Tanaka as comps without context in arbitration. Or if a pitcher signs a contract like Pineda's, with a low first year salary due to rehab and a higher second year salary, I don't think those salaries can be used without context either. I suspect the system allows enough discretion to avoid that.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Gordon's not necessarily out. This contract could make Polanco a much more attractive trade asset down the line. Obviously, we'd all love for Polanco to do well and become a permanent fixture in Minnesota too, but if Gordon and Lewis force the issue, we could eventually flip Polanco for, say, a young pitcher down the road. Like Jean Segura and his contract was flipped for Taijuan Walker, etc.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, he's declining (aren't we all?). But Lester has already given the Cubs 13.7 fWAR, 12.4 bWAR, and 70 IP of 2.44 ERA in the postseason. I'd say Lester has pretty much earned his full contract already too ($155 mil) with 2 years to go, even if not to the degree the Scherzer has.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To the poster's original question, though, I don't think Howe will be appearing in person. Maybe by medium? Or Skype?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I can't believe I am doing this, but here goes: https://twitter.com/LaVelleNeal/status/1095818915563880448?s=20 Tweet transcript: Question: "@LaVelleNeal Could you help settle a sports bet? Would you say that Terry Ryan was "in charge" of international free agency for the Twins during the Bill Smith era (2008-2011)?" LaVelle: "No. Sano, Kepler and Polanco were on Smith’s watch"
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess that it is far more likely that LaVelle was misinterpreted. You're the only person on this forum who has claimed that TR was in charge of IFA for the Twins from 2007-2011. I'd say the onus is on you to provide any evidence for this claim beyond your own memory.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, and it probably works for a really small market team like Tampa. But players that are talented enough to earn these big contracts are scarce enough that, for most clubs (including the Twins), you shouldn't really close off any avenue to acquire them.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Although if we agree that Mauer probably gets a comparable amount after 2010 anyway, then it's probably fair to use it a comp for current FA contracts. I think the larger issue is that, had Mauer been coming from another organization, the Twins probably wouldn't have offered him anywhere close to 8/184 after 2010. I think that's just the organizational mindset that's still in play today -- not going to take that risk without the "hometown/homegrown star" safety net. I don't like it, but if we want to see the Twins make a comparable outlay again, we probably have to wait and hope that Berrios or Lewis or Kirilloff earns it (although that's darn hard to do!).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer could have made more elsewhere coming off his 2009 season, when he got that extension -- but he wasn't a FA after 2009. I doubt that Mauer would have gotten more than 8/184 elsewhere if hit FA as scheduled after the 2010 season (which was still very good -- but not quite in the stratosphere of 2009). Not that it was a bad deal for the Twins or anything -- the Twins paid a little extra for the new potential of 2009, but saved a little bit by guaranteeing it a year before he hit FA -- with the two factors basically canceling each other out. I think Mauer could have just as easily re-signed here as a FA after 2010 for 8/184 and we wouldn't notice any kind of "butterfly effect" in the universe.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if you don't think there's a big difference between 26 and 29 (and I think 3 prime years is pretty big), there's simply a huge difference between being on the market now, and being on the market 3 from now, for any player. Just from the uncertainty about what can happen in the intervening 3 years. Right now, Machado and Harper are both healthy. No guarantee they are still this healthy in 3 years. Machado in particular seems unlikely to be coming off a better performance than his 2018 season (~6 WAR). And defensively, 3 years can mean a lot -- Machado and Harper may be barely acceptable for SS and CF duty already at 26, and they almost certainly won't be by age 29 (Harper in particular may be getting moved to 1B by then, if he repeats his 2018 defensive metrics). I could see a one-year deal making some sense for Harper, if large offers aren't forthcoming right now -- it would give him a chance to correct those defensive metrics, maybe even have another of his high BABIP seasons to improve his batting line. But a 3 year deal would probably be an unwise decision for him -- not only because it's essentially trading his age 26-28 seasons for 3 seasons in his mid-30's, but also because he could easily see his defense and hitting improve but then regress over a 3 year period. 3 year deals are generally pretty bad, from a player's perspective, about maximizing value.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know why you'd say that is the premise behind analytics. Terry Ryan had the same premise, without analytics, and we moved on from him. The premise behind analytics could just as well be to identify smart risks to take. Also, everyone focuses on the extremes of Buxton and Sano -- but we actually have a pretty stable core right now. By definition, it would be hard for a young team to average 82 wins these past two seasons without a stable core. Berrios and Gibson look like 3-4 WAR SP for 2019, and Berrios has 4 years of control left. Rosario, Kepler, and Polanco all look like steady 3 WAR players, each with 4 years of control too. A couple elite prospects not far away too. Look like Fangraphs projects us to 83 wins, with only 2 WAR each from Buxton and Sano. We don't need to wait until we're projected for 90 wins, or at 90 wins, to supplement with significant external talent. (You are correct that this front office might wait until that point, and might not land a player then anyway -- but that doesn't mean it's right.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Scherzer is only in the middle of his deal, but we can safely conclude that it has worked out -- you can remove the "so far" qualifier. He's already at 29 bWAR, which is a fine return on his $210 mil deal (actually only $191 mil in "present day value" considering deferred money). From the Mariners perspective, Cano's deal has pretty much worked too -- 24 bWAR for $140-176 mil (depending on how you value the other pieces of that trade). There are certainly long term deals that have gone bust, but it's not as if average or good ones are rare. From the same offseason as Scherzer, Lester was the only other $100+ mil FA deal and it has gone well. The Cano offseason also featured Tanaka (gone well) as well as the less impressive Ellsbury and Choo deals (although Ellsbury did manage 10 WAR in his first 4 seasons). The 2012-2013 offseason saw Greinke (good) and Josh Hamilton (bad). Clubs like the Twins can't rely on these kind of FA too much, of course, but they also shouldn't close the door on the possibility too much either.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Unfortunately, Oakland's single playoff series win since 1990 was also against the Twins, so I think they officially cancel each other out and both should consider their postseason losing streaks intact.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe Dan Gladden and Steve Lombardozzi will be leading a workshop on conflict resolution.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct -- Terry Ryan was officially a "special assistant" to the GM during the Bill Smith years. It's possible he was involved in certain things behind the scenes, although it is doubtful that was "in charge" of IFA with that title. It's also possible TR wasn't involved much at all during that time -- the Twins re-hire basically everyone as a special assistant at some point: Gardy, Cuddy, Morneau, Kaat, etc. Probably just to coach at spring training and/or officially represent the club at different functions. Bill Smith was re-hired as a special assistant too after his GM stint, focusing on the facilities in Ft. Myers and in the Dominican. I haven't heard of any of these special assistants being in charge of any player personnel decisions, though.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    On radio, yes. But not much on TV. As of 2014, "a Mariners game will occasionally be simulcast on Sportsnet Pacific but not enough to make it a consistent viewing habit." http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/eh-game/vancouver-s-mlb-debate--toronto-blue-jays-or-seattle-mariners-073118544.html All of Canada is considered Blue Jays territory. But, the Blue Jays elect not to enforce any MLB.TV blackouts, so fans in Vancouver can simply watch every Mariners game on MLB.TV. Here's a tweet from the Mariners TV network (Root Sports Northwest) actually advising Canadian viewers to watch on MLB.TV in 2018 (and also showing pitcher James Paxton being visited by an eagle at Target Field):
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, I've not been able to find any cite for this claim at all. And there was quite extensive reporting about how the Twins landed Miguel Sano in 2009 (as well as Kepler and Polanco that same year) -- and none of those reports even mention Terry Ryan. I don't doubt that you believe you heard or read this from LaVelle, but I think it's very likely that LaVelle was either incorrect or misinterpreted.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't understand this argument, in the context of not trying to add significant external talent this offseason. This was a 78 win team last season, and 85 the year before. Regardless of what the young core does, adding 3-4-5 WAR players right now could be huge to this team's fate. If this was a club like the 2012 Twins, or the current Marlins or whatever -- I understand. Adding a 5 WAR player might get those teams out of last place, but the odds are still very low that it helps them to the postseason. But the 2019 Twins aren't the Marlins, or the 2012 Twins. The 2019 Twins are absolutely in a position where they need to strongly consider all methods of adding external talent to the MLB roster right now.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Would it? Harper reportedly already turned down 10/300. Machado is apparently sitting on a 8/250 offer from the White Sox. And the moment Harper or Machado shows a willingness to sign for only 2-3 years, I bet they would get a ton of offers -- the Twins offer might be one of 20 from which they can choose. Heck, Philadelphia might sign both of them at those terms. (Also, there's a huge difference between being on the market at 26 and healthy/effective, versus hitting the market at 29 under unknown future circumstances. I understand why the players would be hesitant to sign a short term deal right now.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    While Harper was raising his average late in the season, he still had a .235 isolated power in August and a .224 ISO in September. Mauer only once had a full season ISO close to that, and that was his incredible 2009 (which still fell short at .222). Yes, Harper had 18 HR in April/May -- but he also had only 6 other extra base hits those months, for a total of 24 XBH. In August/September, Harper recorded 26 total XBH (17 2B, 9 HR). There's not really a case that his overall offensive performance was notably weaker late in the 2018 season as opposed to early in the season.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The league non-pitcher batting average was down to .252 last year. It hasn't been that low since 1968 -- the year Yastrzemski won the AL batting title at .301. In fact, 1968 (.245), 1908 (.246), and 1967 (.251) are the only 3 seasons in MLB history after 1900 with a lower non-pitcher batting average than 2018. Killebrew had a below average AVG in 1962 too, his age 26 season. Would you have advised a team not to sign Killebrew after that season? Overall he still had a 138 OPS+ that year. Harper last year was 25 years old, and had a 133 OPS+ despite his slightly below average AVG.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Apparently Washington already offered Harper a 10 year deal (10 years, $300 mil), although it's allegedly no longer on the table. The White Sox have reportedly offered Machado 8/250. I think teams might be done giving out 10 year deals for 32 year old first basemen like Pujols. But 8-10 year deals could still make sense for some 26 year old infielders and outfielders, which could include Machado and Harper. I think both Harper and Machado wanted to exceed Stanton's $325 mil contract (and/or wanted to land somewhere other than in Washington or especially with the White Sox). It will be interesting to see what they settle for.
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