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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, it's been going down every year for the past 10 years, so that rate may improve further. But without any clue about their magnitude, I'm not sure the raw percentage of "errors" is that meaningful anyway. I mean, some percentage of pitches are going to be right on the edge. (Maybe a significant percentage, if pitchers are aiming there.) Umpire "errors" on that edge, as compared to Statcast, are going to be virtually imperceptible to the human eye (if they are even umpire errors at all -- they could be Statcast calibration/measurement errors). Why would you care if Statcast thinks a pitch is 2 microns outside, and the umpire calls it a strike? Hypothetically, if those edge cases made up half of the "errors", then you're really looking at a meaningful error rate of 4.6%. Is that still too high? (Keep in mind, these "error rates" are just among called pitches. 46.6% of pitches were swung at last year and thus did not require a call and are excluded from these percentages. If you are considering total pitches, you'll want to cut these error rates in half.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Garver at leadoff, Cave in for Kepler, Astudillo back at 3B: https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/starting-lineups 1. Mitch Garver (R) C 2. Jorge Polanco (S) SS 3. Nelson Cruz (R) DH 4. Eddie Rosario (L) LF 5. C.J. Cron (R) 1B 6. Willians Astudillo (R) 3B 7. Jake Cave (L) RF 8. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B 9. Byron Buxton (R) CF
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    True. Magill is apparently going to AAA for a rehab assignment right now, and is out of options. I guess we could swap him for Harper or Vasquez at the bottom of the pen, but I can't imagine making a major roster move to fit him in. I could see Magill DFA'd instead, if there's no one we want to remove. Moya will start his rehab this week, but he also has options remaining. Reed still seems a bit further off: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-gabriel-moya-rehab-assignment-begins-next-week/
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, keep in mind, when looking at 2019 payroll, that we willingly front-loaded Kepler and Polanco by about $6 mil this year. Not that there's anything wrong with that strategy, but I think it makes it a little easier / more understandable to wind up a little over-budget, if we see an opportunity to add talent to what looks like a competitive squad.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, I listed some minor leaguers, but I wasn't necessarily counting on them within the next year. I don't think that's the gap in our thinking. I think the gap is that you're speaking pretty vaguely, perhaps over-estimating the salary increases coming to a guy like Rogers, and after missing Reed entirely in your initial post, you're now missing the Reed-Kimbrel connection -- if we "need to invest in a BP arm or two" to replace Reed, thus not freeing his $8.5 mil salary, why not count that toward sign Kimbrel? If he's really available for 3/45. We can capture some 2019 benefit too, and we'd have him off the books by the end of 2021, making it easier to sign/extend others with a little backloading if we wanted to do so.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    No need. They can either start using the relief arms they have (Harper and Mejia) or they can start swapping fresh pitchers through those spots as needed (Harper's spot, I guess, since he has options).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The 20% number isn't an overall error rate. I think it's just the error rate for a subset of pitches when the batter has a two-strike count ("two strike bias"). Here's a link to the actual study findings, rather than a media report about it: https://www.bu.edu/today/2019/mlb-umpires-strike-zone-accuracy/ See point #5 "Bad call ratio by year". The overall error rate was only 9.21% last year, and it has improved every year since 2008. So perhaps PitchF/X and Statcast are helping human umpires improve? I'd like to see the results weighted by egregiousness of the bad calls, rather than a binary good/bad. If a pitch is 2 microns outside the Statcast strike zone, I really don't care if a human calls it a strike where a machine would call it a ball -- my eyes couldn't perceive the difference anyway. The summary says the Statcast measurement margin of error is claimed to be within one inch -- how many of these "bad calls" were within that?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean, his two starts in a row?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It's tricky. I generally hate big money contracts for relievers, but it's hard to deny that a few have been really good -- Andrew Miller at 4/36, for instance, and he was fantastic through age 32. There are a few red flags about Kimbrel -- going unsigned this long, obviously, and his BB rate last year (already reflected in his FIP/fWAR), his rough 2018 postseason -- but there's also some real potential there too. Potential that the Twins could use immediately, and risk that wouldn't break the Twins on a Britton/Davis type contract. Same with Keuchel as a starter, I guess, subbing his contact/groundball style for the more generic reliever concerns. Looking ahead, I think the Twins could be fortunate to land those kinds of players as rentals at the 2019 deadline. So it stands to reason we'd probably be equally fortunate to land them in April 2019, with virtually zero prospect cost, in exchange for extra cash (which comes along with their 2020-2021 services too).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    So did the Twins screw up when they disagreed with the 29 GMs who felt that the cost and risk associated with Marwin Gonzalez could be better placed elsewhere? This isn't a good line of argument. To the extent that teams have passed on Kimbrel to date, that was primarily when Kimbrel was still asking for $100 mil. And some of those teams moved on at that point to invest in other significant pitchers. 30 GMs haven't really passed on Kimbrel at 3/45. Same for Keuchel. And of course, for BOS, NYY, CHC, LAD, and WAS, 3/45 would still cost more than 3/45 due to luxury tax penalties. (And NYM, HOU, PHI, and LAA would be right up against the luxury tax threshold after signing that contract, potentially putting them over at the trade deadline.) Beyond that, there's also a lot of teams that Kimbrel and Keuchel don't want to sign with, regardless of their willingness to offer 3/45. I know the Twins have some limitations in terms of revenue, but we also have a few competitive advantages right now.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Then signing Keuchel at 3/45 now could be considered offsetting the anticipated loss/replacement of Odorizzi. That AAV is only $5.5 mil more than Odorizzi's current salary. Or signing Kimbrel at 3/45 now could be considered offsetting the anticipated loss/replacement of Reed. That AAV is only $6.5 mil more than Reed's current salary.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Nice try, but that doesn't just limit us to Odorizzi's. Gibson and Pineda probably won't cost more than $25 mil combined either, even if they have solid 2019 seasons. What do you mean by "decent bump"? I feel like your vagueness is exaggerating the effect of these raises. Judging by the history of middle relievers in arbitration, I think Rogers is pretty much capped at $3 mil next year even if he's one of the best relievers in baseball, unless he gets some saves soon. Which would be a $1.5 mil bump over 2019, but isn't going to change the calculus much here.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Here's a list of upcoming free agents (note that it hasn't been updated since February, so extension guys like Goldschmidt, Bogaerts, Sale, Milokas, etc. still need to be taken off the list): https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-2020-free-agents/ I guess we'd love to sign Rendon or Cole -- but even if they make it to FA, they're not just asking for a high AAV (and likely higher than Kimbrel or Keuchel), they're asking 6+ years too. And they likely have a bunch of teams bidding on them at those prices, including their current teams, and would seem to have no particular reason to prefer coming to Minnesota. After that, there's Bumgarner, I suppose, but not a lot else that strikes me as a better investment than Kimbrel or Keuchel if they are sign-able at around 3/45 right now.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Based on his K% and GB% last year, Keuchel got ~40% of his outs on the ground, and obviously it would be smaller just looking at the left side of the infield. Berrios was ~28%. That difference is like 2 ground ball outs per game (again, total, not just left side). Keuchel and Berrios had basically the same ERA/FIP/xFIP last year, so it's not like Houston was gobbling up balls in play for Keuchel at a significantly greater success rate than the Twins for Berrios either. And there's no rule you have to play Sano at 3B, particularly not when Keuchel starts and when Cron is your regular 1B.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? Notably better in the very near future? Can you cite any names? Keep in mind, while there may be some interesting names slated for FA next winter, it's not just a matter of cost -- there's also availability. There's no guarantee those guys will even hit FA or that we will be the top/preferred bidder (or frankly that they'll still be productive/healthy by then). Also, there's the matter of 2019. 2019 is shaping up to be a bit of an opportunity year for the Twins, with Cleveland suffering some bad luck right now. Planning to sign a guy this coming offseason won't help for 2019. Even waiting for the 2019 trade deadline (again, no guarantee that guys will be available or that you'll be able to land them), any deadline deals will only give us 2 months benefit, as opposed to 5 months right now. (Not to mention the prospect cost in deadline trades, as opposed to just cash -- you're probably not getting a reliever with ~3 WAR upside for less than a top prospect at the deadline.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure your numbers add up here. In the current market, it seems doubtful that it will cost more than $25 mil AAV to sign two starters of the Odorizzi/Gibson/Pineda mold. As middle relievers, Rogers and May will probably get relatively modest raises in arbitration. Parker too. Maybe a mil or two each, at most? Berrios, Rosario, Buxton, and Sano could get larger raises, but that group probably won't go up by more than $10 mil or so collectively in 2020. I'm not sure where you're looking, but Polanco's 2020 salary is identical to 2019, and Kepler only goes up by $250k. Assuming we pick up Cruz's option, in addition to potential SP savings, we'll also be shedding Reed ($8.5 mil), Castro ($8), Schoop ($7.5), Perez ($4 with buyout). Cron might not be worth tendering coming off $4.8 mil either. Plus reinforcements like Romero, Gordon, Kirilloff, Lewis, Graterol, Alcala, Jax, Rooker, etc. in the high minors, we'll be looking to break in a lot of cheap internal options too, so we don't necessarily need to sign FA replacements for all of those departures. I'm not saying we'll have tons of money to play with, but it doesn't seem like we will be too limited either.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Morrison is technically off the books already, it was just a $1 mil option buyout. It probably should be considered part of the ledger for 2018, but I understand a few sources report it for 2019.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's by fWAR. Of course, that one season was a whopping 3.2 fWAR, and it was as recent as 2017. And he's never been below 1.2 fWAR which is a pretty solid floor for a reliever. By bWAR, he was still at 2.3 last year, and 3.6 in 2017. He's not getting younger, obviously, but he only turns 31 next month, so it's possible that 1.2 fWAR floor / 3.2 fWAR ceiling is still in play for a couple more years.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    This fan blog makes the case that they could call him up to debut on the road: https://calltothepen.com/2019/04/14/toronto-blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-jr-still-in-aaa-even-with-the-extra-year-of-control/ But it seems like time is running out on a Minneapolis debut...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not necessarily endorsing Kimbrel at that price, but his career seems closer to spectacular than solid, no?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder how meaningful that is -- ERA on zero days rest. For a middle reliever especially, it seems like it would have a bit of bias toward facing good hitting teams -- generally speaking, that a team would need to use the same middle reliever on consecutive days suggests the other team was hitting pretty well! (There are other circumstances too, of course.) Not that I wouldn't expect some performance drop-off, but it might be hard to tease out the real magnitude of that drop-off, from all the noise.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's Jared Hughes. Phil was released by the Padres last August and has not played anywhere since. 2019 is the last year of his contract, split between the Twins and Padres.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    3 hits, no less. When it rains, it pours!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Ken Rosenthal on Twitter: "Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel continues to seek a deal he believes to be fair and in the range of two recent free-agent relievers, Wade Davis (3 years, $52M) and Zack Britton (3/$39M), sources tell The Athletic."
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Will it? I'm never too eager to roster another marginal corner player without a useful place on the MLB roster. Hopefully. But you'll probably be helping the squad with guys like Dozier, Lynn, etc. We probably would have had equivalent expendable assets available to swing those type of deals regardless of what we did at the 2018 deadline.
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